Merry Christmas on page 5900 of this thread.
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Red Pear Luke (BCS)
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Merry Christmas - ya wealthy animals!
YaketyYak said:Yeah, I was trading BOIL/KOLD this summer when NG was peaking above $9 and again in October/November around it's current levels anticipating a rail strike bringing coal to a standstill alongside a Freeport reopen.FTAG 2000 said:Natural gas futures have come down to test a year long support / trend line in the $5.00 area.YaketyYak said:
Does BOIL track UK Natural gas futures? They are -10% today.
I may have to reenter soon, but concerned about NG supply outpacing demand first half of 2023 and seeing calls for $3 NG by the second half gives me pause.
It's a fun but volatile one!
Cheers
This comment over on Seeking Alpha confirms some of my suspicions about the holidays and BOIL/KOLD.
Quote:
Many of the comments here show a fundamental misunderstanding of natgas markets, and the broader commodity trading space in general. I work as a trading and supply sme for a supermajor and will tell you, most of us trade vol; and, while vols are up, we are also taking profit and closing positions from this year on hedging programs. This forced selling drove down the market, and the etf's disconnected so drastically from underlying gas contracts (asset npv) b/c of investor sentiment alone. More positions come on the books in early jan. For now, traders are closing positions pre-holiday ahead of 12/28 nymex roll-off and holidays, when there is historically light volume. If you're one of these people still assuming the Biden admin is driving gas markets, you need a better education in supply/demand econmics. They have no ability to do that in deregulated markets. For now, expect downside pressure into january until you see long term forecasts change colder. Next week you'll get a 230-250 draw but not before seeing the $4.95 floor get tested. Stay tuned
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3919831-us-natural-gas-inventory-fall-smaller-than-expected
TL/DR: prices stay suppressed until January.
Courtesy of ChatGPT:
Sure! Here is a short note you can use to wish the riverboat gamblers on TexAgs a merry Christmas:
Dear fellow riverboat gamblers,
I hope this Christmas brings you joy and happiness. May the holiday season be a time for relaxation, spending time with loved ones, and making memories.
Merry Christmas to all of you, and here's to a prosperous and successful new year.
Sincerely,
30K
Sure! Here is a short note you can use to wish the riverboat gamblers on TexAgs a merry Christmas:
Dear fellow riverboat gamblers,
I hope this Christmas brings you joy and happiness. May the holiday season be a time for relaxation, spending time with loved ones, and making memories.
Merry Christmas to all of you, and here's to a prosperous and successful new year.
Sincerely,
30K
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
techno-ag said:YaketyYak said:Yeah, I was trading BOIL/KOLD this summer when NG was peaking above $9 and again in October/November around it's current levels anticipating a rail strike bringing coal to a standstill alongside a Freeport reopen.FTAG 2000 said:Natural gas futures have come down to test a year long support / trend line in the $5.00 area.YaketyYak said:
Does BOIL track UK Natural gas futures? They are -10% today.
I may have to reenter soon, but concerned about NG supply outpacing demand first half of 2023 and seeing calls for $3 NG by the second half gives me pause.
It's a fun but volatile one!
Cheers
This comment over on Seeking Alpha confirms some of my suspicions about the holidays and BOIL/KOLD.Quote:
Many of the comments here show a fundamental misunderstanding of natgas markets, and the broader commodity trading space in general. I work as a trading and supply sme for a supermajor and will tell you, most of us trade vol; and, while vols are up, we are also taking profit and closing positions from this year on hedging programs. This forced selling drove down the market, and the etf's disconnected so drastically from underlying gas contracts (asset npv) b/c of investor sentiment alone. More positions come on the books in early jan. For now, traders are closing positions pre-holiday ahead of 12/28 nymex roll-off and holidays, when there is historically light volume. If you're one of these people still assuming the Biden admin is driving gas markets, you need a better education in supply/demand econmics. They have no ability to do that in deregulated markets. For now, expect downside pressure into january until you see long term forecasts change colder. Next week you'll get a 230-250 draw but not before seeing the $4.95 floor get tested. Stay tuned
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3919831-us-natural-gas-inventory-fall-smaller-than-expected
TL/DR: prices stay suppressed until January.
Aye, guess I am going long on my BOIL position. Which is fine mostly. It's a small position and was just fun money. And if we do actually test that low of a bottom, I know I am going to be tempted to get more…
I've gotten more. I have a 3-4 week outlook. It could stay in the 20s for months, but somehow I don't think I'll have to wait that long.
TRADING VOL IN THE COMING WINTER WONDERLAND
— Cem Karsan 🥐 (@jam_croissant) December 25, 2022
Storm sirens🚨 ring, R U listening?
In the gutter, cheap equity skew is a-glistening!
A beautiful sight.
We're lucky🍀 tonight.
Trading vol in a coming winter wonderland.
Gone away is the call squeeze…
Next up comes the put squeeze! pic.twitter.com/JHuEcGESD8
Here's one person's insight. Sounds like put buyers may get rewarded this time!
I averaged down on BOIL to $27, but I'm not too worried. Even if it hasn't hit bottom it has to hit the 30s at some point in January I'd guess.
Merry Christmas, all. I haven't been around much the last year due to a lot of complicated personal things, but I still check in from time to time. Should have been paying a bit closer attention to some things, but my account isn't sitting on zero, so I'm happy for that I guess.
May we all strike it rich in 2023, because **** 2022...
May we all strike it rich in 2023, because **** 2022...
Not to divert this train….but was doing some online reading tonight, and I found we can trace my family history back nearly 1000 years, all the way back to Earl Tostig, the brother of King Harold, who was eventually defeated by the Norman William the Conqueror at the Battle of Hastings (1066).
Thought that was pretty cool. Our family last name is same as a small town in Lancashire, England.
Anyway…sorry for diverting the thread, but wanted to share that.
Thought that was pretty cool. Our family last name is same as a small town in Lancashire, England.
Anyway…sorry for diverting the thread, but wanted to share that.
Charismatic Megafauna
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Aw hell, then your destiny has already been cast. Now you are definitely riding with me to valhalla!
Charismatic Megafauna said:
Aw hell, then your destiny has already been cast. Now you are definitely riding with me to valhalla!
Let's ride! My favorite history is probably of the Normans! Lars Brownworth does a splendid job of telling their short, but lively history. A free and well worth it podcast if you're into history. Told expertly. It's called Norman Centiries and is free on AAPL podcasts.
Very interesting. According to family tradition, I have an ancestor that was on the other side in the Battle of Hastings. "Guinebond Ballou, a Marshal in the Army of William the Conqueror and fought in the Battle of Hastings in 1066."BaylorSpineGuy said:
Not to divert this train….but was doing some online reading tonight, and I found we can trace my family history back nearly 1000 years, all the way back to Earl Tostig, the brother of King Harold, who was eventually defeated by the Norman William the Conqueror at the Battle of Hastings (1066).
Thought that was pretty cool. Our family last name is same as a small town in Lancashire, England.
Anyway…sorry for diverting the thread, but wanted to share that.
spud1910 said:Very interesting. According to family tradition, I have an ancestor that was on the other side in the Battle of Hastings. "Guinebond Ballou, a Marshal in the Army of William the Conqueror and fought in the Battle of Hastings in 1066."BaylorSpineGuy said:
Not to divert this train….but was doing some online reading tonight, and I found we can trace my family history back nearly 1000 years, all the way back to Earl Tostig, the brother of King Harold, who was eventually defeated by the Norman William the Conqueror at the Battle of Hastings (1066).
Thought that was pretty cool. Our family last name is same as a small town in Lancashire, England.
Anyway…sorry for diverting the thread, but wanted to share that.
That's fantastic! Beautiful history. Would rather be on the winning side of history though lol.
The Sicilians were just a few small pieces away from having all of Europe! World would've been forever different.
Yeah, things could have been very different. I read a little this summer about that time(1066: The Year of the Conquest). Any recommendations on books to read?
spud1910 said:
Yeah, things could have been very different. I read a little this summer about that time(1066: The Year of the Conquest). Any recommendations on books to read?
Norman Centuries. Apple podcast. You won't find anything better or more concise about the Normans. Each episode 15-25 minutes. You'll thank me after you listen. We can glean so much from history. It often repeats itself!
Pulled those up after your first mention. Driving to Destin tomorrow, so if I can convince the wife will get started.BaylorSpineGuy said:spud1910 said:
Yeah, things could have been very different. I read a little this summer about that time(1066: The Year of the Conquest). Any recommendations on books to read?
Norman Centuries. Apple podcast. You won't find anything better or more concise about the Normans. Each episode 15-25 minutes. You'll thank me after you listen. We can glean so much from history. It often repeats itself!
spud1910 said:Pulled those up after your first mention. Driving to Destin tomorrow, so if I can convince the wife will get started.BaylorSpineGuy said:spud1910 said:
Yeah, things could have been very different. I read a little this summer about that time(1066: The Year of the Conquest). Any recommendations on books to read?
Norman Centuries. Apple podcast. You won't find anything better or more concise about the Normans. Each episode 15-25 minutes. You'll thank me after you listen. We can glean so much from history. It often repeats itself!
Safe travels and let me know how u like it.
BaylorSpineGuy said:
Not to divert this train….but was doing some online reading tonight, and I found we can trace my family history back nearly 1000 years, all the way back to Earl Tostig, the brother of King Harold, who was eventually defeated by the Norman William the Conqueror at the Battle of Hastings (1066).
Thought that was pretty cool. Our family last name is same as a small town in Lancashire, England.
Anyway…sorry for diverting the thread, but wanted to share that.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
Hmmmm,......Quote:
Latest estimate: 3.7 percent December 23, 2022
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2022 is 3.7 percent on December 23, up from 2.7 percent on December 20. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the National Association of Realtors, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 3.4 percent and -0.2 percent, respectively, to 3.6 percent and 3.8 percent, respectively.
Looks like China is re-opening, surging cases or not. If they get going again, think we could see a bit of an energy bump and overall commodity demand increase.
More:
— THE SHORT BEAR (@TheShortBear) December 26, 2022
China to End Covid-Quarantine Measures From Jan. 8 Despite Surging Cases https://t.co/wYO3pHIwRq
Montezuma is taking revenge upon me. May take this week off too.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Sorry to hear this. If you go back to Mexico or to a country that has a suspect water supply - white wine everything. Have white wine when bottled water is not available. It's the best defense.$30,000 Millionaire said:
Montezuma is taking revenge upon me. May take this week off too.
I agree. I even brush my teeth with bottled water. Not sure what got me.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Looks like we may be in a bit of a short squeeze. Ron Walker called it again lol.
Prepare to load short in the mid 3900 range. That's my plan at least. Nonidea how long we will retest the waters in the 390s but I doubt it will be for near the amt of time we did before (like 5 wks in November/early December).
Prepare to load short in the mid 3900 range. That's my plan at least. Nonidea how long we will retest the waters in the 390s but I doubt it will be for near the amt of time we did before (like 5 wks in November/early December).
Counterpoint:
I just listened to Jeff Currie's bullish oil talk for 2023.
— Alexander Stahel 🇺🇦 (@BurggrabenH) December 24, 2022
Below is the pitch and the real data!
Consider it a X-mas gift to my followers. Merry Christmas to you all.
1/n @UrbanKaoboy @simon_ree pic.twitter.com/uc7bsLYYCX
Isn't BOIL a levered ETF that is almost certain to lose value in the long run due to decay?
Ice is made with local water and often overlooked by tourists. So, a drink with ice for example, may lead to trouble.$30,000 Millionaire said:
I agree. I even brush my teeth with bottled water. Not sure what got me.
Correct. As discussed, BOIL is not the instrument for buying and holding. And certainly not for averaging down if you mistimed your original entry.DubFalls said:
Isn't BOIL a levered ETF that is almost certain to lose value in the long run due to decay?
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techno-ag said:Ice is made with local water and often overlooked by tourists. So, a drink with ice for example, may lead to trouble.$30,000 Millionaire said:
I agree. I even brush my teeth with bottled water. Not sure what got me.
Also strawberries, salad, etc is washed with disgusting third world water, so don't eat anything that's not cooked orv that you didn't open the package to. Or you can not act like a gringo and just enjoy the culture, surrendering yourself to the fact that there's a chance you'll end up with the squirts or a parasite but either way it'll be nice to come home a couple pounds lighter
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BaylorSpineGuy said:
Looks like we may be in a bit of a short squeeze. Ron Walker called it again lol.
Prepare to load short in the mid 3900 range. That's my plan at least. Nonidea how long we will retest the waters in the 390s but I doubt it will be for near the amt of time we did before (like 5 wks in November/early December).
Man i was thinking the same thing. Gdp up, china opening, roses and unicorn farts in the headlines could draw everybody in before the next leg down.
Sorry to hear this man. Hope you get to feeling better soon.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
In summary: if you go to Mexico, the only thing safe to drink is liquor that is at least 40% by volume. Oh the irony…
BaylorSpineGuy said:
In summary: if you go to Mexico, the only thing safe to drink is liquor that is at least 40% by volume. Oh the irony…
"I'm sorry I was ****faced in Cozumel for a solid week honey but my doctor was adamant that I remember my health. I did it for us and it was doctor's orders"
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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<squeaky sound of a rusty valve handle turning to close>
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