We've traded within a .20 range for the past 15 minutes on SPY. Premium killer day.

Charismatic Megafauna said:

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Sounds like the right move, your indicator is going haywire. Chop chop chop

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context is everything with that. i need to probably add something for momentum on it.

i had actually tried to do something simple to start out but i'm not happy with it as an indicator yet.

here's the source code if anyone wants to mess with this. I'd like to find a way to gauge momentum intraday. i think PJF actually has the right idea with his angle approach.

//@version=5
indicator("Footprint Chart with Signals", overlay=true)

// Inputs
priceType = input.string("HL2", title="Price Source", options=["HL2", "Close", "Open", "High", "Low"])
volumeType = input.string("Volume", title="Volume Source", options=["Volume"])
numRows = input.int(10, title="Number of Rows", minval=1)
barWidth = input.int(2, title="Bar Width", minval=1)

priceSource = priceType == "HL2" ? hl2 : priceType == "Close" ? close : priceType == "Open" ? open : priceType == "High" ? high : low
volumeSource = volumeType == "Volume" ? volume : volume

// Calculate footprint data
delta = volumeSource * (priceSource - open)
footprint = array.new_float(0)
volumeSum = 0.0
for i = 0 to 100
volumeSum := volumeSum + volumeSource[i * barWidth]
array.push(footprint, volumeSum)
array.reverse(footprint)

// Plot the chart
plot(delta, "Delta", color=color.blue, style=plot.style_histogram, linewidth=2)

// Add price action signals
ema5 = ta.ema(priceSource, 5)
maFast = ta.sma(priceSource, 5)
maSlow = ta.sma(priceSource, 20)
isUptrend = maFast > maSlow and close > ema5
isDowntrend = maFast < maSlow and close < ema5

var bool buySignal = false
var bool sellSignal = false

buySignal := not buySignal[1] and isUptrend and not isDowntrend[1]
sellSignal := not sellSignal[1] and isDowntrend and not isUptrend[1]
negateSignal = (buySignal[1] and isDowntrend) or (sellSignal[1] and isUptrend)

plotshape(buySignal, style=shape.triangleup, location=location.belowbar, color=color.green, size=size.small, transp=0)
plotshape(sellSignal, style=shape.triangledown, location=location.abovebar, color=color.red, size=size.small, transp=0)
plotshape(negateSignal, style=shape.arrowdown, location=location.abovebar, color=color.orange, size=size.small, transp=0)

someone here is bound to be a serious programmer or math person. I've been in management too long - I'm stupid.

I agree with that tweet. Baker Hughes weekly data says rig count declining. This Administration's viewpoint has not changed, they hate fossil fuels and when fed policy is trying to put that industry out of business, they will not invest to expand. In theory, U.S. Big Oil is behind approximately 10% growth factor from no capex investing over last 3+ years. Bullish

Today's API numbers I am looking for a 9 million Draw on the big 3. Build season is over or very near end, IMO. Bullish

EIA numbers tomorrow. I'm expecting a near similar Draw on Big 3. Bullish

The family estate has a property with a billboard lease. Billboard company sent out a marketing email this morning to potential customers to consider leasing signage. The billboard company focused on people planning and going on vacations and percentages flying & driving (and driving over 500 miles) obviously eyes on the road to see a billboard. All I cared about were those vacation numbers they were touting. Bullish

I guess crude oil Futures traders will buy when they see the bottom of the barrel. I'm more focused on OPEC+. OPEC+ is firmly in control of the world energy markets. They said months ago that oil at $80 to $85 is the price they need. They are a patient bunch. OPEC+ has been telling the truth and actioning their statements. More cuts are coming. This Administration sent someone over last weekend to Saudi, somebody this weekend and Blinken goes the week after. This Administration exceeds expectations in pissin' off Saudi. I don't see these visits as helpful. Bullish

Don't know if you read the article link I posted Sunday, but it's a really good explanation. Bullish

Last, the Energy Committee Heads in Senate and House are asking for an independent investigation of Jotato's release of 250 million barrels of crude last year from the SPR. They think it has put us in a National Security Risk. .... Oh really? .... You probably read that in a post(s) of mine over the last 18 months. Bullish

There never was a glut of oil in the market - only an artificial surplus by Jotato's SPR release to keep energy cheap at the gas pump and buy votes in trade for a National Security Risk. Crude Futures signal that we are swimmin' in the stuff, that's a laugher. The coming shortage of crude will be a doozy. Bullish

CNBC viewer.......better go update my spreadsheet

XOM moving up. Thanks CNBC

BaylorSpineGuy said:

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Hey Farmer, I consider you pretty much the most expert trader in O&G on this board.

That said, I had CNBC on at lunch and the energy sector has been worst performing sector since the year started. Is it possible that the energy buy/hold is just a crowded trade? Your analysis is basically spot on, but XOM is down 1% on the year, and others are also riding the struggle bus.

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It will be hard to continue the scorching pace of 2022. On the other hand, XOM just reached a new ATH a couple weeks ago. Buy & Hold group definitely gaining an even tighter grip.

As worse performing sector,....somehow WS tied the banking crisis to energy. I don't know what the connection is and people a lot smarter than me don't know the connection either. That's the performance issue.

Meanwhile, BRIC's are trying to loosen this Administration's & Fed/Central Bank's grip on the world. Weaponization of currency & sanctions was not a smart move by this Administration and the rest of the world saw it. Globalists and Green Energy have met their match.

US Big Banks and analysts still have the $95 crude target for 23H2 and $100+ for 24H1. Driving season in the US starts this month and right along with the OPEC+ cuts. China is reopening in the same fashion as the US with starts & stops. Net net, I see a lot of upside and relatively little downside. It's just a matter of time and waiting for the next surge - "summer". Institutions, HF's and Money Managers are buying fossil fuel energy, they just don't talk about it because it's not popular in political circles who are Green oriented.

I hope this helps in some way.

May 2023 Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) was released today showing DOE/EIA dropping their Brent "forecast" for 2023 from $85 to $79 and 2024 "forecast" from $81 to $74. Crude Oil Futures immediately responded by going up. Oil Futures traders are fully aware of DOE/EIA bias when it comes to "forecasts/projections". DOE/EIA is carrying the Administration's water, now its laughable. Crude Oil Futures continue green.