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24,635,679 Views | 233285 Replies | Last: 14 min ago by Heineken-Ashi
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG


approaching my no trade window.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
SF2004
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$XOM pumping did not age well on here.
jagvocate
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Sold my XOM a few weeks ago. Will keep an eye on it and try to pick some up in the high 80s
Swollen Thumb
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SF2004 said:

$XOM pumping did not age well on here.
Really? I got around 90 in September after following Farmer's posts. Been selling CCs on every run past 115 and sold 2 rounds of 100P on these dips. Ping pong. My basis is down in the 70's by now. Plus the dividend x 3. I love this stock.
FishrCoAg
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SF2004 said:

$XOM pumping did not age well on here.


Post and emoji not particularly helpful.
FishrCoAg
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Swollen Thumb said:

SF2004 said:

$XOM pumping did not age well on here.
Really? I got around 90 in September after following Farmer's posts. Been selling CCs on every run past 115 and sold 2 rounds of 100P on these dips. Ping pong. My basis is down in the 70's by now. Plus the dividend x 3. I love this stock.


Same here
BaylorSpineGuy
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Looks like this SPY pennant should resolve at the latest by mid afternoon tomorrow. This is 60 min chart over last month. Remember….the debt ceiling resolution may be a sell the news event.
sts7049
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SF2004 said:

$XOM pumping did not age well on here.


would rather listen to that "pumping" than your never ending complaining
M4 Benelli
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SF2004 said:

$XOM pumping did not age well on here.


This comment is b.s considering all the time Farmer spends explaining his oil thesis in length.
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
LOL at the $XOM sentiment. so many opportunities to make money off of that.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
$30,000 Millionaire
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Market keeps breaking down after any upward momentum, but I just can't bring myself to short here with 4130 continuing to defend. It is getting weak with all of the action down here.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Spoony Love
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I don't know man, never underestimate the power of the market to go sideways. It's basically been in the 408-414 range since March 31. Small break out a couple times but right back into this range. It's my opinion this range will hold until the Fed announces an economic based move (not this hem and hawing we have right now), or we default on debt. (So maybe debt news is the mover)
FTAG 2000
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What is happening to ASO? They getting dragged down by the rest of retail?

$30,000 Millionaire
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Once again - smart not to short but upside momentum immediately stuffed.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Heineken-Ashi
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$30,000 Millionaire said:

LOL at the $XOM sentiment. so many opportunities to make money off of that.
Correct. I think we can all appreciate the advice that gave us a chance to make money. And while it sucks to be wrong and to lose taking someone's advice, we shouldn't disparage those who put themselves on the line attempting to make predictions, free of charge, that could benefit others.

But we also need to make sure we are viewing through all angles and not getting unrealistic.

Here's a weekly chart going back nearly 20 years.



In December of 2021 it broke above a downtrend that started in 2015. That came with heavy volume signaling confirmation that higher highs were coming. I've drawn two channels that represent the potential boundaries it has been operating within. The green one is based on lowest levels of support trending up since COVID, and the blue one is based on highest levels of resistance trending up since COVID. At this time, there are no steeper channels as this weeks action has broken support of the likely channel that would be steeper. That also happened to break the $105 support from the previous high in 2015 that was also resistance in June of 2022. So based on that, and based on previous long term support prices, I wouldn't be entering new longs until it either hits one of those supports and bounces, or breaks to new highs within one of the channels. If at any point it breaks below both channels, it's officially a bear market for XOM. As an additional technical detail, the 200 week EMA is included to show what I would consider last resort support for the time being.

XOM is chopping up and down yet furiously sideways on decreasing (potentially stabilizing) volume. EDIT TO ADD: This often happens at highs when price cant be pushed much higher. The next major weekly volume spike of 150M-200M likely signals smart money flowing out. So watch out for that. But due to volume being a lagging indicator, you will likely have already been punished if you wait for that to sell. The bottom will be much closer than the top.

You have to remember, a chart that looks like this shows you that if you aren't already in, you are at best going to be late to the party with likely limited upside (compared to everyone else). It's already been to ATH's recently. And it's far above support levels. While you can make money short term, the long term move already happened. Don't get stuck being the guy who buys when everyone else is taking profit. Find a chart that better supports long term profits and isn't as extended to the upside. Or wait for a logical entry point on XOM. I wouldn't disagree if you thought $100 was a great price. But what is your goal by buying there? If it's planning on new highs, then you have to know your supports and when they are considered broken. You have to be willing to win small and open to the possibility of a quick stop or a loss.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
SF2004
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sts7049 said:

SF2004 said:

$XOM pumping did not age well on here.


would rather listen to that "pumping" than your never ending complaining
Whether you like it or not politics and government impact market movement/sentiment a great deal.

Yet you cry any time some one disparages your boy Joey B on this thread.

Also, explaining why a stock is at a good price is fine but A LOT of times this thread devolves into "stocks only go up" so buy more even though it was over extended.

You confuse complaining with a bull**** meter and just smartasshattery in general.
BaylorSpineGuy
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Spoony Love said:

I don't know man, never underestimate the power of the market to go sideways. It's basically been in the 408-414 range since March 31. Small break out a couple times but right back into this range. It's my opinion this range will hold until the Fed announces an economic based move (not this hem and hawing we have right now), or we default on debt. (So maybe debt news is the mover)


Very true! Thanks for putting into perspective. Seems we have a couple recent triangles that resolved with fake breakouts and breakdowns with staying in this miserable channel. Curious to see next move but trying not to get caught in a long or short position against the grain.
$30,000 Millionaire
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Market makers having a field day today.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
ProgN
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SMCI is a machine. It's like taking another kick to my nuts everytime I check on it.
Chef Elko
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SF2004 said:

sts7049 said:

SF2004 said:

$XOM pumping did not age well on here.


would rather listen to that "pumping" than your never ending complaining
Whether you like it or not politics and government impact market movement/sentiment a great deal.

Yet you cry any time some one disparages your boy Joey B on this thread.

Also, explaining why a stock is at a good price is fine but A LOT of times this thread devolves into "stocks only go up" so buy more even though it was over extended.

You confuse complaining with a bull**** meter and just smartasshattery in general.
Dude, you're one of the biggest market is broken/news is terrible yet market is up/market should be tanking guys on this thread. Then you put out a "gotcha!" comment when XOM is down after a steady run. Come onnnnn maaaaan
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
I'd like to see 4140 clear on ES for some rally into close. Seems unlikely though
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
These are really dirty MM tricks.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Spoony Love
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I had an unpleasant dream like that once
topher06
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Once again, thrilling volume. Guessing we get a puke here.
Spoony Love
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They're either stealing premiums or stealing options.
$30,000 Millionaire
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Hard to say. 4130 has held on ES multiple times. 4140 has generally capped upside.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
$30,000 Millionaire
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I would not be shocked to see a sub 4130 close or a 4140 close.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
$30,000 Millionaire
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If they're grabbing liquidity it will rally from around here. 4131 area.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
SF2004
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Danwell Home said:

SF2004 said:

sts7049 said:

SF2004 said:

$XOM pumping did not age well on here.


would rather listen to that "pumping" than your never ending complaining
Whether you like it or not politics and government impact market movement/sentiment a great deal.

Yet you cry any time some one disparages your boy Joey B on this thread.

Also, explaining why a stock is at a good price is fine but A LOT of times this thread devolves into "stocks only go up" so buy more even though it was over extended.

You confuse complaining with a bull**** meter and just smartasshattery in general.
Dude, you're one of the biggest market is broken/news is terrible yet market is up/market should be tanking guys on this thread. Then you put out a "gotcha!" comment when XOM is down after a steady run. Come onnnnn maaaaan
This post was followed by:

"These are really dirty MM tricks."

and

"They're either stealing premium or stealing options."
$30,000 Millionaire
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Dude, for intraday trading on a double inside day.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Charismatic Megafauna
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Do you guys feel dirty when you're holding puts and watching it dump into close? Yeah me either
Charismatic Megafauna
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Probably should have taken the 20% on the vix put i bought yesterday but it's got time
ProgN
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The market is being supported by the mega techs due to AI hysteria. When they rollover, it could get real ugly. Reminds me of the dot.com hysteria at the end of the 90's. A company that never made a profit could IPO and if their name was we****ingsuck.com, they would explode. That didn't end well.
Charismatic Megafauna
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Good point. Also reminds me of 2020? when any company who could sneak in a mention that they were involved in blockchain would moon immediately. Is it too much to ask for this fad to hang on until after crwd earnings though?
ProgN
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Something got into $WAL AH but I don't see any news.

ETA: Found it
Quote:

Western Alliance Says Deposit Balances Stabilized By Mar. 20; QTD Deposit Growth Exceeded $2B As Of May 12
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