Deflation is coming

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) June 14, 2023

ProgN said:

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USC again???? I was hoping we were done with them for a while.

FJ43 said:

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For those that haven't been a part of OA's previous seminars I highly recommend you take the time to attend.

Even if you have, take a refresher with both the beginner and the advanced.

Just my redneck 2 cents anyway.

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Agreed!

Are we going to see you in Knoxvegas this year for the Tennuhkey game?

wanderer said:

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MVIS with a $75M offering. Down 16% AH

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Holy crap, they pulled the offering, back to $6 ah. We goin sizzler!

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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Last couple of fed days things have dumped the day after. Wonder what it's gonna be.

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Short term sPY puts went in the money to buy 25% against. MT of closing yesterday and low today is $436.39. Almost certain to achieve that above $435.84. What it does from there will be our key for today.

Full recovery trap bears would give a bounce. Fail to new lows equals likely trend day down. Would buy puts expiring $1-2 below that fail point as strong lotto potential.

One thing about these initial breaks in futures. Regardless of what happens today, generally it is a signal that a sell off pull back is coming within 3 days. Let's see how that plays out.

I got the email last night - confirmed working!

cryption said:

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I got the email last night - confirmed working!

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Same. Thanks OA.

oldarmy1 said:

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$30,000 Millionaire said:

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Last couple of fed days things have dumped the day after. Wonder what it's gonna be.

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Short term sPY puts went in the money to buy 25% against. MT of closing yesterday and low today is $436.39. Almost certain to achieve that above $435.84. What it does from there will be our key for today.

Full recovery trap bears would give a bounce. Fail to new lows equals likely trend day down. Would buy puts expiring $1-2 below that fail point as strong lotto potential.

One thing about these initial breaks in futures. Regardless of what happens today, generally it is a signal that a sell off pull back is coming within 3 days. Let's see how that plays out.

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If markets have continuation off that MT then the next one would be from day high yesterday +435.41 + yesterday high/2.

We filled the most recent gap yesterday on SPX and have another that would take almost 100 point pullback. A retest of that breakout just below there would be a near certainty. So we have our scenarios for trend laid out. Fun times!

Charismatic Megafauna said:

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August puts on cah and mck? I'll play

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Didn't get filled on mck, pretty much top ticked cah, up 20% already

oldarmy1 said:

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I am watching TGT closely after its beat down. Volume crescendo into what might be a double bottom (or tricksy new low RDR). Or if it just begins rising then alert set at $133.74.$135.26 takes out last red downtrend candle and would serve as confirmation. Remember the "guarantee" trades that are 100%? I'm adding this one to risk breaking the streak based on this rule. Get $136 - guarantee $144.

Model T is $144.74. That is a $10/share move.

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TGT just crossed over $136.
For options purposes, what time frame would you look at for it to get to the $144 mark?

TSLA 265c getting action

No clue. It increased its dividend giving it further legs off the bottom move. I just keep trimming calls ever $2 higher and made my first share sell of 10% today. I will hold 50% of shares longterm

Question.....did my premarket outlook help anyone this morning? I'll be using the classic squeeze trap tomorrow because it was about the easiest one I've ever seen.

fake breakdown - market is strong. META was good to me this morning.

oldarmy1 said:

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Question.....did my premarket outlook help anyone this morning? I'll be using the classic squeeze trap tomorrow because it was about the easiest one I've ever seen.

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Just read it now, but I think it's on point.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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oldarmy1 said:

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Question.....did my premarket outlook help anyone this morning? I'll be using the classic squeeze trap tomorrow because it was about the easiest one I've ever seen.

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Just read it now, but I think it's on point.

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Pivot off retest of yesterday highs. I'm done for the day. Gotta work on Seminar

AYX looks to be bucking the trend. Doesn't care what macro markets doing. Just hit new high

oldarmy1 said:

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Question.....did my premarket outlook help anyone this morning? I'll be using the classic squeeze trap tomorrow because it was about the easiest one I've ever seen.

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Where was this?

FTAG 2000 said:

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oldarmy1 said:

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Question.....did my premarket outlook help anyone this morning? I'll be using the classic squeeze trap tomorrow because it was about the easiest one I've ever seen.

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Where was this?

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Just up the page this morning. ^

Thanks, was hunting for an email.

When in doubt, scroll.

so, in the very short-term, like over the next week, are we thinking blow-off top? or kinda garden variety retracement in 2-3% territory? this market needs to cool down at some point, right? RIGHT??? just curious what you see in the technicals of potential pullback or this blow-off top that is being mentioned all over the place (Cem Karsan & others)...

AAPL hit new all time high today so I think I remember OA saying if that happens, look for the blow off the top follow through. I plan to layer into some August SPY puts tomorrow if we keep this up

SPY hit YTD highs again today. Probably not a bad move.

one quick follow-up, how would you play said chair pull...i'm thinking QQQ puts rather than SPY...and was thinking July expiry rather than August...but could be convinced otherwise...my biggest question, is how far OTM to go? any suggestions would be greatly appreciated.

EnronAg said:

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one quick follow-up, how would you play said chair pull...i'm thinking QQQ puts rather than SPY...and was thinking July expiry rather than August...but could be convinced otherwise...my biggest question, is how far OTM to go? any suggestions would be greatly appreciated.

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All my puts are in August. I roll over 45 days out every month because the decay and drop in value is less that way.

Received. Won't be able to attend the live stream but looking forward to the VOD.

oldarmy1 said:

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EnronAg said:

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one quick follow-up, how would you play said chair pull...i'm thinking QQQ puts rather than SPY...and was thinking July expiry rather than August...but could be convinced otherwise...my biggest question, is how far OTM to go? any suggestions would be greatly appreciated.

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All my puts are in August. I roll over 45 days out every month because the decay and drop in value is less that way.

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To add to this.
We have SPY gaps at:

4% Drop at 422.92
7.5% Drop at 407.27
9.3% Drop at 401.6 (im seeing bar above at 401.76, very small if it didn't fill previously)
10% Drop at 396.49

I see the 422.92 being filled before end of July, I think once we rehit 407 market is gonna go full correction and fill down to 396.49. Obvious play when this happens is to have puts, sell at 401.6 fill and flip to 403 calls and then reselll for 396 fill.

RIVN!