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24,672,411 Views | 233367 Replies | Last: 3 min ago by confucius_ag
FJ43
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$30,000 Millionaire said:

OA will run a good service in my opinion. He's a winner and more importantly a professional.
This
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

Philip J Fry
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AG
Once again, looking at my stock code, short sale ETF are all coming in strong on the buy side. SQQQ, TWM, TECS are leading the way.
SF2004
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texAZtea said:

I don't post in this thread often because I have nothing intelligent to add, but I read it every day.

My trading account is very small, partially because I'm early in my career and partiality to keep from losing it all. I have not pursued options because I don't understand the strategy well enough yet.

My trading is essentially switching between tqqq and sqqq when the 8 and 20 EMA's cross and there's confirmation that its not a fake-out. I make ~2% of the money i trade with on an average day. I can only trade 2 days a week and sit out days I don't understand.

This week I started looking at Heikin-Ashi candles for guidance on when to stay in a position or exit, and my average day jumped to 5% of the money I trade with just from not exiting way too early or too late. I wanted to say thanks to Heineken for being a proponent of that tool.


Define "confirm"… that is one term that seems to be up to interpretation each setup. The short term/long term cross being a sign of upside acceleration makes sense.

Everyone always hedges saying "wait for confirmation".

Then you have people saying "if the setup is there you likely missed it".

A lot like sports touts saying to take DAL -2.5 when only -3 is actually available… then when DAL wins by three they mark a win and you get a push.

Also noticed stock services do this… posting fills they were never possible.
Heineken-Ashi
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There are never certainties when trading. No charting can perfectly predict behavior of an entire market, whether manipulated by makers, influenced by algorithms, or dangling between retail bulls fighting against retail bears.

The best you can do is find something you trust and stick to it. And there's no one answer.

And to your specific issue, there's multiple strategies that do wait for confirmation of reversal and can limit losses if incorrect. Beer candles, also known as Heiden-Ashi candles, if properly used, are a phenomenal way to make sure you only enter after a reversal or after a period of indecision. This way, though you might not bottom tick, you stand a great chance of catching the trend. This is because the nature of the candle is an average of the period. It starts at the middle of the body of the last candle. So if it is pointing up with no lower wick, you are in an uptrend.

It won't make you rich to merely trade using these candles. But it will tell you when the trend are starting and give you decent warning that they have ended. It is up to you to put on protection through stops and hedges if a trend that you have entered does fail quickly.

What makes people really good is when they can line up 3-4 indicators that they FULLY understand. One might signal entry. One might signal overbought / oversold. One might signal institutional interest. One might signal potential of reversal. There's lots. Many many here will give insight and do regularly as to one's they trust.

Long story short, you cant be perfect. But you can employ sound and consistent strategies to give yourself the best chance. And many here are picking up on these through learning from others. It's amazing to see it work. The most successful traders are closer to a mile deep and inch wide than vice versa. The biggest obstruction, and I speak for experience, is attempting to become a jack of all trades.very few even have the time for that, even if they do have the intellectual capability.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
texAZtea
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I'll play.

Remembering that I am very new to trading and don't have a business degree...

"Confirm" to me is, or was, seeing several candles of the same color in a row with decent movement (I know, define "decent" and "movement") in each candle, along with those little volume bars not being lower than the average for the last hour, or day, or whatever time period I'm looking at.

Now, I look at the Heikin-Ashi candles to help make sense of what I'm seeing vs. what I did before.

I'm sure there's something wrong with what I said, and as I mentioned I'm new and not trying to teach anyone or hold myself up as an example that anyone should follow. That's just what I did.
ProgN
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Closing the market for President's day is the dumbest f'ing thing ever with respect to holidays. This just sucks!

Rant over
Definitely Not A Cop
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Yeah, what excuse do I have now to start drinking at 10:30?
$30,000 Millionaire
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I am taking all my compliance training today.
GreasenUSA
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I'm backtesting a strategy on SPY, cooking in the crockpot, and heading to a brewery in a few hours.
irish pete ag06
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I'm off of work because my office follows the stock market calendar
gougler08
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Just landed for team meetings this week, oil companies don't give a **** about Presidents Day
$30,000 Millionaire
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GreasenUSA said:

I'm backtesting a strategy on SPY, cooking in the crockpot, and heading to a brewery in a few hours.


Are you going to share with the class?
GreasenUSA
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$30,000 Millionaire said:

GreasenUSA said:

I'm backtesting a strategy on SPY, cooking in the crockpot, and heading to a brewery in a few hours.


Are you going to share with the class?
Well, I'm only making about 6 servings, and it's my meal prep for the week... but sure. First come, first serve!
SF2004
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Heineken-Ashi said:

There are never certainties when trading. No charting can perfectly predict behavior of an entire market, whether manipulated by makers, influenced by algorithms, or dangling between retail bulls fighting against retail bears.

The best you can do is find something you trust and stick to it. And there's no one answer.

And to your specific issue, there's multiple strategies that do wait for confirmation of reversal and can limit losses if incorrect. Beer candles, also known as Heiden-Ashi candles, if properly used, are a phenomenal way to make sure you only enter after a reversal or after a period of indecision. This way, though you might not bottom tick, you stand a great chance of catching the trend. This is because the nature of the candle is an average of the period. It starts at the middle of the body of the last candle. So if it is pointing up with no lower wick, you are in an uptrend.

It won't make you rich to merely trade using these candles. But it will tell you when the trend are starting and give you decent warning that they have ended. It is up to you to put on protection through stops and hedges if a trend that you have entered does fail quickly.

What makes people really good is when they can line up 3-4 indicators that they FULLY understand. One might signal entry. One might signal overbought / oversold. One might signal institutional interest. One might signal potential of reversal. There's lots. Many many here will give insight and do regularly as to one's they trust.

Long story short, you cant be perfect. But you can employ sound and consistent strategies to give yourself the best chance. And many here are picking up on these through learning from others. It's amazing to see it work. The most successful traders are closer to a mile deep and inch wide than vice versa. The biggest obstruction, and I speak for experience, is attempting to become a jack of all trades.very few even have the time for that, even if they do have the intellectual capability.
Thanks for the great answer!

Most people do not talk about trades that go bad, they just quietly ignore them while pump other trades.

$30k and FJ on here are pretty open about their trades and results. Which is why I am more likely to follow them.

$30k has posted plenty of losses and trades he paper handed because he just didn't like the action.
techno-ag
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GreasenUSA said:

$30,000 Millionaire said:

GreasenUSA said:

I'm backtesting a strategy on SPY, cooking in the crockpot, and heading to a brewery in a few hours.


Are you going to share with the class?
Well, I'm only making about 6 servings, and it's my meal prep for the week... but sure. First come, first serve!
Username checks out?
FJ43
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Heineken-Ashi said:



The best you can do is find something you trust and stick to it.

Long story short, you cant be perfect. But you can employ sound and consistent strategies to give yourself the best chance.


The most successful traders are closer to a mile deep and inch wide than vice versa.


This this and this
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

FJ43
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ProgN said:

Closing the market for President's day is the dumbest f'ing thing ever with respect to holidays. This just sucks!

Rant over


Keep going Prog. I was all set to drive trade my way to Destin and totally forgot it was a holiday and closed markets.

Was a loooong drive.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

Charismatic Megafauna
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Boy Named Sue said:

This is the 1-minute chart for the last hour on Friday. The channel between the lines was money. Reading up a little afterward, I guess it's called a "3-drive pattern"? How common is it to see this pattern?

I just bought ATM calls at the bottom line and sold as soon as I saw the first red volume bar pop up. All were just market orders, so they'd be fast.

When it broke above the top line I went in again, and that ended up being the most profitable trade of the day.

Does anybody else use the 1-minute to actively trade like that? This may be my new approach, because trying to set stops and profit exits so I can still work has been cumbersome and I don't end up getting any work done anyway. But with this approach, I had a fun and profitable little 45-60 minute run.


This is my favorite and most profitable strategy. The hardest thing about it is to size appropriately, if anything size lower with each successful trade, because when it breaks it breaks fast. And when the channel does fail, forget about it, delete those lines and stop trying to trade them because it's dead. That's what i think I've learned anyway
Dan Scott
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XFL launched for 3rd time this past weekend.

2001 market crash
2020 market crash
2023???
BaylorSpineGuy
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Love it. Good call. It's a sign of the top haha.
FJ43
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Dan Scott said:

XFL launched for 3rd time this past weekend.

2001 market crash
2020 market crash
2023???
I should have read that closer. Here I am charting XLF and trying to see what you're seeing.

Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

deadbq03
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Dan Scott said:

XFL launched for 3rd time this past weekend.

2001 market crash
2020 market crash
2023???
He Hate Me
FJ43
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One for y'all to keep an eye on.

$FIGS

Could see it potentially move to 11.20s

Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

irish pete ag06
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FJ43
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irish pete ag06 said:


I want to see this happen and VIX crush down into the mid to low 18s or even 17s. I will be a buyer on calls out 45-60 days as a trade.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

ProgN
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FJ43 said:

Dan Scott said:

XFL launched for 3rd time this past weekend.

2001 market crash
2020 market crash
2023???
I should have read that closer. Here I am charting XLF and trying to see what you're seeing.




$30,000 Millionaire
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4090 on es is the key level for tomorrow.
FJ43
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$30,000 Millionaire
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Could be a snoozer today if 4050 holds.
Charismatic Megafauna
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A 30k narrated trading day!? Let's do this!
$30,000 Millionaire
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Charismatic Megafauna said:

A 30k narrated trading day!? Let's do this!


Nothing to narrate yet and I won't have time beyond the IB.

My expectation today is small moves around 4050 that could be capped by 4090 if we even get close.
Charismatic Megafauna
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$30,000 Millionaire said:

Charismatic Megafauna said:

A 30k narrated trading day!? Let's do this!


I won't have time beyond the IB.


(Sad noises)

J/k appreciate any and everything you toss our way
$30,000 Millionaire
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Fed yammering is tomorrow and days after 3 day weekends can be slow.
$30,000 Millionaire
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Big box stores taking a beating. Energy flat.
$30,000 Millionaire
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I expected more effort from the bears so far.
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