Bit of a crazy SKEW pattern the last few weeks. Today was the high.

Thanks homie

#earnings for the weekhttps://t.co/lObOE0dgsr$AAPL $SOFI $AMD $NCLH $UBER $SHOP $PFE $F $ON $AMC $SQ $CVS $YUM $ANET $QCOM $COIN $DKNG $ALB $CHKP $BP $BUD $DDOG $MRNA $ET $RCL $SEDG $ACMR $SMCI $MELI $GPN $SBUX $CNA $MGM $MAR $WBD $RIG $PK $MPC $FANG $EPD $NVO $PTON $STNG… pic.twitter.com/ZKgo7nhxLR

— Earnings Whispers (@eWhispers) April 28, 2023

Charlie Munger is warning that trouble is ahead for the U.S. commercial property market, and U.S. banks are packed with bad loans.

Everyone can see this coming…

Central banks will act confused when more cracks appear.

— Gold Telegraph ⚡ (@GoldTelegraph_) April 30, 2023

Bonfire1996 has warned of this

They likely bought it for $1.

Morning, chaps.

Unscientific, but data is coming out at 9 on construction / building. Could chop around until then and maybe we figure out what the day is going to look like.

I tend to be in the camp of believing that even if the market continues higher, it will need to dip first. These are e-mini levels. Market rejected just below 4200 overnight. At 4171 and above 4190 is probably where I will try longs, with a tight stop at 4171. The first touch probably reacts given that was an inflection point on Friday. I do think the market will trade 4171 soon, I just don't know how soon.

For downside, it is harder to say. 4200 could reject again, but I wouldn't bet big on it. I think the real determinant you want to watch is VIX. I'm more inclined to try shorts on a clean rejection of 4190 with VIX starting to elevate. VIX probably needs to be above 17 to materially consider shorting.

It is also very possible that the May doldrums are here. I'm not a big 'timing' guy, but I do like to post seasonality on occasion. First couple days could look bullish before a bigger dip mid month.

Something John Carter posted about on Twitter is money supply. If that is true (he wouldn't BS), then that is in essence a "fed put" on the market, meaning a short term floor assuming no other big catalyst occurs.

I think banking panic will subside in short order. What may be a good short is $BUD, but I would view it as a short on a longer time horizon. For some reason, I don't think they're getting out of this easy. Normally I love to buy companies that have a crisis event like Volkwagen or BP, but in the case of self inflicted cultural idiocy - yeah, I'll pass.