You fix energy by fixing supply. Not decreasing demand.
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Last: 10 min ago by Cru
Charismatic Megafauna
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AG
Since I'm slow a third possibility just occurred to me... the lower trendline back to january hasn't been as clean as the upper, and could even be construed as flattening. So we chop through dec/jan, cool off rsi then start grinding up. Even if it plays out i still think we hit up the 360s again (which allows the 10/13 bottom to hold)
That is not an option for the current administration. The new EPA and BLM rules are absurd. In fact, the preamble to the NSPS explicitly states it will have a significant adverse impact on US oil & gas. Never seen an agency actually write something so blunt.
Forgot to add that they are seeing Q3 potential rate cut... likely after visiting 3200irish pete ag06 said:
Just throwing out the data point. Lunch with an investment company rep. Their dude is thinking 3200 in 2023.
Don't shoot the messenger, just figured if I such at bringing trades to this place, at least I can bring this insight.
Charismatic Megafauna said:
Since I'm slow a third possibility just occurred to me... the lower trendline back to january hasn't been as clean as the upper, and could even be construed as flattening. So we chop through dec/jan, cool off rsi then start grinding up. Even if it plays out i still think we hit up the 360s again (which allows the 10/13 bottom to hold)
I'll reiterate a slightly different take than what I've alluded to before. Speculation is rampant in this market. Nearly 50% of traded options are 0DTE. Remember when there was only a monthly expiration and nothing else? Yeah, me neither.
Much like the 1920s and in other periods of rampant speculation, the Fed will raise rates to crush speculation. As Farmer once mentioned, one thing the Fed hasn't done is increase the borrowing rate for margin. That would send a clear message but this is a resilient economy, and even the collapse of a trillion dollar asset class (crypto) hasn't been able to slow the positive momentum yet. More to come….
Let me be clear….of course the stated goals of maximum employment and price stability will remain paramount, but this sorta goes hand in hand with the speculation stuff. Feds/government pumped a$$ loads of money into the economy and it dumped into the markets and fueled equity prices. This is part of the unwinding.
Charismatic Megafauna
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BaylorSpineGuy said:
Speculation is rampant in this market. Nearly 50% of traded options are 0DTE. Remember when there was only a monthly expiration and nothing else? Yeah, me neither.
Much like the 1920s and in other periods of rampant speculation, the Fed will raise rates to crush speculation.
That's terrifying
BSG bringing the heat today. You go man!
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
FJ43 said:
BSG bringing the heat today. You go man!
Hahaha…..I'm not saying there isn't money to be made going long, but it just be strategic! Blind long will get you wrecked. I suspect Tom Lee will be crying uncle in 3-6 months.
That last breath of hope going out that is speculation has not come yet. Cautious about any long term bullish position until then.
Gundlach, the bond king, is still super bullish on bonds and projects a 2% 10 yr treasury within 5 years (I suspect sooner), and that will nearly double my 401K!
yeah what FJ said! Your posts have gone from, "****, I bought bitcoin at 60k and sold it at 50k"...to this above! If only my brain would absorb this knowledge that fast!BaylorSpineGuy said:Charismatic Megafauna said:
Since I'm slow a third possibility just occurred to me... the lower trendline back to january hasn't been as clean as the upper, and could even be construed as flattening. So we chop through dec/jan, cool off rsi then start grinding up. Even if it plays out i still think we hit up the 360s again (which allows the 10/13 bottom to hold)
I'll reiterate a slightly different take than what I've alluded to before. Speculation is rampant in this market. Nearly 50% of traded options are 0DTE. Remember when there was only a monthly expiration and nothing else? Yeah, me neither.
Much like the 1920s and in other periods of rampant speculation, the Fed will raise rates to crush speculation. As Farmer once mentioned, one thing the Fed hasn't done is increase the borrowing rate for margin. That would send a clear message but this is a resilient economy, and even the collapse of a trillion dollar asset class (crypto) hasn't been able to slow the positive momentum yet. More to come….
Let me be clear….of course the stated goals of maximum employment and price stability will remain paramount, but this sorta goes hand in hand with the speculation stuff. Feds/government pumped a$$ loads of money into the economy and it dumped into the markets and fueled equity prices. This is part of the unwinding.
So basically full port TYD and hold all til a double? lol.
Nice trading doc! 3 wins on a tough day like today is nice. Believe Vix expires next week.
seems highly likely, especially given the seasonal weakness + inflation + rate hikes = triple whammy for the markets.irish pete ag06 said:Forgot to add that they are seeing Q3 potential rate cut... likely after visiting 3200irish pete ag06 said:
Just throwing out the data point. Lunch with an investment company rep. Their dude is thinking 3200 in 2023.
Don't shoot the messenger, just figured if I such at bringing trades to this place, at least I can bring this insight.
That would be a more than doubling of something like SQQQ.
Tom Lee has been dead wrong all year, drives me nuts that CNBC (mostly Wapner) keeps bringing him on.
With the updated dot plots there is a clear divergence between where the Fed thinks inflation and rates go next year versus where the market thinks they go. Watched some after the meeting and was surprised by how many CNBC guests, many that I respect, now believe that the market is correct and that the Fed will eventually come around.
With the updated dot plots there is a clear divergence between where the Fed thinks inflation and rates go next year versus where the market thinks they go. Watched some after the meeting and was surprised by how many CNBC guests, many that I respect, now believe that the market is correct and that the Fed will eventually come around.
Look where BOIL petered out the other day
/NG pretty well right at MT as well
/NG pretty well right at MT as well
Charismatic Megafauna
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Looks like we revisit that 392 buy zone again this morning. But will it hold?
maybe this has something to do with the post above:irish pete ag06 said:Forgot to add that they are seeing Q3 potential rate cut... likely after visiting 3200irish pete ag06 said:
Just throwing out the data point. Lunch with an investment company rep. Their dude is thinking 3200 in 2023.
Don't shoot the messenger, just figured if I such at bringing trades to this place, at least I can bring this insight.
Stock futures were sharply lower Thursday after retail sales for November fell more than expected, raising fears that the Federal Reserve's relentless interest rate hikes are tipping the economy into a recession.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 402 points, or 1.17%. S&P 500 futures dropped 1.4%, and Nasdaq 100 futures lost 1.7%.
Is the "Santa Rally" a joke where it's not really a rally but everything is red, so, Santa?
Jobless claims tumble to multi month low. Not good. Every week this happens emboldens the FED
I'm bearish unless we cross 4030 on ES. That does not mean short from here.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Remember my previous post a couple weeks ago about how the Fed follows the market? And I gave you specific examples over a 5-year period of the 10-year treasury making moves and the Fed ALWAYS following.
The Fed is now trying to lead the market. They keep saying they are going to 5+ and will stay there. Nobody ever asks how we will service our debt while up there for that long, but they have never wavered, despite media and markets begging them to come back down.
The last time the Fed tried to lead the market was after COVID when they told us for over a year that inflation was transitory. The market had already begun its climb and the gap between the two was wild. The Fed wanted so badly to stay down there for reasons that are probably more nefarious than I can explain at the moment. It requires a significant understanding of why the FED was created and what their actual purpose is. But despite their "on the surface" idiocy about inflation that any blind American could see through, they had to eventually give in and start raising rates.
What good is an unelected board in charge of a centrally planned economy if said board isn't at least somewhat masquerading as "trying"?
The Fed doesn't lead because it doesn't want to lead. It's job is to cover up the mistakes made by the public sector and banking industry and to push their risk, losses, and misfortunes on to the private middle class tax payer.
So why are they trying to lead now? Because it's working. If they pivot to where the market wants, the economy will attempt to roar up and the mistakes that led to massive bubbles will get worse until they pop. And if they pop, the entities that created the crisis will actually get blamed and we will likely get reforms. But if they can "manage" a "soft" (lol) landing by slowly closing their fist over the taxpayers neck over a 3-4 year period, without the system requiring a change or reboot, they can keep their jobs, keep their wealth, and use the pain felt by Americans as an opportunity to acquire even more assets cheaply to create future wealth.
Don't ever be fooled. If they were working in your best interests, they would have never lied about transitory inflation. They would have never supported bail outs in the Great Recession. And they would listen to the market when it speaks.
Instead, they ignore the market in an attempt to gaslight you.
The Fed is now trying to lead the market. They keep saying they are going to 5+ and will stay there. Nobody ever asks how we will service our debt while up there for that long, but they have never wavered, despite media and markets begging them to come back down.
The last time the Fed tried to lead the market was after COVID when they told us for over a year that inflation was transitory. The market had already begun its climb and the gap between the two was wild. The Fed wanted so badly to stay down there for reasons that are probably more nefarious than I can explain at the moment. It requires a significant understanding of why the FED was created and what their actual purpose is. But despite their "on the surface" idiocy about inflation that any blind American could see through, they had to eventually give in and start raising rates.
What good is an unelected board in charge of a centrally planned economy if said board isn't at least somewhat masquerading as "trying"?
The Fed doesn't lead because it doesn't want to lead. It's job is to cover up the mistakes made by the public sector and banking industry and to push their risk, losses, and misfortunes on to the private middle class tax payer.
So why are they trying to lead now? Because it's working. If they pivot to where the market wants, the economy will attempt to roar up and the mistakes that led to massive bubbles will get worse until they pop. And if they pop, the entities that created the crisis will actually get blamed and we will likely get reforms. But if they can "manage" a "soft" (lol) landing by slowly closing their fist over the taxpayers neck over a 3-4 year period, without the system requiring a change or reboot, they can keep their jobs, keep their wealth, and use the pain felt by Americans as an opportunity to acquire even more assets cheaply to create future wealth.
Don't ever be fooled. If they were working in your best interests, they would have never lied about transitory inflation. They would have never supported bail outs in the Great Recession. And they would listen to the market when it speaks.
Instead, they ignore the market in an attempt to gaslight you.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
Heineken-Ashi said:
Remember my previous post a couple weeks ago about how the Fed follows the market? And I gave you specific examples over a 5-year period of the 10-year treasury making moves and the Fed ALWAYS following.
The Fed is now trying to lead the market. They keep saying they are going to 5+ and will stay there. Nobody ever asks how we will service our debt while up there for that long, but they have never wavered, despite media and markets begging them to come back down.
The last time the Fed tried to lead the market was after COVID when they told us for over a year that inflation was transitory. The market had already begun its climb and the gap between the two was wild. The Fed wanted so badly to stay down there for reasons that are probably more nefarious than I can explain at the moment. It requires a significant understanding of why the FED was created and what their actual purpose is. But despite their "on the surface" idiocy about inflation that any blind American could see through, they had to eventually give in and start raising rates.
What good is an unelected board in charge of a centrally planned economy if said board isn't at least somewhat masquerading as "trying"?
The Fed doesn't lead because it doesn't want to lead. It's job is to cover up the mistakes made by the public sector and banking industry and to push their risk, losses, and misfortunes on to the private middle class tax payer.
So why are they trying to lead now? Because it's working. If they pivot to where the market wants, the economy will attempt to roar up and the mistakes that led to massive bubbles will get worse until they pop. And if they pop, the entities that created the crisis will actually get blamed and we will likely get reforms. But if they can "manage" a "soft" (lol) landing by slowly closing their fist over the taxpayers neck over a 3-4 year period, without the system requiring a change or reboot, they can keep their jobs, keep their wealth, and use the pain felt by Americans as an opportunity to acquire even more assets cheaply to create future wealth.
Don't ever be fooled. If they were working in your best interests, they would have never lied about transitory inflation. They would have never supported bail outs in the Great Recession. And they would listen to the market when it speaks.
Instead, they ignore the market in an attempt to gaslight you.
Ummmmmmmmm.
Sir...this is a Wendy's.
Made $450 in about 4 min. If I had held, I'd be up almost $1000 but got my little bit and got out. May dip my toes in again later.
irish pete ag06 said:Forgot to add that they are seeing Q3 potential rate cut... likely after visiting 3200irish pete ag06 said:
Just throwing out the data point. Lunch with an investment company rep. Their dude is thinking 3200 in 2023.
Don't shoot the messenger, just figured if I such at bringing trades to this place, at least I can bring this insight.
3200 you say ? I'll fire up the the Yugo for that ! Until then y'all rich Ags have a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!!
great stuff as always. So a slow bleed 3 to 4 year recession, yikes.
BaylorSpineGuy said:
Made $450 in about 4 min. If I had held, I'd be up almost $1000 but got my little bit and got out. May dip my toes in again later.
All I can say is god bless Ron Walker
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Max pain at 3925, so be careful getting into any short options here. Potential Theta crush incoming.
Well BOIL was looking good and then went off a cliff...
BOIL
1 mil buy at 8:43 central,
1 mil buy at 8:43 central,
Philip J Fry said:BaylorSpineGuy said:
Made $450 in about 4 min. If I had held, I'd be up almost $1000 but got my little bit and got out. May dip my toes in again later.
All I can say is god bless Ron Walker
Here here!!
I was busy this morning and missed the action. I think it will be hard to go below 3900 SPX / 3930 on ES. Doesn't mean it will bounce though.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
it's a leveraged ETF, it's bound to dump after ripsBrian Earl Spilner said:
Well BOIL was looking good and then went off a cliff...
Tesla looked like it was gonna go again. Nope.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
I'm following this opinion. I think you are right.
If SPY loses 390 though, I think it gets to 386, then fills gap Friday
If SPY loses 390 though, I think it gets to 386, then fills gap Friday
It's difficult to short in the hole.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
That's what she said
Let's see if this sticks.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.