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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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In reply to FTAG 2000 • 5:22p, 6/23/23
FTAG 2000 said:
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Paging bmoochie

Add these to my list from yesterday.

- The Congressionally mandated sale of crude from the SPR (26 million barrels...really not much) comes to an end in June.
- The Congressionally mandated sale of 140 million barrels to take place in 2024 through 2027 was canceled in the last Congress. No more oil is coming out of that facility.
- In Beijing, power demand is up 30% so far this quarter from the same period a year earlier. In Shanghai coal plant burns up to 800 tons an hour, yet this provides less then 7% of the cities needs. The China economic startup is just warming up.
- EIA NG report is bullish. The effects of U.S. gas well declines are starting to show up.
- US the Sec of Trans says that air travel is booming and IEA says 2023 will be ATH for demand. (.....but oil lingering in a $70 range due to lack of demand?) TSA checkpoint numbers are running par with 2019 numbers...surprising with the higher air fares. Apparently the US consumer is not going to let higher fares keep them from traveling.
- Netherlands closing Groningen (massive EU NG production) closing due to seismic activity caused by withdrawals, TTF responding in kind upward ... huge bonus for XOM (that supplies much NG to EU)
- Chinese authorities have issued a third batch of crude oil import quotas to refiners for 2023, with overall allowances up by 20% in the first half of this year compared to the same period of 2022.
- Saudi voluntary crude oil cut of 1 million bpd starts July 1st. (This voluntary cut will extend into August, bookmark it)

July is a crossroads for the year.

I picked up 2 bottles of Buffalo Trace Bourbon yesterday. My liquor store guy said comeback on Friday for a surprise. (Yea me!)

Can't wait to see what he surprises with. Gonna need that update stat!
The shipment didn't come in Friday June 16th.
It came today.
Here's what I got.

Stagg
Kentucky Straight Bourbon Whiskey
65% ALC by VOL
130 Proof 22B (22nd Batch)
Barrel Proof * Unfiltered


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ProgN
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7:54p, 6/23/23
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12228381/Wagner-mercenaries-killed-RUSSIAN-missile-strikes.html

Quote:
Fears of a coup in Russia are growing this morning as Wagner private army chief Yevgeny Progozhin declared war on Moscow's military leadership and claimed his forces have moved into the Russian city of Rostov, facing no resistance.

Military vehicles were seen on the streets of Moscow and Rostov-on-Don, where Russia's military headquarters for the war in Ukraine is based, after Prigozhin called for an armed rebellion in a direct challenge to the Kremlin.

Prigozhin said his troops crossed into Russia as he called for the ousting of the defense minister and vowed to punish military leaders - whom he accused of killing 'hundreds' of his fighters in air strikes and hiding the bodies of a further 2,000.

This is concerning and will probably be bad for the markets if it goes hot.
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Brewmaster
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In reply to ProgN • 10:21p, 6/23/23
AG
Straight into Moscow?? snow ball's chance in hell. It is 300 miles from Ukraine border to Moscow. I'm sorry, that entire article is propaganda. I'm hearing quite the contrary. Ukraine forces have not even come close to crossing over into Russia. Russia is kicking their asses, they're basically just sending in Ukrainian troops to get slaughtered, sad stuff. They're now wanting all men from age 18 to 59 to report for duty - awful.
Sorry, I'll get off my soap box - here's a good map though:

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ProgN
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In reply to Brewmaster • 10:23p, 6/23/23
This isn't Ukrainians, it's the mercenaries from what I've read but I haven't followed this closely to be able to debate anything about it.
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Definitely Not A Cop
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10:37p, 6/23/23
AG
From F16:





They also shot down a Russian helicopter a few hours ago.
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pumpjack2
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 11:15p, 6/23/23
AG
Would love to hear you elaborate on the specifics of your policy. I may adopt it myself. Cause I lost my ass today for sure trying to force things (trading very small at this point, so nothing severe in terms of total account value, but wiped out this weeks solid gains with a couple trades where I was admittedly trying to see things that weren't there).

I've been a lurker for a couple years, and just recently decided to go whole hog into trading seriously. I branched out and tried finding my own plays this week using a couple different scanners on TOS, and basically using model T to try and play retracement moves either way. It worked like a charm all week. It felt very empowering being able to find plays without OA and the rest of the forum holding my hand.

Then this morning I felt that I "needed" to make a coupe trades to have a chance at a "successful" day. Hence the forcing of moves. Lesson learned for sure.

I've decided I'm going to trade small until I'm confident in my strategies. I've found out that my strategies are sound (at least I think so), but I think what you're touching on is more so related to the psychology of trading. And yeah, would love to hear you elaborate on your don't-lose-your-keister Friday policy.

I've silently learned a ton from you over the last couple years. And greatly appreciate all the knowledge and humor you share here daily. Cheers.
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Brian Earl Spilner
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11:29p, 6/23/23
AG
Gonna be hard to ignore DIS if it dips below $85. That was probably my best stock play of 2020.
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lobwedgephil
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In reply to pumpjack2 • 12:11a, 6/24/23
pumpjack2 said:
Would love to hear you elaborate on the specifics of your policy. I may adopt it myself. Cause I lost my ass today for sure trying to force things (trading very small at this point, so nothing severe in terms of total account value, but wiped out this weeks solid gains with a couple trades where I was admittedly trying to see things that weren't there).

I've been a lurker for a couple years, and just recently decided to go whole hog into trading seriously. I branched out and tried finding my own plays this week using a couple different scanners on TOS, and basically using model T to try and play retracement moves either way. It worked like a charm all week. It felt very empowering being able to find plays without OA and the rest of the forum holding my hand.

Then this morning I felt that I "needed" to make a coupe trades to have a chance at a "successful" day. Hence the forcing of moves. Lesson learned for sure.

I've decided I'm going to trade small until I'm confident in my strategies. I've found out that my strategies are sound (at least I think so), but I think what you're touching on is more so related to the psychology of trading. And yeah, would love to hear you elaborate on your don't-lose-your-keister Friday policy.

I've silently learned a ton from you over the last couple years. And greatly appreciate all the knowledge and humor you share here daily. Cheers.
Don't lose your a-s on Friday is a trading term from seasoned traders. Have a lot of things going against you, end of week contracts expiring, etc. Very easy to turn a good week into a bad week in Friday. Keep your discipline, your rules, and respect your process. 30k has amazing advice for all of us.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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8:59a, 6/24/23
AG
Be ready for limit down on Monday. Not saying it will happen but be prepared.

If it does, just get out of the way.
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wanderer
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 9:44a, 6/24/23
That's a bit of an odd thing for you to come out and warn against. What makes you mention that?
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$30,000 Millionaire
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In reply to pumpjack2 • 10:31a, 6/24/23
AG
Just very simply, don't blow a good week.

Fridays normally have lower volume and there are forces at play around squaring options and getting prices to levels that market makers are comfortable with. Yesterday had all the markings of that - gap down that didn't fill, option squaring (Tesla).

Friday afternoon in particular is literally the worst time to trade second to holidays. Lottos are cool of course but I wouldn't do anything major.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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In reply to wanderer • 10:32a, 6/24/23
AG
wanderer said:
That's a bit of an odd thing for you to come out and warn against. What makes you mention that?


You following the Russia situation?
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$30,000 Millionaire
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10:47a, 6/24/23
AG
Model T on nat gas would be bananas.
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ryanhnc10
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 10:55a, 6/24/23
AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:
Model T on nat gas would be bananas.


Yes please! I've been waiting patiently. Not sure if you technically call this a reverse head and shoulders, but looks like it could easily go up a few bucks


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$30,000 Millionaire
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10:59a, 6/24/23
AG
I'd be shocked to see this, but someone out there is betting on it.

I think we get something more like -2%




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BaylorSpineGuy
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11:09a, 6/24/23
Lol and shocker of shockers, Tom Lee thinks Russia situation is bullish hahahaha! Thinks it'll lead to long term international peace. The fourth turning is beginning, not ending, Tom. Lol
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Brian Earl Spilner
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11:49a, 6/24/23
AG
I jumped in on UNG at $7.15. A little late, but could've been worse.

Relatively small position but might add to it if it continues to rally. Just trying to make back some of the losses from BOIL. I plan to hold this on a much longer time frame. Don't mind sitting on it for a year if need be.
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techno-ag
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In reply to Brian Earl Spilner • 11:53a, 6/24/23
AG
Brian Earl Spilner said:
I jumped in on UNG at $7.15. A little late, but could've been worse.

Relatively small position but might add to it if it continues to rally. Just trying to make back some of the losses from BOIL. I plan to hold this on a much longer time frame. Don't mind sitting on it for a year if need be.
That seems wise. It should go up at some point and less theta loss over the long term.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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2:47p, 6/24/23
AG
Looks like Wagner guy doesn't have the stones to take on Putin.
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spud1910
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 3:15p, 6/24/23
AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:
Looks like Wagner guy doesn't have the stones to take on Putin.
Talking to people in Moscow, Putin is quite well protected. I suspect Prigozhin signed his own death warrant.
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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to spud1910 • 3:21p, 6/24/23
spud1910 said:
$30,000 Millionaire said:
Looks like Wagner guy doesn't have the stones to take on Putin.
Talking to people in Moscow, Putin is quite well protected. I suspect Prigozhin signed his own death warrant.


Question is if something more sinister is at hand. He changed plans after talking to lukashenko in Belarus. Was something further planned?

But yes, looks like much ado about nothing for now. A shame national media does such a lousy job now. Twitter is owning public media in coverage.

Nm.

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spud1910
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 3:37p, 6/24/23
AG
BaylorSpineGuy said:
spud1910 said:
$30,000 Millionaire said:
Looks like Wagner guy doesn't have the stones to take on Putin.
Talking to people in Moscow, Putin is quite well protected. I suspect Prigozhin signed his own death warrant.


Question is if something more sinister is at hand. He changed plans after talking to lukashenko in Belarus. Was something further planned?

But yes, looks like much ado about nothing for now. A shame national media does such a lousy job now. Twitter is owning public media in coverage.

Nm.

Who knows at this point. I think the big thing is to realize we can't apply "American Logic" to determine what the next move will be.
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Brewmaster
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 4:16p, 6/24/23
AG
msm is constant spin, most should know that by now, especially with this "war". Twitter is the news now... This guy has been spot on about everything...



and this, lol

Phil CBR
@czechbabesrock
2h
1. Pentagon finds $6.2bn in accounting error
2. Pays Wagner to stage a coup using the $6.2bn
3. Wagner stages coup attempt as requested
4. Wagner calls off the coup attempt
5. Wagner keeps the $6.2bn
6. Pentagon gets played like a fiddle #RussiaCoup


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Brewmaster
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4:20p, 6/24/23
AG
aaaand it's over, lol:

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techno-ag
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In reply to Brewmaster • 4:24p, 6/24/23
AG
Brewmaster said:
aaaand it's over, lol:

Markets will yawn on Monday then.
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TheVarian
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In reply to Brewmaster • 6:26p, 6/24/23
AG
This is really my thought. Scary stuff but it was a gamble if we did in fact do something like this. And we got played lololol.
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techno-ag
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1:50p, 6/25/23
AG
BITX, a 2x leveraged bitcoin ETF, debuts Tuesday.

https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2023/06/23/leveraged-bitcoin-futures-etf-to-start-trading-tuesday-sponsor-says/

Quote:
Volatility Shares' 2x Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITX) will become the first leveraged crypto ETF available in the United States after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) let it go effective on Friday, an executive at the company told CoinDesk.
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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to techno-ag • 2:24p, 6/25/23
techno-ag said:
BITX, a 2x leveraged bitcoin ETF, debuts Tuesday.

https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2023/06/23/leveraged-bitcoin-futures-etf-to-start-trading-tuesday-sponsor-says/

Quote:
Volatility Shares' 2x Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITX) will become the first leveraged crypto ETF available in the United States after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) let it go effective on Friday, an executive at the company told CoinDesk.


How does the old adage go?

"When the ducks quack, feed them."

*Borrowed from The Price of Time….actually specifically in reference to crypto.
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Boat Shoes
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2:38p, 6/25/23
AG
I've never purchased crypto. If I wanted to invest in Bitcoin but not take the security risk of owning the actual coins themself, is the new Black rock ETF the best way to do so?
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techno-ag
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In reply to Boat Shoes • 2:42p, 6/25/23
AG
Boat Shoes said:
I've never purchased crypto. If I wanted to invest in Bitcoin but not take the security risk of owning the actual coins themself, is the new Black rock ETF the best way to do so?
The BlackRock one hasn't been approved yet. Folks are expecting it to be, though. Maybe in a few months?

https://www.newsbtc.com/news/bitcoin/when-blackrock-bitcoin-etf-timeline-implications/#:~:text=Market%20experts%20give%20the%20BlackRock,as%20clear%3A%2033%3A0.
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Heineken-Ashi
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6:19p, 6/25/23
Why not just buy Bitcoin?
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX

“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
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Chipotlemonger
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 6:22p, 6/25/23
AG
Same reason people like to use REIT ETFs. It's just easier to trade on and more familiar. Don't need to open up a 2nd platform and can trade in $ value.
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wanderer
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In reply to Boat Shoes • 7:13p, 6/25/23
MARA, RIOT
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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 7:18p, 6/25/23
Heineken-Ashi said:
Why not just buy Bitcoin?


Why buy BTC when you can buy it 2x leveraged?! Literally can't go tits up.

For any Model T followers, the ATH/ATL retracement is around $34K, and the all time high against recent low is about $41-42K. It should be noted that after the ATH, when it legged down before rebounding, it did NOT achieve Model T before taking the final leg down to $15K.
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BaylorSpineGuy
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9:42p, 6/25/23
Perusing a few of the indexes tonight….FTSE (UK) is about to complete an inverted cup (rounded top) pattern. Chart looks weak nearing critical support. Worth keeping an eye on…

I've never traded that index but I do like to see what indexes are doing worldwide to assess market/economy strength.
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