Bonfire1996 said:

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If CPI print is low, it gives further cover for the FED to declare "uncle" in February or March. I still think we have some flash lows because earnings are likely to disappoint with bad margins and slow growth. However, the message coming out of the FED reactions will be that of "soft landing achieved" which is going to light a fire under the bulls.

Bottom line: if CPI print is lower than expected, man, some mid to late Fall lottos could look pretty effing tasty.

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March would be the earliest, and that's still massively hopeful fantasy based on actual FED communication. This is where the media keeps going and they keep being wrong.

The FED can use GAAP supported balance sheet trickery to stay in a deep hole as long as they need. That hole actually shows as an asset in their sheet. This is why they're not worried about interest payments on high rates. They know they will "eventually" get out of the hole. They aren't taking any chance of pulling a Voelkner. How many times do they have to tell you this? Rates are going above 5% and they are staying there. This means the FED is perfectly fine with deteriorating growth and earnings, still committed to bringing down prices on over inflated industries like housing, and is fine with sustained lower economic performance. Why? Because if any other reality comes from their actions, it either creates a worse problem than the one we are trying to climb out of or it immediately FULLY corrects the problem.. a problem they helped create.

So you choose. You can have immediate crash and real recovery that doesn't include the FED pumping money and creating a fake economy with fake dollars.. crash would be rather quick with the recovery long and hard, a slow plodding March down to bottom over many years, or reversal back up and additional kick of the can down the road (this route is suicide for the FED).

The FED is choosing the second option. And it's going to slowly deteriorate prosperity until we get used to lower standards. The world of zero rates and free money is over.

True Story $SPY pic.twitter.com/ImVpsegoDN

— TrendSpider (@TrendSpider) January 7, 2023

I agree with 30K. The pivot will be them stopping the rate hikes at 5%. There will be no all clear until the yield curve un-inverts and the following recession is well underway. The yield curve in-inverts because of a very quick drop in fed funds. That's what history has always told us.

At what point do people start calling what we have been in for over 6 months a recession?

When the layoffs begin.

Philip J Fry said:

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When the layoffs begin.

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So… months ago?

Exactly… I feel like people haven't been paying attention. We've been in one for half a year. Unless you change the definition of a recession. Then technically we have never had a recession.

Maybe this economy doesn't identify as a recession.

irish pete ag06 said:

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Maybe this economy doesn't identify as a recession.

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It can be anything it wants with a media as lap dogs for progressive socialists.

Y'all go listen to Kenny Rogers 'The Gambler'.

Think trading. That your song.

Interesting that all of those with 40%+ expected returns are in the natural gas business.

10 more years of this?!

TubTub said:

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If this is a recession, I would gladly take 10 more years of this. Will just keep buying treasuries until stock becomes more reasonably priced.

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