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Brian Earl Spilner
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8:54a, 6/16/23
AG
Anyone know of a way to create alerts for two stock prices diverging?

For instance, if the delta between GOOGL and AAPL were to grow to 5% in either direction starting today?
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oldarmy1
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8:55a, 6/16/23
AG
RIVN testing $15.80 long term major resistance. Eventually that is going to break and have a big move. I always trim calls at these key levels in case it can't break yet and recycles through a consolidation.
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FTAG 2000
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In reply to oldarmy1 • 8:57a, 6/16/23
AG
oldarmy1 said:
RIVN testing $15.80 long term major resistance. Eventually that is going to break and have a big move. I always trim calls at these key levels in case it can't break yet and recycles through a consolidation.
Net free on 7/21 17.5s.

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oldarmy1
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In reply to FTAG 2000 • 9:01a, 6/16/23
AG
FTAG 2000 said:
oldarmy1 said:
RIVN testing $15.80 long term major resistance. Eventually that is going to break and have a big move. I always trim calls at these key levels in case it can't break yet and recycles through a consolidation.
Net free on 7/21 17.5s.

RIVN!!!!
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FTAG 2000
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9:01a, 6/16/23
AG
Someone explain how BUD is going back up when it's coming out that InBev is writing checks to its distributors for financial assistance.

On top of a monumental sales decline approaching 30%, they are having to pay their distributors to make up for losses.

That's going to hit the books.
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wanderer
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9:10a, 6/16/23
When calculating model T do you use after/pre hours as well? For example, TGT got almost to 139 in pre-market but didn't actually open there.

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aggiebrad94
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In reply to FTAG 2000 • 9:14a, 6/16/23
AG
FTAG 2000 said:
Someone explain how BUD is going back up when it's coming out that InBev is writing checks to its distributors for financial assistance.

On top of a monumental sales decline approaching 30%, they are having to pay their distributors to make up for losses.

That's going to hit the books.
Possible suggestions:

  • Investors thinking the worst is over.
  • Buyers have short memories and will start drinking Bud Light again.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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9:18a, 6/16/23
AG
Markets are not what is. They are what will be.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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9:18a, 6/16/23
AG
So far just pin / chop action.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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yocod
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In reply to FTAG 2000 • 9:20a, 6/16/23
AG
Bud Light is losing market share, but is InBev as a whole? What are those Bud Light drinkers turning to? InBev has a massive portfolio, and my feeling is that the people boycotting Bud Light probably are not boycotting the other brands. Has Busch, Michelob, Corona, Modelo, etc. seen declines? Or are Bud Light drinkers picking up those instead? I really don't know. But, it is a massive company that sells in over 100 countries. What they did was boneheaded, but my feeling is that people do have short memory, will forget or stop caring about the boycott, and eventually start drinking it again. I have some January $65 calls on BUD. Might as well try to make some money off their stupidity.

Same with Target.
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oldarmy1
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In reply to wanderer • 9:23a, 6/16/23
AG
wanderer said:
When calculating model T do you use after/pre hours as well? For example, TGT got almost to 139 in pre-market but didn't actually open there.

I use the full range of premarket so $132.03 I would re-enter calls. If it bounces before there I don't do anything since I'm all set. Re-entry on winning trades require price to come to MT value or I don't want it.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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9:34a, 6/16/23
AG
Got my scratch on that bounce. I'm done.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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Boy Named Sue
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9:42a, 6/16/23
AG
Man, I had good mojo and instincts for most of April and May. I had TV set up with alerts, based on research I did in the evenings, and was digging it. Then I got swamped with work and didn't even open my trading platform for more than an hour or so each of the last three weeks.

Now I feel like I'm starting over from scratch. Zero confidence in my ability to spot a key level, predict a trend, or assess confirmations. The few trades I did take weren't my normal style, and didn't pan out.

Anyone else ever have this experience? I'm thinking I'll go back to basics and trade small again, just to get some wins and build back my mojo.

I see OA is doing another seminar later today, so I may jump on that and try to kickstart things.
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rodan85
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In reply to Boy Named Sue • 9:58a, 6/16/23
AG
I feel the same way. I keep getting caught up in work and have missed most of the last months gains, by not trading at all.
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FTAG 2000
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In reply to oldarmy1 • 10:15a, 6/16/23
AG
oldarmy1 said:
wanderer said:
When calculating model T do you use after/pre hours as well? For example, TGT got almost to 139 in pre-market but didn't actually open there.

I use the full range of premarket so $132.03 I would re-enter calls. If it bounces before there I don't do anything since I'm all set. Re-entry on winning trades require price to come to MT value or I don't want it.
Where is the 132.03 coming from?

I get model-T but trying to understand what timeline this is over. You just looking at the week's high and low? How far back do you go for things like this, and when do you decide to use the week's hi-lo instead of say the month, the quarter, or looking back at a chart's most recent high and lo?
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Chipotlemonger
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In reply to yocod • 11:24a, 6/16/23
AG
yocod said:
Bud Light is losing market share, but is InBev as a whole? What are those Bud Light drinkers turning to? InBev has a massive portfolio, and my feeling is that the people boycotting Bud Light probably are not boycotting the other brands. Has Busch, Michelob, Corona, Modelo, etc. seen declines? Or are Bud Light drinkers picking up those instead? I really don't know. But, it is a massive company that sells in over 100 countries. What they did was boneheaded, but my feeling is that people do have short memory, will forget or stop caring about the boycott, and eventually start drinking it again. I have some January $65 calls on BUD. Might as well try to make some money off their stupidity.

Same with Target.
The principle products in their portfolio have all been hit to an extent. Bud Light's gotten the worst of it, but Michelob growth, which has been great for them for years now, is flatlining. In terms of overall company health, the USA is still the premier large drinks market in the world. Getting hurt here is a big deal no matter how the companies try to spin it.

By the way, both Corona and Modelo are Constellation, not ABI. Modelo's multi-year push is going very strong, and has gotten even stronger in the wake of the BL shift.
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gougler08
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11:26a, 6/16/23
AG
The markets are closed for Juneteenth?
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Brewmaster
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In reply to FTAG 2000 • 11:27a, 6/16/23
AG
quick and dirty math, I get 132. Just follow the trend from when it broke out and up (Monday). The low Monday was about 125, the high today was 138.98, just call it 139.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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11:56a, 6/16/23
AG
They would squeeze it. Difficult to want to enter after a green week and knowing it's quad opex.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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Ragoo
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In reply to gougler08 • 12:03p, 6/16/23
AG
gougler08 said:
The markets are closed for Juneteenth?
national holiday bro. I will be working however. Have to keep the economy energized….
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$30,000 Millionaire
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12:04p, 6/16/23
AG
no interest in playing within this range right now.

I think it's still bullish over about 4410 on SPX and I'd really like to see the opening range high taken out for a lotto long.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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12:04p, 6/16/23
AG
working on monday as well. I loaded the day with meetings, LOL.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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12:08p, 6/16/23
AG
I like don't have anything to do today, so I'm gonna watch youtube videos now.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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FTAG 2000
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 12:09p, 6/16/23
AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:
working on monday as well. I loaded the day with meetings, LOL.
Same. Back to it.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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12:48p, 6/16/23
AG
Gonna be low key disappointed if they don't rip it to insane numbers by close. Just to F todays shorts.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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12:50p, 6/16/23
AG
I am not playing but I think they're eating liquidity right now to charge it up.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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wanderer
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12:52p, 6/16/23
VIX with an odd move today. Down 6% with indexes basically flat.
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gougler08
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In reply to Ragoo • 12:58p, 6/16/23
AG
Ragoo said:
gougler08 said:
The markets are closed for Juneteenth?
national holiday bro. I will be working however. Have to keep the economy energized….
I don't have it off either (and seems like none of us do), which says enough
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EnronAg
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 1:01p, 6/16/23
AG
just hearing a few things like FOMO call buying is at extreme levels and calls are priced more expensive than puts from options action on CNBC last night, wouldn't max pain be them sending it down for the close???
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In reply to EnronAg • 1:10p, 6/16/23
AG
Maybe but there are other forces at play. Grabbing liquidity means burning premium and taking stops. I'm just saying how it looks on the DOM.

Like I said earlier, I am not playing and just watching.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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EnronAg
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1:12p, 6/16/23
AG
understood...as always, thanks for your knowledge
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1:32p, 6/16/23
AG
This is classic market maker action. They let the price float up slightly and then just slap it down quickly. This erodes premium and stops people who buy calls on the expectation of a pivot and then set a tight stop.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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1:33p, 6/16/23
AG
See that move right there? Classic.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 1:40p, 6/16/23
AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:
See that move right there? Classic.


What they'll do is they'll basically pull the bid and let it flush. I'm not looking but I bet a ton of 0D calls came off the book with the retest of the days low.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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1:49p, 6/16/23
AG
New low of day. Watch them rip it now to trap put buyers.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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