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FJ43
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In reply to FJ43 • 3:54p, 11/22/22
FJ43 said:
Lotto'd 398p expiring tomorrow for .79. Lotto scratch off only.


Targeting the yellow SR I drew in here at the arrow. Takes the lotto just ITM.

A close over the 200EMA (TradingView chart) is pretty strong. Also over my SR that's been a challenge. So the lotto is looking for a back test of that yellow SR and exit all or trim and set a trail since expiring tomorrow.

If not just a lotto. If so Mrs FJ gets spending money.

The real lotto would be the above with a flash down on 1-2 min chart, responded with volume then buy the 'V' 400c back the other way. But I'm sick like that.

All is void with a gap and go.


Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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FJ43
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In reply to Boy Named Sue • 3:56p, 11/22/22
Boy Named Sue said:
I'm in if you reinstitute lotto Fridays, even if it's just a learning experience. I assume it's allowed within an IRA?


You can buy options in an IRA, however, whether or not you can buy same day expiration will be per your broker.

I only take these in my trading accounts.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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$30,000 Millionaire
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In reply to Boy Named Sue • 4:01p, 11/22/22
AG
Boy Named Sue said:
$30,000 Millionaire said:
$LABU is a bit beaten down. I'm going to buy some here for a quick swing, likely through tomorrow.

Target $7
Good call. I bought at $6.60, closed at $6.91. You still out at $7 tomorrow?
Yes
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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4:09p, 11/22/22
-Look for a large crude draw tomorrow in the EIA report.
-Today's momentum carries through tomorrow.
-FYI - Freeport is responsible for 20% of the LNG export from this country. That's why it's a big deal. Last updated schedule with merit for this plant to be back up was Mid to Late Nov. It's not behind plan, yet.
-Saudi is not effin around. Joe Brandon Administration and the WSJ are a disgrace to this country. Lot of losses based on WSJ story. Class Action Suit, with or without merit would be epic. Overall just really sad.
-Hope you bought the dip yesterday, on crude or anything O&G. Don't care what TA shows or doesn't show. It's not time to think a top in the energy sector is in. These pullbacks are breathers or a halftime IV. If you can time an entry and the exit, and can monitor the entry & exit with $30K precision, fine. If you can't, risk is too great, IMO.
-West Virginia - home to large amounts of poverty, sitting on a mountain of coal, coal plants in disrepair - by design and remaining power plants (natgas) struggling to supply power, folks out of position in cash to pay current heating bills. Very sad.
-India to build 300 MegaWatt Coal Fired Plant. hmmmm,....
-Dec 4th Sun OPEC+ meets
-Dec 5th Mon Price Caps
-Dec 6th Tue API
-Dec 7th Wed is EIA
-Dec 13 Tue & 14 Wed - Fed Meetings - Meeting associated with a Summary of Economic Projections
-XOM $120 very very very likely by year end.
-XOM is way undervalued. If you read that Talking Alpha article about XOM $100/share fair value, it's pure unadulterated BS, IMHO. The real fair value will stun you. Take their latest oil finds and the percentage ownership and add to the existing. Lowball it using $50 crude, or $60 crude or $70 crude. buckle your chin strap because your jaw will drop. .... Did I mention $1 Trillion before? .... Yes, I think I did..
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ProgN
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In reply to bmoochie • 4:17p, 11/22/22
bmoochie said:
Yes we sure did until you abandoned us
fJ



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FJ43
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In reply to FJ43 • 4:34p, 11/22/22
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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FJ43
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6:06p, 11/22/22

The meal of road traders prepping for drive trading tomorrow.

Grilled corn tortillas
Barbacoa
Melted cojita
Onions
Cilantro
Dipping juices

Oh…straight to the bottom with Bud Light

Let's ride gents


Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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ProgN
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In reply to FJ43 • 6:11p, 11/22/22
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FJ43
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6:23p, 11/22/22

Well…..

That didn't last long. But I'm ready for trading now.


Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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$30,000 Millionaire
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8:02p, 11/22/22
AG
$BOIL people - the EU wants to limit futures prices on nat gas.
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ProgN
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 8:09p, 11/22/22
$30,000 Millionaire said:
$BOIL people - the EU wants to limit futures prices on nat gas.
Because price controls have always worked before, I'm sure it will be different this time.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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8:09p, 11/22/22
AG
Farmer - can you please kindly share opinions on

VLO
LPI
PAA
DINO

Much appreciated!
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Ragoo
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 8:10p, 11/22/22
AG
TRGP

You are welcome
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ProgN
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 8:12p, 11/22/22
$30,000 Millionaire said:

DINO

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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 9:47p, 11/22/22
$30,000 Millionaire said:
Farmer - can you please kindly share opinions on

VLO = I love this company and I don't own a share of it...and I can't explain why. I just don't have any more money to invest is the best answer I can come up with.

LPI = I think you can find a better performer, but it looks like a real wildcat that could provide some volatility. I didn't check their Options activity, but if there are players, action and liquidity, it might be a fun day-to-day trade exercise. I would not hold long term. Debt and physical performance I think are questionable. At least should raise an eyebrow.

PAA = I like. Solid pipeline play. One other to consider in this business is TRP but it's Canadian, if that matters.(?)

DINO = Solid performer and should deliver, but I think there are better growth opportunities if seeking growth. Consider TTE for same kind of play, but may offer a more rounded package of acceptance in the woke world....and that's a plus right now worldwide regardless that FTX had a perfect ESG score..

If I were buying, I'd buy
1. VLO
2. PAA
3. DINO
4 LPI

I hope this helps in some way.

Much appreciated!
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$30,000 Millionaire
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In reply to Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX • 10:03p, 11/22/22
AG
Yes, thank you. LPI looks like a great day trade candidate. What I like is that the sector is in an uptrend, which gives everything lift, but you can game the high volatility plays.

I am still pissed at CHK for screwing me so hard in the mid 2010s. I'll never touch it again.
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BaylorSpineGuy
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10:08p, 11/22/22
Let's talk strategy for a minute: SPX is definitely looking a little toppy here and may run up a bit higher but anticipate sellers lurking just above here.

When signals present to go short, how are you trading short? Namely, what sort of strike are you looking at and which expiry? Late Dec or early Jan mid 380s puts?

Curious what everyone is thinking.

Ron Walker brought up an interesting point tonight. If this rally were the real deal, the NASDAQ would be leading the charge and not lagging behind as it has been. In that light, the NASDAQ is close to its Model T (50% retracement).

I wonder if this is the signal to go short in any and all of the indexes?

Anyway, just trying to plan for the next wave of this bear market. This bull wave looks a bit extended now and with multiple negative divergences.

Thanks in advance.
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Golf1
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 10:17p, 11/22/22
AG
Looking at SPY I thought 400 will be an interesting point and we are here now so curious to see the market tomorrow. I could see a run up to 403 again but I think next week will be a pull back and we might then begin to see 390/380/370. I'm having a tough time looking at it because I thought end of the year was typically a strong close for the bulls so I don't know what to expect in December.
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lobwedgephil
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 10:21p, 11/22/22
BaylorSpineGuy said:
Let's talk strategy for a minute: SPX is definitely looking a little toppy here and may run up a bit higher but anticipate sellers lurking just above here.

When signals present to go short, how are you trading short? Namely, what sort of strike are you looking at and which expiry? Late Dec or early Jan mid 380s puts?

Curious what everyone is thinking.

Ron Walker brought up an interesting point tonight. If this rally were the real deal, the NASDAQ would be leading the charge and not lagging behind as it has been. In that light, the NASDAQ is close to its Model T (50% retracement).

I wonder if this is the signal to go short in any and all of the indexes?

Anyway, just trying to plan for the next wave of this bear market. This bull wave looks a bit extended now and with multiple negative divergences.

Thanks in advance.
The good news on where we are, is there is no need to guess. You can wait for confirmation. We have 200MA above us and downtrend line from all time highs above that. We have rejected both so far this year, so if we get there, and reject again, go short with whatever suits your trading plan. You can go short for scalp, or longer term, and have easy exit if wrong. Until we break above, or reject, scalps only for me.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 10:21p, 11/22/22
AG
BaylorSpineGuy said:
Let's talk strategy for a minute: SPX is definitely looking a little toppy here and may run up a bit higher but anticipate sellers lurking just above here.

When signals present to go short, how are you trading short? Namely, what sort of strike are you looking at and which expiry? Late Dec or early Jan mid 380s puts?

Curious what everyone is thinking.

Ron Walker brought up an interesting point tonight. If this rally were the real deal, the NASDAQ would be leading the charge and not lagging behind as it has been. In that light, the NASDAQ is close to its Model T (50% retracement).

I wonder if this is the signal to go short in any and all of the indexes?

Anyway, just trying to plan for the next wave of this bear market. This bull wave looks a bit extended now and with multiple negative divergences.

Thanks in advance.
Don't guess. React.
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 10:27p, 11/22/22
Okay. Here's one I don't own, but I will likely buy some within 6 months, because I'm cash poor right now and Uncle Sam needs to be fed in January and April. CQP. CQP would be a perfect fit in XOM. CQP debt will knock your eyes out, but they know how to manage it, so far. XOM will have the cash to buy these folks out and LNG is a great growth point for the near term and long term for XOM especially if they replace Gazprom in EU. .... In the media, there's always DEN being tossed around as a takeover by XOM. DEN would be a good fit with their carbon dioxide enhanced oil recovery (CO2 EOR). So, I think someone gets taken by XOM in "Free Agency" in 2023. It has to be something XOM feels can throw off cash a little faster than normal. If the Free Agent fits in their system easily, I think it wins. XOM made a bet in the Covid years and it's raining money for them. XOM will be extremely wise with whatever/whoever they purchase as opposed to let's say....AT&T..
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to lobwedgephil • 10:53p, 11/22/22
lobwedgephil said:
BaylorSpineGuy said:
Let's talk strategy for a minute: SPX is definitely looking a little toppy here and may run up a bit higher but anticipate sellers lurking just above here.

When signals present to go short, how are you trading short? Namely, what sort of strike are you looking at and which expiry? Late Dec or early Jan mid 380s puts?

Curious what everyone is thinking.

Ron Walker brought up an interesting point tonight. If this rally were the real deal, the NASDAQ would be leading the charge and not lagging behind as it has been. In that light, the NASDAQ is close to its Model T (50% retracement).

I wonder if this is the signal to go short in any and all of the indexes?

Anyway, just trying to plan for the next wave of this bear market. This bull wave looks a bit extended now and with multiple negative divergences.

Thanks in advance.
The good news on where we are, is there is no need to guess. You can wait for confirmation. We have 200MA above us and downtrend line from all time highs above that. We have rejected both so far this year, so if we get there, and reject again, go short with whatever suits your trading plan. You can go short for scalp, or longer term, and have easy exit if wrong. Until we break above, or reject, scalps only for me.






"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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11:12p, 11/22/22
Borrowed quote

Price Cap Without "Silver Bullet"

Last week, EU officials warned that once a gas price cap was initiated, it would be "immediately" revoked in the event that there were any negative economic consequences for the bloc, Euronews reported.

Interesting. It appears that the G7 Price Cap is another vacuous political gesture.
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Philip J Fry
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12:52a, 11/23/22
AG
Putting these on my watch list for tomorrow.

TNP
INSW
UCL
DPRO

Also, based on the last time BOIL shots up to 50, I was anticipating a big sell off. Looks like it's up another 10% pre market today. Is there a consensus for a price target here? One thing I've learned from trading natural gas is that there's much more to it than TA.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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In reply to Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX • 7:06a, 11/23/22
AG
AT&T's current management is smarter than what they have had.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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In reply to Philip J Fry • 7:10a, 11/23/22
AG
I was out at 46. Nat gas tends to be bullish this time of year but this would be around where I'd want to exit for a recharge.
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Philip J Fry
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 7:21a, 11/23/22
AG
Yeah, I did the same. Very self conscious about fomoing into losing everything I gained.
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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In reply to lobwedgephil • 7:21a, 11/23/22
lobwedgephil said:
BaylorSpineGuy said:
Let's talk strategy for a minute: SPX is definitely looking a little toppy here and may run up a bit higher but anticipate sellers lurking just above here.

When signals present to go short, how are you trading short? Namely, what sort of strike are you looking at and which expiry? Late Dec or early Jan mid 380s puts?

Curious what everyone is thinking.

Ron Walker brought up an interesting point tonight. If this rally were the real deal, the NASDAQ would be leading the charge and not lagging behind as it has been. In that light, the NASDAQ is close to its Model T (50% retracement).

I wonder if this is the signal to go short in any and all of the indexes?

Anyway, just trying to plan for the next wave of this bear market. This bull wave looks a bit extended now and with multiple negative divergences.

Thanks in advance.
The good news on where we are, is there is no need to guess. You can wait for confirmation. We have 200MA above us and downtrend line from all time highs above that. We have rejected both so far this year, so if we get there, and reject again, go short with whatever suits your trading plan. You can go short for scalp, or longer term, and have easy exit if wrong. Until we break above, or reject, scalps only for me.

Good post. If we reach or break the 200ema at 4064, I expect a consolidation or back test, so don't be too quick to enter short if that looks like it fails. You'll have plenty of time. I'm good at scalping short, but I've found difficulty trading longer puts in this market when those premiums are juiced. I'll probably go in heavy SPXS and SQQQ. Phil, what is your executions plan if we do confirm reversal off 200ema?
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$30,000 Millionaire
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7:28a, 11/23/22
AG
I went ahead and got out of LABU at 6.9
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to Philip J Fry • 7:31a, 11/23/22
Philip J Fry said:
Putting these on my watch list for tomorrow.

TNP
INSW
UCL
DPRO

Also, based on the last time BOIL shots up to 50, I was anticipating a big sell off. Looks like it's up another 10% pre market today. Is there a consensus for a price target here? One thing I've learned from trading natural gas is that there's much more to it than TA.


I was expecting $7 resistance for gas futures. Maybe $7.5 now. Trend is up on all timeframes. So a reversal is purely a guess. But daily is starting to get hot. Probably a great place to take some profits if you haven't already like 30k said.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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7:33a, 11/23/22
AG
More people get laid off. I bet they think this is bullish.
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BlueTaze
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7:41a, 11/23/22
For anyone trying to predict SPX months out- What IF inflation proves more supply constraint related than monetary. I know the "transitory" term was assigned a short timeframe and thrown out, but IF we see inflation sharply decline in coming months that could be case. Inflationary dem spending bills will now be curtailed, and the QE low rate hangover in lag indicators flushes out.

Thats the least expected suprise bull case IMO. Otherwise, inflation proves more sticky mostly due to a QE overeaction to COVID, which seems be more the current expectation.
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Gabster43213
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7:50a, 11/23/22
I have a feeling that today could be a rough day.
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Philip J Fry
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In reply to Bob Knights Paper Hands • 8:23a, 11/23/22
AG
If we reverse, I'll jump into SH. Not sure I'm going to go the triple leveraged route on the short side. We've seen Japan and England goose the markets so there is some manipulation going on too.

I'll come out if my cave around 3400 for the next reversal.
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Philip J Fry
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In reply to Gabster43213 • 8:28a, 11/23/22
AG
Gabster43213 said:
I have a feeling that today could be a rough day.


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