End of the month
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Last: 6 hrs ago by jamey
Nobody takes China's published numbers seriously, how much they will be discounted is the question.Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
If China economic numbers come out positive tomorrow, energy is going to run like a scalded dog. It would confirm the re-opening surge and demand for oil in a world-wide crude short supply scenario (that is contrary to many, but we'll see who is laughing last...hint....10 supertankers from China are headed to the U.S. to pick up oil in March, hmmmm,...)
My cost is so high I'm holding strong. Come one dividends! 
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
If China economic numbers come out positive tomorrow, energy is going to run like a scalded dog. It would confirm the re-opening surge and demand for oil in a world-wide crude short supply scenario (that is contrary to many, but we'll see who is laughing last...hint....10 supertankers from China are headed to the U.S. to pick up oil in March, hmmmm,...)
Did u happen to hear the O&G expert this morning on Bloomberg? He was discussing the rangebound nature of the oil market for the last 3-4 months. He commented something to the effect that the oil futures price is stuck in contango and is keeping the price from moving higher.
That's all over my head but would defer to an expert such as yourself. There seems to be a Fed/Saudi put that anytime it gets near $70 it gets gobbled up. He mentioned that below the $60-65 range for oil, it's an abyss.
Does this sort of thing influence your decision to buy oil stocks at all?
$60-$65 basically can't happen, because the USA would use that price to refill the SPR.
Refilling SPR + meeting current demand, even in a recessionary environment means a hard floor at $70.
Chevron came out today and supported the notion that $60 oil means 10% net profit which is a MONSTER margin in oil and gas, historically. And that's Chevron who Farmer thinks is not near as well run as XOM.
I'm personally all in on VLO trading at 4.9x forward earnings with guidance saying their diesel profits are going way up in 3Q and beyond.
Refilling SPR + meeting current demand, even in a recessionary environment means a hard floor at $70.
Chevron came out today and supported the notion that $60 oil means 10% net profit which is a MONSTER margin in oil and gas, historically. And that's Chevron who Farmer thinks is not near as well run as XOM.
I'm personally all in on VLO trading at 4.9x forward earnings with guidance saying their diesel profits are going way up in 3Q and beyond.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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BSG, I didn't see/hear the expert on Bloomberg.
Right now, there are so many Long or Short signals in the market that it gets confusing.
Currently we are in build season where refineries will take some operational down time and prepare for driving season come end of April. U.S. refineries are operating at 85% to 87% of capacity.
What I do know is this
-G7 Price Caps on crude do not work
-G7 Price Caps on refined products are not working
-Russia is cutting back production
-Russia is cutting back exports from their western ports
-China is re-opening and I doubt they want the rest of the world to think they/China were harmed in any way during the 3 year Covid lock down. That's why I believe their economic reports released tonight/tomorrow will be favorable toward China
-Russia cut off oil via the Druzhba pipeline to Poland
-Russia will turn the tap off to EU
-China is on a crude oil buying spree worldwide
-U.S. (Citibank and some others) and EU keep talking about a crude oil surplus and prices should be lower; however, this Administration just made an announcement of buying at $74 per barrel. That's $2 higher than the last price range this Administration quoted - $68 to $72. As a result of the $74 statement, they just raised the price floor $2 per barrel on themselves. Keep in mind, this Administration was unable to source/purchase a measly 3 million barrels of crude for Feb delivery to refill the SPR. U.S. Govt can't buy it, but yet they state there is a an over-supply. And, U.S. Govt still wants to release more barrels from the SPR.
-I have not read where a single U.S. oil CEO has claimed that crude was in an over-supply state. Quite the opposite,....by all of them.
-U.S. O&G capex and opex investments continue to be at just enough to keep companies operating efficiently. There is no planned additional spending/investing for the future for growth/increased production. The Administration keeps the unfriendly attitude toward fossil fuels and the o&g industry will not help JB....that's why profits are going to share buyback programs.
-IMO, there are some artificial means continuing to put pressure on Brent and WTI Futures and the threat of SPR releases may continue. The artificial means cannot/will not hold the prices down forever. Once those artificial restraints come off, oil price will surge.
-Citibank/Ed Morse touted crude oil at $65, or less, since late December 2022 and they have been quiet ever since. Everybody else is $90 to $100 crude oil between now and the end of the year - as an average!
-Windfall profit taxes in EU are yielding further cutbacks by o&g industry over there, I believe the production cutback is now estimated today at 35%
-Russia is trading in Yuan for oil
-Iraq moving to Yuan currency for oil
I might have to trudge through March with shackles on my ankles in the energy sector, but come driving season or before there will be wings on my feet. There's just to much evidence pointing to the bull side. The players are on the bear side. WB, Vanguard and Blackrock aren't selling O&G stocks either.
Hope this helps in some way.
Right now, there are so many Long or Short signals in the market that it gets confusing.
Currently we are in build season where refineries will take some operational down time and prepare for driving season come end of April. U.S. refineries are operating at 85% to 87% of capacity.
What I do know is this
-G7 Price Caps on crude do not work
-G7 Price Caps on refined products are not working
-Russia is cutting back production
-Russia is cutting back exports from their western ports
-China is re-opening and I doubt they want the rest of the world to think they/China were harmed in any way during the 3 year Covid lock down. That's why I believe their economic reports released tonight/tomorrow will be favorable toward China
-Russia cut off oil via the Druzhba pipeline to Poland
-Russia will turn the tap off to EU
-China is on a crude oil buying spree worldwide
-U.S. (Citibank and some others) and EU keep talking about a crude oil surplus and prices should be lower; however, this Administration just made an announcement of buying at $74 per barrel. That's $2 higher than the last price range this Administration quoted - $68 to $72. As a result of the $74 statement, they just raised the price floor $2 per barrel on themselves. Keep in mind, this Administration was unable to source/purchase a measly 3 million barrels of crude for Feb delivery to refill the SPR. U.S. Govt can't buy it, but yet they state there is a an over-supply. And, U.S. Govt still wants to release more barrels from the SPR.
-I have not read where a single U.S. oil CEO has claimed that crude was in an over-supply state. Quite the opposite,....by all of them.
-U.S. O&G capex and opex investments continue to be at just enough to keep companies operating efficiently. There is no planned additional spending/investing for the future for growth/increased production. The Administration keeps the unfriendly attitude toward fossil fuels and the o&g industry will not help JB....that's why profits are going to share buyback programs.
-IMO, there are some artificial means continuing to put pressure on Brent and WTI Futures and the threat of SPR releases may continue. The artificial means cannot/will not hold the prices down forever. Once those artificial restraints come off, oil price will surge.
-Citibank/Ed Morse touted crude oil at $65, or less, since late December 2022 and they have been quiet ever since. Everybody else is $90 to $100 crude oil between now and the end of the year - as an average!
-Windfall profit taxes in EU are yielding further cutbacks by o&g industry over there, I believe the production cutback is now estimated today at 35%
-Russia is trading in Yuan for oil
-Iraq moving to Yuan currency for oil
I might have to trudge through March with shackles on my ankles in the energy sector, but come driving season or before there will be wings on my feet. There's just to much evidence pointing to the bull side. The players are on the bear side. WB, Vanguard and Blackrock aren't selling O&G stocks either.
Hope this helps in some way.
Just a redneck guess. We could see SPY 392.70-393.30…ish tomorrow.
Trade wisely!
Trade wisely!
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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401K portfolio of those who bought the “Golden Cross” at 4200 😂 pic.twitter.com/koTjstVsMq
— TIC TOC TIC (@TicTocTick) February 22, 2023
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
I'm too tired and lazy to go find my post on this thread, but I said there's going to be a lot of stranded retail astronauts last month. FOMO sucked a ton of people in because they 'didn't want to miss out'.
ProgN said:
I'm too tired and lazy to go find my post on this thread, but I said there's going to be a lot of stranded retail astronauts last month. FOMO sucked a ton of people in because they 'didn't want to miss out'.
Been a traders market for a long while now. I could probably argue both directions but this doesn't feel over to me. 1, 3 , 6 months don't know.
Like we've said so many times. Cash is a position. Unless of course you don't care about drawdown.
For me I don't care if I miss a little upside.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/01/asia-markets-pmi-numbers-china-japan-australia-manufacturing-pmi.html
Quote:
Asia-Pacific markets mostly rose as investors digested a slew of key economic data across the region. China's National Bureau of Statistics also reported its official manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose to 52.6 in February, the highest since April 2012.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng index rose 3.04% leading gains in the region and the Hang Seng Tech index climbed 4.6%. In mainland China, the Shenzhen Component fell 0.89% and the Shanghai Composite also shed 0.69%.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200
was up 0.11% after GDP for the fourth quarter of 2022 came in at 0.5%, marking its fifth straight quarter expansion.
In Japan, the Nikkei 225
was trading flat and the Topix was down 0.1% as factory activity in February shrank at its fastest pace in two and a half years, a private survey showed.
Private surveys for India's manufacturing activity are scheduled to be released later today.
I'm long vol via UVXY and short S&P via SPXS
We've crossed the 8/21 EMA on the daily. I can see a little peak back above for a while but that makes me overall bearish. We've gotten close to the 8 EMA twice since the flip and gotten knocked down hard both times.
Feels like the ultimate dirty would be a rip to 4040 (or even worse a wick above it) then and absolute plummet afterwards… that would suck in more bulls and allow shorts another great entry.
Just my 2 cents and is legal financial advice (but doesn't make it worth a ****)
We've crossed the 8/21 EMA on the daily. I can see a little peak back above for a while but that makes me overall bearish. We've gotten close to the 8 EMA twice since the flip and gotten knocked down hard both times.
Feels like the ultimate dirty would be a rip to 4040 (or even worse a wick above it) then and absolute plummet afterwards… that would suck in more bulls and allow shorts another great entry.
Just my 2 cents and is legal financial advice (but doesn't make it worth a ****)
won't be able to trade for the remainder of the week. pretty gross action yesterday after I looked at it this morning. Vol will need to make a comeback.
I'll be watching VIX for a trade. I've set alerts. I'll go out to April Monthly most likely and not too far OTM.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
Charismatic Megafauna
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AG
Thinking about taking a lotto long if we revisit premarket spy low of 394.75. Thoughts?
Charismatic Megafauna said:
Thinking about taking a lotto long if we revisit premarket spy low of 394.75. Thoughts?
I'd wait for a fake breakdown personally. My connectivity is so bad I can't get charts and have to look at yahoo finance for delayed info.
Charismatic Megafauna
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AG
Thanks buddy
Across the pond with bad connectivity? Someplace fun i hope?
Across the pond with bad connectivity? Someplace fun i hope?
No. Not fun. Sucks. But I'll be home soon.
Now maybe wait for a fake breakout. Who knows which way this ends up today. Lots of evidence for a relief bounce ut not convinced of that either.
Keeping it simple. That right shoulder is undeniable at this point. Even if we are going higher the odds are this at least goes to a new low below SPX 3945.
$SPX Easy View. We've been watching the right shoulder continue to form, completing a H&S bearish formation. Buying the low channel and selling/shorting the upper channel paid off but weakness is being seen. Have your puts in place. pic.twitter.com/WHD36dCvC3
— Disciplined Trading (@oldarmy1) March 1, 2023
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AG
Sorry to hear that
$NVDA triggered a short signal
If going with any puts use Model T wave for entries. Did I need to say that?oldarmy1 said:
$NVDA triggered a short signal
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:CVX buyback program is good, but I doubt it will benefit that company and shareholders like XOM buyback has. XOM leadership was way ahead of CVX leadership and the XOM strategy is lapping CVX. CVX is just starting too late, but better late than never. Barron's analyst boosted XOM to a $140 this morn. I entered a new position in PXD at $199.60 - we'll see..Bonfire1996 said:
Chevron didn't even wait 30 days to increase its buyback amount. Wow. Tells you how cheap they consider their stock.
ETA 9:44am - I thinking PXD is over $205 by close of business Thursday.
may get there today
RIP $FIGSCarioca Corredor said:Sold FIGS calls today for 30% gain. Thx FJ43!FJ43 said:
Manage the trade and know your risk. As you know I'm in as well. Don't hesitate to cut if you hit your trade plan levels.
I'll try and post as I go on this one. Meetings are way overrated but consuming my time so not able to check or post real time. Just looking for good setups at night and take fewer high probability trades.
But…they don't always work so risk management is key.
FIGS ebida was a disaster compared to last year. Glad to have exited prior to earnings report
You see SPY flash above VWAP and now we've cratered back to day lows. Lookout! It might hold and continue the sideways right arm of the macro H&S but odds say breakdown.
Intraday H&S.....That it is happening right at key support means we likely get a pure signal for macro direction.
FJ43 said:
Just a redneck guess. We could see SPY 392.70-393.30…ish tomorrow.
Trade wisely!
Ehhh…..393.38
Close enough
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
What are the thoughts on NIO after it stabilizes from latest earnings?
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Yep, got today and tomorrow. Whoever in the market that wants the $5.58 dividend needs to buy before Close of trading 3/2. I think it will make it to $205 by then. I should have the dividend equivalent in-hand by Thurs via share price appreciation. If I sell tomorrow, I'll reload PXD after Ex Day(3/3) or after Payout (3/10). If I hold, I hold. ...... Maybe turn PXD seller in June.. Lots of time between now and June.
ETA 3/1/2023 @ 12:38pm: CORRECTION - PXD Payout Date is 3/17, not 3/10 as I posted. XOM is Payout Date 3/10.
ETA 3/1/2023 @ 12:38pm: CORRECTION - PXD Payout Date is 3/17, not 3/10 as I posted. XOM is Payout Date 3/10.
oldarmy1 said:
You see SPY flash above VWAP and now we've cratered back to day lows. Lookout! It might hold and continue the sideways right arm of the macro H&S but odds say breakdown.
Assuming this holds true by end of day do you see us reaching and testing 385$ area? or even lower?
Don't have my chart to know when next major support is to ask specifically about that point
Flashed below key SPX mark 3945 and then failed breakdown shot us back near days high before another failed rally and here we sit smack on Model T. I swear, amazing.
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