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Triple_Bagger
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3:17p, 11/21/22
The SPX consolidation continues (day 7?). How many more days left?

The last 2 consolidations broke on the 9th day (5/27-6/9 & 7/29-8/10). This would align with the Fed Meeting Minutes on Wednesday.

Big thanks to the WSJ for gifting us CVX @176 and OXY @67 this morning.

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FJ43
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4:02p, 11/21/22
Saw this chart buried in a reply to one of the Twitter stock guys.

Interesting where we see. This is ES and same zone and range as in June.

Which way to we break this time?

Edit: I show the zone to be different but same scenario.


Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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$30,000 Millionaire
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4:18p, 11/21/22
AG
Kind of a snoozer of a day!
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Red Rover
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5:39p, 11/21/22
AG
I am looking for some low cost ETFs and wanted to get some input from you fine folks. And the rest of you as well.

I didn't want to clutter the trading thread, so I started a thread here https://texags.com/forums/57/topics/3343653
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ProgN
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In reply to Red Rover • 5:57p, 11/21/22
Red Rover said:
I am looking for some low cost ETFs and wanted to get some input from you fine folks. And the rest of you as well.

I didn't want to clutter the trading thread, so I started a thread here https://texags.com/forums/57/topics/3343653
Just buy SPY and forget about it if it's for a long term hold.
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ballchain
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6:22p, 11/21/22
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ProgN
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In reply to ballchain • 6:31p, 11/21/22
ballchain said:
I just blew a load on 350 $TSLA. Not sure if it has hit bottom yet, but believe the tanking is related to the #Twitter drama so hoping it jumps back up in the long haul.

Disclaimer: I shorted it earlier in the year due to the hunch that the #Twitter stuff would hurt it.
350 is obviously the strike price, what timeframe did you buy?
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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to ProgN • 6:36p, 11/21/22
ProgN said:
ballchain said:
I just blew a load on 350 $TSLA. Not sure if it has hit bottom yet, but believe the tanking is related to the #Twitter drama so hoping it jumps back up in the long haul.

Disclaimer: I shorted it earlier in the year due to the hunch that the #Twitter stuff would hurt it.
350 is obviously the strike price, what timeframe did you buy?


I took it to mean he bought 350 shares.
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FJ43
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In reply to FJ43 • 6:36p, 11/21/22
FJ43 said:

Watch this. If this crosses I'm out.

Jan 16, Dec 18, Mar 20.....?

OK just a call back to what I alerted to back on May 4th or so. When I alerted to that and it happened, we've been down ever since other than bear rally moves. Check your charts.

Now for a new update. I am not saying or predicting anything. Remember I trade this game. Just saying pay attention to more than 1 min charts, hourly or even daily. Be aware of overall market dynamics.

The last time the blue crossed the orange EMA on the weekly SPX was 2008. Maybe it doesn't. Maybe it does.

Trade wisely my friends…..


Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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FJ43
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6:41p, 11/21/22
If it does…..2023 will be….sporty
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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ProgN
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 6:51p, 11/21/22
BaylorSpineGuy said:
ProgN said:
ballchain said:
I just blew a load on 350 $TSLA. Not sure if it has hit bottom yet, but believe the tanking is related to the #Twitter drama so hoping it jumps back up in the long haul.

Disclaimer: I shorted it earlier in the year due to the hunch that the #Twitter stuff would hurt it.
350 is obviously the strike price, what timeframe did you buy?


I took it to mean he bought 350 shares.
Ahhh, my bad. It's been a LONG day so I'm not surprised I interpreted that wrong. Thanks doc.
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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to ProgN • 7:24p, 11/21/22
ProgN said:
BaylorSpineGuy said:
ProgN said:
ballchain said:
I just blew a load on 350 $TSLA. Not sure if it has hit bottom yet, but believe the tanking is related to the #Twitter drama so hoping it jumps back up in the long haul.

Disclaimer: I shorted it earlier in the year due to the hunch that the #Twitter stuff would hurt it.
350 is obviously the strike price, what timeframe did you buy?


I took it to mean he bought 350 shares.
Ahhh, my bad. It's been a LONG day so I'm not surprised I interpreted that wrong. Thanks doc.


I'm not saying I'm right lol just differences in interpretation! Haha.

Just watched Ron walker's update tonight. Pretty good video tonight. Agree market looks pretty toppy right now. Not sure how much farther this rally continues but it's getting tight.

Something is gonna spook the markets tho cause it's primed for another 18-20% leg down. Crypto scare, liquidity issues, credit market issues? FOMC minutes?

Not entirely sure but I suspect something rolls over inside of a week.

My friend from church owns largest (or 2nd largest?) cabinet making company in DFW (has over 500 employees). They said their orders are slowing drastically. There's still backup which is keeping them good for now, but they are accustomed to 250 new orders/week, and they're down to about 130 (and that includes some of the backloaded stuff). He thinks things will roll over after new year.

So interest rates are taking effect. Just trying to share insight across different sectors. :-)
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ProgN
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 7:43p, 11/21/22
I'm in construction again now as a project manager. My former boss asked me to comeback and oversee phase 2 of an apartment complex. I agreed because I like the challenge but things are beginning to slow down for my subs and suppliers. The only thing not dropping is the price of materials. All of the interest rate hikes the fed has done haven't even been felt yet, it's going to get worse.
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RosecityAg
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In reply to FJ43 • 9:32p, 11/21/22
AG
FJ43 said:
FJ43 said:

Watch this. If this crosses I'm out.

Jan 16, Dec 18, Mar 20.....?

https://f5s-img.s3.amazonaws.com/000/b6/87/b687f95b2ba955eeffbcd5faa3c4623727d00e3c_864240_u249796.jpg
OK just a call back to what I alerted to back on May 4th or so. When I alerted to that and it happened, we've been down ever since other than bear rally moves. Check your charts.

Now for a new update. I am not saying or predicting anything. Remember I trade this game. Just saying pay attention to more than 1 min charts, hourly or even daily. Be aware of overall market dynamics.

The last time the blue crossed the orange EMA on the weekly SPX was 2008. Maybe it doesn't. Maybe it does.

Trade wisely my friends…..

https://f5s-img.s3.amazonaws.com/000/b8/e7/b8e7d2777edf9f3d55fe907faf7a21ec27c89a8a_1086485_u249796.jpg
Appreciate this update FJ. Keep us posted…
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$30,000 Millionaire
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11:51p, 11/21/22
AG
SPX monthly 8 and 21 EMA crossed last week. This hasn't happened since very briefly in 2010 and before that 2008, then 2001.
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Philip J Fry
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 4:25a, 11/22/22
AG
So bullish?

I am now back to 100% cash after yesterdays move.
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FJ43
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4:40a, 11/22/22
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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wanderer
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In reply to Philip J Fry • 6:45a, 11/22/22
I'm always curious when people say this.

100% cash across all accts (retirement, trading, etc)?
100% cash in just trading accounts??
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Heineken-Ashi
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7:20a, 11/22/22
We are <200 away from SPX bear market ultimate resistance. Being in cash here is a great position. If the trend confirms upward you will have chances to deploy. If it rejects, again, you will be better off than ifhad you deployed early.

If you're all cash, I'd deploy a little bit (5-10%) to take advantage of the downside potential. I'd then deploy half of that amount to take advantage of the upside. And I'd make these moves in ways that aren't going to punish me with theta.

We are approaching an inflection point. You can take advantage of these points without being risky with your cash.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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Philip J Fry
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In reply to wanderer • 7:57a, 11/22/22
AG
wanderer said:
I'm always curious when people say this.

100% cash across all accts (retirement, trading, etc)?
100% cash in just trading accounts??



With the exception of my net free XOM shares, all accounts.

I watched my retirement account implode this year (CPOAX went from a 5 star mutual fund to a 1 star) and decided I needed to be more proactive instead of just ignoring the market., At one point, I was approaching 50% loss for the year! Now I'm nearly back to where I started and it hasn't been easy. It's been stressful. I do my technicals every night. I follow when the fed meetings are. At some point, I'll set it and forget it, but not until we are out of this bear market.

Basically, I'm swing trading the SPX. It's been fairly predictable in these channels. I layer my entry in when it looks like support is holding and then I exit when nearing resistance. Wish I'd started this sooner instead of riding the ship to the bottom.
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wanderer
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In reply to wanderer • 9:08a, 11/22/22
wanderer said:
Yep. It can be the best technical set up in the world, but if oil is down 5% it's got no chance. There's still a month to go, but looks like a loss.
Looking a lot better after the fake oil news yesterday. I went in with Dec $47.50 & $50 calls when it tanked yesterday.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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9:11a, 11/22/22
AG
I completely mismanaged a GUSH trade. I bought at 182 and sold at 185 in pre market.
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Golf1
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9:12a, 11/22/22
AG
Holding anything right now has been tough. Theta is just killing anything.
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techno-ag
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9:12a, 11/22/22
AG
UVXY setting new 52wl today.
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Triple_Bagger
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In reply to FJ43 • 9:24a, 11/22/22
I see you FJ


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Philip J Fry
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 9:25a, 11/22/22
AG
I wish my mishandled trades resulted in a slight profit.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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9:27a, 11/22/22
AG
Taking lotto on TSLA 170C. Stop 2.5.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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In reply to Philip J Fry • 9:27a, 11/22/22
AG
Philip J Fry said:
I wish my mishandled trades resulted in a slight profit.


I make errors too. Don't worry.
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HoustonAg2014
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In reply to ProgN • 9:34a, 11/22/22
AG
ProgN said:
I'm in construction again now as a project manager. My former boss asked me to comeback and oversee phase 2 of an apartment complex. I agreed because I like the challenge but things are beginning to slow down for my subs and suppliers. The only thing not dropping is the price of materials. All of the interest rate hikes the fed has done haven't even been felt yet, it's going to get worse.


I am in home building. We were averaging 15-20 houses a year semi custom. There have been talks about not building anything this next year. We slammed the brakes about 3 months ago when we were full steam ahead…

I am seeing some drops in material prices but the subs are the ones it is taking a while to drop their prices. They got fat and happy and were in such high demand so now they don't want to work for less. They are going to start having to if they want to out food on the table. They seem like the last thing to watch as far as prices to build are concerned.
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9:56a, 11/22/22
AG
Great move on the macros. Want to see if Tsla can get motivated here. I'd like at least $5 on it.
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9:59a, 11/22/22
AG
You know what looks really good is Cisco. I need a pull back to buy it though.
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10:05a, 11/22/22
AG
I think $VLO also may find a bid later today.

I am using shares, but in lieu of shares, I would use a $132C. Stop about $138.
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techno-ag
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10:12a, 11/22/22
AG
BOIL touching 50 today.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 10:14a, 11/22/22
AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:
I think $VLO also may find a bid later today.

I am using shares, but in lieu of shares, I would use a $132C. Stop about $138.
These options are up about 5% from when I posted. Enough for Starbucks on 1 contract.
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to techno-ag • 10:29a, 11/22/22
techno-ag said:
BOIL touching 50 today.
Natural Gas is pretty heated



I expect $7 to be significant resistance.. but daily beer candles are showing solid uptrend.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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