Tempted to buy more UNFI with this dip
Stock Markets
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Last: 19 hrs ago by Heineken-Ashi
Heineken-Ashi said:
CXM $100M share buyback. I entered yesterday on the dip down. Plenty of time still. Stop is $10.90
Are you still looking at a minimum $16.70 target and possible high target of $25 per your original post?
Nothing has changed from the original post.joekm3 said:Heineken-Ashi said:
CXM $100M share buyback. I entered yesterday on the dip down. Plenty of time still. Stop is $10.90
Are you still looking at a minimum $16.70 target and possible high target of $25 per your original post?
Add DOW to the list. Buying between $51 and $53 with stop at $50.50. $47.25 is a deeper stop with more risk if you want it. This is likely a longer play than one year, and not usually a fast mover. But our first target is $61.86 weekly gap fill with $66 range taking out the higher daily gap near the previous top. $70-$75 would be a higher target that I wouldn't expect to print this year, but is certainly possible. As always the stop is important. If this were to fall and take out its previous low, the lower end target would likely be $40. This isn't the most lucrative play being that our top gap fill would only net 25% ROI. But the nature of the moves will likely provide put selling and call selling opportunities to raise the total return to 30%+. And we're close enought to the stop when we enter that our risk is less than 5% which is what I like the most.
Running list
OXY - Energy - O&G
SMCI - Tech - Hardware
AMD - Tech - Semiconductor
CRM - Tech - Software
CXM - Tech - Software
TLT - 20+ Year Treasury ETF
NOV - Energy - Equipment and Technology
TSLA - Consumer Discretionary - EV
TSN - Consumer Staples - Food
WHD - Energy - Equipment sales and rentals
UNFI - Consumer Satples - Distributor
MLCO - Consumer Discretionary - Gaming & Hospitality
DOW - Materials - Chemical
Running list
OXY - Energy - O&G
SMCI - Tech - Hardware
AMD - Tech - Semiconductor
CRM - Tech - Software
CXM - Tech - Software
TLT - 20+ Year Treasury ETF
NOV - Energy - Equipment and Technology
TSLA - Consumer Discretionary - EV
TSN - Consumer Staples - Food
WHD - Energy - Equipment sales and rentals
UNFI - Consumer Satples - Distributor
MLCO - Consumer Discretionary - Gaming & Hospitality
DOW - Materials - Chemical
One I'm putting on a waiting list.. MTCH. Absolutely shredded for two years, rightfully so. But volume inflows at the October bottom were huge, not quite as high of a spike as the outflow at the top, but pretty close on a multi-week outlook. If that's not a bottom, then its at least very close. A retracement back up would at least double your money. But I'm waiting for $30-$34. If that happens, this will be on the list with a stop just below entry in the low $30's and first target of $49 cup fill and second target of $55 slightly bigger cup. 200 weekly EMA doesn't come until likely $60-$65 range.
So this would be a retracement play. Watch it closely.
So this would be a retracement play. Watch it closely.
If we get lucky enough to see APA hit $31-$32 we are going to buy with ferocity as that would complete a 1.5+ year bull flag likely leading to $60+ within 2 years.
Like I've said, a lot of energy stocks are going to turn very bullish soon. Some people got ahead of themselves last year as the sector just kind of ping ponged up and down. But so many charts are starting to look really good. OXY is obviously on our list. It will tough to pinpoint the expected best performers, and you might even just be able to throw a dart and make bank.
I've got Crude coming down to $61. Don't think we see anything take off until Crude either gets there and reverses or it breaks above $80 with authority.
Like I've said, a lot of energy stocks are going to turn very bullish soon. Some people got ahead of themselves last year as the sector just kind of ping ponged up and down. But so many charts are starting to look really good. OXY is obviously on our list. It will tough to pinpoint the expected best performers, and you might even just be able to throw a dart and make bank.
I've got Crude coming down to $61. Don't think we see anything take off until Crude either gets there and reverses or it breaks above $80 with authority.
UNFI with a 6% dip today
Been holding OXY for 6 months and it's like watching paint dry. I was able to trade XOM a few times last year for gains. Haven't lost hope in OXY, but he's definitely annoying me.Heineken-Ashi said:
Like I've said, a lot of energy stocks are going to turn very bullish soon. Some people got ahead of themselves last year as the sector just kind of ping ponged up and down. But so many charts are starting to look really good. OXY is obviously on our list. It will tough to pinpoint the expected best performers, and you might even just be able to throw a dart and make bank.
We were hoping for a better entry to limit risk if it were to fall. Look at the daily volume though. 12M+ volume on 12/15/23. Highest since May 13, 2020. Both of those spikes were in build ups coming off lows. Less than 1M on 11 of the 12 days since. And today brought analyst downgrades with only 740k volume. I'm hoping for another decent volume spike to end this downtrend in the coming days or weeks and hope it comes with price in the $14's. That will trigger entry for me.El_duderino said:
UNFI with a 6% dip today
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Made money 3 days in a row, good start to the year! I probably shouldn't trade tomorrow. My biggest miss today was 25 minutes to close bought spxw 4700p for 125, sold 13 minutes later for 220 but that was just the start of the big drop, another minute or two it was 900, closed around 1100
I'm starting to think there's merit to this revisiting 450 silliness, looks like we could build a bigol h&s back to the beginning of November. 450 would be about neckline
I'm starting to think there's merit to this revisiting 450 silliness, looks like we could build a bigol h&s back to the beginning of November. 450 would be about neckline
Yeah I noticed that. Hopped in just above $16 and then again at the dip today. Should have exercised more patience, but I'm comfortable with the risk/reward.
AMD getting closer to entry though.
AMD getting closer to entry though.
Are you just scalping 0DTE options on that?
ASO makes the list. I think it will hit between $80-$90 by end of year. While that's a ~$20 per share gain from here, ideally, I'd like to be able to grab it between $50 and $55 which is where the daily and weekly 50, 100, and 200 MA's are. Revenue and EPS has been down Y/Y each of the last 4 quarters. Expectations for Q4 coming in January are pretty high for both. Wouldn't surprise me to see a slight miss while still showing improvement over 2022.
Running list
OXY - Energy - O&G
SMCI - Tech - Hardware
AMD - Tech - Semiconductor
CRM - Tech - Software
CXM - Tech - Software
TLT - 20+ Year Treasury ETF
NOV - Energy - Equipment and Technology
TSLA - Consumer Discretionary - EV
TSN - Consumer Staples - Food
WHD - Energy - Equipment sales and rentals
UNFI - Consumer Staples - Distributor
MLCO - Consumer Discretionary - Gaming & Hospitality
DOW - Materials - Chemical
ASO - Consumer Discretionary - Retail
Running list
OXY - Energy - O&G
SMCI - Tech - Hardware
AMD - Tech - Semiconductor
CRM - Tech - Software
CXM - Tech - Software
TLT - 20+ Year Treasury ETF
NOV - Energy - Equipment and Technology
TSLA - Consumer Discretionary - EV
TSN - Consumer Staples - Food
WHD - Energy - Equipment sales and rentals
UNFI - Consumer Staples - Distributor
MLCO - Consumer Discretionary - Gaming & Hospitality
DOW - Materials - Chemical
ASO - Consumer Discretionary - Retail
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Yep expiring $spx.x options on td
HRTG is on my list. Bumping up against a consistent line of support. RSI hovering at 35 and MACD just turned bullish. They recently closed an offering, which makes me hesitant. Still, I plan to get in now, with a stop at ~6.00 and a target north of 8.
TSLA daily 8 EMA has crossed the 21 and is flirting with the 34. I'm hoping for further downside and price to hit $225. That's a huge pivot zone and will be my buy zone with target of $340.
Any thoughts on what to do with SAVAW that were issued as a special dividend? I have no experience with warrants and how they work. I understand these will expire in Nov 2024 unless SAVA buys them back before then.
I am in the same boat on the SAVAW.
frankm01 said:
Any thoughts on what to do with SAVAW that were issued as a special dividend? I have no experience with warrants and how they work. I understand these will expire in Nov 2024 unless SAVA buys them back before then.
Their guidance on this says you have until November 15, 2024, or they could be redeemed by the company on or after April 15, 2024, with 20 days notice.
Feels like the play is to hold and wait to see if there's news between now and April, or if they announce a redemption date with the 20 days notice, then will have to make a call.
puke into close???
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I feel like there's a tiny chance we could run $5 and finish the first week of the year green. I threw $20 at a spx 4710 call just in case, but I'd be happy if we stay right here and my xsp flys (468 pin 1 and 2 wide) pay
I've looked at every single utility sector stock in the S&P. I can't find one that would be low risk high reward even with some corrections into a buy zone. Reward just isn't there, and the sector looks bound for another rough year barring some significant strength soon. I really want the list to be balanced but I'm still seeing real estate, financials, and utilities with a lot of weakness potentially ahead. I can't justify going long in those sectors, especially at current levels.
I am watching O very closely. I've had a buy target between $35 and $40 for months. Every time it's dipped, opportunistic divvy boys have bought it up on the false promise of high dividends at lower valuation, not realizing that dividends are likely to start getting slashed across a broad range of sectors, especially real estate. When you think you are buying low with high dividend, but the dividend doesn't hold up and the stock moves lower, you've lost capital for a quick buck if you don't sell at a timely high. All that said, if it does come into my buy zone, it will likely enter the list (though it could be months down the road). Would be merely playing for a rebound to $50 hoping to swipe a couple divvys along the way.
I am watching O very closely. I've had a buy target between $35 and $40 for months. Every time it's dipped, opportunistic divvy boys have bought it up on the false promise of high dividends at lower valuation, not realizing that dividends are likely to start getting slashed across a broad range of sectors, especially real estate. When you think you are buying low with high dividend, but the dividend doesn't hold up and the stock moves lower, you've lost capital for a quick buck if you don't sell at a timely high. All that said, if it does come into my buy zone, it will likely enter the list (though it could be months down the road). Would be merely playing for a rebound to $50 hoping to swipe a couple divvys along the way.
They pay dividends monthly.Heineken-Ashi said:
I've looked at every single utility sector stock in the S&P. I can't find one that would be low risk high reward even with some corrections into a buy zone. Reward just isn't there, and the sector looks bound for another rough year barring some significant strength soon. I really want the list to be balanced but I'm still seeing real estate, financials, and utilities with a lot of weakness potentially ahead. I can't justify going long in those sectors, especially at current levels.
I am watching O very closely. I've had a buy target between $35 and $40 for months. Every time it's dipped, opportunistic divvy boys have bought it up on the false promise of high dividends at lower valuation, not realizing that dividends are likely to start getting slashed across a broad range of sectors, especially real estate. When you think you are buying low with high dividend, but the dividend doesn't hold up and the stock moves lower, you've lost capital for a quick buck if you don't sell at a timely high. All that said, if it does come into my buy zone, it will likely enter the list (though it could be months down the road). Would be merely playing for a rebound to $50 hoping to swipe a couple divvys along the way.
ETA: It's a good DRIP stock. It's like watching paint dry, but still a good DRIP stock.
My matlab code is saying the same thing. The vast majority of buys are bearish ETFs.
Anyone remember if OldArmy1 was offering a Texags discount to follow his service? TIA
Anyone deal with leap options on here vs 0DTE or short term options? Looking to dip my toes into options by way of leaps without having to watch the daily charts like a hawk as I would with 0DTE. (This is small play money account)
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Definitely, i buy leaps on all kinds of speculative stuff, i bet half this thread has or has had sava and wwr leaps. For true zero or hero plays (i.e. pharma) they often make more sense than buying shares and watching them get eroded away over time. Also they trade pretty thinly so you can put in really low orders gtc and catch them cheap sometimes, then do the same to sell the higher call (or lower put) and build out free spreads
Thanks for that. I'm assuming those home runs either hit or just let go and expire worthless. The fun money account won't be big enough to buy 100 shares of AMD (for example), so I'm trying to educate myself on options
Be careful on options. The main thing you need to be successful (and not just lucky) is liquidity. If there's not much open interest on a LEAP when you buy, you are taking a big risk that there will be when you want to sell, and there might not. That's why it's best to stick to high volume stocks when doing leaps.
Thanks. Was looking at AMD specifically, but yes I'm trying to learn and not blow it up on day one
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Best thing I would say on options….
Be ok with losing all the money you spent on it and know that going in. But also know that capital preservation is key to options.
Don't be afraid to cut losses quickly at certain defined amounts (i.e 25% loss, etc).
Do not get greedy. Take the profit when it runs. It can quickly go sideways in the matter of minutes.
I seriously never drop more than $500 on options unless it's a leap on a long term position I want. AMD is probably one of the ones I'd classify that with. But give yourself enough time to let it work.
Be ok with losing all the money you spent on it and know that going in. But also know that capital preservation is key to options.
Don't be afraid to cut losses quickly at certain defined amounts (i.e 25% loss, etc).
Do not get greedy. Take the profit when it runs. It can quickly go sideways in the matter of minutes.
I seriously never drop more than $500 on options unless it's a leap on a long term position I want. AMD is probably one of the ones I'd classify that with. But give yourself enough time to let it work.
If I was working w/ a small account I'd look at vertical credit spreads and poor man's covered calls. Also, I wouldn't put more than 10% of my money in any single option position.El_duderino said:
Thanks for that. I'm assuming those home runs either hit or just let go and expire worthless. The fun money account won't be big enough to buy 100 shares of AMD (for example), so I'm trying to educate myself on options
Fantastic points. I'll most likely start 1 contract small and then as time progresses move up from there. Just been doing ToS paper trading so far
Add U to the list. Another ProgN rec that I like. Love the setup and we can buy right now <$40 with stop at $36.15, extremely low risk and high reward. $50 could come quick (around earnings Feb 1). EPS turned positive Q1 last year and has been steadily rising along with revenue. This coming earnings is estimated to be down on EPS from previous quarter and at the same level as Q2 last year. Revenue missed the last estimate but still grew from Q2. This estimate is the exact same as last time. A beat on both earnings and rev could be our catalyst. 2024 target is $56-$67.
Running list
OXY - Energy - O&G
SMCI - Tech - Hardware
AMD - Tech - Semiconductor
CRM - Tech - Software
CXM - Tech - Software
TLT - 20+ Year Treasury ETF
NOV - Energy - Equipment and Technology
TSLA - Consumer Discretionary - EV
TSN - Consumer Staples - Food
WHD - Energy - Equipment sales and rentals
UNFI - Consumer Staples - Distributor
MLCO - Consumer Discretionary - Gaming & Hospitality
DOW - Materials - Chemical
ASO - Consumer Discretionary - Retail
U - Tech - Software
Running list
OXY - Energy - O&G
SMCI - Tech - Hardware
AMD - Tech - Semiconductor
CRM - Tech - Software
CXM - Tech - Software
TLT - 20+ Year Treasury ETF
NOV - Energy - Equipment and Technology
TSLA - Consumer Discretionary - EV
TSN - Consumer Staples - Food
WHD - Energy - Equipment sales and rentals
UNFI - Consumer Staples - Distributor
MLCO - Consumer Discretionary - Gaming & Hospitality
DOW - Materials - Chemical
ASO - Consumer Discretionary - Retail
U - Tech - Software
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