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24,627,959 Views | 233268 Replies | Last: 46 min ago by Heineken-Ashi
spud1910
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AG
FJ43 said:


But…they don't always work so risk management is key.
I am definitely learning to do better.
FJ43
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My guess…..

One more push down then scalp the bounce.

Get out of the way after that and sit on sidelines.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

lobwedgephil
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BaylorSpineGuy said:

lobwedgephil said:

BaylorSpineGuy said:

TLT close to attractive here. Major support around $98-99. Buying those '25 LEAPS if it comes that low



Thx for sharing. Are those puts sold or bought?
Those are puts bought. Just something to keep in mind, always could be hedge though.
Philip J Fry
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Well, here we are. Bumping up against 2 dollars which I said was my red line. In the past 25 years, it's only been lower 3 times. Think it's time to jump in and forget about it for a while.
FJ43
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Be careful out there gents. VIX over 23.

Trade wisely!
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

MavsAg
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How are you thinking of playing it? BOIL?
Charismatic Megafauna
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MavsAg said:

How are you thinking of playing it? BOIL?

https://www.fool.com/investing/stock-market/market-sectors/energy/natural-gas-stocks/
Note: boil is not on the list!
Eqt is probably what i would bet on if they can stay afloat. Need to look at their last earnings report, looks like they got a bump from it
There's also sjt (san juan basin trust)
Careful though, gas prices can stay really low for a looong time. The pure plays probably have greater r/r but the midstream companies make money no matter what
BaylorSpineGuy
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CHK and DVN pay reasonable dividends if that's your jive.

Not sure if they will cut dividends weigh their stock prices falling as much as they have.
Charismatic Megafauna
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I'll refrain from sharing my feelings on chk. I have and will only ever play them short
cryption
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Freeport is finally back online .... UNG has been my go to gas play for ages. No love for $UNG?
Philip J Fry
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MavsAg said:

How are you thinking of playing it? BOIL?


I've thought about it, but just how greedy are you? Over the last 25 years, an entry here has always doubled. Sometimes it's tripled or quadrupled.

It can still go lower too so it just depends on your stomach to watch your account go down before it reverses.

Edit: cryption beat me to it. I'm looking at ung.
Philip J Fry
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GreasenUSA said:

techno-ag said:

I meant 10 for BOIL. I can live with it bouncing from 10 to 12 for a while.
If Nat Gas goes into the low 2's, I'd imagine BOIL would have to announce their next reverse split. Looks like it takes it about 2-3 years on average for every split. Last one was April, 2020.


Nailed it. Now what about the split for those real degenerates. Do they split when it hits under 2?
Charismatic Megafauna
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So what's the fed speaker schedule today?
Edit: fomc minutes at 2
deadbq03
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On the topic of NG producers… I don't know much about them now that they've had a merger - but a couple years ago when I worked for a PE NG producer, Cabot was seen as best in class as far as public NG producers were concerned. We always compared ourselves to them (and came up a bit short).

They're now CTRA after a merge with Cimarex, and I believe that merger increased their exposure to oil, so they're not pure NG anymore (but maybe that's a good thing).

And as someone else mentioned - I would avoid CHK like the plague. Honestly not sure how they still exist. I've worked at two places that acquired assets from them and they are a total *show at all levels. Wells were junk and full of water, data was crap, and so on.
sts7049
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EngrAg14
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Charismatic Megafauna said:

So what's the fed speaker schedule today?
Edit: fomc minutes at 2
Shouldn't we expect the minutes to be similar to Powell's speech?
1/4 rate hikes, but without all the new data thats shown more may be needed.

So wouldn't markets jump upon the release or is a speech also included with the release?
GreasenUSA
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Philip J Fry said:

GreasenUSA said:

techno-ag said:

I meant 10 for BOIL. I can live with it bouncing from 10 to 12 for a while.
If Nat Gas goes into the low 2's, I'd imagine BOIL would have to announce their next reverse split. Looks like it takes it about 2-3 years on average for every split. Last one was April, 2020.


Nailed it. Now what about the split for those real degenerates. Do they split when it hits under 2?
I don't know what the fund's criteria actually is. Tried to dig a little, but didn't come up with anything. For reference, here is a tweet of the BOIL chart that shows where it was trading 2 weeks before their last reverse split in April, 2020.

techno-ag
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Philip J Fry said:

GreasenUSA said:

techno-ag said:

I meant 10 for BOIL. I can live with it bouncing from 10 to 12 for a while.
If Nat Gas goes into the low 2's, I'd imagine BOIL would have to announce their next reverse split. Looks like it takes it about 2-3 years on average for every split. Last one was April, 2020.


Nailed it. Now what about the split for those real degenerates. Do they split when it hits under 2?
BOIL is up about 25 cents so far this morning.
topher06
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Just chop until minutes, looks like
Dan Scott
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EngrAg14 said:

Charismatic Megafauna said:

So what's the fed speaker schedule today?
Edit: fomc minutes at 2
Shouldn't we expect the minutes to be similar to Powell's speech?
1/4 rate hikes, but without all the new data thats shown more may be needed.

So wouldn't markets jump upon the release or is a speech also included with the release?


The minutes I assume will confirm the debate about needing 50bps hike that was talked about last week.

My impression was the Fed had a plan and they were aligned. I think people believe more they don't have a clue.
Boy Named Sue
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Y'all are awful quiet. No plays leading into release at 1 pm?
Brian Earl Spilner
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Well BOIL is back to last Friday's levels, would be nice to see it get back to $6 before the week is up.
MAS444
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I really like the bold wallpaper too but also agree it'll go out of style sooner. Fighting that fight in my house now...
AgEng06
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MAS444 said:

I really like the bold wallpaper too but also agree it'll go out of style sooner. Fighting that fight in my house now...
quoting this, so it doesn't go away...
txaggie_08
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MAS444 said:

I really like the bold wallpaper too but also agree it'll go out of style sooner. Fighting that fight in my house now...
MAS444
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Edit - well damn, now I see what I did. What a dumbass.
Post removed:
by user
AgEng06
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MAS444 said:

Edit - well damn, now I see what I did. What a dumbass.
It's all in good fun. I've definitely posted on the wrong thread before.
South Platte
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MAS444 said:

Edit - well damn, now I see what I did. What a dumbass.
$30,000 Millionaire
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Today has not been my day.
GreasenUSA
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$30,000 Millionaire said:

Today has not been my day.
I don't see how it could be anyone's day. There was about a 30 minute period where the market made sense to me today. The rest of the day was really odd.
EngrAg14
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GreasenUSA said:

$30,000 Millionaire said:

Today has not been my day.
I don't see how it could be anyone's day. There was about a 30 minute period where the market made sense to me today. The rest of the day was really odd.
Just do the opposite of whatever makes sense.
This has worked so far
Boy Named Sue
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Glad to her I'm not the only one. Every time I thought I spotted an opportunity I was wrong. Got stopped out every single time.
Cookiemonster64
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$30k, you hate the idea of credit call spread on TSLA ? I'm hesitant because it's been resilient during this 170 point ES sell off.
GreasenUSA
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EngrAg14 said:

GreasenUSA said:

$30,000 Millionaire said:

Today has not been my day.
I don't see how it could be anyone's day. There was about a 30 minute period where the market made sense to me today. The rest of the day was really odd.
Just do the opposite of whatever makes sense.
This has worked so far
Well, fortunately it made sense while I was in my trade. I was able to hit my first profit target, then was stopped out on the rest.

Was tempted to re-enter. Glad I didn't, because I would have been stopped out each time I thought about it.
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