I wouldn't be shocked if we go green
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Last: 21 min ago by Talon2DSO
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Dec 22, 2010
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I scalped o Dte SPX calls once we broke, held, and retested the intraday 10ema. Also the QQQ breaking above it's intraday 9ema as SPX was consolidating gave me confidence to double my volume. I sold all options just as we crossed above the intraday 20ema. I probably could have held for more, but that little bump was well more than my daily target.
Fridays lows are holding up so I wouldn't be surprised either.
Still holding my SPY puts though.
Still holding my SPY puts though.
Best flag breakdown here. Decent bottom wick tho. Will see if it breaks 393 support.
Triple_Bagger said:Take it with a grain of salt. All reports are referencing WSJ, who cites unidentified sources.techno-ag said:
Saudis talking about a production increase. That's all it took.
"the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday, citing unidentified delegates within the group."
SAUDIS DENY REPORT OF DISCUSSIONS ABOUT OPEC+ OIL - OUTPUT HIKE
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) November 21, 2022
Geez, what happened??
SPY: huge 1min red candle at 10:57a
OIL/CL/etc: huge 1min green candle at 11:01a
SPY: huge 1min red candle at 10:57a
OIL/CL/etc: huge 1min green candle at 11:01a
ahhh, there ya go
Saudis laughed at the WSJ leak.wanderer said:
Geez, what happened??
SPY: huge 1min red candle at 10:57a
OIL/CL/etc: huge 1min green candle at 11:01a
Odds that rumor came from team Biden?
Up 21% on BOIL. Why is it so hard to exit while you're ahead? The greedy side of my brain is telling me to hold out for $100.
Yup. That's why they call it the widow maker. You're riding high then the bottom falls out in a matter of minutes.Philip J Fry said:
Up 21% on BOIL. Why is it so hard to exit while you're ahead? The greedy side of my brain is telling me to hold out for $100.
What made BOIL run today?Philip J Fry said:
Up 21% on BOIL. Why is it so hard to exit while you're ahead? The greedy side of my brain is telling me to hold out for $100.
Was waiting for a pullback to enter and now it's running like a stuck pig.
Yeah, it's horrifying to see what typically happens after the gap up past the upper Bollinger bands.
The way I'm trying to train myself is 3 trades like that is nearly a double.Philip J Fry said:
Up 21% on BOIL. Why is it so hard to exit while you're ahead? The greedy side of my brain is telling me to hold out for $100.
3 20%ers is way easier than 1 100%er
Despite the bullishness, todays candle is still an indecision candle. And That's two indecisions in a row without breaking the previous top. It could keep running to $7. But that could be a place where it runs out of steam and starts its journey down.FTAG 2000 said:What made BOIL run today?Philip J Fry said:
Up 21% on BOIL. Why is it so hard to exit while you're ahead? The greedy side of my brain is telling me to hold out for $100.
Was waiting for a pullback to enter and now it's running like a stuck pig.
Edit: I'm looking at natural gas not boil.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Just to be clear, SPY is trading below the 100 period MA on the 10D/15min chart except for a brief breakout at close on Friday. It is back below it all day today.
I suspect it'll need to break that resistance to resume the next move higher.
I suspect it'll need to break that resistance to resume the next move higher.
Right. Just need to make 18 trades if you start at 50K that go to 20% and you'll have 7 digits. How hard can it be?irish pete ag06 said:The way I'm trying to train myself is 3 trades like that is nearly a double.Philip J Fry said:
Up 21% on BOIL. Why is it so hard to exit while you're ahead? The greedy side of my brain is telling me to hold out for $100.
3 20%ers is way easier than 1 100%er
Go on, don't stop. I'm almost there.Philip J Fry said:Right. Just need to make 18 trades if you start at 50K that go to 20% and you'll have 7 digits. How hard can it be?irish pete ag06 said:The way I'm trying to train myself is 3 trades like that is nearly a double.Philip J Fry said:
Up 21% on BOIL. Why is it so hard to exit while you're ahead? The greedy side of my brain is telling me to hold out for $100.
3 20%ers is way easier than 1 100%er
Everyone trading BOIL, or any other commodity, need to understand what drives the pricing. Northeast US and European weather, weekly EIA storage reports, associated gas from oil production and Freeport LNG timing is a good place to start. Other than that you're simply gambling not knowing the odds.
Also, how much we have in reserves, right? I've been trying to gather historical data and it's pretty much all over the place...beyond January being the worst month to invest in.
Kind of reminds me of this
Crazy that Freeport still hasn't restarted over a minor explosion that has been rectified for months, just due to the political witch hunt against oil and gas. Good thing no one cares what happens in rare earth element mines.
Live video of day trading on a day like today. Ken Shamrock is the market maker.
Philip J Fry said:
Also, how much we have in reserves, right? I've been trying to gather historical data and it's pretty much all over the place...beyond January being the worst month to invest in.
I wouldn't say January is the worst month to invest in it, you just need to understand weather is controlling it. If it stays cold, prices will go up.
If it wasn't for Freeport we would be super low on total storage. We are getting close to last years storage figures and 5 year average storage figures are a bit above that. Took the week off since I have sooo much pto I haven't used, I don't have all the most up to date figures in front of me.
The Freeport situation smells like shyt to me. They should have been up and going a month or two ago, kept getting delayed. You even had LNG ships parked off Freeport just waiting, something I personally tracked day by day. It makes me think how much say the government has in this. They specifically targeted natural gas prices as a way to lower electricity prices and their inflation figures. Go figure, keeping 2 Bcf/day from being exported from the states is an easy way to accomplish that and since a small fraction of Americans follow this and understand it, it's so easy for the government to manipulate natural gas pricing when you just have to keep one single LNG plant offline vs manipulating oil prices through the SPR.
I wasn't understanding how freeport was keeping the gas prices low until now. So we use freeport to export to Europe and without it, we are keeping the LNG here in America?
Meanwhile, Europe continues to be under Putin's thumb because we aren't exporting our natural gas? Do I have that right? If so, that's ****ed up.
Meanwhile, Europe continues to be under Putin's thumb because we aren't exporting our natural gas? Do I have that right? If so, that's ****ed up.
Adding a few to my net free Dec Monthly VIX 30C here. Scaling some in just in case. If you take any maybe look at the 28s.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
This should help you and everyone else wanting to track gas.
https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
Every Thursday at 9:30am you'll have the EIA report. This has a huge effect on the prompt month.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/
This is the 6-10 day and 8-14 day forecasts. Crucial to follow in the winter. More blue in the northeast the more gas they'll use.
https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
Every Thursday at 9:30am you'll have the EIA report. This has a huge effect on the prompt month.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/
This is the 6-10 day and 8-14 day forecasts. Crucial to follow in the winter. More blue in the northeast the more gas they'll use.
Interesting. Thanks for that info. I'll certainly dig into it.
When I looked back over the past 25 years, 17 times out of 25, the price had dropped in February compared to January. It was the only real trend I was able to spot.
When I looked back over the past 25 years, 17 times out of 25, the price had dropped in February compared to January. It was the only real trend I was able to spot.
Philip J Fry said:
I wasn't understanding how freeport was keeping the gas prices low until now. So we use freeport to export to Europe and without it, we are keeping the LNG here in America?
Meanwhile, Europe continues to be under Putin's thumb because we aren't exporting our natural gas? Do I have that right? If so, that's ****ed up.
That's why blowing up nord stream was such a MASSIVE deal. They can't just turn the spigot back on and bring gas to Europe. The more I look at it the more I think an EU country did it. Germany was already wavering and the rest of Europe couldn't have that, if Germany went back on their word and struck a deal with Russia, it would have been all over IMO. If would fracture the EU.
The complete morons in European governments have completely failed their citizens. If you're going to cut off Russian gas, DONT shut down all your nuke plants and chase some fantasy of a complete green energy transition by Christmas.
First world countries haven't had any real problems for decades and think they can spend their way out of every bad situation. This is real and we will see how bad things can get.
I really want to see a back test of that arrow
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
What are those four lines?
Looks like the arrow is pointed at the lowest one?
Looks like the arrow is pointed at the lowest one?
SF2004 said:
What are those four lines?
Looks like the arrow is pointed at the lowest one?
21ema in the gap.
Edit: the white are SRs I have alerts set at.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
I have a few Jan VIX 26 calls. I'm been trying to sell shorter dated calls against them in an effort to collect some premium but my brokerage (TD) isn't letting me.
Anyone else able to sell calls against their further dated VIX calls? (I've been able to do it on any other options, but wondering if this is something unique to VIX).
Anyone else able to sell calls against their further dated VIX calls? (I've been able to do it on any other options, but wondering if this is something unique to VIX).
To answer your first question yeah, Freeport liquifies natural gas so you can put it on special ships to send to Europe and Asia. Prices are $50 or so per Mcf there and about $6 per Mcf in the US. We are lucky here in the US to have it so cheap. If Freeport is closed, all that gas stays here in the US and drives domestic prices lower.
FJ43 said:
I really want to see a back test of that arrow
This looks almost like a Diamond top or some sort of pattern.
rounded top if you switch time frame of the candles. still bearish though
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