Sooo... we're gonna barcode all day and pin here?
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Last: 46 min ago by Heineken-Ashi
Charismatic Megafauna
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AG
Oh, it's getting dirty. We are at a 1.5% day on SPY and it could keep going.
Spoony Love said:
I'm looking for a SPY bounce around 410. Surely the bulls will wake up then and fight.
I've made my goal for the day. It's now just play time.
Could be. 408 and change looking while driving. Frowned upon.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
Have a 5/2 SPY 416/415p vertical that was net free that I think I'll be able to max out…
SKEW charts come to fruition.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
VIX needs to clear and hold 20 then 23 to really go.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
That was my first play today. I gave up on a tomorrow 408P because it doubled extremely quickly. I thought, ok, it will bounce at some point and I lose all that momentum. It's 4x now.
wanderer said:
Have a 5/2 SPY 416/415p vertical that was net free that I think I'll be able to max out…
Congrats!
Just me….don't get greedy. Traders market.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
Tempted to play a bounce here but not going to. If you're feeling lucky go to next week and not too far OTM.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
This seems oversold.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Yes! Keep to see if 50 is reclaimed.FJ43 said:Ccutamu said:
FJ... did you cut XOM June 125s?
Nope. Want to see if reclaims 50. Down 22%. June calls within my trade plan.
Took off all but runners on May VIX calls for the win. Those more than offset the XOM.
Holding all June VIX calls.
XOM usually has a drop right after ER. This drop is pretty dang deep. Beyond my expectations. However, it rebounds and picks up steam heading to ExDiv date (this quarter is 5/15).
A Goldman analyst lowered his XOM target on Monday to $126. The only analyst to lower. The market media plastered it everywhere. However, Jeff Currie/GS is bullish out-of-his-mind crude. So, yes there can be different opinions in the same house. I favor Currie more than some unknown yaking about XOM. Frankly, I think the GS announcement is allowing their big clients an entry into XOM.
API numbers today, EIA tomorrow. Look for massive draws 10+million from the Big 3. I only see draws going forward. If your recession minded and thinking demand is going down....the demand data is not showing that.
May 2023 are the OPEC+ cuts and U.S. enters driving season in May.
Moo
$COIN looks good, but earnings.
Let's say you were going to pick up some calls based on this drop (assuming you don't currently have any in play). What would you look at and how far out?
I have runners on 409p, 410p and 411p. The 410s expire tomorrow and the others are 0dte. I already made my weekly goal today, so I want to set trailing stops on these runners and focus on work. What % would you guys recommend? Or would you recommend a different approach like a hard stop?
I'd be out today or I would be so small that you can let the runners be zero.
more downside is possible today but i think the bulk of the move has happened at this point before the fed.
Yeah they can all be zero at this point. I was curious if there's a difference in approach between 0dte and 1dte. I was thinking 15% trailing, but then wondered if a bigger trail might be better on the more volatile 0dte
they're still pushing this down, but volume is diminishing. should be a cue for you.
for a true runner, i'd have a stop at entry and then just close EOD.Boy Named Sue said:
Yeah they can all be zero at this point. I was curious if there's a difference in approach between 0dte and 1dte. I was thinking 15% trailing, but then wondered if a bigger trail might be better on the more volatile 0dte
they're inflating call premium again
$30,000 Millionaire said:
they're inflating call premium again
Which means?
I tried a small mes position and stopped out. This is where a struggle, when does it reverse.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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I don't know your budget. Tried to be reasonable. So, here goes..AgEng06 said:
Let's say you were going to pick up some calls based on this drop (assuming you don't currently have any in play). What would you look at and how far out?
Jun 9 $118's
Jun 16 $115's
Jun 16 $120's
Jul 21 $125's
I favor the Jun 16's. I think that's MOPEX in June. I'm usually bearish those MOPEX weeks. But, by this time (June) the supply/demand scenario will be out there and those folks today (May 2) thinking there's a bunch of supply will get a surprise in June, if not before. Lot's of Doubting Thomas' out there.
i don't trust this to get long yet, but ES could and should go for 4130
Thanks guys! Vix calls did help but I got in at 17 so didn't get the bump from 15 that OA talked about.Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:Yes! Keep to see if 50 is reclaimed.FJ43 said:Ccutamu said:
FJ... did you cut XOM June 125s?
Nope. Want to see if reclaims 50. Down 22%. June calls within my trade plan.
Took off all but runners on May VIX calls for the win. Those more than offset the XOM.
Holding all June VIX calls.
XOM usually has a drop right after ER. This drop is pretty dang deep. Beyond my expectations. However, it rebounds and picks up steam heading to ExDiv date (this quarter is 5/15).
A Goldman analyst lowered his XOM target on Monday to $126. The only analyst to lower. The market media plastered it everywhere. However, Jeff Currie/GS is bullish out-of-his-mind crude. So, yes there can be different opinions in the same house. I favor Currie more than some unknown yaking about XOM. Frankly, I think the GS announcement is allowing their big clients an entry into XOM.
API numbers today, EIA tomorrow. Look for massive draws 10+million from the Big 3. I only see draws going forward. If your recession minded and thinking demand is going down....the demand data is not showing that.
May 2023 are the OPEC+ cuts and U.S. enters driving season in May.
Moo
This is great. Thank you!
size small but you could try 4110C. just consider the macro context!
no entry yet for me
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Do it now. 10:54amCTFarmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:I don't know your budget. Tried to be reasonable. So, here goes..AgEng06 said:
Let's say you were going to pick up some calls based on this drop (assuming you don't currently have any in play). What would you look at and how far out?
Jun 9 $118's
Jun 16 $115's
Jun 16 $120's
Jul 21 $125's
I favor the Jun 16's. I think that's MOPEX in June. I'm usually bearish those MOPEX weeks. But, by this time (June) the supply/demand scenario will be out there and those folks today (May 2) thinking there's a bunch of supply will get a surprise in June, if not before. Lot's of Doubting Thomas' out there.
FTAG 2000 said:
Did another bank fail somewhere? Financials getting murdered.
FFWM, PACW, and a few others are getting close scrutiny now that FRC is gone. Regional banks are getting slaughtered.
we're in my "no" window, so I'm going to be back at 2
played PACW put lottos overnight, sold at 7x! Let's just say I'm done for the day! sorry I didn't post them here, I had low to moderate confidence in the play and time frame.cgh1999 said:FTAG 2000 said:
Did another bank fail somewhere? Financials getting murdered.
FFWM, PACW, and a few others are getting close scrutiny now that FRC is gone. Regional banks are getting slaughtered.
ALLY is another one that could crater, just watching it for now.
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$30,000 Millionaire said:
we're in my "no" window, so I'm going to be back at 2
Where's prog? Band again?
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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I added shares at $109.86Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:Do it now. 10:54amCTFarmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:I don't know your budget. Tried to be reasonable. So, here goes..AgEng06 said:
Let's say you were going to pick up some calls based on this drop (assuming you don't currently have any in play). What would you look at and how far out?
Jun 9 $118's
Jun 16 $115's
Jun 16 $120's
Jul 21 $125's
I favor the Jun 16's. I think that's MOPEX in June. I'm usually bearish those MOPEX weeks. But, by this time (June) the supply/demand scenario will be out there and those folks today (May 2) thinking there's a bunch of supply will get a surprise in June, if not before. Lot's of Doubting Thomas' out there.
A falling knife happened just afterward.
Oh well,...
Gonna buy XOM calls and maybe shares at 109.30, I think
Bought XOM June 16 at .85, going to average it down if we keep falling
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