TxAgLaw03RW said:

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Brian Earl Spilner said:

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TNA

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I'm sure Prog has a good gif for that ticker

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Banks have very weak balance sheets. While there is likely some more upside in the near future (3-6 months), the long term outlook is very very weak.

Consider that the forward looking treasury curve has 7-10 year yields not getting below 4% next year and not below 3% through 2026. With 100-300 basis point spreads, that equals commercial lending rates at 4% at the very lowest and 6% at the highest in 3 years. SOFR curve is a little bit softer, but spreads are significantly higher meaning the all in rate will likely still be 6%-7% or higher for floating rate debt. FED funds dot plot shows fed rates not breaking below 3% until 2027, and likely above 4% until 2026 (and remember, the FED dot plot is merely a wishlist. It has no basis in factual reality as things change daily).

That means that it's still going to be very a very tight lending environment. And banks with long term treasury exposure are still going to have duration mismatch for the next 2-4 years.

So ANY SORT OF scare, bank run, or liquidity crisis means that just about every bank will be feeling a squeeze. The scare we had with SVB was not the last one.

My advice is to have your stops in place. Don't run for the hills. But don't be exposed to downside.

Term SOFR, Fallback Rate (SOFR), and Treasury… | Chatham Financial

We had a 100% win rate for trades called during the week, measured by achieving 50% ROI+. Told everyone not to get spoiled by that, as I target a 70% win rate.

Lot of the members liked some day trading mixed in with longer term trades, so I gave a META out that ran 200% for an out. Those ended up running 400% but I like the meat of a trade intraday. I then gave a bottom projection and when the set up came to us we went long calls for a quick 50% ROI.

IOT is one of my favorite long term holdings and it made a measured move today after being given an award.


I can now give another one we bought shares and calls in. FMC

It is Ag Chemicals some of you likely know. They bought Tide Chemicals years back and the stock got hammered on forecasted weakness plus some expiration of labels. That said they have the best combination chemicals in the market and we bought shares and calls low $50's with design to trim into $56 and place a hedge strategy. I can see that making $100 next year.

Hope all is well!

PS - We had our 1st member inform us he made 500% on my SCHW call. Had a bunch of people in that trade selling along the way, but was proud to see someone take the targeted move for the big score!

SCHW has served me well this year. Took a nice profit on it for the second time yesterday.

Now that it's December. I want to start a Texags stock market thread 24 for 24.

I'm going to put together a list of 24 stocks that I believe will perform very well over the next year. One's that you can buy over the next 1-2 months (we will have entry targets) and hold through most of 24. Of course, some will hit targets early and be sold. Some might be longer duration holds. But I'm looking for the best combo of risk/reward and general upside in price.

I will vet any stock thrown my way and consider it. I will give reasons why it is or is not selected. Throw ideas my way and lets build our portfolio!

I will go ahead and say that outside of a few outliers, banks will likely not be making my list. I'm very bearish banks and financials and think 2024 election season is going to be a bad time for them. But I am always open to letting the charts speak. So no blinders here if the chart makes sense.

FUBO

ROKU

WWR

Heineken-Ashi said:

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Now that it's December. I want to start a Texags stock market thread 24 for 24.

I'm going to put together a list of 24 stocks that I believe will perform very well over the next year. One's that you can buy over the next 1-2 months (we will have entry targets) and hold through most of 24. Of course, some will hit targets early and be sold. Some might be longer duration holds. But I'm looking for the best combo of risk/reward and general upside in price.

I will vet any stock thrown my way and consider it. I will give reasons why it is or is not selected. Throw ideas my way and lets build our portfolio!

I will go ahead and say that outside of a few outliers, banks will likely not be making my list. I'm very bearish banks and financials and think 2024 election season is going to be a bad time for them. But I am always open to letting the charts speak. So no blinders here if the chart makes sense.

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I'm interested but I doubt my list will hit 24 because I don't zero in on that many because to get to 24 then I'd have to reach and post some that I haven't really done the proper DD on. I don't want anyone here to lose real money on a stock I don't really know just to meet a requirement.

I will post stocks to watch, but that doesn't mean buy them now. I will post my entries and exits, like I do now, but I'll post my list. If that's cool then I'm in.

If you're still long, might be a good time to rethink that.

This rally reminds me of some of the great 1980s and 1990s rallies where rates would go down and stocks would soar. I am not sure people realize how truly powerful this rally is. It is extraordinary...

— Jim Cramer (@jimcramer) December 1, 2023

ILMN. Activate a VRVP shelf on your chart and look going back to 2021. Recent bottom from a long bear market downtrend at $89 range put in a nice shelf that it's gotten above. MAJOR SHELF at $180-$215 range. 200 day EMA at $165. Risky, sure, but with stop at $89 and target at $200, tell me that risk reward isn't worth a try nuying here at $110.

Those on the call included Denver-based Westwater Resources and Canada-based Nouveau Monde Graphite. They called for the U.S. to impose tariffs on EV makers like @Tesla that have been waived, calling it a "game changer."

— Hannah Northey (@HMNorthey) November 30, 2023