Tomorrow should actually have some movement with Powell speaking at 11:40. Market didn't really do anything today so interested to how things go tomorrow. With the bull market that we've had the last couple of weeks wouldn't surprise me to see us go up with no bad news from Powell. However, he could definitely say the wrong thing and we might start testing that $400 level.
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Last: 4 hrs ago by EliteZags
My bet Powell goes Jackson Hole tomorrow.
M4 Benelli said:BaylorSpineGuy said:
Where's Farmer these days? Perhaps he can comment on CHK and some other energy stocks currently hovering near lower support levels….
Every hour I hit refresh for a Farmer post that has yet to Xome...
Absolutely Jackson Hole round 2 tomorrow. They need to get this all over with before the 2024 election. Even though the fed seems to be acting in earnest regarding in inflation, remember they play the political game.
Possible, but completely different forum. Jackson Hole was yell at camera for a couple of mins, this is a discussion at Economic Club. Messaging with probably be similar to Bostic today is my guess.Dan Scott said:
My bet Powell goes Jackson Hole tomorrow.
Maybe it's just me but I don't think there is extreme greed.
Look, they can't go over 5.5% for long if at all. The market knows that. Doesn't matter how fussy J Pow is.
The machines may look for a reason to sell. The dip could get bought.
Remember everyone is thinking like you guys and loading puts.
Look, they can't go over 5.5% for long if at all. The market knows that. Doesn't matter how fussy J Pow is.
The machines may look for a reason to sell. The dip could get bought.
Remember everyone is thinking like you guys and loading puts.
irish pete ag06 said:So you have prompted me to look into these beer candles. I've been researching and using them on a split screen with regular candles.Heineken-Ashi said:
Sold some positions with the SPX beer candle reversal this morning lining up with daily candle overbought signals. Feel like I stole something.
I've also been trying to trade trends based on EMAs, so I must say. I am a fan of the beer candles.
Welcome to the pub!
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
$30,000 Millionaire said:
Maybe it's just me but I don't think there is extreme greed.
Look, they can't go over 5.5% for long if at all. The market knows that. Doesn't matter how fussy J Pow is.
The machines may look for a reason to sell. The dip could get bought.
Remember everyone is thinking like you guys and loading puts.
I mean the Nasdaq had a 20% run up in 19 days. If nothing else it's due for some chop / pullback, just not sure longer term
Right...$30,000 Millionaire said:
Maybe it's just me but I don't think there is extreme greed.
Look, they can't go over 5.5% for long if at all. The market knows that. Doesn't matter how fussy J Pow is.
The machines may look for a reason to sell. The dip could get bought.
Remember everyone is thinking like you guys and loading puts.
The problem that is going to potentially cause another leg down is the labor market is going to make wages stay high... and likely make inflation sticky. I have a feeling it's not gonna be the rates that cause it but an unexpected hot print on CPI.
Hell that looks like a bull flag to me.
these all look bad. but J Pow can change it with his magic words.
$290 would be a great spot to go long. 
mean reversion would be healthy, but this could squeeze to 330 if people are as short as I think they are.
I talk often with a famous fin Twitter that is a former Goldman trader. He has been telling me that mutual funds have cash on the sidelines that must be deployed. MF cash would be insanely bullish.
I got assigned on OXY at net $65 last week on some new shares. I am going to sell 70s out to August when this bounces to 63 area.
I bet tomorrows morning session is a snoozer before J Pow talks. Let's see.
Yep… just chop around with fake wicks making a doji I bet
Smarter to probably wait until after the speech. Don't forget gap at 145
What do you think the chances are of a .50 pint hike?
Philip J Fry said:
What do you think the chances are of a .50 pint hike?
What would be the basis for it? The jobs report on Friday?
Philip J Fry said:
What do you think the chances are of a .50 pint hike?
Fed watch tool says 10%
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
just trying to think about it logically, if you believe 0.25 is getting the desired effect, why would you do more? If you really want to rip the band aid, set rates to 8% for 6 months and let a ton of people get fired.
That's been my thought. At that point they should have just gone there to begin with and the process would have taken 6 months tops to flush everything out Vs 2 years
Do you think it's having JPs desired effect? Jobs are still strong. GDP came in hot.
$30,000 Millionaire said:
I talk often with a famous fin Twitter that is a former Goldman trader. He has been telling me that mutual funds have cash on the sidelines that must be deployed. MF cash would be insanely bullish.
Will Meade?
I think a sudden rip like that would have caused even more money printing due to It's been my belief the Fed knows the increase in money printing is a large contributing factor and have been trying to slowly approach this situation so as not to cause any more printing from their actions.
odds that Best Buy (down -40.3% right now) is going to declare bankruptcy?
does that mean store closings- or just a restructuring of the debt to preferred bond holders?
does that mean store closings- or just a restructuring of the debt to preferred bond holders?
LMCane said:
odds that Best Buy (down -40.3% right now) is going to declare bankruptcy?
does that mean store closings- or just a restructuring of the debt to preferred bond holders?
I think you mean Bed Bath and Beyond $BBBY
Best Buy is $BBY
Probably both. Creditors will insist on closing unprofitable stores
They won't do that. There is too much risk of "breaking something" like a Lehman or AIG like 08. I would have thought that rates at these levels would have already done something like this, but I guess having trillions of recently printed money floating around has buffered it.Quote:
That's been my thought. At that point they should have just gone there to begin with and the process would have taken 6 months tops to flush everything out Vs 2 years
IV too high to trade SPX.
$20 in premium for at the money
It seems traders really are waiting for Powell this morning. I find it hard to believe he's going to say anything markedly different from last week, but we will see.
GreasenUSA said:
It seems traders really are waiting for Powell this morning. I find it hard to believe he's going to say anything markedly different from last week, but we will see.
I agree. I'm waiting too
BOIL hasn't had two consecutive green days since mid-December. Might change that today.
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