aggiedaniel06 said:

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If you're interested in selling your SBNY shares to a counterparty in an off-exchange transaction, drop me note.

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Sent you a PM brutha.

I'm tempted to sell now that it's green

Bonfire1996 said:

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Howdy: Bank decision maker here. Let's keep this lesson here for you, family and friends.

Is your bank at risk in the current bond portfolio mess? Do they have unrealized losses that could cause financial contagion? Good news: the info is public record.

1. Go to the FFIEC website: https://cdr.ffiec.gov/public/ManageFacsimiles.aspx

2. Select Call Report in the drop down menu box

3. Search by institution name to find your bank.

4. Download report and scroll to Schedule "RI-A" which is the breakdown of bank equity/capital. Usually around page 10. Line 10 of the schedule is titled "Other Comprehensive Income" and this is where unrealized losses in the bond portfolios are listed.

Divide the unrealized losses by total capital, and there you see if you have a problem. SVB was approaching 100%

Texas banks are affected. Some much worse than others. Some really big and some really small.

For example and to appropriately scare you:
Frost: $4.75 Billion in total capital, $1.65 Billion in unrealized losses, or 35% of their equity.

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Great info Bonfire...

We are currently doing some shuffling around with banks.

Question for you... Is there anyway to dig into what those unrealized losses are? (CRE vs underwater treasuries vs bad loans)

Thanks in advance!

Ag92NGranbury said:

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Bonfire1996 said:

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Howdy: Bank decision maker here. Let's keep this lesson here for you, family and friends.

Is your bank at risk in the current bond portfolio mess? Do they have unrealized losses that could cause financial contagion? Good news: the info is public record.

1. Go to the FFIEC website: https://cdr.ffiec.gov/public/ManageFacsimiles.aspx

2. Select Call Report in the drop down menu box

3. Search by institution name to find your bank.

4. Download report and scroll to Schedule "RI-A" which is the breakdown of bank equity/capital. Usually around page 10. Line 10 of the schedule is titled "Other Comprehensive Income" and this is where unrealized losses in the bond portfolios are listed.

Divide the unrealized losses by total capital, and there you see if you have a problem. SVB was approaching 100%

Texas banks are affected. Some much worse than others. Some really big and some really small.

For example and to appropriately scare you:
Frost: $4.75 Billion in total capital, $1.65 Billion in unrealized losses, or 35% of their equity.

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Great info Bonfire...

We are currently doing some shuffling around with banks.

Question for you... Is there anyway to dig into what those unrealized losses are? (CRE vs underwater treasuries vs bad loans)

Thanks in advance!

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You can get an idea about their loan portfolio by looking at the loan loss reserve. The unrealized losses is almost exclusively going to be securities portfolio.

My bank is a small town bank and they have 0 in the line 10. Is that realistic or is it just that it wasn't reported?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-11873587/Lance-Reddick-dead-60-Wire-John-Wick-star-dies-natural-causes-home-LA.html

Quote:

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The Wire star Lance Reddick has died aged 60 - just days after failing to turn up to a premiere in New York.

Reddick - who played Cedric Daniels in the hit crime series - died from 'suddenly' and from natural causes,' his agent Mia Hansen said.

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Quote:

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Tributes poured in for the 'incredibly talented' actor after his body was reportedly discovered in his home in Studio City, California at 9.30am on Friday.

Just yesterday he uploaded a photo of himself curled up with his three dogs at home in an Instagram promotional post about Hard Rock hotels and National Puppy Day.

Reddick was in the middle of a promotional tour for his franchise John Wick in which he starred as the concierge Charon.

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Well this f'ing sucks to cap off my day. I couldn't wait to see John Wick 4 next weekend but this dampens my excitement. He was a good actor.

Hmmmmm…….

It's overextended but I'd be scared to short it.

Shooting star with high volume. Eject.

ProgN said:

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It's overextended but I'd be scared to short it.

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Wish I would have caught this prior to close. I'd have shorted it out a month or so. Not far OTM.

How about this view.

If I wasn't expecting a dovish Fed next week then I'd agree, but NVDA prints money and pivot by JPow could send this to $300 easily, especially if enough people shorted it this week. There's plenty of other stocks to short than playing with this rattlesnake while blindfolded. Throw AMD into that same boat. JMO

How about this one?

ProgN said:

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Why the mean emoji? I wasn't being rude, besides I'm an inebriated half Irishman on St. Patty's Day so I'd hate to River Dance up and down your ass tonight.

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LOL that wasn't at you brother! You know that. It was at SPY claiming then losing MT today. Next week will tell us something.

FJ43 said:

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ProgN said:

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Why the mean emoji? I wasn't being rude, besides I'm an inebriated half Irishman on St. Patty's Day so I'd hate to River Dance up and down your ass tonight.

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LOL that wasn't at you brother! You know that. It was at SPY claiming then losing MT today. Next week will tell us something.

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It will be interesting to see how the market resolves next week, Yesterday, QQQ broke out of the channel holding it down since 2/2. But SPY looks closer to more downside.

GreasenUSA said:

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FJ43 said:

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ProgN said:

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Why the mean emoji? I wasn't being rude, besides I'm an inebriated half Irishman on St. Patty's Day so I'd hate to River Dance up and down your ass tonight.

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LOL that wasn't at you brother! You know that. It was at SPY claiming then losing MT today. Next week will tell us something.

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It will be interesting to see how the market resolves next week, Yesterday, QQQ broke out of the channel holding it down since 2/2. But SPY looks closer to more downside.

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I don't like the level it lost but it was an inside day on opex so we shall see.

lobwedgephil said:

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$30,000 Millionaire said:

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wanderer said:

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Will you short the stock or go with long dated puts in case it wants to ride +3 ATR for a bit?

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Blow off top is likely first. You want to see evidence of a trend change. I think if you were to buy April 270/250 puts it would probably be automatic to make money.

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Been waiting as well, for the red line or trend line for me. So would love blow off top idea. That said, semi money flow extremely bullish.

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$6 rejection off the line mentioned. Thanks to @30k for the reminder on nice setup.

Which way we going?

Even if there's a Fed pivot next week?

Great performance. Mrs FJ and I have seen it several times.

ProgN said:

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Even if there's a Fed pivot next week?

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on top of that, there's strong seasonality that suggests up up and away (historically this is lift off time). We also have this sell off going into this seasonality, both short term and longer. We broke out of a downtrend from March 7th yesterday.

and bitcoin keeps bull flagging, at 27,5 now and doesn't look done.

SPY breaking downtrend yesterday... but that could also be the shoulder and head of a H&S. if OA says, down we go, I'm sure I'll end up wrong!

perma Brew doomster said:

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ProgN said:

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Even if there's a Fed pivot next week?

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on top of that, there's strong seasonality that suggests up up and away (historically this is lift off time). We also have this sell off going into this seasonality, both short term and longer. We broke out of a downtrend from March 7th yesterday.

and bitcoin keeps bull flagging, at 27,5 now and doesn't look done.

SPY breaking downtrend yesterday... but that could also be the shoulder and head of a H&S. if OA says, down we go, I'm sure I'll end up wrong!

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Not seeing a SPY downtrend break you're referring to. March 6th or 7th. Actually the opposite. Rejection.

I'm not saying we go down, just pointing out the technical chart. I have a lot of hedged longs and it will be interesting to see if that resistance line holds. 4175 was last level and the current trend resistance comes in around 4062. That gives a decent upside period from current 3960 mark. It also would align with seasonality move into May.

Regarding rate pausing, let's say they raise 25bps and pause. I see that extending the inflationary parabolas. I don't see them cutting rates anytime soon with 6% inflation. Higher rates, for longer period. And should their bail out policies for financial institutions continue, there is no way inflation subsides. So then what?

All this on top of the political dynamics means volatility, so any multi-day rally should get us openings to enter VIX calls. Since the Trump news is he will be arrested early this week, along with the Fed Wednesday, you'd expect some wild swings. I entered QQQ puts for this reason. Also did so because everyone is talking about how it's divergent from the rest of the macro markets. Yeah, that never ends well.

oldarmy1 said:

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so any multi-day rally should get us openings to enter VIX calls.

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OA you made my morning

I agree on caution re: what OA posted.

It is also possible it is a shallow cross because of the blow off top extension.

easier to see on hourly chart not daily... here, I'll redraw on SPX and a W look to those 2 drops as well. I fully realize I'm contradicting OA and you, so I'm sure I'll be wrong!

and that last hour sell volume does not bode well for my argument