Can confirm... big investment and big insurance have all said the same thing in the meetings I've had.Bonfire1996 said:
2 year treasury is now 15 basis points below where rates will be in 8 days. This is the first time this has happened during the Fed's current tightening cycle. For the past year, the 2 year treasury has listened to Powell and other members, and accelerated past where the next move was anticipated to go.
Translated: Market is telling the FED, "you don't have the balls to keep rates at next week's level for very long."
We are in a dangerous place for fiscal policy at the moment.
Stock Markets
24,050,829 Views |
231664 Replies |
Last: 2 min ago by I bleed maroon
can you expound on this point- what happens if Powell saysirish pete ag06 said:Can confirm... big investment and big insurance have all said the same thing in the meetings I've had.Bonfire1996 said:
2 year treasury is now 15 basis points below where rates will be in 8 days. This is the first time this has happened during the Fed's current tightening cycle. For the past year, the 2 year treasury has listened to Powell and other members, and accelerated past where the next move was anticipated to go.
Translated: Market is telling the FED, "you don't have the balls to keep rates at next week's level for very long."
We are in a dangerous place for fiscal policy at the moment.
"I don't care about the 2 year or the inverted yield curve- we are moving forward with 50 basis increase in December"
Then they're wrong. HahaLMCane said:can you expound on this point- what happens if Powell saysirish pete ag06 said:Can confirm... big investment and big insurance have all said the same thing in the meetings I've had.Bonfire1996 said:
2 year treasury is now 15 basis points below where rates will be in 8 days. This is the first time this has happened during the Fed's current tightening cycle. For the past year, the 2 year treasury has listened to Powell and other members, and accelerated past where the next move was anticipated to go.
Translated: Market is telling the FED, "you don't have the balls to keep rates at next week's level for very long."
We are in a dangerous place for fiscal policy at the moment.
"I don't care about the 2 year or the inverted yield curve- we are moving forward with 50 basis increase in December"
They aren't calling the bluff of next week. 50 bp is confirmed. The 2 year is calling the bluff of subsequent increases, which the FED has stated are coming.
Charismatic Megafauna
Joined:
May 22, 2017
Posts:
7,943
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
I bought a couple 395 calls for tomorrow
Yeah the market has really been thumbing its nose at Powell lately.Bonfire1996 said:
They aren't calling the bluff of next week. 50 bp is confirmed. The 2 year is calling the bluff of subsequent increases, which the FED has stated are coming.
hook close 390 or lower coming OR reverse up to model T? (400 ish).
Star this if think model T.
Star this if think model T.
Charismatic Megafauna
Joined:
May 22, 2017
Posts:
7,943
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
I guess I'm gonna join carebear's team for a while because i don't think we see 400 again soon, but i do think we tag that 395ish level again tomorrow, at which point I'll unload these calls and see if puts make sense
Charismatic Megafauna said:
I guess I'm gonna join carebear's team for a while because i don't think we see 400 again soon, but i do think we tag that 395ish level again tomorrow, at which point I'll unload these calls and see if puts make sense
Lol I'm kinda in the 400 camp before more pain. It just seems like a big move without some correction.
I actually closed a 390P today that wasn't set to expire until 12/30. Took a small loss on it but didn't feel I had a good position on the trade and made back quite a bit on it over last few days. I'm sure that trade will end up being fine but I did not like carrying big option trades overnight and this was certainly a big trade for me. It was hard to watch a good trade go deep red, and stomaching a big loss waiting for the turndown that ultimately did was just stressful.
I picked up the short position the day or two before the Powell rally last week and I didn't close it when it rallied up (dumb move!).
So again, a wise lesson learned with almost no skin off my back is a lesson worth learning. I didn't blow up my account and am happy for that.
I picked up the short position the day or two before the Powell rally last week and I didn't close it when it rallied up (dumb move!).
So again, a wise lesson learned with almost no skin off my back is a lesson worth learning. I didn't blow up my account and am happy for that.
Bonfire1996 said:
2 year treasury is now 15 basis points below where rates will be in 8 days. This is the first time this has happened during the Fed's current tightening cycle. For the past year, the 2 year treasury has listened to Powell and other members, and accelerated past where the next move was anticipated to go.
Translated: Market is telling the FED, "you don't have the balls to keep rates at next week's level for very long."
We are in a dangerous place for fiscal policy at the moment.
So if the 2 yr yield is gonna drop (and looks to have already peaked), are there any leveraged ETF's to trade to gain exposure to the short term bond?
It looks like it's in a big H&S pattern now with the neckline around 4.25. A break below there and it could drop pretty aggressively with significant move in bond price.
I thought you were about to say your wife is pregnant with a boy too.Charismatic Megafauna said:
I guess I'm gonna join carebear's team for a while because i don't think we see 400 again soon, but i do think we tag that 395ish level again tomorrow, at which point I'll unload these calls and see if puts make sense
Charismatic Megafauna
Joined:
May 22, 2017
Posts:
7,943
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Oh hell no. 2 boys and a girl and snip snip
That BOIL volume has been intense
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
Ok degenerates….post away. Prog will chime in for sure.
Interesting chart for ya….
Interesting chart for ya….
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
FJ43 said:
Ok degenerates….post away. Prog will chime in for sure.
Interesting chart for ya….
They have excellent 'articles'.
I was in this a while back but got tired of waiting on that rounded bottom, so I pulled out.
This one is up and down so I keep going back and forth, and usually wind up caught in the middle. It can lead to a wild ride, but I'm normally in and out in a few minutes.
Everybody wants in at the low.FJ43 said:
That BOIL volume has been intense
In all seriousness, I can't believe this one hasn't had it's big meme day yet. Fits the bill for that.FJ43 said:
Ok degenerates….post away. Prog will chime in for sure.
Interesting chart for ya….
Looks like mmat may be getting back on the meme menu
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11508869/Walmart-CEO-warns-retail-giant-HIKE-prices-shut-stores-thefts-continue.html
I'd support chopping off the hand of a thief.
I'd support chopping off the hand of a thief.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
Joined:
Dec 22, 2010
Posts:
11,586
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Do we get gap down open green day to keep us in this range until JPow?
I just looked at CVNA. Wow!
$30,000 Millionaire said:
I just looked at CVNA. Wow!
This may be the first zombie company to die. It's getting close. Down about 98.5% from ATH.
It's just a gimck company, right? Isn't this the company that has "vending" machines? What kind of business plan is that?
BOIL gap up.
ASO with a solid beat and is up over 8%!
Charismatic Megafauna
Joined:
May 22, 2017
Posts:
7,943
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Charismatic Megafauna said:
I guess I'm gonna join carebear's team for a while because i don't think we see 400 again soon, but i do think we tag that 395ish level again tomorrow, at which point I'll unload these calls and see if puts make sense
Dammit. I had orders in for expiring 392p for .55 and they didn't fill and i didn't chase
DNN is looking temping.
Sold some Apple stock and have some money to play with.
Have been eyeballing DNN and Gold for some time. I'm a newbie and should know more than I do right now but are those two good long term holds?
Have been eyeballing DNN and Gold for some time. I'm a newbie and should know more than I do right now but are those two good long term holds?
I usually buy DNN around $1 and then sell at 1.25. Rinse and repeat.
I just bought a new gun from Academy last week. You're welcomecgh1999 said:
ASO with a solid beat and is up over 8%!
Uranium is a gamble so I wouldn't recommend DNN as a longterm hold.TheVarian said:
Sold some Apple stock and have some money to play with.
Have been eyeballing DNN and Gold for some time. I'm a newbie and should know more than I do right now but are those two good long term holds?
Gold could be a good one, especially if the fed pivots next year, but is also a gamble.
IMO, good longterm buys today are PARA, VZ, GOOGL, BRKB, MO.
Oh and have you heard of WWR. At $1.02 per share, it's a pretty cheap entry into our cult.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
Joined:
Dec 22, 2010
Posts:
11,586
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Let's squeeze this **** to 3980. Because why not.
Featured Stories
See All
15:52
13h ago
2.3k
29:25
12h ago
1.7k
20:05
1h ago
861
The Film Room: Texas A&M 26, Bowling Green 20
by Stephen McGee
10:19
24m ago
293
LB Blitz: Texas A&M 26, Bowling Green 20
by Sean Porter
20:38
17h ago
3.5k