ProgN said:

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El_duderino said:

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TD would be Schwab now though isn't it?

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Correct, TD is now Schwab and I hate the Schwab website platform.

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good to know I am not the only one that hates Schwab!

I have my personal brokerage with Fidelity which is an awesome platform to understand and use

one of my corporate 401K uses Schwab and it is a pain in the @#$@#

Sector outlook using RSI and Keltners. This is ONE technical piece so you cant use it as your only guide. But it's a good measuring stick of general sentiment and can give clues to the future.

Communication Services

• Daily - Bounced off balance line and approaching overbought. No sell signal yet.
• Weekly - Overbought inn July, slight cool off never getting back to balance level, and butting the overbought line now. No sell signal yet.
• Monthly - Above the balance line with room to go until overbought which comes in around or above ATH.

Consumer Discretionary

• Daily - Extremely overbought. No sell signal, but by the time it forms it will have likely already rolled over.
• Weekly - Today touched the beginning stages of overbought. Tiny room up if it wants it. No sell signal yet.
• Monthly - Above the balance line after a bounce from overbought in 2021. Cross of overbought line again would at or above ATH.

Consumer Staples

• Daily - Hit the overbought line and retraced a little. Hitting it again now. No sell signal yet.
• Weekly - October nearly touched oversold, and we're now a hair under the balance line. Room to move up, but caution advised if it bounced off the balance line.
• Monthly - Above the balance line after a bounce from overbought in 2022. Cross of overbought line again would be at or above ATH. Balance line is at or slightly below October low.

Energy

• Daily - Bounced from near oversold (no buy signals when it happened) and now touching balance line. In a very precarious spot as pressure is down unless we can get some more volume and continuation upward. Crude above $78 with follow through above $80 is where further immediate downside invalidates. If it can't bounce, we're probably talking about Crude at $60 in a couple months, maybe lower.
• Weekly - Playing hot potato A/B balance line. Currently under and butting up against it. Recent high was below the last high before it which touched the overbought line. Oversold is at or below July 2022 low. Daily is the bigger tell here.
• Monthly - Triple touch of overbought. Sell signal on the first one in June 2022. Balance line is at end of year 2021 levels and oversold is irrelevant at this time as it will continue to rise even with a move down.

Financials

• Daily - Extremely overbought with sell signal on Dec 1. Has since gotten even more overbought. Last time it even approached this level of overbought was June 2020. Balance line is at mid November price level and oversold line is at October 2023 low area.
• Weekly - Approaching overbought with room to go. Comes in before the peak of the last high. Balance level is same as daily. Confluence of the two means it's the likely target of the next sell off. Oversold is just below the daily level.
• Monthly - Triple touch of the balance line off an overbought February 2022 level. Overbought again is new highs and balance line is October low and rising with oversold around COVID lows. Slight melt up short term, sell off followed by one more rise mid term, and sell off to COVID low long term looks like it has lots of backing as a potential outlook.

Health Care

• Daily - Overbought and sell signal on 12/13 followed by a move down the following day. Balance line is a 50% retrace of the last low from the high that day. Oversold is the previous low.
• Weekly - Pinball on the balance line never really threatening overbought or oversold. Looks like a contracting triangle coming off the April 2022 high. Overbought is at or above that high. Oversold is at or below the June 2022 low.
• Monthly - Major overbough with sell signal August 2021.This triangle has led to a cooling off as it's stayed above the balance line near the June 2022 low. Overbought would be significantly above ATH. Oversold would be COVID low.

Industrials

• Daily - Extremely overbought with sell signal 12/5. Has gone parabolic overbought since similar to financials. Balance line is mid November. Oversold is just above previous low from early November.
• Weekly - Trending toward overbought but room to go. Balance line is January 2023 high and rising. Oversold is halfway between October 2023 low and September 2022 low.
• Monthly - Overbought May of 2021, came down and touched balance line and has trended to new highs and still under the overbought line right now, so room to go. Overbought is significant new highs. Balance line is rising from the last touch, and oversold is rising above the May of 2020 low.

IT

• Overbought with sell signal on 11/20/23. Small retrace and new highs since then. Still very overbought. Balance line is approaching the August/September 2023 high and oversold is above the Otcober 2023 low.
• Weekly - Very overbought with quadruple sell signals from June 2023 to July 2023. Sold off but didn't even touch balance line before resuming upward and now way over the overbought line again. Balance line is at the October 2023 low and oversold is March 2023 low. Slight room to go if waiting on sell signal.
• Monthly - Extremely overbought December 2021. Sold off to near balance line in October 2022. Now double topping the overbought line with a little room to give if it wants it for further upside. Balance line is March 2023 low and oversold is WAY below slightly above COVID low.

Materials

• Daily - Extremely overbought with double sell signal last over the last 20 days as its continued up. Balance line is chop zone from October 2023 and oversold is the low that followed.
• Weekly - Pinball with the balance line after overbought and sell off from May of 2021 to October 2022. Overbought is ATH and oversold is just above October 2022 low.
• Monthly - Overbought with sell signal in May 2021 and sold off to perfect bounce off balance line in September/October 2022. Overbought is new highs and oversold is COVID low with balance line at the bottom of the last 6 months chop zone just below us.

Real Estate

• Overbought with sell signal 12/5 and his gone parabolic since then. Indicators screaming. Balance line is Nov 2023 high and rising. Oversold is just above October 2023 low.
• Weekly - Nicely above balance line with room to go before overbought. Balance line is 50% retrace of October low from current area. Oversold is below October low but starting to rise slightly.
• Monthly - Overbought with double sell signal December 2021 and sold off below balance line where it chopped a couple times. Back above it now slightly. Overbought is new highs far above and oversold is COVID low and actually slightly falling.

Utilities

• Daily - Wow. Pinball between overbought and oversold since 2020 with pinball as its gone back down. Tons of touches on all sides with balance line only ever being slight speed bump and no resistance or support. Currently overbought but no sell signal. Balance line is 50% retrace down. Oversold is just above October low.
• Weekly - Touched oversold in October and hit balance line recently and dropped a little. The oversold gave a buy signal. Balance line is just above and overbought is August/ September 2022 high. Oversold is last low.
• Monthly - Bounced below balance line and then came back up to it. Overbought way above and oversold below COVID low.

ravingfans said:

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ProgN said:

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Welcome to the clubhouse.

I don't hold any mutual funds/ETF etc. just stocks. I with H-A an think a lot of this rally is a short squeeze. Pull up a chart on the COMP, SPX and DJIA over the last 7 weeks. I preferred to sell Jan 2 and push off the tax liability but I'd be sick if I they sold off and I rode them down because of f'ing taxes. I'm in the 70-85% range in cash now across my accounts. Now I'll wait and see what the markets do next month when they start to report earnings. I'm in the camp that whatever they report and guide won't matter and they'll selloff. I want to have a stockpile of cash to buy when everyone is afraid.

Only you can decide how much cash you want to raise, but ask yourself 2 things.
1) Are you letting greed guide your decision or can you justify your holdings going higher with evidence?
2) How will you feel if you ride them back down, wishing you had lightened up so you could buy great stocks at incredible entry prices?

I'm not a daytrader nor a huge believer in just buy and hold. I'm a momentum trader and may usually make less than 20 trades in the accounts in a year. It's worked extremely well for me, but only you can decide what works for you.

Hope that helps and continue to ask questions because we all want each other to succeed and that's how we all learn.

Merry Christmas

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Prog-- Merry Christmas to you also!

I would love to do 20 trades a year and come out in a good position. This thread is fascinating, but it comes so fast and definitely would require me to step aside from day job just to read it all.

Can you give some guidance on how you manage to grow a portfolio at 20x/year pace?

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I don't grow my accounts at 20X a year. I generally make less than 20 trades per year. That's not a firm number or a rule, it's an illustration my trading style. I'm not a day trader, I'm a momentum trader. I use technical analysis to pick my entry and exits of my stocks.

POWL cranking upper deck shots this morning.

Ccutamu said:

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SW AG80 said:

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How far can POWL run?

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Perhaps ProgN has a target. There are some goalposts on this one on 8/2 and 12/15. It's struggling to get through this $97ish wall.

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I'm tempted to jump out. I have a cost basis at $3.55….

spud1910 said:

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Thoughts on XOM. Right now I have a small profit. It is a significant portion of my trading account. I am tempted to sell to free up cash for the drop many expect to be coming. I'm thinking if I do, I will give those of you still in it a boost.

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Havent been over on this thread in weeks. Been a rough ride. You know my story and it hasn't changed. EIA numbers are pure BS. Even they cant decide what numbers they want to use for Weekly Estimates for crude production, none of their weekly data adds up monthly and forecasts are no where near correct. It's bad. So, if you havent done anything. Check this story out from today.

"Doug Kass, a long-time hedge fund manager, has noticed the recent decline in crude oil prices. Kass, the former Director of Research for Leon Cooperman's Omega Advisors, has navigated bull and bear markets since the 1970s. He creates a list of market "surprises" for the upcoming year every year. This year, his list includes an outlook for crude oil prices that may raise some eyebrows. Given Kass's long experience managing money, it may be worthwhile to consider what he thinks could happen to per-barrel oil prices in 2024.

Kass speculates, "Shares of Exxon Mobil, Occidental Petroleum, and Chevron each rise by over one-third next year" because of rebounding oil prices"

I'm uber long and continued to add during this dip. I was adding PXD because 1. I believe the deal is going through and 2. the conversion from PXD to XOM netted you usually $2.50 to $3.50 cheaper XOM shares versus buying XOM. .... I dont care what EIA prints anymore. In Nov the world s&d was short 1.5 mbpd and that number will increase. If you read this BS about the U.S. exporting crude at record numbers, it's not. And the U.S. still imports more than it exports on a weekly basis. I think the SPR was structurally damaged last year when Joe was emptying the facility of 200 plus million barrels in 9 months. I believe the salt cavern domed roofs were weaken in the draw. I spent a portion of my career in salt. I'm not a mine expert, but I know a mine issue when they arise. Mining salt is nothing like coal or other minerals - it's way different. I digress. I remain bullish. Saudi is not going to do the 2014 stunt of flooding the world with crude to put frackers out of business. Theres a better chance of an embargo. Saudi will continue production cuts. Joe had to have cheap gas to buy votes. He is succeeding. Theres manipulation, but when world supplies get tighter, oil will rise and the energy complex will run. These past 2 months were not foreseen by me. EIA and whoever was shorting crude are responsible. The crude Futures sellers are not companies or HFs, the contract volumes were too great. It was a State sponsored entity. No one has 13000 contracts of selling power in under 20 minutes to drop oil $2 on multiple days many occasions and larger volumes. The one I mention sticks in my mind because it was so pronounced. Warren isnt selling OXY and there is no way CVX is worth a $48 premium to XOM. XOM can yield 10 percent return with $35 Brent. CVX covers Capex and some other costs at $50 Brent. Writing is on the wall. GLTA

ravingfans said:

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Poor choice of words on my part--meant to say 20 trades per year, not 20x growth per year (that would take more risk than I have the nerve for!)

20 trades is a few per month on average--this seems like my speed, so I'm looking for a methodology where I don't have get it exactly right or the exact day or tine to make a trade.

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Howdy, this is what has worked for me.

• Create a watchlist of 15-25 stocks that interest you and read any news on them daily, even if you aren't in them. If some makes a big move up or down, find out why. If their earnings and future are weakening then remove them from your list because their stock price may be low but remember it can always go lower.
• Use only your 3 favorite technical indicators that you trust the most. Mine are RSI, MACD, and slow stochastic, in that order. I use slow stochastic to get my attention of a stock in over bought/sold territory, but it's unreliable for entry and exits. When RSI and MACD confirm a buy or sell, that's when I make a decision.
• Stay disciplined and don't FOMO. You will end up a bag holder most of the time because you just had to put money to work.
• You will never pick the bottom to buy nor the top to sell so stay true to your strategy and don't worry about it. If it goes lower after you buy or higher after you sell at a profit dgaf. Example, I bought $U at $25.56 in October and then it dropped to $22. I sold it last week at $38 and it's $41 today, IDC it was a good trade.

There will be times where you're sitting on cash for awhile but stick to your preferred technical indicators and you'll win a lot more than you lose. That said, when you're wrong, cut your loss and move on don't ride it down because of pride; just stay away from it for 31 days so you get to offset your gains.

Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

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spud1910 said:

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Thoughts on XOM. Right now I have a small profit. It is a significant portion of my trading account. I am tempted to sell to free up cash for the drop many expect to be coming. I'm thinking if I do, I will give those of you still in it a boost.

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Havent been over on this thread in weeks. Been a rough ride. You know my story and it hasn't changed. EIA numbers are pure BS. Even they cant decide what numbers they want to use for Weekly Estimates for crude production, none of their weekly data adds up monthly and forecasts are no where near correct. It's bad. So, if you havent done anything. Check this story out from today.

"Doug Kass, a long-time hedge fund manager, has noticed the recent decline in crude oil prices. Kass, the former Director of Research for Leon Cooperman's Omega Advisors, has navigated bull and bear markets since the 1970s. He creates a list of market "surprises" for the upcoming year every year. This year, his list includes an outlook for crude oil prices that may raise some eyebrows. Given Kass's long experience managing money, it may be worthwhile to consider what he thinks could happen to per-barrel oil prices in 2024.

Kass speculates, "Shares of Exxon Mobil, Occidental Petroleum, and Chevron each rise by over one-third next year" because of rebounding oil prices"

I'm uber long and continued to add during this dip. I was adding PXD because 1. I believe the deal is going through and 2. the conversion from PXD to XOM netted you usually $2.50 to $3.50 cheaper XOM shares versus buying XOM. .... I dont care what EIA prints anymore. In Nov the world s&d was short 1.5 mbpd and that number will increase. If you read this BS about the U.S. exporting crude at record numbers, it's not. And the U.S. still imports more than it exports on a weekly basis. I think the SPR was structurally damaged last year when Joe was emptying the facility of 200 plus million barrels in 9 months. I believe the salt cavern domed roofs were weaken in the draw. I spent a portion of my career in salt. I'm not a mine expert, but I know a mine issue when they arise. Mining salt is nothing like coal or other minerals - it's way different. I digress. I remain bullish. Saudi is not going to do the 2014 stunt of flooding the world with crude to put frackers out of business. Theres a better chance of an embargo. Saudi will continue production cuts. Joe had to have cheap gas to buy votes. He is succeeding. Theres manipulation, but when world supplies get tighter, oil will rise and the energy complex will run. These past 2 months were not foreseen by me. EIA and whoever was shorting crude are responsible. The crude Futures sellers are not companies or HFs, the contract volumes were too great. It was a State sponsored entity. No one has 13000 contracts of selling power in under 20 minutes to drop oil $2 on multiple days many occasions and larger volumes. The one I mention sticks in my mind because it was so pronounced. Warren isnt selling OXY and there is no way CVX is worth a $48 premium to XOM. XOM can yield 10 percent return with $35 Brent. CVX covers Capex and some other costs at $50 Brent. Writing is on the wall. GLTA

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Good to see you my friend and Merry Christmas. How's Mrs. Farmer doing?

Good to hear from you Farmer. Thanks for this info. I'm sure l speak for all of us here that we miss your valuable insight. Hope things are going well with Mrs Farmer.

ProgN said:

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ravingfans said:

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Poor choice of words on my part--meant to say 20 trades per year, not 20x growth per year (that would take more risk than I have the nerve for!)

20 trades is a few per month on average--this seems like my speed, so I'm looking for a methodology where I don't have get it exactly right or the exact day or tine to make a trade.

---

Howdy, this is what has worked for me.

• Create a watchlist of 15-25 stocks that interest you and read any news on them daily, even if you aren't in them. If some makes a big move up or down, find out why. If their earnings and future are weakening then remove them from your list because their stock price may be low but remember it can always go lower.
• Use only your 3 favorite technical indicators that you trust the most. Mine are RSI, MACD, and slow stochastic, in that order. I use slow stochastic to get my attention of a stock in over bought/sold territory, but it's unreliable for entry and exits. When RSI and MACD confirm a buy or sell, that's when I make a decision.
• Stay disciplined and don't FOMO. You will end up a bag holder most of the time because you just had to put money to work.
• You will never pick the bottom to buy nor the top to sell so stay true to your strategy and don't worry about it. If it goes lower after you buy or higher after you sell at a profit dgaf. Example, I bought $U at $25.56 in October and then it dropped to $22. I sold it last week at $38 and it's $41 today, IDC it was a good trade.

There will be times where you're sitting on cash for awhile but stick to your preferred technical indicators and you'll win a lot more than you lose. That said, when you're wrong, cut your loss and move on don't ride it down because of pride; just stay away from it for 31 days so you get to offset your gains.

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Much appreciated, Prog!!

ProgN said:

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Ccutamu said:

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SW AG80 said:

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How far can POWL run?

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Perhaps ProgN has a target. There are some goalposts on this one on 8/2 and 12/15. It's struggling to get through this $97ish wall.

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There's nothing wrong with selling some or all up here. It's a good ROI in a short period of time and you'll have cash to put back to use when market pulls back. You'll also have the added satisfaction of not stressing about could've, would've, should'ves during Christmas.

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Thanks for the info on POWL and TTD Prog and also for your strategy!

Mrs Farmer doing great. Progressing well. #1 son home for semester break - adds another plus to the household demeanor. That bottle of Pappy, Old Rip Van Winkle 10 Year bourbon I wrote about 14 months ago arrived last week. Trace snow so far. We're bone dry. Been overcast forever keeping our temps unseasonably warm. Our local team, South Dakota State Jackrabbits play Montana Grizzlies for the FCS Natl Championship Jan 7 in Frisco, TX. It's a real boost for the community. My 89 year neighbor got put in assisted/nursing care and I try to maintain a check In with him every 4 days. He has liver cancer and is fighting the good fight. Developing 5 homestead tracts on the family estate farm in TX been keeping me busy - all phone and email. Hope to get down next year. That raps up life on the Plains. Thank you for the thoughts and prayers. 2024 will be much better.