That's a freaking monster gar. As a kid, I used to pick gar off in our creek with a .22. A .22 wouldn't even put a ding in that big, tough *******. Just wow!
Stock Markets
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Last: 15 hrs ago by Heineken-Ashi
Just heard the guy on CNBC, Tyler Mathison (sp?) say, the DJIA is approaching a "Death Cross". I posted about this last week, just remember if it bleeds, it leads.
looks like the last time we had a SPY death cross was back in March '22 and we had a steep rise in equities for about a 2 week period before tanking over a 3 month period...then subsequently, we had a golden cross in Feb '23 where we had a steep decline over a 5 week period before the big acceleration upward that we had this year to 52 week highs...primarily driven by Mag7...but regardless, it looks like we could have a rebound after the death cross for a couple weeks before the big fall...just relaying what happened after the last 2 events where 50 and 200 day MA's crossed...
A lot of that was supported by the AI buzz, no?EnronAg said:
looks like the last time we had a SPY death cross was back in March '22 and we had a steep rise in equities for about a 2 week period before tanking over a 3 month period...then subsequently, we had a golden cross in Feb '23 where we had a steep decline over a 5 week period before the big acceleration upward that we had this year to 52 week highs...primarily driven by Mag7...but regardless, it looks like we could have a rebound after the death cross for a couple weeks before the big fall...just relaying what happened after the last 2 events where 50 and 200 day MA's crossed...
FWIW, I don't put much stake in 'death crosses' on indices but I give them more weight in individual stocks where the company's fundamentals changed. I do like 'golden crosses' in individual stocks though.EnronAg said:
looks like the last time we had a SPY death cross was back in March '22 and we had a steep rise in equities for about a 2 week period before tanking over a 3 month period...then subsequently, we had a golden cross in Feb '23 where we had a steep decline over a 5 week period before the big acceleration upward that we had this year to 52 week highs...primarily driven by Mag7...but regardless, it looks like we could have a rebound after the death cross for a couple weeks before the big fall...just relaying what happened after the last 2 events where 50 and 200 day MA's crossed...
SPY approaching that May 5th gap around $407...let's see if it fills next week or if it just teases it like it did on the 9/21 gap...
EnronAg said:
SPY approaching that May 5th gap around $407...let's see if it fills next week or if it just teases it like it did on the 9/21 gap...
It's gonna fill it and more, more than likely. Look for continued weakness to close out the month. The end of the month will maintain the path the market has been on for the majority of the month, not always, but most of the time it will. JMO
Did this make the turn we're hoping for entry?Heineken-Ashi said:
Watch AAPL $164 range for a potential low. If it forms a little base, buy there and place stop immediately below. Target range is $173-$176 by end of November.
If it bounces before there, it's likely very short lived and pressure will remain down to $160.
Well now I'm getting interested again. Gonna take a look next and if we get to 4050 I'm going to fire up the Model Yugo !!
Very very close. If you are in or want to get in Monday. Stop should be $165.29.Towns03 said:Did this make the turn we're hoping for entry?Heineken-Ashi said:
Watch AAPL $164 range for a potential low. If it forms a little base, buy there and place stop immediately below. Target range is $173-$176 by end of November.
If it bounces before there, it's likely very short lived and pressure will remain down to $160.
I like it to have one finally push down into mid $164's. But limited risk here with decent upside. Can always try and re-engage if it fails and forms a new bottom.
All about limiting risk and maximizing gain.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Doing some trendline playing. I could see any scenario for AAPL to bounce from $162 or higher.
I still see massive potential for an earnings reversal, even if just temporary.
Draw trendlines from recent tops and recent bottoms. We're nearing the conversion point for the next upswing, whether bullish or simply another bear market bounce.
If playing shares, it will be tricky as we might not have a bottom yet, but I'd have stop no lower than $160. If playing options, you're going to be at the mercy of after hours earnings trading. Very risky.
I don't usually try to time bottoms. I wait for daily candle beer candle confirmation. But sometimes stocks reach inflection points. I'm hoping we have one here.
I still see massive potential for an earnings reversal, even if just temporary.
Draw trendlines from recent tops and recent bottoms. We're nearing the conversion point for the next upswing, whether bullish or simply another bear market bounce.
If playing shares, it will be tricky as we might not have a bottom yet, but I'd have stop no lower than $160. If playing options, you're going to be at the mercy of after hours earnings trading. Very risky.
I don't usually try to time bottoms. I wait for daily candle beer candle confirmation. But sometimes stocks reach inflection points. I'm hoping we have one here.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
SMCI - Still a top pick out of Louis Navellier stock service. Buy below $322/share.
nice find. I'll watch AAPL flow too, if I see a sizeable buy tomorrow I'll chime in here.
Bounce this morning. I expect it to be short lived.
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Any thoughts on BA? Bunch of A320s coming offline due to Pratt & Whitney engines and looks like Israel is saying a long war is ahead. BA is a big supplier for them on the defense side.
What's your thoughts on ALSN? Took a beating post earnings last week. Are all the sellers finally moved out of the stock? PE of 7.37. Fidelity equity score of 9.9. Targets of $65-70/share by analysts.
ProgN said:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4644940-cassava-sciences-stock-bullish-stance-biomarkers-ctad-data?mailingid=33195519&messageid=must_reads&serial=33195519.1761057&utm_campaign=Must%2BReads%2Brecurring%2B2023-10-30&utm_content=seeking_alpha&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=must_reads
Do you have a significant position in this?
I do at higher prices. I have not bought more on the way down because this stock will end up a zero or hero, there is no middle and I have enough exposure in it.
I'm in the exact same boat (and viewpoint) as you. In hindsight, I wish I had pursued my typical long-dated option strangle strategy, deploying less capital for the same hero/zero outcome. I would have cashed in nicely on the put side, while keeping hope alive with the way out-of-the-money calls.ProgN said:
I do at higher prices. I have not bought more on the way down because this stock will end up a zero or hero, there is no middle and I have enough exposure in it.
Louis Navellier (stock picker) has a buy below price of $56/share
looks like yesterday and today were the end of month window dressing that we've seen some of the last few month-ends...MM's using it to suck in some longs and all the CNBC talk of seasonality, etc. yada yada yada...anytime they trot out all these guys spewing "this is the best month historically for the market" and "shaping up for a year-end Santa Claus rally" it makes me want to play contrarian...I bet we fill that $407 SPY gap later this week or early next week...ProgN said:EnronAg said:
SPY approaching that May 5th gap around $407...let's see if it fills next week or if it just teases it like it did on the 9/21 gap...
It's gonna fill it and more, more than likely. Look for continued weakness to close out the month. The end of the month will maintain the path the market has been on for the majority of the month, not always, but most of the time it will. JMO
I can see it happening a little later than that, say around Thanksgiving week, but I agree the gap gets filled soon.
Although we could end today on a rally to 420. Which seems crazy.
Although we could end today on a rally to 420. Which seems crazy.
So maybe I shouldn't tell you, that historically, we will have a green November?EnronAg said:looks like yesterday and today were the end of month window dressing that we've seen some of the last few month-ends...MM's using it to suck in some longs and all the CNBC talk of seasonality, etc. yada yada yada...anytime they trot out all these guys spewing "this is the best month historically for the market" and "shaping up for a year-end Santa Claus rally" it makes me want to play contrarian...I bet we fill that $407 SPY gap later this week or early next week...ProgN said:EnronAg said:
SPY approaching that May 5th gap around $407...let's see if it fills next week or if it just teases it like it did on the 9/21 gap...
It's gonna fill it and more, more than likely. Look for continued weakness to close out the month. The end of the month will maintain the path the market has been on for the majority of the month, not always, but most of the time it will. JMO
Stocks down in Aug, Sept, and Oct?
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) October 31, 2023
Pretty rare, but the good news is November has been higher all 5 times. December does fairly well also. pic.twitter.com/PgvpGc1x1X
Man, this thread is a ghost down these days.
Gotta pay the $100/month
No you don't, I don't, no one does.Danwell Home said:
Gotta pay the $100/month
What this thread needs are ideas, questions, suggestions, etc. Push yourselves to identify stocks that you see potential in and bring them to the board for opinions. That's how everyone learns and refines their skills.
I'm just focused on the most recent ones that I've brought up and waiting out this difficult market. SMCI reports earnings today after the close. I'm not concerned about their earnings but I don't expect much because stocks aren't being rewarded very much right now, but I'm definitely interested in their forward guidance.
LUMN falling off the cliff right now...sub $1.
Buy!CheladaAg said:
LUMN falling off the cliff right now...sub $1.
SMCI smoked earnings estimates, now just waiting on the conference call and guidance.Quote:
Super Micro Computer Q1 EPS $3.43 Beats $3.20 Estimate, Sales $2.12B Beat $2.06B Estimate
ETA: BTW, That $3.20 estimate is the one after they guided higher last earnings release. It's previous estimates were in the $2.60ish range for today's release, iirc.
I was half kidding, but it seems like the hardcore traders on this thread moved over there or are just doing their own thing. I'm in SMCI and have been a good while so I enjoy the SMCI talk! I'm not a trader and don't put the effort into trying to be one at this time.ProgN said:No you don't, I don't, no one does.Danwell Home said:
Gotta pay the $100/month
What this thread needs are ideas, questions, suggestions, etc. Push yourselves to identify stocks that you see potential in and bring them to the board for opinions. That's how everyone learns and refines their skills.
I'm just focused on the most recent ones that I've brought up and waiting out this difficult market. SMCI reports earnings today after the close. I'm not concerned about their earnings but I don't expect much because stocks aren't being rewarded very much right now, but I'm definitely interested in their forward guidance.
I'll just say my story that I'm sure others have experienced some sort of iteration of this since covid that contributed to leaving the thread. Made a lot quick, lost a lot in a slow bleed, parlayed gains into WWR pipedream. Economy is "strong" but most see a house of cards, govt says everything is good and inflation is under control (Kevin Bacon "Remain Calm, All is Well" Animal House gif here), we see a different story through their actions and choose to park cash in t-bills at 5% or just index invest until judgement day.
Themes I'm looking at that could facilitate some discussions.
-Oil and gas E&Ps. I'm bullish oil over the next decade, fairly bearish on gas short term until LNG buildout online tail end 2024 into 2025.
-$GTLS. They have taken a hit the past month, I like their prospects as they help build LNG infrastructure in Europe. I will add to my position around $100
-Large caps had such a huge run, small caps closed the gap slightly but now back lower. Increasing allocation to small caps in retirement accounts.
-Overweight value for a while now
-Maybe 20% of investable assets allocated to SGOV or comparable short term t bill fund
-Waiting for PLTR to hit $20 so I can exit lol
-Interested in TLT and longer dated treasuries
-Interested in Apple tomorrow, felt like today doesn't matter and its all about what Apple says tomorrow so I bought protective $165P out to next week
-Oil and gas E&Ps. I'm bullish oil over the next decade, fairly bearish on gas short term until LNG buildout online tail end 2024 into 2025.
-$GTLS. They have taken a hit the past month, I like their prospects as they help build LNG infrastructure in Europe. I will add to my position around $100
-Large caps had such a huge run, small caps closed the gap slightly but now back lower. Increasing allocation to small caps in retirement accounts.
-Overweight value for a while now
-Maybe 20% of investable assets allocated to SGOV or comparable short term t bill fund
-Waiting for PLTR to hit $20 so I can exit lol
-Interested in TLT and longer dated treasuries
-Interested in Apple tomorrow, felt like today doesn't matter and its all about what Apple says tomorrow so I bought protective $165P out to next week
Ok. Been lurking for a while. Just started playing around with stocks after maxing everything else out. It's fun. So to bring a stock back to the board…
What about OMAB?
What about OMAB?
I'm not a day trader, I'm a momentum trader that applies a combination of technical analysis and fundamental analysis. My top 3 potential stocks are SMCI, POWL, and U.Danwell Home said:I was half kidding, but it seems like the hardcore traders on this thread moved over there or are just doing their own thing. I'm in SMCI and have been a good while so I enjoy the SMCI talk! I'm not a trader and don't put the effort into trying to be one at this time.ProgN said:No you don't, I don't, no one does.Danwell Home said:
Gotta pay the $100/month
What this thread needs are ideas, questions, suggestions, etc. Push yourselves to identify stocks that you see potential in and bring them to the board for opinions. That's how everyone learns and refines their skills.
I'm just focused on the most recent ones that I've brought up and waiting out this difficult market. SMCI reports earnings today after the close. I'm not concerned about their earnings but I don't expect much because stocks aren't being rewarded very much right now, but I'm definitely interested in their forward guidance.
I'll just say my story that I'm sure others have experienced some sort of iteration of this since covid that contributed to leaving the thread. Made a lot quick, lost a lot in a slow bleed, parlayed gains into WWR pipedream. Economy is "strong" but most see a house of cards, govt says everything is good and inflation is under control (Kevin Bacon "Remain Calm, All is Well" Animal House gif here), we see a different story through their actions and choose to park cash in t-bills at 5% or just index invest until judgement day.
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