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25,032,978 Views | 233812 Replies | Last: 33 sec ago by TxAgLaw03RW
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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In reply to ProgN • 3:58p, 3/16/23
ProgN said:
vette said:
FED ain't done. No way JMoney doesn't do at least one more 25bps hike. Too much egg on his face if he doesn't
He doesn't want to be the Fed chief that causes several banks to collapse because he waited too long to start raising interest rates and then aggressively raised them to catch up. Even if he raises .25, it will be the last before a pause and probably be accompanied by dovish comments.
Yep. Agree.

I guess we now know why JP can't just come out with multiple 1.00% hikes after years of 0.00% - 0.25%. Those bank bond positions told us a lot. I had no idea that Hold To Maturity (HTM) did not have to be brought to market each month or quarter to reflect value. What a way to hide some stuff. Its hatched a whole lot of ideas in my thought process. Just not certain at the moment if I can legally justify it, but I'm working on it.
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ProgN
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In reply to vette • 4:05p, 3/16/23
vette said:
ProgN said:
vette said:
FED ain't done. No way JMoney doesn't do at least one more 25bps hike. Too much egg on his face if he doesn't
He doesn't want to be the Fed chief that causes several banks to collapse because he waited too long to start raising interest rates and then aggressively raised them to catch up. Even if he raises .25, it will be the last before a pause and probably be accompanied by dovish comments.
Hope you're right, as I am in the CRE space, but I think there will be two more hikes. Market is already starting to settle, giving him some rope to make these hikes
Personally, I don't think he should raise at all because it takes about 9 months after a hike to have an effect on the economy so the last 5 rate hikes haven't even had their full effect yet.
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vette
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In reply to ProgN • 4:10p, 3/16/23
AG
ProgN said:
vette said:
ProgN said:
vette said:
FED ain't done. No way JMoney doesn't do at least one more 25bps hike. Too much egg on his face if he doesn't
He doesn't want to be the Fed chief that causes several banks to collapse because he waited too long to start raising interest rates and then aggressively raised them to catch up. Even if he raises .25, it will be the last before a pause and probably be accompanied by dovish comments.
Hope you're right, as I am in the CRE space, but I think there will be two more hikes. Market is already starting to settle, giving him some rope to make these hikes
Personally, I don't think he should raise at all because it takes about 9 months after a hike to have an effect on the economy so the last 5 rate hikes haven't even had their full effect yet.
I don't think he should either for those same reasons
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Bonfire1996
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4:16p, 3/16/23
AG
He has to raise to project both confidence and control, but his comments will be definitive in that they will pause to bring data forward. July we start cutting.

Even with a raise, this meeting will be seen as the pivot point.
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Dan Scott
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5:10p, 3/16/23
AG
FRC down 20% AH. Back to Trading at the level before the news came out
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Bonfire1996
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In reply to Dan Scott • 6:04p, 3/16/23
AG
Dan Scott said:
FRC down 20% AH. Back to Trading at the level before the news came out
Fresh deposits don't eliminate the unrecognized bond portfolio losses that are going to get worse when JPow raises rates next week.
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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In reply to Bonfire1996 • 6:10p, 3/16/23
Thank you for all the information you provide us, especially this week.
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aggiedaniel06
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In reply to M4 Benelli • 6:47p, 3/16/23
AG
If you're interested in selling your SBNY shares to a counterparty in an off-exchange transaction, drop me note.
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Bonfire1996
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In reply to Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX • 8:11p, 3/16/23
AG
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Thank you for all the information you provide us, especially this week.
You are welcome. As a follow up on FRC, this show of support through deposits is so fake. Deposits mean nothing.

FRC must be hot, hot garbage. If these banks truly felt confident in FRC, they'd do what they did with TARP, and they'd creat a new equity class of stock with warrants and actually put their money at risk. That solves the bond portfolio problem, that solves the confidence problem.

But they didn't do that. And that is key.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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8:42p, 3/16/23
AG
Been waiting for this. Time to short
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wanderer
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 8:44p, 3/16/23
Will you short the stock or go with long dated puts in case it wants to ride +3 ATR for a bit?
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$30,000 Millionaire
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In reply to wanderer • 9:15p, 3/16/23
AG
wanderer said:
Will you short the stock or go with long dated puts in case it wants to ride +3 ATR for a bit?


Blow off top is likely first. You want to see evidence of a trend change. I think if you were to buy April 270/250 puts it would probably be automatic to make money.
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lobwedgephil
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 10:04p, 3/16/23
$30,000 Millionaire said:
wanderer said:
Will you short the stock or go with long dated puts in case it wants to ride +3 ATR for a bit?


Blow off top is likely first. You want to see evidence of a trend change. I think if you were to buy April 270/250 puts it would probably be automatic to make money.
Been waiting as well, for the red line or trend line for me. So would love blow off top idea. That said, semi money flow extremely bullish.

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Brewmaster
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In reply to Bonfire1996 • 10:05p, 3/16/23
AG
Bonfire1996 said:
Howdy: Bank decision maker here. Let's keep this lesson here for you, family and friends.

Is your bank at risk in the current bond portfolio mess? Do they have unrealized losses that could cause financial contagion? Good news: the info is public record.

1. Go to the FFIEC website: https://cdr.ffiec.gov/public/ManageFacsimiles.aspx

2. Select Call Report in the drop down menu box

3. Search by institution name to find your bank.

4. Download report and scroll to Schedule "RI-A" which is the breakdown of bank equity/capital. Usually around page 10. Line 10 of the schedule is titled "Other Comprehensive Income" and this is where unrealized losses in the bond portfolios are listed.

Divide the unrealized losses by total capital, and there you see if you have a problem. SVB was approaching 100%

Texas banks are affected. Some much worse than others. Some really big and some really small.

For example and to appropriately scare you:
Frost: $4.75 Billion in total capital, $1.65 Billion in unrealized losses, or 35% of their equity.
went back and re-read this and remember looking up USAA. They are in worse shape (much worse) than Frost. I think the number was 68%, roughly 6 billion vs 9 billion. Interesting times ahead!
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Brewmaster
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8:31a, 3/17/23
AG
MARA misses, EPS of -$3.14, missed by 2.95
revenue of 28.42M but miss by 6.2M

and of course it's rocketing upward.

Sure is quiet in here!
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Red Pear Luke (BCS)
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9:17a, 3/17/23
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AG
I think all these banks - Central and TBTF - are throwing money down a bottomless pit. They are going to have to keep fronting hoards of cash to keep the ship rightsized as-it stands currently.

If Jpow goes with the 25bps rate hike - thats another torpedo coming straight for the port bow. ECB already fired one at Europe and the Credit Suisse reports of defaults prior to the Swiss Central Bank lifeline of $54B. Which, I want to point out that the Saudi Arabia National Bank of $4.2B injection last year was worth 9.9% of the company. The Swiss Bank just gave them a 115% of their net worth lifeline of capital to keep them right sized up. They are on the edge of border line default and have $8B over their presumed market cap in extra liquidity.

Does that ring anyone's alarm bells? Says to me that the mess of them being underwater to us but solvent is better then untangling the Credit Default Swaps which is uncontainable contagion for the entire banking system. And those CDS are already trading at a huge premium.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/17/credit-suisse-sheds-another-5percent-as-traders-digest-emergency-liquidity.html
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Definitely Not A Cop
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In reply to Red Pear Luke (BCS) • 9:24a, 3/17/23
AG
Are they suggesting raising rates more? I thought they were talking about coming back down on them and then just lying that more inflation isn't happening.
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Tex117
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9:51a, 3/17/23
AG
That interest rate hike is coming.

Today's winner for the General Board Burrito Lottery is:

Tex117
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Agsrback12
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In reply to Tex117 • 9:53a, 3/17/23
Tex117 said:
That interest rate hike is coming.


Looks like the market knows it. Plus who wants to hold over the weekend after last week?
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vette
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10:03a, 3/17/23
AG
Market still pricing in 25bps hike (75% chance)

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
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wanderer
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 10:07a, 3/17/23
NVDA gonna put in a shooting star today?
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$30,000 Millionaire
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10:15a, 3/17/23
AG
SPX is bar coding at the moment. Haven't seen it like this in a while. Looks like a penny stock.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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10:23a, 3/17/23
AG
Looked like a reversal but it wasn't.
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SF2004
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10:35a, 3/17/23
AG
Look at $MSFT and $NVDA…

How are those not short opportunities?
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$30,000 Millionaire
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10:45a, 3/17/23
AG
They're going to try for 3895 area on SPX. There will be trapped shorts there.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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In reply to SF2004 • 10:45a, 3/17/23
AG
SF2004 said:
Look at $MSFT and $NVDA…

How are those not short opportunities?


They are.
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Dan Scott
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10:59a, 3/17/23
AG
NVDA had the AI hype and now getting the crypto hype from all the bank problems
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Bonfire1996
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11:06a, 3/17/23
AG
When you guys want to go long on banks, GS isn't exposed to retail, doesn't have an underwater bond portfolio of any consequence, and is getting hammered by the overall industry.
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Boy Named Sue
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11:18a, 3/17/23
AG
30k is in the sandbox today, and the jury trial I had next week just got delayed to next month so my day is now wide open to trade. Gonna try not to lose my ass on a Friday...
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Brian Earl Spilner
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11:19a, 3/17/23
AG
I'm long GOOGL but I'm tempted to sell around here (my cost basis average) since I think there could be a selloff coming. Then look for a re-entry.
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ibdm98
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In reply to Boy Named Sue • 11:22a, 3/17/23
AG
Boy Named Sue said:
30k is in the sandbox today, and the jury trial I had next week just got delayed to next month so my day is now wide open to trade. Gonna try not to lose my ass on a Friday...

Since you mentioned 30k, I feel obligated to share some of his wisdom…

"Thy shall not lose thine ass on a Friday. Fridays shall be for jacking thine hoes and stealing thy paper."
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Brewmaster
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In reply to Brian Earl Spilner • 11:46a, 3/17/23
AG
Brian Earl Spilner said:
I'm long GOOGL but I'm tempted to sell around here (my cost basis average) since I think there could be a selloff coming. Then look for a re-entry.
I'd wait til this afternoon at least. You may get a squeeze and more $ per share. It's also in the middle of forming a cup, back up to 108. then 112, then 120's.

If you're holding it long term, nothing wrong with this area as entry.
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Boy Named Sue
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12:01p, 3/17/23
AG
Boring action. May go fishing instead
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EliteZags
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12:11p, 3/17/23
AG
anyone else picking up this random dip on ENPH
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Golf1
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12:30p, 3/17/23
AG
I saved my a$$ on a Friday after a terrible trading day yesterday.
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