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Spoony Love
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In reply to Charismatic Megafauna • 10:58a, 5/17/23
AG
I fear we may be sideways from here today. On the daily, SPY is tightening its range down and we have a gap above and below to fill. I believe many have said they feel the gap above will be filled first then move down to fill the below gap soon after. I'm beginning to believe they are correct.

I wish I was in a spot to post a chart but the cone, including the peaks for the days it gapped up and down, would put tomorrow or Friday as decision day. If you don't include those days, the chart would indicate a move next week early. I am leaning toward tomorrow or Friday with OPEX week in mind.
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Charismatic Megafauna
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In reply to 0708aggie • 11:02a, 5/17/23
AG
0708aggie said:
She's moving. Up 25% on my entry (had a meeting and couldn't get in until late). You should be net free by now.

Tough to go net free with 1! Zero or hero...$40 scratchoff for me
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Charismatic Megafauna
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In reply to Spoony Love • 11:05a, 5/17/23
AG
I agree with you (and bsg and fj yesterday afternoon) on the pennant, but i also spy with my little eye a bull flag! We've also broken out of the pennant according to my crayons
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Spoony Love
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11:07a, 5/17/23
AG
Is XOM trying to reverse off 102 today?
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oldarmy1
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In reply to Spoony Love • 11:14a, 5/17/23
AG
Spoony Love said:
I fear we may be sideways from here today. On the daily, SPY is tightening its range down and we have a gap above and below to fill. I believe many have said they feel the gap above will be filled first then move down to fill the below gap soon after. I'm beginning to believe they are correct.

I wish I was in a spot to post a chart but the cone, including the peaks for the days it gapped up and down, would put tomorrow or Friday as decision day. If you don't include those days, the chart would indicate a move next week early. I am leaning toward tomorrow or Friday with OPEX week in mind.
FJ posted one that shows it close up. Mine shows it macro size.

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oldarmy1
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11:18a, 5/17/23
AG
I got into SQ calls on the early expected macro pullback. It's major support is in the mid $50's but might see some ranging like Sept $50's did OR it might just pull a 3/24 pure reversal into uptrend. I trimmed on the nice move but would buy back if revisits.
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oldarmy1
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11:23a, 5/17/23
AG
Yes is my answer to the XOM reversal. Also FMC $115 calls to June 16. Ease into them.and use any capitulation to add IMO
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YaketyYak
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11:33a, 5/17/23
We just break through the triangle on SPY?
Take out the papers and the trash, or you don't get no spendin' cash
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Spoony Love
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In reply to YaketyYak • 11:38a, 5/17/23
AG
Triangle with the gap day peaks included yes. The triangle without the gap day peaks, no. Has to get through 413.50
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EnronAg
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11:40a, 5/17/23
AG
definitely broke now
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Spoony Love
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In reply to EnronAg • 11:44a, 5/17/23
AG
Yes. Gap above starts at 414.82 I believe. So if today is the day, $415 is the target.
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Golf1
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11:54a, 5/17/23
AG
I know OA said don't take profits early this time… but 80% is 80% so I'll take it!

Thanks OA!
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oldarmy1
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In reply to Golf1 • 12:03p, 5/17/23
AG
Well done!
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Spoony Love
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12:05p, 5/17/23
AG
Man those 412Cs are worth bunches more. Not going to complain about doubling my money, but leaving 5x on the table is what I spoke of earlier.
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oldarmy1
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In reply to Spoony Love • 12:08p, 5/17/23
AG
Spoony Love said:
Man those 412Cs are worth bunches more. Not going to complain about doubling my money, but leaving 5x on the table is what I spoke of earlier.


It was a good trade. I suggest leaving a runner 10% with no risk to capture potential double of your double.

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RulesForTheeNotForMe
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12:09p, 5/17/23
AG
Should we expect some re-trace? If so, how much? This has been a heck of a 30-minute run.
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Charismatic Megafauna
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12:11p, 5/17/23
AG
I haven't had a day like that in a while. I need a smoke
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Charismatic Megafauna
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12:14p, 5/17/23
AG
If it decides to run for the top of mancinis inner megaphone that's about 416.8, and only a little over $6 daily range. Could happen
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EngrAg14
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In reply to oldarmy1 • 12:23p, 5/17/23
AG
oldarmy1 said:
Well done!
Where do you see a good re-trace level if one was inclined to buy puts?
413 range for Friday?
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Talon2DSO
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12:34p, 5/17/23
AG
Since we are Aggies here and love tradition....OA, what's the charity you want us to pitch into for this one?
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Spoony Love
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In reply to EngrAg14 • 12:36p, 5/17/23
AG
That's a good start. But the trend has been that SPY will stay a full day out of the 414-408 range then back in. So if it doesn't retrace today, maybe see what tomorrow holds.
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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12:53p, 5/17/23
XOM
- With the push through $105 there should be an easy path to $108. Should $108 be broken through in a short time span. Look for a Gamma Squeeze to occur.
- Any news of a debt ceiling deal will be bullish
- I picked up a rumor that the NY FED sold 250 million barrels of Crude Oil Futures and I am trying to verify.

ETA = sorry, hit post to fast

If NY Fed sold Futures this past 30 days, there is your manipulation, 250 million barrels is the equivalent to the SPR Release in 2022; however, it's temporary in my book because it's not physical material hitting the market. it's a psychology for pricing. Second, if NY Fed did sell paper, I truly hope the Buyer(s) of the paper can identify the Seller, and if it is NY Fed that ties back,...then Serve Notice for Delivery....and let the NY Fed squirm out of that position. It would take some massive balls to take delivery on 250 million barrels but Saudi comes to mind as having the financial wherewithal to do this maneuver.
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oldarmy1
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In reply to Talon2DSO • 12:54p, 5/17/23
AG
Talon2DSO said:
Since we are Aggies here and love tradition....OA, what's the charity you want us to pitch into for this one?


Love it! The good trades karma was at its highest during donations for helping others.

Kenny Brown. Liver transplant and now on dialysis after a host of surgeries and continued issues. Not sure how much longer we have him but his family will be left and have big needs.

Thank you!

https://gofund.me/eb3377b8
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oldarmy1
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In reply to EngrAg14 • 12:54p, 5/17/23
AG
EngrAg14 said:
oldarmy1 said:
Well done!
Where do you see a good re-trace level if one was inclined to buy puts?
413 range for Friday?


I'd buy any dips instead
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FTAG 2000
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12:56p, 5/17/23
AG
In meetings all morning and feel like I missed the move.

I will not fomo. I will not fomo. I will not fomo.
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E
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1:06p, 5/17/23
AG
Can you promise a WWR reversal too??
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Talon2DSO
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In reply to oldarmy1 • 1:23p, 5/17/23
AG
oldarmy1 said:
EngrAg14 said:
oldarmy1 said:
Well done!
Where do you see a good re-trace level if one was inclined to buy puts?
413 range for Friday?


I'd buy any dips instead


Does this mean we'll see an upward trend for a few days? How's that 422c lotto for next Tuesday look?
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Red Red Wine
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1:51p, 5/17/23
AG
This anything?

MVST

1-Yr Chart

Big green goal posts (and possibly cup/handle forming?):

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$30,000 Millionaire
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2:16p, 5/17/23
AG
I don't even want to tell you guys how badly I paper handed 4135Cs I had, but I did make money today.

no clean lean yet into the close. I think as long as stay above ES 4168-4170 that 4180 could trade today. I think this will be the high of the week. Don't forget this is monthly OPEX week, so shenanigans will persist.

Gold could be a long.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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Towns03
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In reply to oldarmy1 • 2:56p, 5/17/23
AG
oldarmy1 said:
Yes is my answer to the XOM reversal. Also FMC $115 calls to June 16. Ease into them.and use any capitulation to add IMO
I'm still reading and learning here:

I see the June 16th call for FMC at .70 now. Did that go down since your post? did your position hit stops and sell? or are you holding?

thanks for the lessons and tips!
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Boy Named Sue
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3:04p, 5/17/23
AG
I have grown to hate holding options overnight. I have 5/23 415Cs that are up 120%. What would you do?
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Charismatic Megafauna
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3:14p, 5/17/23
AG
I sold 416s against mine to build free+ spreads. I actually accidentally sold 5/19 416s first accidentally building a calendar spread (?) then realized my mistake and bought a 5/19 415 and sold the 5/23 416 for another $25 credit to turn my calendar spread into 2 normal spreads. I got all caught up in the moment today
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wanderer
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3:17p, 5/17/23
OA, are you rolling to a different strike price too?

I have 6/16 SPY puts ranging from 380-390 & QQQ puts ranging from $285-295. Like you mentioned, theta is definitely starting to affect them.

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Spoony Love
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In reply to Charismatic Megafauna • 3:19p, 5/17/23
AG
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Charismatic Megafauna
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In reply to Spoony Love • 3:22p, 5/17/23
AG
Yep I'm so excited I'm getting cornrows tonight, maybe a tattoo
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