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ProgN
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Bird Poo said:

ProgN said:

spud1910 said:

$305 now. I'm still holding for now. I think Prog said it is one he has planted.
Correct, but my strategy may not match others. If anyone is pleased with their profit in a very short period, then book the win. Don't let greed evaporate a nice ROI, and booking a win is always a winning move, especially with the geopolitical events taking place around the world.

Sold for a 36% gain! Thanks again Prog. This one swings and I look forward to getting back in.
oldarmy1
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AG
Brewmaster said:

I'm going to give OA's trading service a full month and will report back here from time to time on my thoughts. I'm not starting yet, but will join up this week (when I get caught up at my real job).
Happy to have you check us out! Make sure you have Telegram and reach out to @JeffOA1 for link to free first week. Read the last page and wanted to provide some clarity. Anyone notice we've been in a correction since July 27th?

I would like any members who have been involved with the day-to-day instruction and trading to validate everything (claim) I am about to provide.

Shortly after the service opened, I spotted the outside bar (identified July 27th on the chart below) and from that INSTANT began a mantra for traders, especially low capitalized ones, to SIT ON THEIR HANDS. If trading downside is uncomfortable or foreign to someone then that was the overarching message. Therefore, how many Official Alert long trades do you think would be forthcoming? How many shares for long-term entries would you imagine I gave? If you answered "very few" you win a hotdog.

It wasn't an ideal market time for launching a trading service, but as many of the smaller account holders have told me, they are sure thankful to not have exposed their capital to the markets. There were 3 pure buy signals I initiated during these last 3.5 months. All 3 of them turned out to be EXACT lows. One was given while at a funeral, and I had given 3 stocks to buy in the premarket if certain indicators were given. I texted "BUY AGGRESSIVE" as the funeral was about to begin, having seen what I was waiting to verify. Those 3 stocks moved up $9, $12 and $21 respectively from that message.

The second buy signal had a similar opportunity with 2 stocks in particular that made $10+ moves. Then we turn to last week. I had given members my targets for a next bottom trigger. Never said any of these are THE bottom, simply opportunity trade bottoms. We triggered the flash breakdown move and had taken strategic positions to capitalize risk free on the (hopeful) flash. It was the first time I focused my premarket thoughts on the smaller account traders. "Now was the time to get your hands out from beneath your seats and participate."

I have always agonized over anyone losing money. On the previous page I saw people saying how confusing the markets are - going up when you think they would go down - and vice versa. I can assure you that that's a motivation for being able to demonstrate, in real time, exactly how I've managed trading, and market analysis represented over the past 10+ years on TexAgs. There's certainly nowhere to hide in real time trading.

Again, happy to have any involved daily members verify or refute ANY of the above, as not being 100% accurate.

Finally, I would be remiss not to extend some trading education experience on this thread. Outside Bars are searched for on daily, weekly and monthly timeframes. When you have an outside bar (the bar extends above and below the previous day/week/month) they are your first/highest technical indicator on future direction. The days after that is identified may trade above or below intraday(s), but it is the CLOSING candle above or below that should be your first technical signal of directional probability. Further, when you have one at the end of a long move (JULY 27) your very first instinctive thought needs to be "this could be a directional pivot". They (insitutions) use these to hide their technical signals, and you'll notice the July 27th OB was followed by multiple days trading INSIDE the range. Then the breakout occurs. Through experience I was immediately cautionary on seeing that July 27 outside bar. I made large share sales, layered Puts, entered covered calls - then waited for the outcome. I have bracketed each outside bar and take a look at how each ended up giving a technical signal on direction. The one last week was almost like giving me the biggest green light in a long time to buy like a mad man. Hope you add this to your arsenal, to gain an advantage over the confusion market makers revel in creating.

HoustonAg2014
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Not saying this means ANYTHING… But WWR tweeted a progress picture today for the first time since their last earnings call. They had been tweeting every month sometimes multiple times on their progress and hadn't in 2 months which was worrisome to me.

I wonder if a debt announcement is coming. Just an observation.
Boat Shoes
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AG
Or just posting pics of the new Texags Clubhouse.
Red Pear Luke (BCS)
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Sponsor
AG
PXD being acquired by XOM.

Cheers to you Farmer on the trade!

https://www.investors.com/news/exxon-mobil-seal-huge-shale-deal-pioneer-natural-resources/?src=A00220



HoustonAg2014
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HoustonAg2014 said:

NWLI anyone buy that today? Holy crap… we bought this morning after it was up 40% and it is still going. Definitely worth looking into.


These guys also got bought out yesterday morning I believe… Wow.
txaggie_08
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AG
$253/share value, all stock deal.

https://investor.exxonmobil.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1147/exxonmobil-announces-merger-with-pioneer-natural-resources
sts7049
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AG
XOM says, screw your quiet period
EnronAg
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AG
hot PPI...get ready for rocket up in this bizarro stock market...
southernskies
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Why would xom be down 4%? Isn't the buyout a good acquisition for them?
txaggie_08
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The acquirer's stock almost always goes down in these situations, at least temporarily.

Also, XOM diluting their stock with an all-stock purchase. I would assume they'll be very aggressive in stock buybacks in '24 with all that cash still on-hand. Or, maybe they acquire someone else with that pile of cash.
AgsMnn
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What does that mean for share holders of PXD?
txaggie_08
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I'd look for it to hold a value around $253 til close, at which time it'll convert to XOM stock. You get like 2.3 shares of XOM for every share of PXD.
Brian Earl Spilner
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AG
Thoughts on LUV at this level?
ProgN
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Brian Earl Spilner said:

Thoughts on LUV at this level?
Nice Ash
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Brian Earl Spilner said:

Thoughts on LUV at this level?
HIgh fuel prices will continue to hamper airlines IMO. Think it has more room to go lower, which is odd to say considering it is near COVID lows.

This administration has taken the position that they don't care about energy prices in the name of being 'green.' Things that are so reliant on energy costs are a hard one for me to personally jump in on right now.

If it is a buy and forget about, I'd think ~24-25 may be a good entry as that is within the monthly BB.
Bocephus
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Nice Ash said:

Brian Earl Spilner said:

Thoughts on LUV at this level?
HIgh fuel prices will continue to hamper airlines IMO. Think it has more room to go lower, which is odd to say considering it is near COVID lows.

This administration has taken the position that they don't care about energy prices in the name of being 'green.' Things that are so reliant on energy costs are a hard one for me to personally jump in on right now.


If it goes under 20, I'm in
TAMU ‘98 Ole Miss ‘21
Brian Earl Spilner
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AG
What am I missing?
Brian Earl Spilner
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Thanks.
I bleed maroon
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Bocephus said:

Nice Ash said:

Brian Earl Spilner said:

Thoughts on LUV at this level?
HIgh fuel prices will continue to hamper airlines IMO. Think it has more room to go lower, which is odd to say considering it is near COVID lows.

This administration has taken the position that they don't care about energy prices in the name of being 'green.' Things that are so reliant on energy costs are a hard one for me to personally jump in on right now.


If it goes under 20, I'm in
My tried and true personal rule:

Airlines are not an investment. They can be traded, but are not buy-and-hold candidates.

A friend who is a former large airline CEO agrees with this, generally. As I recall, his guidance was "What's the worst investment available? A poorly run airline. The second worst? A well run airline".
TheVarian
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Any thoughts on the war companies?

GD, RTX, Lockheed Martin etc.
ProgN
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Brian Earl Spilner said:

What am I missing?
Just an "Airplane" gif since you were asking about an airline.

I don't like playing with airlines but that's just my personal preference.
Brian Earl Spilner
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AG
LHX seems like a good entry. Took a harder hit than most others, and they recently acquired Aerojet Rocketdyne.
Bocephus
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I bleed maroon said:

Bocephus said:

Nice Ash said:

Brian Earl Spilner said:

Thoughts on LUV at this level?
HIgh fuel prices will continue to hamper airlines IMO. Think it has more room to go lower, which is odd to say considering it is near COVID lows.

This administration has taken the position that they don't care about energy prices in the name of being 'green.' Things that are so reliant on energy costs are a hard one for me to personally jump in on right now.


If it goes under 20, I'm in
My tried and true personal rule:

Airlines are not an investment. They can be traded, but are not buy-and-hold candidates.

A friend who is a former large airline CEO agrees with this, generally. As I recall, his guidance was "What's the worst investment available? A poorly run airline. The second worst? A well run airline".


Didn't one of their CEOs ask why anyone would buy airline stocks?
TAMU ‘98 Ole Miss ‘21
Nice Ash
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Hezbollah has crossed the Northern Israeli border. US Embassy in Lebanon evacuated and and US citizens told to leave immediately.

Careful on bounces or getting long.
AgCPA95
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I bleed maroon said:

Bocephus said:

Nice Ash said:

Brian Earl Spilner said:

Thoughts on LUV at this level?
HIgh fuel prices will continue to hamper airlines IMO. Think it has more room to go lower, which is odd to say considering it is near COVID lows.

This administration has taken the position that they don't care about energy prices in the name of being 'green.' Things that are so reliant on energy costs are a hard one for me to personally jump in on right now.


If it goes under 20, I'm in
My tried and true personal rule:

Airlines are not an investment. They can be traded, but are not buy-and-hold candidates.

A friend who is a former large airline CEO agrees with this, generally. As I recall, his guidance was "What's the worst investment available? A poorly run airline. The second worst? A well run airline".

This. Made some good money trading Continental and Express Jet back in the day. Seemed to just work in a channel bouncing back and forth.
Charismatic Megafauna
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Spoony Love said:

So we are sitting near the middle of the 9/21 gap. Pushing higher today?

We're really just going to tease that gap and not fill it?
I bleed maroon
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AgCPA95 said:

I bleed maroon said:

Bocephus said:

Nice Ash said:

Brian Earl Spilner said:

Thoughts on LUV at this level?
HIgh fuel prices will continue to hamper airlines IMO. Think it has more room to go lower, which is odd to say considering it is near COVID lows.

This administration has taken the position that they don't care about energy prices in the name of being 'green.' Things that are so reliant on energy costs are a hard one for me to personally jump in on right now.


If it goes under 20, I'm in
My tried and true personal rule:

Airlines are not an investment. They can be traded, but are not buy-and-hold candidates.

A friend who is a former large airline CEO agrees with this, generally. As I recall, his guidance was "What's the worst investment available? A poorly run airline. The second worst? A well run airline".

This. Made some good money trading Continental and Express Jet back in the day. Seemed to just work in a channel bouncing back and forth.

Same here, in the late 90's especially. CAL, ALK, and LUV were my favorite trades.
Spoony Love
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AG
That's what she said!
bmoochie
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I think it was Baylor that originally brought this a few months back but TUP seems to be having another run at it. 2nd day in a row with bigger volume and movement.
frankm01
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$POWL. Another Prog mention up nice today.
I bleed maroon
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Does anyone have thoughts about Eli Lilly (LLY)?

I have held the stock since 2010, and have a healthy 1600% gain, but have become nervous the past year, and have regularly bought protective puts on LLY. My theory is/was that something will halt the continuous melt-up, such as new side effects may materialize with their wonder weight loss drug, or Biden's insulin regulations will reduce their profitability. Needless to say, if you have consulted a chart, this hedging idea has not gone well for me.

So, as my last three sets of puts will expire worthless in November, would anyone recommend re-upping on some more? They are not cheap to buy, but I do NOT want to take the tax gain on a sale or covered call exercise, as this position is in a taxable account.
Nice Ash
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I bleed maroon said:

Does anyone have thoughts about Eli Lilly (LLY)?

I have held the stock since 2010, and have a healthy 1600% gain, but have become nervous the past year, and have regularly bought protective puts on LLY. My theory is/was that something will halt the continuous melt-up, such as new side effects may materialize with their wonder weight loss drug, or Biden's insulin regulations will reduce their profitability. Needless to say, if you have consulted a chart, this hedging idea has not gone well for me.

So, as my last three sets of puts will expire worthless in November, would anyone recommend re-upping on some more? They are not cheap to buy, but I do NOT want to take the tax gain on a sale or covered call exercise, as this position is in a taxable account.
You have two options basically; buy more puts and risk them being worthless again or sell covered calls until you get called out. Regardless you're taking the gain eventually. Does the tax outweight the risk of taking continuous losses on purchasing protective puts that, by your own admission, haven't gone well?
Bocephus
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I bleed maroon said:

Does anyone have thoughts about Eli Lilly (LLY)?

I have held the stock since 2010, and have a healthy 1600% gain, but have become nervous the past year, and have regularly bought protective puts on LLY. My theory is/was that something will halt the continuous melt-up, such as new side effects may materialize with their wonder weight loss drug, or Biden's insulin regulations will reduce their profitability. Needless to say, if you have consulted a chart, this hedging idea has not gone well for me.

So, as my last three sets of puts will expire worthless in November, would anyone recommend re-upping on some more? They are not cheap to buy, but I do NOT want to take the tax gain on a sale or covered call exercise, as this position is in a taxable account.


Maybe I'm a simpleton, but I thought if you sold at a profit and used the profit to buy up more stock before tax time, you did not have to pay taxes until you ultimately cashed out. Paying capital gains taxes on a 1600% gain does not seem all that hurtful in the end anyways. I imagine a CPA would have some ideas on how to lessen the tax burden.
TAMU ‘98 Ole Miss ‘21
Copa515
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My wife (pharmacist) thinks it's very likely Mounjaro gets FDA approval as a weight loss drug by the end of the year. That would be pretty big if it happens.

I would add that ultimately our goal should not be to minimize tax but to maximize after tax returns. It doesn't seem like it would take very many expiring puts to outweigh your long term capital gains tax, but I'm not an accountant so take that advice for what it's worth.
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