Man I'm so low tech. If it's a model t down i grab the support level before the move, subtract the bottom of the move, divide by 2 and add the bottom tick back in. I think this gives me a more conservative MT than most use but lets me sell into strength as we approach it
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Charismatic Megafauna
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AG
CC09LawAg said:
I think a big part of my problem is I started right during this energy run up and basically doubled my "fun money" in month one and got a way overinflated ego. And now I get my serving of humble pie.
If I can land somewhere in between consistently I'll be happy. But you're spot on - when things start to go haywire I don't have any organizing principles or plan to help me refocus.
I think I am going to scale way back on position sizes for a few weeks and focus on the % of my plays and not the actual $$.
Thanks for the response on your recent trading. I appreciate the insight.
What you're experiencing is normal for newer traders. Better to learn with your 'fun money' than your net worth. It's cheap education towards a lifetime of return.
Always remember it's just a transaction. It's not personal. There will always be another one. A buyer and a seller. Price and how many (volume) are willing to buy or sell at a certain level. Losses will happen. Mitigating losses is key. My 2 cents….trade very small and don't focus on the $. Focus if you got the trade setup right and executed it right.
As 'H' responded you need to determine a method. There are so many different ways, indicators, etc to trade but most importantly is one that you can execute with great discipline. Refine it continually.
Years ago I posted a list of my personal scalping and trading rules on the board here. Simple straight forward list. I simply trade the markets and manage risk. I take profits, cut losers and don't try to time a bottom or top. Get the meat of the trade is all. I'm not a fan of draw down and see no reason to allow it. The mental discipline is the hardest part for newer traders. Trading in itself is easy, it's simply if this then that. But the mental game, FOMO and poor risk management are what craters most.
Keep at it. You need to be a committed disciple of this or you're just guessing and gambling. Only seat time and intentional effort will result in consistency over the long haul.
There are some solid traders on this board and will help you in any way.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
CC09LawAg said:
What is the easiest way to chart model T, particularly in trading view? What specific data points do I need to be looking at?
The high (top) + the low (bottom) of the range. The mid point is Model T. Works on any time period. A single day, multiple days, etc, etc. It's an easy quick calculation. Fibonacci tool will get you a quick reference on TV.
Edit: go to page 1 of this forum. First post. Model T is explained there by OA. There are also a few other references, tools, webinars, etc on the first post.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
Is the model T just another way of describing the Fibonacci retracement?
50% fib
Here are two discrete 50% fib setups from yesterday. Chart is busy obviously, but you can scalp off of this.
I don't personally use this intraday, but perhaps I should.
The key is to wait for confirmation. Probably at least a 5 minute low, preferably 15
I don't personally use this intraday, but perhaps I should.
The key is to wait for confirmation. Probably at least a 5 minute low, preferably 15
If you were trading this intraday, you would enter around 11:45 and you would set your stop just below the current low of day.
I decided to chart with 7 DTE vs 0 DTE, but I'll chart 0 DTE in a second.
A model T exit would have been around 12:30. You would have risked approximately $30 per contract for $40 gain at the 50% fib.
I decided to chart with 7 DTE vs 0 DTE, but I'll chart 0 DTE in a second.
A model T exit would have been around 12:30. You would have risked approximately $30 per contract for $40 gain at the 50% fib.
This is 0 DTE. If you compare the two you can see the theta decay difference and the end of day exponential boost once it goes in the money. Your stop has to be wider with 0 DTE, but this is how you would trade it.
Entry around $5, stop around $2.5, take profit at $10.
These trades are much harder to manage than giving yourself some time.
Entry around $5, stop around $2.5, take profit at $10.
These trades are much harder to manage than giving yourself some time.
Charismatic Megafauna
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Maybe i place too much importance on engulfing candles but that action like your charts show from 11:45-noon usually pushes me off.
Charismatic Megafauna said:
Maybe i place too much importance on engulfing candles but that action like your charts show from 11:45-noon usually pushes me off.
On a 5 minute option chart?
There are a couple of other factors to consider: 1) the macro. The 3950 line held well. It's been tested a lot now though and I'm not sure it will hold another serious attempt. 2) you have to think in terms of probabilities.
Charismatic Megafauna
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Cool thanks. Again, I'm playing peewee league over here so i just see engulfing (on any time frame) and I'm like "ooh, rejected! Fake move! " (unless it's on the 1min and i consider the possibility that it could be a stop loss raid)
Rest assured I am working hard this weekend and have not slept since yesterday here is my master road map for $SPY next week.
— John Kent (@KentsBrokerage) November 19, 2022
Every possible scenario has been mapped out good luck to all of you. pic.twitter.com/VnlHnvk0SP
What's funny is there's a decent trader on the fintwit named "yourboymilt" and one of his trade systems is marking a day high and low line on every day for the past year. Looks about like that zoomed out, but gives you some good S/R zones when zoomed in intraday.sts7049 said:Rest assured I am working hard this weekend and have not slept since yesterday here is my master road map for $SPY next week.
— John Kent (@KentsBrokerage) November 19, 2022
Every possible scenario has been mapped out good luck to all of you. pic.twitter.com/VnlHnvk0SP
sts7049 said:Rest assured I am working hard this weekend and have not slept since yesterday here is my master road map for $SPY next week.
— John Kent (@KentsBrokerage) November 19, 2022
Every possible scenario has been mapped out good luck to all of you. pic.twitter.com/VnlHnvk0SP
That's when I hit the little remove all trend lines and start over.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
LOL, I'm starting to get there. I figure thanksgiving will be a good spot to remove all the old lines and just have the recent ones in. But it's been a game changer for me charting myself and not trying to rely on others, usually just chart daily highs and lows, and other areas of interest, model T etc.irish pete ag06 said:What's funny is there's a decent trader on the fintwit named "yourboymilt" and one of his trade systems is marking a day high and low line on every day for the past year. Looks about like that zoomed out, but gives you some good S/R zones when zoomed in intraday.sts7049 said:Rest assured I am working hard this weekend and have not slept since yesterday here is my master road map for $SPY next week.
— John Kent (@KentsBrokerage) November 19, 2022
Every possible scenario has been mapped out good luck to all of you. pic.twitter.com/VnlHnvk0SP
I've started to dabble in TradingView Scripts, and I wonderered how hard it would be to make one that did this automatically.
I was able to find a script that allows you to leave an EMA cloud on your chart locked in to a certain time frame. I set it to be on the 8/21 daily EMA.
I was able to find a script that allows you to leave an EMA cloud on your chart locked in to a certain time frame. I set it to be on the 8/21 daily EMA.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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ProgN said:
Holy *****
As most of you know my primary brokerage is IBKR and use that for about 99% of all trading.
However you may also notice I use Trading View for easy charting that's user friendly.
Maybe some of y'all know this but, if you establish your first SR on your own, use the three dot drop and and hit clone, it will add the next leg up SR. Rinse and repeat the next line and so on.
They are pretty close but I still verify with my own methods I've posted.
Just a tip for y'all if you didn't know already.
However you may also notice I use Trading View for easy charting that's user friendly.
Maybe some of y'all know this but, if you establish your first SR on your own, use the three dot drop and and hit clone, it will add the next leg up SR. Rinse and repeat the next line and so on.
They are pretty close but I still verify with my own methods I've posted.
Just a tip for y'all if you didn't know already.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
SR?
irish pete ag06 said:
SR?
Support and Resistance level
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
Ah yes... I did that on there. Wonder what parameters the use to clone that?FJ43 said:irish pete ag06 said:
SR?
Support and Resistance level
damn noobs, hahaha, just giving you a hard time PeteFJ43 said:irish pete ag06 said:
SR?
Support and Resistance level
Haha dammit!
I was so caught up on TV, I was thinking it was some type of tool on there. Haha
I was so caught up on TV, I was thinking it was some type of tool on there. Haha
Some interesting predictions about the VIX here as we close out the year.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559258-fed-minutes-may-deliver-massive-blow-to-stock-market
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559258-fed-minutes-may-deliver-massive-blow-to-stock-market
Quote:
It will be a holiday-shortened trading week, but it will not be short on news events. The massive news event will come on Wednesday at 2 PM with the release of the November Fed minutes. These minutes will likely reverse the equity market's celebration following a lower-than-expected October CPI report, as the Fed has a different view and is already pushing back hard.
…
Additionally, the VIX should rise sharply heading into the FOMC meeting on December 14. Not on worries over a 50 or 75 bps rate hike but due to concerns over the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections and the committee's dot plot for terminal rate for the end of 2023.
In fact, throughout 2022, there has been a pattern of the VIX rising or falling into the FOMC meeting following the market's perception of the Fed minutes. Currently, the VIX is trading towards the lower end of its trading range, around 23. The last time the VIX was this low heading into the release of the FOMC minutes came back on August 17, which also marked the end of the August rally and was followed by a sharp rise in the VIX and a very sharp decline in the S&P 500. The same thing also happened at the beginning of April, which also marked the end of the March rally, and early January, which marked the market peak.
…
The Fed has been telling the market all year that it intended to raise rates aggressively and wanted financial conditions to tighten. Yes, there have been countertrend rallies along the way, but if one thing is clear, the Fed has been committed to higher rates. If the minutes do not deliver that message this week, Powell will be sure to do on November 30 what he did on August 26 at Jackson Hole, putting the hammer down on the equity market again.
techno-ag said:
Some interesting predictions about the VIX here as we close out the year.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559258-fed-minutes-may-deliver-massive-blow-to-stock-marketQuote:
It will be a holiday-shortened trading week, but it will not be short on news events. The massive news event will come on Wednesday at 2 PM with the release of the November Fed minutes. These minutes will likely reverse the equity market's celebration following a lower-than-expected October CPI report, as the Fed has a different view and is already pushing back hard.
…
Additionally, the VIX should rise sharply heading into the FOMC meeting on December 14. Not on worries over a 50 or 75 bps rate hike but due to concerns over the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections and the committee's dot plot for terminal rate for the end of 2023.
In fact, throughout 2022, there has been a pattern of the VIX rising or falling into the FOMC meeting following the market's perception of the Fed minutes. Currently, the VIX is trading towards the lower end of its trading range, around 23. The last time the VIX was this low heading into the release of the FOMC minutes came back on August 17, which also marked the end of the August rally and was followed by a sharp rise in the VIX and a very sharp decline in the S&P 500. The same thing also happened at the beginning of April, which also marked the end of the March rally, and early January, which marked the market peak.
…
The Fed has been telling the market all year that it intended to raise rates aggressively and wanted financial conditions to tighten. Yes, there have been countertrend rallies along the way, but if one thing is clear, the Fed has been committed to higher rates. If the minutes do not deliver that message this week, Powell will be sure to do on November 30 what he did on August 26 at Jackson Hole, putting the hammer down on the equity market again.
Thanks for posting that. I'm long net free VIX calls for Dec monthly expiry. Will watch next week as I posted Friday to adjust if it's there.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
TLDR: The author thinks if the market does not react appropriately according to the Fed's wishes that Powell will try to tank it Nov. 30.
FJ43 said:techno-ag said:
Some interesting predictions about the VIX here as we close out the year.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559258-fed-minutes-may-deliver-massive-blow-to-stock-marketQuote:
It will be a holiday-shortened trading week, but it will not be short on news events. The massive news event will come on Wednesday at 2 PM with the release of the November Fed minutes. These minutes will likely reverse the equity market's celebration following a lower-than-expected October CPI report, as the Fed has a different view and is already pushing back hard.
…
Additionally, the VIX should rise sharply heading into the FOMC meeting on December 14. Not on worries over a 50 or 75 bps rate hike but due to concerns over the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections and the committee's dot plot for terminal rate for the end of 2023.
In fact, throughout 2022, there has been a pattern of the VIX rising or falling into the FOMC meeting following the market's perception of the Fed minutes. Currently, the VIX is trading towards the lower end of its trading range, around 23. The last time the VIX was this low heading into the release of the FOMC minutes came back on August 17, which also marked the end of the August rally and was followed by a sharp rise in the VIX and a very sharp decline in the S&P 500. The same thing also happened at the beginning of April, which also marked the end of the March rally, and early January, which marked the market peak.
…
The Fed has been telling the market all year that it intended to raise rates aggressively and wanted financial conditions to tighten. Yes, there have been countertrend rallies along the way, but if one thing is clear, the Fed has been committed to higher rates. If the minutes do not deliver that message this week, Powell will be sure to do on November 30 what he did on August 26 at Jackson Hole, putting the hammer down on the equity market again.
Thanks for posting that. I'm long net free VIX calls for Dec monthly expiry. Will watch next week as I posted Friday to adjust if it's there.
I'm holding some VIX 29C expiring in January. Sure wouldn't mind a small rip to go net free.
looks like seasonally, he should get his wish. Helps him too, that we're near resistance, long term. I think Monday or Tuesday we gap up and run into Wednesday.techno-ag said:
TLDR: The author thinks if the market does not react appropriately according to the Fed's wishes that Powell will try to tank it Nov. 30.
sorry for OT:
for those in B/CS, where do you get firewood? I mean good dry, firewood, at least oak, but I'd buy hickory too if I can get it.
We have a firepit, but also have a smoker that I'd use the hickory in.
happy thanksgiving and many thanks in advance!
for those in B/CS, where do you get firewood? I mean good dry, firewood, at least oak, but I'd buy hickory too if I can get it.
We have a firepit, but also have a smoker that I'd use the hickory in.
happy thanksgiving and many thanks in advance!
I am shorting crude futures. Stop 80.9. Target 78.9
$30,000 Millionaire said:
I am shorting crude futures. Stop 80.9. Target 78.9
You have a trading problem.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
80.09
Ugh, passion.
And how can you not short this?!?
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