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FJ43
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7:16p, 3/23/23

You can look back when I posted this but moved from 79 breakout Darvas Box to 124. Again….keep an eye and set some alerts.

Hope y'all made a buck on it the first round.


Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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jimmo
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7:16p, 3/23/23

$BAC sitting on monthly 200 EMA
seems cheap
too risky right now?
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jimmo
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In reply to FJ43 • 7:19p, 3/23/23
dang
why didn't you remind me?
I gotta do everything?
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FJ43
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7:24p, 3/23/23

Another one for y'all to set some alerts on.

Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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FJ43
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In reply to jimmo • 7:48p, 3/23/23
bmoochie
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In reply to FJ43 • 8:30p, 3/23/23
AG
So let me take a stab at what we are seeing. You pointed the volume in what looks like late Feb. I assume this is the accumulation period. We then digest a little but then it looks like you are pointing at the 200 and 50 EMA cross that has potential of happening. Key work potential. I would assume if it doesn't, the trade is invalidated?

Kinda also looks like a W forming and we will be testing the recent highs again which could signal breakout if we move above? Thanks in advance! I think swings like this might better suit my style. Still trying to figure that out.
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irish pete ag06
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In reply to FJ43 • 8:40p, 3/23/23
AG
FJ43 said:

Another one for y'all to set some alerts on.



Gosh dang that is a bullish chart
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FJ43
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In reply to bmoochie • 9:03p, 3/23/23
bmoochie said:
So let me take a stab at what we are seeing. You pointed the volume in what looks like late Feb. I assume this is the accumulation period. We then digest a little but then it looks like you are pointing at the 200 and 50 EMA cross that has potential of happening. Key work potential. I would assume if it doesn't, the trade is invalidated?

Kinda also looks like a W forming and we will be testing the recent highs again which could signal breakout if we move above? Thanks in advance! I think swings like this might better suit my style. Still trying to figure that out.
Good analysis.

Volume (big and 2 bars approx 10x average) was post accumulation and earnings breakout. Blew through the 200 then back tested and held well. Checks MT….check.

Now flagging post all that. 50 inbound to 200 and if that crosses look out.

RR is 1-3 min to 1-5++. Cut is obvious.

Edit: Forgot to mention the gap above from 21-27.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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Jet Black
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In reply to Dan Scott • 9:08p, 3/23/23
Dan Scott said:
More insider buying in BRDS. CFO bought another 80K shares.


Up 20% since I bought it.
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ProgN
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In reply to FJ43 • 10:03p, 3/23/23
FJ43 said:

Another one for y'all to set some alerts on.

I've been accumulating it on it's cooling off after their last ER. Go read it, it's very strong and now it's coiling for a good run imo.

ETA: that big volume spike was their ER and conference call. Also they received a double upgrade days before that ER. IIRC it was BAC that did that. FWIW, Soros has also been accumulating it and you know that demonic ********** is in the know.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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11:09p, 3/23/23
AG
Does anyone feel like coding a scan for the TDI indicator for TOS?

I don't think trading view supports custom scans.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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11:09p, 3/23/23
AG
Re: Fastly - I think they are legit.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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Philip J Fry
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12:11a, 3/24/23
AG
30K has motivated me to build my own Tradingview strategy.

https://www.tradingview.com/script/aiUYF8lu-MACD-with-Adjustable-Angle-Strategy/

Basically, I'm using MACD, but I've included an "angle at crossover" adjustable variable. I'm using this to try and reduce the number of false signals. So far, I've been using it to judge entries for SPY and UPRO. I'll take a 60% win rate.
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Dan Scott
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7:32a, 3/24/23
AG
BRDS up 33% this morning

I stumbled on this by luck. I was reading 10Ks and proxy statements of companies that stocks got crushed to see how much their executives made and overall share base compensation. BRDS was one of few where executives didn't make outrageous money or give themselves huge RSUs. I then saw insider buying and last week they reported they'd be cash flow positive in 2023. One time $2B market cap now down to $40M seemed cheap.
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irish pete ag06
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In reply to Philip J Fry • 7:43a, 3/24/23
AG
Philip J Fry said:
30K has motivated me to build my own Tradingview strategy.

https://www.tradingview.com/script/aiUYF8lu-MACD-with-Adjustable-Angle-Strategy/

Basically, I'm using MACD, but I've included an "angle at crossover" adjustable variable. I'm using this to try and reduce the number of false signals. So far, I've been using it to judge entries for SPY and UPRO. I'll take a 60% win rate.


This is the way gentlemen. Give yourself an objective setup to trade then the emotion is taken out of the equation.
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LMCane
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7:45a, 3/24/23
If one is looking at investing over the next 25 years- wouldn't Deutsche Bank be a good pick right now?

totally crushed and near year long lows- but it's one of the largest banks in all of Europe.

If it doesn't collapse wouldn't it eventually hit all time highs at some point in the next few decades?

DB down 14% today
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Bonfire1996
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In reply to LMCane • 8:21a, 3/24/23
AG
LMCane said:
If one is looking at investing over the next 25 years- wouldn't Deutsche Bank be a good pick right now?

totally crushed and near year long lows- but it's one of the largest banks in all of Europe.

If it doesn't collapse wouldn't it eventually hit all time highs at some point in the next few decades?

DB down 14% today
Risk is that old equity gets wiped out or it's purchase price is well below current equity valuation. Either are likely.

Your best bets if you want to own a bank is to buy the ones who are getting to acquire these firesale assets below market value. JPM is best in class and I expect it to be announced they are acquiring FRC over the weekend at well below book value
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Bonfire1996
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8:29a, 3/24/23
AG
Durable goods:

Feb -1.0% contraction
Jan revised: from -4.5% to -5.0%.

Two months contraction
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ProgN
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In reply to Bonfire1996 • 8:45a, 3/24/23
Hey Bonfire, when you have a chance watch this short segment that I saw the other day and give me your opinion. I've been watching $WAL and it seems pretty safe and also easy to trade in this volatile market.

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FJ43
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8:53a, 3/24/23
Out of all VIX calls on the push over 25. Solid trade and congrats to those that actioned this one. Remember you can always buy again and no reason to lose any gain %.

Next trade.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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Dan Scott
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9:05a, 3/24/23
AG
BRDS volume today is 3x the previous record volume. Of course that's easier when it's a penny stock but still interesting. I can't confirm but somebody on Twitter posted 25% short interest. I remember seeing it on the list of top shorted stocks all last year, but it's no longer listed. It was always around the middle from what I remember.

https://www.highshortinterest.com/
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Brewmaster
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In reply to Philip J Fry • 9:08a, 3/24/23
AG
Philip J Fry said:
30K has motivated me to build my own Tradingview strategy.

https://www.tradingview.com/script/aiUYF8lu-MACD-with-Adjustable-Angle-Strategy/

Basically, I'm using MACD, but I've included an "angle at crossover" adjustable variable. I'm using this to try and reduce the number of false signals. So far, I've been using it to judge entries for SPY and UPRO. I'll take a 60% win rate.
This is brilliant! dropping it into SPY it looks to have a very high success rate. Great work brother!

in particular the daily and hourly charts
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Bonfire1996
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In reply to ProgN • 9:09a, 3/24/23
AG
ProgN said:
Hey Bonfire, when you have a chance watch this short segment that I saw the other day and give me your opinion. I've been watching $WAL and it seems pretty safe and also easy to trade in this volatile market.

WAL lists most of their bond investments as "available for sale" which is good. The Trojan horse for these banks is the "held to maturity" portion of the bond portfolio. The banks DO NOT have to report unrealized losses in the "Held to maturity" portion, and in a liquidity crisis, everything is for sale and nothing is held to maturity.

WAL has $7.1 billion available for sale that is under water by $680 million. But they only have $1.3 billion in held to maturity, so that's good. Compare to Schwab, who is on the brink, $75 Billion in available for sale and $160 billion in held to maturity! Those bonds are all underwater and NOT REPORTED. That's a Trojan horse!

3x earnings presents a great opportunity.
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Philip J Fry
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In reply to Brewmaster • 9:15a, 3/24/23
AG
perma Brew doomster said:
Philip J Fry said:
30K has motivated me to build my own Tradingview strategy.

https://www.tradingview.com/script/aiUYF8lu-MACD-with-Adjustable-Angle-Strategy/

Basically, I'm using MACD, but I've included an "angle at crossover" adjustable variable. I'm using this to try and reduce the number of false signals. So far, I've been using it to judge entries for SPY and UPRO. I'll take a 60% win rate.
This is brilliant! dropping it into SPY it looks to have a very high success rate. Great work brother!


A couple things I've noticed already:

1). I need to add a check to see if the MACD is XX below the signal. This indicator fails when a timid crossover is made with a more robust most down.
2: still want to get RSI in here somehow. I've had varying levels of success so far.
3: needs a trailing stop loss.
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Bonfire1996
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9:17a, 3/24/23
AG
Comerica is a problem

$73.4 billion in total deposits

$53.4 Billion loans
$19 Billion in bond portfolio that is underwater $3.5 Billion so really $15.5 Billion
$6.3 Billion in cash

So $75.2 Billion net assets supported by $73.4 Billion in Deposits. If customers pull their money, they are effed
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ProgN
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In reply to Bonfire1996 • 9:29a, 3/24/23
Bonfire1996 said:
ProgN said:
Hey Bonfire, when you have a chance watch this short segment that I saw the other day and give me your opinion. I've been watching $WAL and it seems pretty safe and also easy to trade in this volatile market.

WAL lists most of their bond investments as "available for sale" which is good. The Trojan horse for these banks is the "held to maturity" portion of the bond portfolio. The banks DO NOT have to report unrealized losses in the "Held to maturity" portion, and in a liquidity crisis, everything is for sale and nothing is held to maturity.

WAL has $7.1 billion available for sale that is under water by $680 million. But they only have $1.3 billion in held to maturity, so that's good. Compare to Schwab, who is on the brink, $75 Billion in available for sale and $160 billion in held to maturity! Those bonds are all underwater and NOT REPORTED. That's a Trojan horse!

3x earnings presents a great opportunity.


Thank you, so it doesn't sound negative to you then either?
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Triple_Bagger
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In reply to Dan Scott • 9:32a, 3/24/23
Dan Scott said:
BRDS up 33% this morning

I stumbled on this by luck. I was reading 10Ks and proxy statements of companies that stocks got crushed to see how much their executives made and overall share base compensation. BRDS was one of few where executives didn't make outrageous money or give themselves huge RSUs. I then saw insider buying and last week they reported they'd be cash flow positive in 2023. One time $2B market cap now down to $40M seemed cheap.
Take your profits. I sold at 0.19 premarket after buying at 0.13 Wednesday. Thanks for bringing it to the board.
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Triple_Bagger
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In reply to Bonfire1996 • 9:34a, 3/24/23
Bonfire1996 said:
Comerica is a problem

$73.4 billion in total deposits

$53.4 Billion loans
$19 Billion in bond portfolio that is underwater $3.5 Billion so really $15.5 Billion
$6.3 Billion in cash

So $75.2 Billion net assets supported by $73.4 Billion in Deposits. If customers pull their money, they are effed
Thoughts on PacWest Bancorp (PACW)?

I bought this morning at $8.90 and sold 12/15 C10s at 3.30. It pays a $1 dividend, which is about 11% at my purchase price.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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9:42a, 3/24/23
AG
I'm up for the week.

"Don't lose your ass on a Friday"
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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Dan Scott
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9:44a, 3/24/23
AG
NIR.

New AI SPAC that closed today. SPAC valued at about a $1B but they had about 60M revenue last year and growing. One to watch for a trade
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Brewmaster
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In reply to Triple_Bagger • 9:53a, 3/24/23
AG
Triple_Bagger said:
Bonfire1996 said:
Comerica is a problem

$73.4 billion in total deposits

$53.4 Billion loans
$19 Billion in bond portfolio that is underwater $3.5 Billion so really $15.5 Billion
$6.3 Billion in cash

So $75.2 Billion net assets supported by $73.4 Billion in Deposits. If customers pull their money, they are effed
Thoughts on PacWest Bancorp (PACW)?

I bought this morning at $8.90 and sold 12/15 C10s at 3.30. It pays a $1 dividend, which is about 11% at my purchase price.
PACW
4.2 billion in capital

see Bonfire's post!
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Triple_Bagger
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In reply to Brewmaster • 10:07a, 3/24/23
Thanks!
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Bonfire1996
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In reply to ProgN • 10:07a, 3/24/23
AG
ProgN said:
Bonfire1996 said:
ProgN said:
Hey Bonfire, when you have a chance watch this short segment that I saw the other day and give me your opinion. I've been watching $WAL and it seems pretty safe and also easy to trade in this volatile market.

WAL lists most of their bond investments as "available for sale" which is good. The Trojan horse for these banks is the "held to maturity" portion of the bond portfolio. The banks DO NOT have to report unrealized losses in the "Held to maturity" portion, and in a liquidity crisis, everything is for sale and nothing is held to maturity.

WAL has $7.1 billion available for sale that is under water by $680 million. But they only have $1.3 billion in held to maturity, so that's good. Compare to Schwab, who is on the brink, $75 Billion in available for sale and $160 billion in held to maturity! Those bonds are all underwater and NOT REPORTED. That's a Trojan horse!

3x earnings presents a great opportunity.


Thank you, so it doesn't sound negative to you then either?
I like it.
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Bonfire1996
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In reply to Triple_Bagger • 10:14a, 3/24/23
AG
Triple_Bagger said:
Bonfire1996 said:
Comerica is a problem

$73.4 billion in total deposits

$53.4 Billion loans
$19 Billion in bond portfolio that is underwater $3.5 Billion so really $15.5 Billion
$6.3 Billion in cash

So $75.2 Billion net assets supported by $73.4 Billion in Deposits. If customers pull their money, they are effed
Thoughts on PacWest Bancorp (PACW)?

I bought this morning at $8.90 and sold 12/15 C10s at 3.30. It pays a $1 dividend, which is about 11% at my purchase price.

$4.8 billion in available for sale, underwater bonds now valued at $3.9 Billion
$2.2 Billion in held to maturity bonds that will be underwater as well.
$2.2 Billion in cash

Loans + Bond portfolio are in excess of their deposit base. If people withdraw money, that presents liquidity crunch and they have to take losses which will hurt the stock.

That's pretty lean. There are better options IMO
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SoTXAg09
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10:19a, 3/24/23
AG
What a freaking chop fest. Looks like H&S on SPY 5 min.
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