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I bleed maroon
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Bocephus said:

I bleed maroon said:

Does anyone have thoughts about Eli Lilly (LLY)?

I have held the stock since 2010, and have a healthy 1600% gain, but have become nervous the past year, and have regularly bought protective puts on LLY. My theory is/was that something will halt the continuous melt-up, such as new side effects may materialize with their wonder weight loss drug, or Biden's insulin regulations will reduce their profitability. Needless to say, if you have consulted a chart, this hedging idea has not gone well for me.

So, as my last three sets of puts will expire worthless in November, would anyone recommend re-upping on some more? They are not cheap to buy, but I do NOT want to take the tax gain on a sale or covered call exercise, as this position is in a taxable account.


Maybe I'm a simpleton, but I thought if you sold at a profit and used the profit to buy up more stock before tax time, you did not have to pay taxes until you ultimately cashed out. Paying capital gains taxes on a 1600% gain does not seem all that hurtful in the end anyways. I imagine a CPA would have some ideas on how to lessen the tax burden.
Maybe I'm a simpleton, but I thought if you sold at a profit and used the profit to buy up more stock before tax time, you did not have to pay taxes until you ultimately cashed out.

Nope - tax is due the year the gain is realized. I like your way better, though.

Paying capital gains taxes on a 1600% gain does not seem all that hurtful in the end anyways.

To be clear, I want to defer the gain until full retirement, when my income tax rate should be lower. I don't need the money for anything else at this point.

I imagine a CPA would have some ideas on how to lessen the tax burden.

The best way is to clean out long term capital losses to offset the gain, but I used that strategy last year, and the cupboard is bare, so to speak (a nice problem to have, I guess).


I'm mainly looking for informed opinions on LLY stock trajectory, but there are no bad questions or ideas!
Heineken-Ashi
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I bleed maroon said:

Does anyone have thoughts about Eli Lilly (LLY)?

I have held the stock since 2010, and have a healthy 1600% gain, but have become nervous the past year, and have regularly bought protective puts on LLY. My theory is/was that something will halt the continuous melt-up, such as new side effects may materialize with their wonder weight loss drug, or Biden's insulin regulations will reduce their profitability. Needless to say, if you have consulted a chart, this hedging idea has not gone well for me.

So, as my last three sets of puts will expire worthless in November, would anyone recommend re-upping on some more? They are not cheap to buy, but I do NOT want to take the tax gain on a sale or covered call exercise, as this position is in a taxable account.
I don't like the looks of it on any timeframe longer than intraday. Very very overbought. Large volume shelves below between $350 and $450.

This is one that could keep melting up a bit longer. But I think the next couple of years should show significant weakness and a kind of "resetting" of its price and technical levels.

Currently, buyers are paying 85x book and 82x earnings. EPS are basically flat going back two years.

Just don't see the value here for buyers. Which means unless they have an earnings, revenue, and profit explosion, it's likely on it's way to a sizeable decrease before new buyers flood in.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Spoony Love
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Charismatic Megafauna said:

Spoony Love said:

So we are sitting near the middle of the 9/21 gap. Pushing higher today?

We're really just going to tease that gap and not fill it?
I guess tomorrow is the day it fills. If so, I think it sticks close to the top of that gap as there is volume between 438 and 443. I just don't see a scenario where it pushes higher than that zone. OA's analysis recently showing the outside bars seems to be the key to SPY and being confident of where the trading is headed.

But, if they decide to cross the gap overnight, then I'm looking for puts to open the day for a quick scalp.
Heineken-Ashi
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Looking at SPX, yesterday's beer candle is in the crosshairs. Today did not finish higher but held from becoming an indecision or reversal candle. There is more days ahead potentially of basing below yesterday's high. But that candle is the target. Once we break above it, we could be off to the races. As long as below it, you should have a hard stop at 4215 as the bottom can fall out quick below there. If we do break above it, I expect 4450-4500 within a couple days of confirmation.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Spoony Love
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Great analysis man. That gives some good concrete items to watch. Thanks!
I bleed maroon
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Heineken-Ashi said:

I bleed maroon said:

Does anyone have thoughts about Eli Lilly (LLY)?

I have held the stock since 2010, and have a healthy 1600% gain, but have become nervous the past year, and have regularly bought protective puts on LLY. My theory is/was that something will halt the continuous melt-up, such as new side effects may materialize with their wonder weight loss drug, or Biden's insulin regulations will reduce their profitability. Needless to say, if you have consulted a chart, this hedging idea has not gone well for me.

So, as my last three sets of puts will expire worthless in November, would anyone recommend re-upping on some more? They are not cheap to buy, but I do NOT want to take the tax gain on a sale or covered call exercise, as this position is in a taxable account.
I don't like the looks of it on any timeframe longer than intraday. Very very overbought. Large volume shelves below between $350 and $450.

This is one that could keep melting up a bit longer. But I think the next couple of years should show significant weakness and a kind of "resetting" of its price and technical levels.

Currently, buyers are paying 85x book and 82x earnings. EPS are basically flat going back two years.

Just don't see the value here for buyers. Which means unless they have an earnings, revenue, and profit explosion, it's likely on it's way to a sizeable decrease before new buyers flood in.
Thanks, that's kind of in line with what I've been thinking. If the reset could happen before 11/17/23, I have $400, 450 and 500 puts that could come into play, but I bought each tranche when they were barely out of the money.

If I were to pursue my current hedging strategy, I'd probably layer in some April '24 $550 puts, but they're expensive ($26-27 a contract). Would love to go out further to June, but you're at $32-33 for those. And I'm not committed enough to the possibility of a downturn to place that bet now, as this begins to eat into my hard-fought gains even more.


And, to Copa515: Thanks! I am surmising that gets approved as well, but wouldn't mind hedging against the risk in case it doesn't.
ProgN
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frankm01 said:

$POWL. Another Prog mention up nice today.
That lil' MFer pisses me off. I love the stock but was hoping for it to pullback but it hasn't and I don't want to make the same mistake I did with $SMCI when I started watching it last November below $75. I kept waiting for it to cool off to get in and I missed it's massive run. Now this little ******* is about to breakout instead of pullback to $70. I just know they'll smoke earnings and fly.
Diggity
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txaggie_08 said:

The acquirer's stock almost always goes down in these situations, at least temporarily.

Also, XOM diluting their stock with an all-stock purchase. I would assume they'll be very aggressive in stock buybacks in '24 with all that cash still on-hand. Or, maybe they acquire someone else with that pile of cash.
I guess CVX just gets dragged down on the ride? markets are silly
Heineken-Ashi
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Put buying is an incredibly difficult strategy on relatively stable company stocks. You pretty much have to time it perfect, which means you have to buy ITM and give yourself more than enough time. And a little bit of juice in the wrong direction can take you from theta not being a factor to absolutely kicking your ass. Then you are left waiting for either a miracle or having to take a loss to prevent further erosion. All because you are scared of taking some profits on a stock that has mooned.

My advice would be to keep selling OTM calls on a portion of you shares. If you get called out, consider selling a put to gain more premium and potentially get yourself back in the game at a lower price. Buying puts is throwing money away in hopes that you catch lightning in a bottle one time. Statistics show that form of hedging is actually not a profitable strategy and ends up costing more than it saves in the majority of situations.

Regarding the "reset", don't hold your breath. There's an entire 1-3 years of potential market turmoil ahead and I can't see this thing dropping that far that fast to get there this year. It would have to be toxic level earnings or news. Of course anything can happen, but I think your focus should be on lowering basis/taking profits and removing downside risk with stops.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
oldarmy1
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Nice Ash said:

Hezbollah has crossed the Northern Israeli border. US Embassy in Lebanon evacuated and and US citizens told to leave immediately.

Careful on bounces or getting long.


I'll relay something I told the members, recognizing the horrors of war. Markets love when things get blown up.

Not being insensitive here, just that when things get destroyed it's good for business. I'd avoid using any news to sway you from good trade setups.

I talked this morning about being cautious on stocks that breakout of resistance for being a trap. That's what happened and we got trapped on 3 stocks, exited one pretty quickly recognizing it, but had outlined a pullback day worth holding the other two. We bought/added calls at a technical identified level that happened to be the lows resulting in a good gain on one and return to initial entry level on the other. We added AMT calls on a technical trigger and I think the stock has found a bottom.

Happy trading!
ProgN
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oldarmy1 said:

Nice Ash said:

Hezbollah has crossed the Northern Israeli border. US Embassy in Lebanon evacuated and and US citizens told to leave immediately.

Careful on bounces or getting long.


I'll relay something I told the members, recognizing the horrors of war. Markets love when things get blown up.

Not being insensitive here, just that when things get destroyed it's good for business. I'd avoid using any news to sway you from good trade setups.

I talked this morning about being cautious on stocks that breakout of resistance for being a trap. That's what happened and we got trapped on 3 stocks, exited one pretty quickly recognizing it, but had outlined a pullback day worth holding the other two. We bought/added calls at a technical identified level that happened to be the lows resulting in a good gain on one and return to initial entry level on the other. We added AMT calls on a technical trigger and I think the stock has found a bottom.

Happy trading!
Research $POWL in depth, I think you'll like it and want it.
$30,000 Millionaire
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I can't pay attention a lot of the time but Randy does a great job with the service. I think anyone here would benefit from it.

Something that I'll say is that it's good to be around other traders.
tailgatetimer10
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Copa515 said:

My wife (pharmacist) thinks it's very likely Mounjaro gets FDA approval as a weight loss drug by the end of the year. That would be pretty big if it happens.

I would add that ultimately our goal should not be to minimize tax but to maximize after tax returns. It doesn't seem like it would take very many expiring puts to outweigh your long term capital gains tax, but I'm not an accountant so take that advice for what it's worth.
My wife said the same thing last week, she works in the field
FishrCoAg
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tailgatetimer10 said:

Copa515 said:

My wife (pharmacist) thinks it's very likely Mounjaro gets FDA approval as a weight loss drug by the end of the year. That would be pretty big if it happens.

I would add that ultimately our goal should not be to minimize tax but to maximize after tax returns. It doesn't seem like it would take very many expiring puts to outweigh your long term capital gains tax, but I'm not an accountant so take that advice for what it's worth.
My wife said the same thing last week, she works in the field


Tons of it already being used for that off label, plus the supply has been very short. Not sure how much the new approval will help the stock price except psychologically if they can't increase production. Also likely approval is already somewhat accounted for already.
DavysApprentice
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$30,000 Millionaire said:

I can't pay attention a lot of the time but Randy does a great job with the service. I think anyone here would benefit from it.

Something that I'll say is that it's good to be around other traders.


I will second this. Randy works hard to put everyone on good trades and it's been a tough market so far but if you have stayed disciplined you have made money through his service.

Also, every morning you get to listen to someone who knows what they are doing discuss market conditions and analyze stocks in depth. The amount of learning that takes place is not something you will find anywhere else.

I am very happy since joining and while I unfortunately can't be in on every call every day, I have learned more in the last couple months about the market and strategies than I have learned in the last 10 years prior. I am very excited about this service moving forward.
SW AG80
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FishrCoAg said:

tailgatetimer10 said:

Copa515 said:

My wife (pharmacist) thinks it's very likely Mounjaro gets FDA approval as a weight loss drug by the end of the year. That would be pretty big if it happens.

I would add that ultimately our goal should not be to minimize tax but to maximize after tax returns. It doesn't seem like it would take very many expiring puts to outweigh your long term capital gains tax, but I'm not an accountant so take that advice for what it's worth.
My wife said the same thing last week, she works in the field


Tons of it already being used for that off label, plus the supply has been very short. Not sure how much the new approval will help the stock price except psychologically if they can't increase production. Also likely approval is already somewhat accounted for already.
I agree with this. I think approval is already priced in. I looked at the stock but don't see a huge upside.
Anyone think differently? I'm always open to other thoughts.
oldarmy1
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Much appreciated!
EnronAg
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hot CPI...all time highs coming
Nice Ash
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This market is ridiculous! Can't imagine trying to trade fundamentals right now while everything seems to defy common sense and basic understanding of economics.

Technical Analysis is your friend!
EnronAg
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when mega-cap/Mag7 (whatever you wanna call that group) starts to crumble, that's when this thing goes off a cliff...I personally don't think they're gonna let that happen until after the Nov'24 election...if we are nearing all time highs before the election, I'm going Burry nuclear short a few months out
EnronAg
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Spoony Love said:

Charismatic Megafauna said:

Spoony Love said:

So we are sitting near the middle of the 9/21 gap. Pushing higher today?

We're really just going to tease that gap and not fill it?
I guess tomorrow is the day it fills. If so, I think it sticks close to the top of that gap as there is volume between 438 and 443. I just don't see a scenario where it pushes higher than that zone. OA's analysis recently showing the outside bars seems to be the key to SPY and being confident of where the trading is headed.

But, if they decide to cross the gap overnight, then I'm looking for puts to open the day for a quick scalp.
did it fill the gap overnight...I know it had to be close, but curious what you saw...you have puts this morning??
Spoony Love
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They did cross the gap overnight but that doesn't count. Gotts be filled during trading in my opinion. I'm looking up today and looking to fade this first move.

8:50: It should lose downward steam around 9am after the opening 30.
EnronAg
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agree...this is looking like a fake-out and wouldn't surprise me to close at HOD and fill the 9/21 gap today or tomorrow...whoever it was that said bear trap the other day was 1,000% right and they're about to trap these shorts...
Spoony Love
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SPY 5-day is about to cross the 12 day on the daily 10 min. it's crossed on the 1 min, and 5 min thus far, looking for the 10 min to cross to then drag the 15 min to cross to the upside. Then we may be off to close the gap today. Or at least a decent run at it.
Charismatic Megafauna
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And breaking out of a beautiful bull flag! LFG!
MS08
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KHC in buy territory? Sure seems like it.
Spoony Love
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SPY 5, 12, 20 MAs, 10 min, daily are converging at the close from yesterday. Should be a move soon.
bmoochie
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bmoochie said:

I think it was Baylor that originally brought this a few months back but TUP seems to be having another run at it. 2nd day in a row with bigger volume and movement.
Have some netfree shares now to see how much more this can run.
Brian Earl Spilner
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Small caps have taken a beating this month, way more than the market at large.

Buying some more TNA today. I think it should rally hard once it bounces with the rest of the market. Seems like a good swing opportunity.
EnronAg
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what the heck just happened?!?!?!

edit - nevermind...just saw really bad bond auction...
Spoony Love
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Exactly
Spoony Love
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That is some vigorous selling
Nice Ash
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Buy The F'n Dip got burned today...
Spoony Love
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Yes, I played a couple gap options early this morning. Got burned, dumped, bought a put at 431. About to turn my day green but I went with a small loss instead not sure if we see if a bounce into close.
Nice Ash
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Don't trust this little pop IMO
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