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Red Pear Luke (BCS)
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I have a hard time betting against Nancy.

This means that a recent bill is likely to have a profounding impact in one of the next upcoming quarters.

Like something to do with China TSM/Taiwan relations or escalations?

Sponsor Message: We Split Commissions. Full Service Agents in Austin, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston and San Antonio. Red Pear Realty
ProgN
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Red Pear Luke (BCS) said:

I have a hard time betting against Nancy.

This means that a recent bill is likely to have a profounding impact in one of the next upcoming quarters.

Like something to do with China TSM/Taiwan relations or escalations?


https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3430685

I know most here don't wade into the cesspool of F16 like degenerates as I do, but just read my OP if you're bored. I don't have the time currently to scroll through the buys and sells of securities by Congress critters but it's very interesting. I've perused it and focused only on the larger buys by critters from both sides of the aisle. Let's just say that when you pull the symbols up in the charts the moves up or down (when they've sold) are impressive. The Senator from MN, Tina iirc, had a great month of November. When my project is over and I have more time, I plan to follow it more closely for stocks to add to my watchlist.

If you read my OP and want the link to the site that tracks them, I posted it about 5 posts below the OP.


PS. If you need liquor for Christmas Day, then tonight and tomorrow will be your only chance. Stores are closed on Sunday and Christmas Day. Just FYI.


Heineken-Ashi
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The Texags 24 in 24

The list is coming along, but I first have to caution.. this will likely not be a list of stocks to hold for the entire year. 2024 is shaping up to be extremely volatile. While the last two months have you all looking up, I want to caution that where we're at is concerning in many ways.

First, we are way past due a sizeable pullback. While I am fully expecting one, the size and length (and exact timing of it starting) is hard to try and predict due to outlook on rates and SO MANY stocks that have lagged way behind.

Second, no matter what happens in the first half of the year, or even first 3 quarters, we have an election coming up. Throw everything you think you know about market performance in election years out the window. Because to me, what we are experiencing feels a lot like 1999. In fact, go look at the shape of the correction in July of 1999 that ended in October 1999, and the move that followed it into the end of the year. While it had a couple small breathers, it looks a little familiar. What followed was a beginning of the year drop that kind of mimicked the October 1999 drop followed by a robust blowoff top into March 2000. You then had a lethal drop back to the previous low, a choppy attempt to reclaim lost ground nearly getting back to the top, and finally, a bull destroying selloff into a two-year long bear market starting the September before the election.

On top of that, go back and look at all times that the FED starting lowering rates after a hiking cycle. These things rarely happen with stocks going up. In fact, it's usually when the FED starts lowering that they are merely following the bond market who was many months ahead of them, and has already bottomed out and reversed. By then, it's usually too late and the FED is merely lowering into, and worsening, a long selloff. It's only after the equities markets exhaust themselves and create capitulation that they will finally bottom. And most people and financial advisors will be looking even lower when it does. It's hard not to. But the market will bottom and likely start a lengthy multi-year bear market bounce until the next event. And just like all other major declines that include deflation in everything, the FED will of course have no choice but to pull their last lever.

See, while the FED has been selling it's assets (on the surface - as I discussed last weekend they've actually been providing record and unprecedented amounts of liquidity through the reverse repo market, a power not granted to them until the Great Recession). When everything in the country is dropping in value, they really only have one tool left, and its not a rescue tool. It's literally the reason they exist. They will print more greenbacks and devalue the currency again, crushing the middle class, in an attempt to rescue the banks - the industry they were designed to protect. This will provide liquidity for the banks to survive and consolidate. And they will buy your assets for pennies on the dollar while you are looking down. Many banks will fail and many more will be bought by the monster banks. This is the gameplan since the beginning of the FED. This is how they consolidate power and wealth in the few hands at your expense. And the government, their partner, has been more than happy to grant them these powers, help them grow them, and add insult to injury along the way through excessive and unreconcilable spending.

In the case of 2000, that next event was the Great Recession, only 5 years after the dotcom bottom. So if this all shapes up the way I've described, you can bet your ass the late 2020's or early 2030's will be even worse.

I say all this to provide a backdrop for why I'm hesitant to hold stocks all year. Some will boom and some will do nothing. But in the end, in the face of a potential cyclic event, one that has happened regularly for the last 100+ years despite the FED apparently being charged to prevent them (they cause them and make them worse), one that is absolutely due, and being within an economic climate that is over-ripe for that type of event, nothing will be safe. So the plays I outline for this list will have targets, and upon being hit, I recommend exiting completely. And if at any point things start to get shakey, I absolutely recommend advising your own level of caution. Who knows if I, or anyone, will see anything coming.

The list will have 24 stocks, all with target entries (some will say enter before end of the year), all with minimum targets and maximum targets. I will also try and provide stop levels. Some of these will seem obvious. Some will not. I'm still working on rounding it out. Every day I research I find more potentials and drop some out. But here's 3 that will absolutely be on the list that you can start watching. The rest will be out soon.

OXY - We all know Buffet's interest. But look at the chart. This thing is consolidating sideways while he buys in. While it wouldn't shock me to see $50. It also wouldn't shock me to never see $60 again. The minimum target is $110. Caution will need to be taken at the previous high around $77 and then again at $87 and $100. The stop would be $45. So some risk here. But this a great company. Oil has either just bottomed or has one more low. I could pick a ton of oil stocks. But OXY is reliable.

SMCI - This comes with the assistance of our faithful degenerate ProgN. I've been VERY bearish on it seeing the $170 area gap fill as likely. He liked the upper gap fill and was ultimately right short term. I fear now that I might be right going forward. This play comes with a caveat. IF it gap fills to $170, you absolutely buy the bottom as once it finds support it will retrace up significantly. Many of you are already in it.

AMD - Whether it corrects first or not, this one is going to cement itself as a chip leader. The target is minimum of $230. It could go as high as $350. Earnings in February might be a catalyst. The caveat here is, this cannot sell off below $80 early next year. If that happens, the timeline gets extended and the big move is likely a year or two further down the road. We're pretty frothy right now. I'd like a better entry and for technical indicators to come more into balance. But who knows.

One last comment - I'm very bullish metals. But I'm going to not include them. I think you should be loading up after the next mini selloff (if it comes). Metals, miners, and maybe BTC. But I'm so bullish on all of those, it's hard to pick a handful of best performers.

Stay tuned for more.
bmoochie
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Kidding! Appreciate this, lot of great info that I can't wait to dive into. Have a Merry Christmas!
Charismatic Megafauna
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Damn...heinie got me needing a drink. It's gonna be a Tiki Wheat though.
Happy holidays y'all!
gggmann
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What are folks' thoughts on continuing to hold MSTR as a bitcoin proxy in light of the fact that the ETF approvals are anticipated next month? Should one consider moving to the ETFs or stay put? I've been hesitant to buy actual coins because of the fees and the whole cold wallet complications.
FJ43
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Merry Christmas Gents. Hope y'all have a very Blessed Christmas with family ahead.

Here's to a solid 2024 for us trading degenerates.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

Charismatic Megafauna
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We haven't done this in a while: what are you guys' favorite charities?
I do houston food bank, galveston bay foundation, ducks unlimited, tread lightly, trees for houston,
barc, friends of the Colorado avalanche information center, cca, willow waterhole (local greenspace).
FishrCoAg
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My church, West Texas Rehabilitation Center, TAMU
spud1910
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My church and St. Jude's.
FJ43
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My church and families or individuals we notice need help throughout the year.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

Bocephus
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Assist The Officer (ATO)
TAMU ‘98 Ole Miss ‘21
Charismatic Megafauna
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Nice thanks guys, always looking for good orgs to support
ravingfans
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My favorites include:

Compassion International: https://www.compassion.com

Christian faith based organization. Can donate or sponsor a child and write back and forth. Their focus is educating children across the globe and ensuring they get a hot meal as well. At Christmas time there is a special opportunity to give, and it usually winds up buying them something like a goat for their family. I have had some kids for 8 years or so and fascinating to learn of some of their cultures!

Behind The Walls:
https://www.behindthewalls.com/

This is a faith based Prison ministry that I'm involved in. Changes your heart to donate your time and every dollar changes a life for the long haul. If you are ever interested in going in a prison with me (with the opportunity to leave at the end of your day!) then send me a message.

The Stewpot:
https://www.thestewpot.org/about-us

The Stewpot is a ministry of First Presbyterian Church of Dallas and works with the homeless mainly in downtown Dallas area. Occasionally, I have been downtown, and somebody will politely approach me and tell me about their work. They will sell me a newspaper that tells about local downtown events. It is a whole system of writing and then distributing the newspapers for a very small amount. The person selling gains dignity, and learns to work with people. This is just one of many programs they offer.

I haven't been downtown enough to know if they still do the newspaper work, but this is a quality organization that intends to change some of these folks lives.
Heineken-Ashi
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Go ahead and add CRM to the 24 list. I think it will put in a top in January some time. Pulling for a gap fill back to $225 range leading into March earnings, and then end of year target $350+, maybe even $400+.

I know it's an expensive stock, but in less than 5 years they've grown revenue from $3.6B in 1Q19 to estimated $9.22B in Jan 2024. $8.6B last earnings and find me the last time they had a miss. They are the prize of the class.

CEO sold 30k shares last week. But don't be a fool when it sells off following this run (remember, I mentioned this one a couple weeks to a month back as very bullish but I wanted it to come back and give an entry, it took off instead). Those 30k were just an end of the year Christmas bonus for himself. He still owns 24M shares, 14M held directly.

Now, it won't go straight up. But if it can hold above $225 area, this one is a screaming take. You can certainly buy here. Maybe it never comes back. But Don't be alarmed if it does. Stop will be $216.

Running list is

OXY - Energy - O&G
SMCI - Tech - Hardware
AMD - Tech - Semiconductor
CRM - Tech - Software
RangerRick9211
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We love Compassion. We sponsor an OG kiddo since our first year of marriage in 2010 and picked up another our daughter's age. There's structured communication between you and your kido and you can even visit on a trip. I very much enjoy seeing the impacts of our donations and even more so having my daughter pen-pal with a girl her age. She also has monthly chores to cover her part of the donation.

Africa New Life is a similar one we picked up this year. Similar MO, but hyper focused in Rawanda.
Heineken-Ashi
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Here's a cheaper one to add to the list. CXM - Sprinkler, Inc

$7 sell off from $17 to $10 following Dec earnings report where they announced a beat, apparently because lowed forecasted growth going forward. Whatever. The stop is the recent bottom of $10.93 and the target is gap fill of $16.70 and potentially $25. Buy this one now in the high $11's, place your stop a couple pennies below the last bottom, and don't touch it until gap fill where you can lower your basis and hope for higher. Very low risk, very high reward. Find 10 of these and even if you only hit on 1 or 2 they will pay for the losses and likely return you more than the S&P for the year.

Running list

OXY - Energy - O&G
SMCI - Tech - Hardware
AMD - Tech - Semiconductor
CRM - Tech - Software
CXM - Tech - Software
DavysApprentice
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RangerRick9211 said:

We love Compassion. We sponsor an OG kiddo since our first year of marriage in 2010 and picked up another our daughter's age. There's structured communication between you and your kido and you can even visit on a trip. I very much enjoy seeing the impacts of our donations and even more so having my daughter pen-pal with a girl her age. She also has monthly chores to cover her part of the donation.

Africa New Life is a similar one we picked up this year. Similar MO, but hyper focused in Rawanda.


Compassion is great. If you have kids of your own they can definitely take part.
ProgN
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Merry Christmas Eve my friends and I wish all of you and your families a wonderful and joyous Merry Christmas.

I've posted this for several years here because it is a powerful performance of my most favorite Christmas song. If you've seen it and roll your eyes, well you know be by now that IDGAS, and you can just skip it. For any new clubhouse members or lurkers that haven't heard it, please press play.

I wish everyone a Merry Christmas and a prosperous new year my friends.

This thread is the only reason I haven't blown up my account because I don't enjoy TA like I used to and have been tempted to go out in a in blaze of glory epic perma last post, but I'd miss this thread.

Merry Christmas my friends.

ravingfans
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thanks Prog--love Gaither music!

Sometimes less is more, and focusing on one thread is a good recipe. Some of us (me!) really benefit from your coaching, so hope you stay in it for the long haul.


Hope all have a wonderful Christmas here--what an awesome group we have!
ProgN
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Thank you and this thread and all of you is why I'll stay.
GreasenUSA
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ProgN said:

This thread is the only reason I haven't blown up my account because I don't enjoy TA like I used to and have been tempted to go out in a in blaze of glory epic perma last post, but I'd miss this thread.


On first read, I thought "account" was referring to your brokerage account and "TA" meant technical analysis. Had to read it about 3 times and reconcile who was making the post before I figured out what you meant!

Merry Christmas (eve)!
gougler08
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Heineken-Ashi said:

Here's a cheaper one to add to the list. CXM - Sprinkler, Inc

$7 sell off from $17 to $10 following Dec earnings report where they announced a beat, apparently because lowed forecasted growth going forward. Whatever. The stop is the recent bottom of $10.93 and the target is gap fill of $16.70 and potentially $25. Buy this one now in the high $11's, place your stop a couple pennies below the last bottom, and don't touch it until gap fill where you can lower your basis and hope for higher. Very low risk, very high reward. Find 10 of these and even if you only hit on 1 or 2 they will pay for the losses and likely return you more than the S&P for the year.

Running list

OXY - Energy - O&G
SMCI - Tech - Hardware
AMD - Tech - Semiconductor
CRM - Tech - Software
CXM - Tech - Software


Love those kind of charts like CXM, will definitely be looking to enter that one for a medium hold
cgh1999
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Merry Christmas my friends.



Incredible. Thanks for sharing!
Bird Poo
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Hopefully you will PM me before you blow it up because I would like to stay in touch. You're a badass and bring a lot to this board. Merry Christmas Prog!
El_duderino
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Merry Christmas to you as well and thanks for that from a rookie in this thread. I'm a huge fan of live/acoustic to be able to really appreciate amazing voices like that.

On another note. Got an account with Schwab and have been diving into TOS on the paper trading side and it's been a big learning curve so far. Also ordered the book suggested in the OP to educate myself as well
ProgN
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El_duderino said:

Merry Christmas to you as well and thanks for that from a rookie in this thread. I'm a huge fan of live/acoustic to be able to really appreciate amazing voices like that.

On another note. Got an account with Schwab and have been diving into TOS on the paper trading side and it's been a big learning curve so far. Also ordered the book suggested in the OP to educate myself as well

Great job, always work to refine your trade. Even us olds learn something new all the time. Think of it as investing in yourself.
Brian Earl Spilner
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Merry Christmas everyone, hope everyone has a great 2024 with more capital gains than we can handle.
Red Pear Luke (BCS)
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I got in before x-mas on a couple TSLA $260 lottos that were just under 30 days out.

Tempted to take some profits here at 15%.

What does the board think? Let it ride or take it off?
Heineken-Ashi
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Add TLT to the list. Whether bullish or bearish equities, the market is moving higher for bonds and lower for rates. Minimum target is 120. Upper target is 140. Buying here is not a bad place. But if you see it in the low to mid 90's again, that's a great place to load up as our stop is $86.

Running list

OXY - Energy - O&G
SMCI - Tech - Hardware
AMD - Tech - Semiconductor
CRM - Tech - Software
CXM - Tech - Software
TLT - 20+ Year Treasury ETF
YNWA_AG
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Did you post any targets for any of these?
Heineken-Ashi
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Add NOV to the list. It's gearing up for a breakout. I think it will see $24-$27 next with the later in the year target being $34. High end would be $40. Our stop will be $17 but if you want to set it at the previous low of $18 range I don't blame you.

Running list

OXY - Energy - O&G
SMCI - Tech - Hardware
AMD - Tech - Semiconductor
CRM - Tech - Software
CXM - Tech - Software
TLT - 20+ Year Treasury ETF
NOV - Energy - Equipment and Technology
Heineken-Ashi
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YNWA_AG said:

Did you post any targets for any of these?
I'm pretty sure each one has had a dedicated post with at least minimum targets. Search through my posting history over the last couple of weeks and you should find them all.
El_duderino
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Looks like AMD hit the $145 mark and hopefully it goes back down for a better entry point
bmoochie
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Welp. Looks like it would have been good to load back up on TELL after the selloff of Charif news. Dammit
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