FJ43 said:
Hmmmm….possible Friday lotto. Could also go out a week. 185 and change next up assuming macros hold.
This is BA I posted at the yellow arrow so maybe we can get another buck or two out of it,
Needs over 175 (high today). A flash down open take the 175s or 177.5s
Personally, I am a day trader. So I will just be scalping short, and I play level to level. When I feel extremely confident about a play, I would just buy at the money options a couple weeks out, in this case would be easy exit if wrong. But 90% of my trades I am out of the same day. But most don't day trade like us here, or have the time to do so. I do agree that anything longer term in this market has been tough this year.Bob Knights Paper Hands said:lobwedgephil said:The good news on where we are, is there is no need to guess. You can wait for confirmation. We have 200MA above us and downtrend line from all time highs above that. We have rejected both so far this year, so if we get there, and reject again, go short with whatever suits your trading plan. You can go short for scalp, or longer term, and have easy exit if wrong. Until we break above, or reject, scalps only for me.BaylorSpineGuy said:
Let's talk strategy for a minute: SPX is definitely looking a little toppy here and may run up a bit higher but anticipate sellers lurking just above here.
When signals present to go short, how are you trading short? Namely, what sort of strike are you looking at and which expiry? Late Dec or early Jan mid 380s puts?
Curious what everyone is thinking.
Ron Walker brought up an interesting point tonight. If this rally were the real deal, the NASDAQ would be leading the charge and not lagging behind as it has been. In that light, the NASDAQ is close to its Model T (50% retracement).
I wonder if this is the signal to go short in any and all of the indexes?
Anyway, just trying to plan for the next wave of this bear market. This bull wave looks a bit extended now and with multiple negative divergences.
Thanks in advance.
Good post. If we reach or break the 200ema at 4064, I expect a consolidation or back test, so don't be too quick to enter short if that looks like it fails. You'll have plenty of time. I'm good at scalping short, but I've found difficulty trading longer puts in this market when those premiums are juiced. I'll probably go in heavy SPXS and SQQQ. Phil, what is your executions plan if we do confirm reversal off 200ema?
Let me know when you do. I'll sell the kids to scrape all i can together.$30,000 Millionaire said:
I need a reason not to full port VXX. Anyone have one?
Good point, done well on oil, but not as well as I should have.$30,000 Millionaire said:
Except for oil. That's been the trade this year. I also completely missed banks running.
BaylorSpineGuy said:
Happy Thanksgiving to all!
Things I'm thankful for:
God
Family
Friends
Baylor
This Board
Football/Sports, in general
Things I'm not thankful for:
Theta decay
Bear traps
Bull traps
FTX
Cognitive dissonance
WTI:XOM spread relationship. In the past, the spread was held to a tight +/- $3. A few months back XOM and the +/-$3 spread slowly disassociated itself from WTI, or vice-versa. Today, why is XOM now a large premium to WTI?BaylorSpineGuy said:
Farmer, can you please elaborate on the widening WTI/XOM gap?
Also, can you comment on a "Fed put" or a "Saudi put" on oil? This would be akin to the Fed put on the market. This comes in light of Fed recently saying they are gonna replenish SPR at $72/barrel and Saudi's saying something about increasing supply at $76/barrel? Providing liquidity at these low levels?
Is this theoretically a bottom here? I know crude closed down again today.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:WTI:XOM spread relationship. In the past, the spread was held to a tight +/- $3. A few months back XOM and the +/-$3 spread slowly disassociated itself from WTI, or vice-versa. Today, why is XOM now a large premium to WTI?BaylorSpineGuy said:
Farmer, can you please elaborate on the widening WTI/XOM gap?
Also, can you comment on a "Fed put" or a "Saudi put" on oil? This would be akin to the Fed put on the market. This comes in light of Fed recently saying they are gonna replenish SPR at $72/barrel and Saudi's saying something about increasing supply at $76/barrel? Providing liquidity at these low levels?
Is this theoretically a bottom here? I know crude closed down again today.
IMO, well before the drastic spread disassociation began, the market was trying to understand the crude oil price impact with the SPR releases(~March). The obvious thought was, added crude supply means crude price should go down and it did. The missing link in the thought process was/is the added supply is artificial. The artificial means can only work so long until the artificial supply goes to a regulated limit or zero.(Today the SPR inventory is ~390mb and JB could release down to 316mb for this type of event, "an emergency") The SPR release strategy worked to help keep gasoline pump prices low and favorable voter content with the Dems as we were heading to the Mid-Terms.
Further, to exacerbate the situation, O&G companies did not spend capex dollars to invest back into their businesses during the Covid period and account for a normal 3% annual growth rate. That's 3 years of reduced/no capex for a 9% growth that has not been accounted for. Demand was/is present. People wanted to get out and travel as Covid restrictions were lifted. Pump prices rose and the Dems saw the voter react to the pump. The JB Administration tried to shame XOM publicly into cutting prices to assist keeping gas prices low at the pump for voters. JB was telling XOM to cut their profits while simultaneously invest/spend for more drilling & exploration, not good business advice. It was the energy sector free market economics and political aggression both on a collision course to the approaching Mid-Terms. Maintaining favorable voter sentiment was key for the Dems. The "shaming" and the SPR Releases were not a successful strategy combination to fight fuel prices. JB began his Middle East tour, stops in Iran and Venezuela along the way asking for their help in producing more crude. Saudi said they would add some token amount and didn't, Iran nuke deal tied to oil did not pan out, Venezuela was dead issue with any strain added to their oil pumping infrastructure would cause a shutdown. Crude was being suppressed and XOM was reporting historic quarterly earnings. XOM began to move away from crude like a thoroughbred in the Club House turn trying to get to the inside.
Last, the overarching effects of the Green Energy policy and the JB Administration's rigid stance to support it has delivered a total disaster in the energy sector. This stance has driven energy prices up in the U.S. (Look at the even more inflated fossil fuel prices in Europe with their own Green Energy policy.) As long as Green Energy is supported/favored, crude will be considered evil. Regardless of the perceived "evilness" of crude, crude oil is needed to make the U.S. and world operate and there is no smooth transition to renewables to replace fossil fuels. This situation has brought in the hedge fund(HF) houses and they are shorting crude...and XOM. (BTW, real commodity houses cannot compete with hedge funds when the HF's walk into the commodity markets. The financial firepower is not there for the parochial commodity house.) So, HF's think that the G7 Price Caps will depress crude prices and Russia will be cash poor. It's an all-in effort to drive WTI and Brent prices down so the G7 Price Cap will yield a very low number to Russia. It's all math. Actually, NO ONE knows for sure what the price caps will do in the physical market, sans Russia, and being bearish is the easier path to take while talking the market down in the media. The last 3 days are showing the markets perception and it's a total gamble. It's a gamble because Russia is not going to bend to the West. Germany was waivering toward leniency with Russia until the Nord Stream pipes were blown. Germany now has to tow-the-line and keep on the Green Energy path while the rest of the world takes care of them with LNG. What's really at stake is the premise of Green Energy. If these world leaders can not smooth out the fossil fuel energy situation and keep a thumb on the scale, Green Energy will die or will not be welcome for a long time. Russia just happens to be a huge impediment to the success of Green Energy worldwide. There are big bets on Green Energy and it's evident by the way WTI and Brent are reacting in a fossil fuel supply short world with climbing demand. XOM in the meantime continues to pull away as their financials are driving the move and all investors are seeing this. You're either investing in a solid company or holding back because of potential blow-back from this Administration. XOM withstood a direct attack from a sitting President. I don't remember the last time something like this happened.
Over this time period, XOM separated itself from crude and today the crude market dynamic impacts are a lot different then beginning the 2022 year. Best explanation I can deliver to you.
Other stuff,..
The G7 Price Caps have no teeth to bite Russia. The Price Caps state that any economic harm they bring the EU, the EU can waive and not participate. I'm certain that all Price Caps for the various fuels will reflect that same language. That's not bearish. Further, OPEC+ will cut production to keep Brent at $95 to $110 or higher. OPEC+ will cut production based on "demand concerns". If OPEC+ does not publicly announce production cuts, they'll just conveniently miss their published quotas and crude markets will react by popping upward. JB's and EU's energy policy (Green Energy) were ill-conceived and will remain that way. O&G companies cannot build out the missing 9% growth in 12 months. O&G companies will not invest capex with continuing guidance from the Administration to end fossil fuels. It's very twisted to say the least. I'd be long crude before I'd be short.
Saudi does not have to participate in the WTI paper market to influence price. Saudi would rather stay out of the WTI paper market and allow free markets to work. Why not? They control the supply, they don't need the paper? The paper market is for everyone else so the entire business looks legit. Saudi has been, and is, warning there is a disconnect between real supply (physical market) and the paper pricing market. To bring both into price alignment, Saudi just cuts production because it's easier, no mess, no accusations of Saudi manipulating the paper market and allows Saudi to point at New York where the problem is and that pretty much is 100% correct.
Russia would rather dump crude into the ocean versus having the West dictate to them via a G7 Price Cap.
The Put,...
JB Administration set the price floor for crude at $72 and the world knows it. (JB said we are going to refill the SPR at a range of $68 to $72) Saudi has the supply. If you want it, it will be at their price. Saudi knows JB Administration is trying to kill U.S. Big Oil and go Green Energy. Saudi also knows Green Energy transition will not happen anytime soon. Saudi knows JB has no fossil fuel friends to help. Saudi will just keep cutting production until they get their price....and it won't matter what the WTI market is showing for a number.
Side Note:
*-Some media outlets in Europe are already stating they have enough LNG to make it through the winter and there are no worries. Don't believe it.
*-Big announcement that JB gave Chevron rights to go produce oil in Venezuela. I have first hand knowledge of Venezuela issues. I want to know how Chevron is going to get their money out of that country once they start producing oil and selling (and that will take months to get the first drops). The U.S. Gov't has to be guaranteeing massive insurances for Chevron. The company I spent the majority of my career with had 4 major assets there. Since the year 2014, we could not bring back any money(profit) to the U.S. Profit had to stay in-country. Money was losing value everyday due to inflation. My company just started buying real estate, all types with the hostage profit. The Gov't nationalized those manufacturing assets twice. The assets were operated into the ground by Gov't employees with no experience and with no maintenance. Later the assets were returned to us to repair and forced to operate. (Twice) Good luck down in Venezuela.
*-Jim Cramer announced that an Options Trader told him that crude would be the Mother Of All Buys after Thanksgiving. ..... I believe that.
ETA: Green Energy has been in the mix for a long long time. President O told us so. There's a radio interview I can't find right now where he discusses electricity and the price should be much higher, multiple times higher.
ETA#2: Nearest thing I could find.
https://www.politico.com/story/2012/04/uttered-in-2008-still-haunting-obama-in-2012-074892
I hope this helps you in some way.
Happy Thanksgiving!
Happy Thanksgiving to all and congrats bmoochie to the new Aggie!bmoochie said:
Happy thanksgiving B&I family! Thankful for this group to learn from the best and thankful for my son who we had 3 weeks ago. Lots to be thankful for.
Oh and for possible lotto Friday with FJ tomorrow!
Somebody is getting quality time later tonight.FJ43 said:
Happy Thanksgiving from the FJs
Turkey is tomorrow. For now…
Elk slider
Rabbit & Rattlesnake sausage
Crab cake with ancho chili
Next course. Venison chili
Main course…. Bison Ribeye and that other stuff.
And I'm out. Ancho cayenne chocolate cake and vanilla bean ice cream.
Nap time.
DISCLAIMER: HIGH RISK #LottoFriday
— Theta Warrior (@ThetaWarrior) November 24, 2022
Keep bets small. Don't risk all your turkey.$CHWY 42.5C >42.8 | 40P <39.89$SBUX 100C >100.08 | 98P <98.67$TSM 84C >83.19 | 80P <81.03
Good luck! 🎲🦃 pic.twitter.com/Ot7CyXEfIk
Trade plan for #LottoFriday ✅$SPX setting up for a move to 4063,4100 as long as 4020 holds. Calls can work above 4020$TSLA can move to 196-200 range if it holds the 182 support. Calls can work above 185$NVDA to 172 possible by early next week. Calls can work above 165
— EliteOptionsTrader (@EliteOptions2) November 24, 2022
BaylorSpineGuy said:
Btw, Dow Theory sell signal has formed. Down Transports made lower high as DJIA made a higher high. Has been a reliable sell signal through entirety of this downtrend this year. Suspect we are getting close to a reversal on Friday or Monday since it's a short session tomorrow.
ProgN said:BaylorSpineGuy said:
Btw, Dow Theory sell signal has formed. Down Transports made lower high as DJIA made a higher high. Has been a reliable sell signal through entirety of this downtrend this year. Suspect we are getting close to a reversal on Friday or Monday since it's a short session tomorrow.
Although I've never had the pleasure to shake your hand, you make me laugh. It's Thanksgiving and tomorrow's trading will be meaningless but you're going full 'Rain Man' bringing analysis when everyone is probably feeling no pain, myself included.
I'm just f'ing with you Doc and we all love you. Pour a drink, kiss your bride's tummy to let your gestating little man feel your love. Please keep us updated as his arrival date approaches because we're all praying for mother and baby. I'm glad that you and everyone are here because everyone in here makes this place the best.
I know I'm a dick sometimes but I am thankful for everyone here because regardless of left or right, we are all on the same team with the same goal. We're all focused on the same goal and rowing together in the same direction. That's why I asked 30K to put his post as his sig, 'you don't trade for money, you trade for freedom'. That is so true and powerful, I'm just pissed I didn't think of it first.
Happy Thanksgiving to all and I'll see you on the field of battle.
