MSFT in a downward channel since earnings. I'm keeping my eye on it for a reversal to enter.
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Last: 22 hrs ago by Heineken-Ashi
One of these days XOM will hold 110.
10yr us gov bonds at hit new high at 4.342%. Last seen in Nov 2007. ~ 16 years ago! That will be a macro against stocks.
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Txducker said:
10yr us gov bonds at hit new high at 4.342%. Last seen in Nov 2007. ~ 16 years ago! That will be a macro against stocks.
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Bubble is gotta pop soon. Things don't make sense. Auto loan delinquencies are the highest since 2006. FedEx saying they might have too many pilots (not flying as many packages). Yellow trucking company files for BK. Student loan payments resume next month.
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Ags2013 said:
I've been noting a lot of attention on PYPL. Near 52 Wk Low and looks to have a typically decent bounce at this level. I don't read charts quite as well as ya'll but it looks like an opportunity.
Been thinking about moving on this one and just did a Sep 15 $57c. Seems safe, but some of the ones that seem the safest often end up in the red but lets see.
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Country needs pain. This is not sustainable and having the government trying to "fix" the problems only makes things worse.Red Pear Jack said:
Bubble is gotta pop soon. Things don't make sense. Auto loan delinquencies are the highest since 2006. FedEx saying they might have too many pilots (not flying as many packages). Yellow trucking company files for BK. Student loan payments resume next month.
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Red Pear Jack said:
Bubble is gotta pop soon. Things don't make sense. Auto loan delinquencies are the highest since 2006. FedEx saying they might have too many pilots (not flying as many packages). Yellow trucking company files for BK. Student loan payments resume next month.
This is the one that I think is going to hit the most. People don't realize how much money has been moved from paying student loans to using it in the consumer economy instead. Not sure how much impact it'll have , but it'll def have a noticeable impact.
Yup, the average student loan payment is ~$503. That will kill a lot of household discretionary funds quick.
https://educationdata.org/average-student-loan-payment
https://educationdata.org/average-student-loan-payment
2030 Depression
These guys make some pretty compelling points... worth the listen
https://vimeo.com/850140161/deb3a8de45?utm_campaign=Executive%20Virtual%20Keynote%20Series&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9KPW2tlp3RISqYYEbUM2qJB65Bh7F2dvIuL5roK42jwpCoeKR8Yp8oDNYYPV7_QkFj7BSe&utm_source=All+Customers+08152023&utm_campaign=88458f1171-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2023_03_29_01_54_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_-4766d79a61-%5BLIST_EMAIL_ID%5D
These guys make some pretty compelling points... worth the listen
https://vimeo.com/850140161/deb3a8de45?utm_campaign=Executive%20Virtual%20Keynote%20Series&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9KPW2tlp3RISqYYEbUM2qJB65Bh7F2dvIuL5roK42jwpCoeKR8Yp8oDNYYPV7_QkFj7BSe&utm_source=All+Customers+08152023&utm_campaign=88458f1171-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2023_03_29_01_54_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_-4766d79a61-%5BLIST_EMAIL_ID%5D
I've stopped trying to figure out which piece of bad news is going to result in a crash. None of these topics are new or surprising. It's probably going to happen once everybody feels the soft landing is behind us.
Thank you for posting. Compelling indeed.Ag92NGranbury said:
2030 Depression
These guys make some pretty compelling points... worth the listen
https://vimeo.com/850140161/deb3a8de45?utm_campaign=Executive%20Virtual%20Keynote%20Series&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9KPW2tlp3RISqYYEbUM2qJB65Bh7F2dvIuL5roK42jwpCoeKR8Yp8oDNYYPV7_QkFj7BSe&utm_source=All+Customers+08152023&utm_campaign=88458f1171-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2023_03_29_01_54_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_-4766d79a61-%5BLIST_EMAIL_ID%5D
2030 might be the end of a major downturn. And yes, as they say, it could last years.
But go back and look through history. Major economic downturns don't happen in one phase. They have a beginning, and then a multi year recovery, and then finally, an end.
The most prominent and relevant example is 2000-2009. The dotcom bust was Phase 1. Then you had the recovery to previous highs, then the final phase and bottoming event. That was ONE event, not three.
There's an argument to be made that 2022 was Phase 1 and that we are somewhere in the middle Phase. We could theoretically have a major market downturn next year around the election and THAT merely be the end of a longer term Phase 1. We could also still see economic output rise and make new stock market highs. While the general conditions are present and ripe for the next depression, when, what, and how it triggers is not set in stone. But we all know that the overall economic conditions of this country, and the world, literally can't get back to reasonable levels without a major major correcting event. It is coming. Ignoring that reality is going to be more costly than preparing for it, even if it takes another 7 years to happen.
But go back and look through history. Major economic downturns don't happen in one phase. They have a beginning, and then a multi year recovery, and then finally, an end.
The most prominent and relevant example is 2000-2009. The dotcom bust was Phase 1. Then you had the recovery to previous highs, then the final phase and bottoming event. That was ONE event, not three.
There's an argument to be made that 2022 was Phase 1 and that we are somewhere in the middle Phase. We could theoretically have a major market downturn next year around the election and THAT merely be the end of a longer term Phase 1. We could also still see economic output rise and make new stock market highs. While the general conditions are present and ripe for the next depression, when, what, and how it triggers is not set in stone. But we all know that the overall economic conditions of this country, and the world, literally can't get back to reasonable levels without a major major correcting event. It is coming. Ignoring that reality is going to be more costly than preparing for it, even if it takes another 7 years to happen.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
well i have dec VIX 25C's so bring on the crash now
Don't forget the China credit meltdown that's coming.Orlando Ayala Cant Read said:Red Pear Jack said:
Bubble is gotta pop soon. Things don't make sense. Auto loan delinquencies are the highest since 2006. FedEx saying they might have too many pilots (not flying as many packages). Yellow trucking company files for BK. Student loan payments resume next month.
This is the one that I think is going to hit the most. People don't realize how much money has been moved from paying student loans to using it in the consumer economy instead. Not sure how much impact it'll have , but it'll def have a noticeable impact.
Heineken-Ashi said:
2030 might be the end of a major downturn. And yes, as they say, it could last years.
But go back and look through history. Major economic downturns don't happen in one phase. They have a beginning, and then a multi year recovery, and then finally, an end.
The most prominent and relevant example is 2000-2009. The dotcom bust was Phase 1. Then you had the recovery to previous highs, then the final phase and bottoming event. That was ONE event, not three.
There's an argument to be made that 2022 was Phase 1 and that we are somewhere in the middle Phase. We could theoretically have a major market downturn next year around the election and THAT merely be the end of a longer term Phase 1. We could also still see economic output rise and make new stock market highs. While the general conditions are present and ripe for the next depression, when, what, and how it triggers is not set in stone. But we all know that the overall economic conditions of this country, and the world, literally can't get back to reasonable levels without a major major correcting event. It is coming. Ignoring that reality is going to be more costly than preparing for it, even if it takes another 7 years to happen.
Not a disagreement, just a point of contention, if you believe that, would you not consider phase 1 of the current downturn to be 2020?
I guess theoretically it could be. But the fact that the market rallied on government stimulus 1400 points SPX above the pre-drop high's kind of tells me that 2020 was more likely a late-to-the-party finish to 2018's drop.Definitely Not A Cop said:Heineken-Ashi said:
2030 might be the end of a major downturn. And yes, as they say, it could last years.
But go back and look through history. Major economic downturns don't happen in one phase. They have a beginning, and then a multi year recovery, and then finally, an end.
The most prominent and relevant example is 2000-2009. The dotcom bust was Phase 1. Then you had the recovery to previous highs, then the final phase and bottoming event. That was ONE event, not three.
There's an argument to be made that 2022 was Phase 1 and that we are somewhere in the middle Phase. We could theoretically have a major market downturn next year around the election and THAT merely be the end of a longer term Phase 1. We could also still see economic output rise and make new stock market highs. While the general conditions are present and ripe for the next depression, when, what, and how it triggers is not set in stone. But we all know that the overall economic conditions of this country, and the world, literally can't get back to reasonable levels without a major major correcting event. It is coming. Ignoring that reality is going to be more costly than preparing for it, even if it takes another 7 years to happen.
Not a disagreement, just a point of contention, if you believe that, would you not consider phase 1 of the current downturn to be 2020?
The question I will always wonder is if all time high's would have been over 5000 had Covid not been a thing. What if Trump was re-elected?
I guess you can play those games all through history. Catalysts come from every direction and usually when least expected.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Alan and Brian are both extremely bright. I've had the chance to sit and talk with them twice at length, and everything they do is based on solid fundamentals.Ag92NGranbury said:
2030 Depression
These guys make some pretty compelling points... worth the listen
https://vimeo.com/850140161/deb3a8de45?utm_campaign=Executive%20Virtual%20Keynote%20Series&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9KPW2tlp3RISqYYEbUM2qJB65Bh7F2dvIuL5roK42jwpCoeKR8Yp8oDNYYPV7_QkFj7BSe&utm_source=All+Customers+08152023&utm_campaign=88458f1171-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2023_03_29_01_54_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_-4766d79a61-%5BLIST_EMAIL_ID%5D
They themselves admit the exact timing is a crapshoot. You never know how a government will react to a crises, or to what degree. But they've accounted for what they believe is the most rational approach. They see the better part of the next decade marked by severe inflation, and it finally gets beyond our control as a country and as a central bank in about 2030.
I will say that they are far, far more accurate than the federal reserve has ever dreamed of being.
Only thing to remove us from this spiral is a complete shift in public policy including on skilled/unskilled immigration reform as well as positive developments in productivity from things like AI.
Red Pear Jack said:
Bubble is gotta pop soon. Things don't make sense. Auto loan delinquencies are the highest since 2006. FedEx saying they might have too many pilots (not flying as many packages). Yellow trucking company files for BK. Student loan payments resume next month.
New business property insurance is insane… I'm getting used to delivering bad news.
Ags2013 said:
Yup, the average student loan payment is ~$503. That will kill a lot of household discretionary funds quick.
https://educationdata.org/average-student-loan-payment
How are they going to afford their Model 3s?! And star bucks!?!
January reinsurance renewals we're rough and it's being passed down. Not going to let up any time soon.
Nope. I wonder what the future holds… I feel pretty confident 2% wind and hail deductibles will be the standard before long.
thanks for the response...
i follow a lot of economics... i had never seen their stuff before, but i was very impressed at their fundamental approach to future economic issues
they seem very pragmatic & i enjoyed their forecast
i follow a lot of economics... i had never seen their stuff before, but i was very impressed at their fundamental approach to future economic issues
they seem very pragmatic & i enjoyed their forecast
Orlando Ayala Cant Read
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Gonna try and enter into a SGRY $22..50 C for October in the morning.
bmoochie said:
Kiss of death
https://Twitter.com/jimcramer/status/1693905814484889910?s=46&t=8W3eXA5ZlxRmsveUwzB2DA
That means its time to start buying puts.
That's probably a good guess for North Texas.
irish pete ag06 said:
Nope. I wonder what the future holds… I feel pretty confident 2% wind and hail deductibles will be the standard before long.
Several companies will not insure areas of Plano at this point.
Finding 1% that does not break the bank takes some effort at least on my end.
Most quotes are 2% and they are getting the insured values up to the point that you will basically be just paying for your own roof out of pocket...
planoaggie123 said:irish pete ag06 said:
Nope. I wonder what the future holds… I feel pretty confident 2% wind and hail deductibles will be the standard before long.
Several companies will not insure areas of Plano at this point.
Finding 1% that does not break the bank takes some effort at least on my end.
Most quotes are 2% and they are getting the insured values up to the point that you will basically be just paying for your own roof out of pocket...
Yesterday, I came full circle back to State Farm after several years of annual shopping around with a broker. Located in McKinney, but was becoming harder and harder to find and insurer. 1% hail deductible.
Killin Me Smalls said:planoaggie123 said:irish pete ag06 said:
Nope. I wonder what the future holds… I feel pretty confident 2% wind and hail deductibles will be the standard before long.
Several companies will not insure areas of Plano at this point.
Finding 1% that does not break the bank takes some effort at least on my end.
Most quotes are 2% and they are getting the insured values up to the point that you will basically be just paying for your own roof out of pocket...
Yesterday, I came full circle back to State Farm after several years of annual shopping around with a broker. Located in McKinney, but was becoming harder and harder to find and insurer. 1% hail deductible.
Liberty and Geico said "no thanks" due to location + value.
Travelers offered but only 2%.
NatGen and Mercury and Progressive did offer 1% so working out between those 3....
edit: sorry...way off topic for this thread. my last post on this.
Missed Car Payments A Menacing Sign for New Car Market
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) August 21, 2023
Severe delinquency for auto loans, based on seasonalized rates, is at the highest since at least 2006, and the trend could be an ominous sign. With the average price of a new General Motors vehicle at $52,000 and new car…
Related to student loan payments that will start soon. If people cannot make their car payments, imagine the extra $500 payment that needs to be made for the student loans and what that will do for consumption and the economy. The strength of the consumer and the excess liquidity has kept the market going. Earnings also have been good enough to keep the market going higher.
The car industry has been kind of interesting to me since the EV explosion. It seems to me (based on nothing but my opinion) the guy that is driving a Tesla around right now is the same guy that was driving a BMW, Mercedes, or Jaguar around 10 years ago. You would think you would be hearing about those companies really struggling, but I admit I'm not the most in tune with the industry.
Do y'all think there is any kind of substance to that?
Do y'all think there is any kind of substance to that?
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Orlando Ayala Cant Read said:
Gonna try and enter into a SGRY $22..50 C for October in the morning.
What's the story here? Looks like a buy-write opportunity to me?
planoaggie123 said:irish pete ag06 said:
Nope. I wonder what the future holds… I feel pretty confident 2% wind and hail deductibles will be the standard before long.
Several companies will not insure areas of Plano at this point.
Finding 1% that does not break the bank takes some effort at least on my end.
Most quotes are 2% and they are getting the insured values up to the point that you will basically be just paying for your own roof out of pocket...
This seems odd to me. I'm we live in Colorado, where hail storms are very normal. We have a $1000 deductible for hail, and a 1% Would be closer to $10,000. For that, our home insurance premium is only $1500/year, all in. Is Texas that much different ?
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