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FJ43
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In reply to ProgN • 5:42p, 11/4/22
ProgN said:
FTR, if you were trekking through Louisiana any other time and not to pay your last respects, then you'd be picking up some real jambalaya and crayfish etouffee for me. Just saying. I love real Cajun food from hole in wall places that's cooked by Big Mama. That was the best part of playing LSU in BR in '92 & '94. Great food and we beat them in Death Valley.


Bro you know I would. The food there is about all that's good. I love Cajun food and usually try and pick up boudin every time I pass through.
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ProgN
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In reply to FJ43 • 5:47p, 11/4/22
BlueTaze
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6:13p, 11/4/22
In 1st half of 2021 Powell said he was "not thinking about thinking about raising rates". In 2nd half of 2021 he said he would "not raise rates on inflation fears alone". Today he is basically saying he is not thinking about thinking about cutting rates, and that inflation fears are the primary reason for going even higher terminal rate.

Not saying to fight the Fed, but max dovishness was great time to cash out. Hard to argue we aren't at max hawkish rhetoric these days.
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M4 Benelli
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In reply to Ragoo • 6:16p, 11/4/22
Ragoo said:
Down $4500 for the week. I had a really really bad Monday and Tuesday. Had two trades go from quick green to red without stops in place.

Only made 6 trades this week. 3/6 with a pretty good rally the last two days. Started the week 0/3 and finished 3/3.


My port stroked out harder than Fetterman with my faux diamond handing of CVNA. Derp analyst said it was worth 10 cents and some bazooka joe. Truth be told, the fundies on this make about as much sense as gender re-assignment, yet I held on like Stallone in Cliffhanger. Eric Qualen kicked my pick and sent me tumbling, "yoooooo Mick, cut me and these losers in which I hold."

Ended up cutting GSL for a loss, shipping is as dead as an addressee on a mail in ballot. Holding CVNArse until next week on a hope for a retrace.

Sticking with depressed value fundies after this hiccup. Only held CVNA after being green goggled by swinging it like Paul Bunyun thrice times over. The adage it works until it doesnt held true at -40% on the day. Why didnt I cut at open you ask? Twas dead asleep for the first 6hours of trading lulz. Working at night and holding fetid stocks dont mix. Put in for a schedule change by end of the year, should end up being better positioned on entries and exits off that alone.

All you can do is laugh, and take it on the chin ala Gurriel. What sucks is I was raking in base hits for the past several weeks, and all those gains were wiped away in a sombre nocturne.

TLDR, Smile Now, Cry Later.
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jimmo
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In reply to FJ43 • 6:36p, 11/4/22
FJ43 said:
Thanks to everyone for the prayers. Will be beside Mrs FJ as she grieves the loss of her dad. She appreciates the prayers.
Prayers sent. My condolences to you and your family.
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BlueTaze
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In reply to M4 Benelli • 6:37p, 11/4/22
I'm with you on CVNA...deep red on some $40 calls, but loaded some Jan $20 calls for .45 today. Lotto type money.
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ProgN
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In reply to BlueTaze • 6:48p, 11/4/22
BlueTaze said:
In 1st half of 2021 Powell said he was "not thinking about thinking about raising rates". In 2nd half of 2021 he said he would "not raise rates on inflation fears alone". Today he is basically saying he is not thinking about thinking about cutting rates, and that inflation fears are the primary reason for going even higher terminal rate.

Not saying to fight the Fed, but max dovishness was great time to cash out. Hard to argue we aren't at max hawkish rhetoric these days.
Powell realized way after the horse left the barn that he should've started raising rates in 3Q & 4Q of 2021. Hell, iirc, a few posters on this thread said as much at that time. IDC enough to go back and look, but I'm pretty sure I'm right. Now he's trying to catch up, but he will horribly overshoot. It reeks of desperation. Two wrongs don't make a right and he's created a huge debt bomb down our future path. Credit card debt is exploding because people are using them for groceries and fuel, not luxuries. They're trying to keep their heads above water to weather the storm but it's not going to work. Credit card interest rates jump with each fed meeting. Defaults are rising because the minimum monthly payment is something they can't afford. They're also at or approaching their credit limit. This is unsustainable and will explode, bankruptcies will begin to rise at a huge pace. Hard times are ahead because our economy is consumer driven and a ton of people won't have the credit to purchase things which will lead to more layoffs.

The most effective defense to this inflationary nightmare is cheap energy but dems will never use it because they're beholden to this bull**** green sustainable energy. If they'd pass a bill that protected the O&G industry from ignorant radical environmentalists and ESG scores for 50 years, then companies would expand. They should also make it easier to build more refineries, finish Keystone and tell the EPA to GFY. They won't do this, so we're pretty much ****ed.

Remember this when you have a friend or family member say they're not going to vote because their vote doesn't matter, it does.
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BlueTaze
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In reply to ProgN • 6:54p, 11/4/22
Agree.

I also think one major thing no one talks about is the BS Fauci narrative that suppressed info on natural immunity and other treatments that ultimately helped manage the pandemic. I think the Fed bought into the gov authorities fear tactics, instead of a more objective fact based forecast on pandemic, that likely would have led to a more reasonable QE response.

The left and the Fed over reacted. That's why we have inflation, not supply chain disruptions or war.
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ProgN
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In reply to BlueTaze • 7:03p, 11/4/22
Everyone and everything is political, especially today.

If our clubhouse friends saw inflation on the horizon and called for incremental rate hikes, then you can't tell me the f'ing fed didn't see it. Powell was up for renomination and I suspect didn't start to raise when he should've because he wanted to remain chairman. Now everyone is paying for that.
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lobwedgephil
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In reply to BlueTaze • 8:01p, 11/4/22
BlueTaze said:
In 1st half of 2021 Powell said he was "not thinking about thinking about raising rates". In 2nd half of 2021 he said he would "not raise rates on inflation fears alone". Today he is basically saying he is not thinking about thinking about cutting rates, and that inflation fears are the primary reason for going even higher terminal rate.

Not saying to fight the Fed, but max dovishness was great time to cash out. Hard to argue we aren't at max hawkish rhetoric these days.
Good observation, but historically you don't get a bottom until the Fed pivots, and bottom is typically after pivot.
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irish pete ag06
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In reply to M4 Benelli • 8:04p, 11/4/22
AG
As usual, you're posts make my brain happy.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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8:04p, 11/4/22
AG
I have nothing to add other than my regret that I didn't full maximum margin short CVNA.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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irish pete ag06
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8:07p, 11/4/22
AG
Fellas, I gotta say. I feel close.

I'm focused on trading 1 setup. I am taking less trades. I have built a checklist that I must check off each box or I don't take the trade.

I am matching time into trade on the timeframe where the setup presents itself. (meaning if I use the 1 minute chart I do not stay in long, etc).

I won small this week and I've been hitting eject faster if the setup fails.

If I hadn't have had to go sing freakin happy birthday today for someone on the 1st floor I hardly ever even see it would have been a hell of a week (missed a 10 bagger on XSP).

Anyways. I appreciate this thread. Yal are like extended family.
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ProgN
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In reply to irish pete ag06 • 8:18p, 11/4/22


Good job and keep learning. Pain engrains the best lessons, just use mistakes to become better. We've all made them. This thread is like family, and why it's the best thread on TexAgs.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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8:22p, 11/4/22
AG
Fake breakdown should be everyone's main setup.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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irish pete ag06
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 9:16p, 11/4/22
AG
Is this essentially a red dog reversal?
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wanderer
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 9:19p, 11/4/22
Feel free to expand on that if you get a minute.

You mainly looking intraday? Daily?
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SoTXAg09
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11:03p, 11/4/22
AG
30k is probably talking about Mancinis main setup, which is a fake breakout or breakdown. He talks about it basically daily in his newsletter. It's similar to an RDR, but it's intraday as Mancini is a day trader.

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Brewmaster
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 11:10p, 11/4/22
AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:
Fake breakdown should be everyone's main setup.
Amen. Mancini's favorite as well I think. Your trade early and late mantra has helped me a lot. I'll take 1 great setup, usually right after open or in the first hour (if it's there) and 1 or 2 end of day, in power hour and not much else.

Irish Pete we're in the same boat. Cutting the losers quick, like you said is helping me a ton too. I also quit trying to follow others levels and am charting my own - lots of previous day's lows/ highs and other key levels.

I think Bob Knight's said it great the other night: your trades should be small losers, small winners and big winners. and I'll add, you can have 6 small losers, 3 small winners and 1 big win - that's batting .400 with a dinger and making money!

Have a great weekend fam!
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$30,000 Millionaire
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11:18p, 11/4/22
AG
There were two today. I caught part of one.


You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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Charismatic Megafauna
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In reply to Brewmaster • 7:00a, 11/5/22
AG
Man you just described my focus this week. Was ruthless with stops, made some good trades early, but several times i decided to make an afternoon trade after a great morning and threw away some gains. Also on using my own levels, i throw mancini's major levels on the chart but add opening price, orl, orh, hod, lod, prev day close and overnight h/l if they seem significant, then start trying to identify channels. Orl would have worked great yesterday if i had followed fj and gone long when we broke back into opening range. Another thing that i am finding works for me is to only trade the trend side of the channel, i.e. don't play long at the bottom of the channel, only play short at resistance. Seems like a lot of people had a lot of trouble this week but i made a couple bucks and am feeling closer to putting it all together finally.
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Charismatic Megafauna
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In reply to Ragoo • 8:04a, 11/5/22
AG
Ragoo said:
Bob Knights Paper Hands said:
irish pete ag06 said:
I must be too slow when it get above EMAs because I feel like my entries sucked. So then I'd try to cut quick.

This is something this board helped me with tremendously. It was one or more of OA, FJ, 30k, or Foggy that got me to think more about playing the bounce off the pullback. Now I feel confident with 2 entries. Sometimes I may feel confident that I'm an early bird and I'll get in, but often I'll wait for the retest of a pivot, MA, or other resistance that now may be support. Sometimes I'll use both entries as a way to pyramid in as my confidence on the trade grows.

I've missed moves doing that, but I've limited losses as well and it's helped lower the volatility of my trading performance and ultimately helped me close more green days.
if SPX opens up it will usually retest the 21 on the minute chart within the first 30 minutes. It is important to wait for that retest and a few minutes of capitulation. You can usually load +50 point calls for a quick $1-2 on the next move up. Cut if it loses the ema. If it loses if will typically bottom around lunch. Trade the initial retest bounce and a post lunch rally. Been the trend the last several weeks.

I had copied this post into my notes and just compared it to yesterday's action. Nails.
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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In reply to irish pete ag06 • 8:16a, 11/5/22
Just know that after running well for a bit, you're going to go through a rough patch. Things will turn to **** and you'll question if you even know what you're doing. That's normal. Just tweek your approach, cut your position sizes in half or less, and keep going.
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BlueTaze
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8:50a, 11/5/22


Interesting to note there was a decent bounce after crossover and before the big decline, especially in 2001. So maybe we see 4000-4200ish before all the QT chickens come home to roost. But that said, the Fed today is much more of an interventionist so hard to see that big and long of a decline IMO. Guess that's why it's good to just trade lvl to lvl.
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FJ43
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In reply to irish pete ag06 • 9:39a, 11/5/22
irish pete ag06 said:
Is this essentially a red dog reversal?


No on SPY/ES.
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irish pete ag06
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In reply to FJ43 • 9:54a, 11/5/22
AG
I guess I don't follow. I figured failed breakdown or breakout could be used on just about any stock or index

I was just thinking what Scott Redler calls a RDR buy or sell is the same thing in theory.
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BaylorSpineGuy
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10:24a, 11/5/22
I suspect the market is not gonna rally bin the red wave. I have some theories why that may or may not be why it doesn't, but everyone and their dog said it's gonna rally after
Midterms, so that makes the most sense to me that' it's gonna puke.

We have what's pretty close to a tweezer top on SPY weekly charts, so suspect there will be some follow through or an inside week next week followed by a leg down.

Some people I know are already tax loss harvesting and that's only gonna stack as we approach year end, so also worth considering.
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FJ43
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In reply to irish pete ag06 • 11:58a, 11/5/22
irish pete ag06 said:
I guess I don't follow. I figured failed breakdown or breakout could be used on just about any stock or index

I was just thinking what Scott Redler calls a RDR buy or sell is the same thing in theory.

Failed breakdown is different. RDR is a specific price movement. Opens above prior close, trades below prior low and recovers above.

Works in reverse also for bearish move. Both typically follow a multi day move in the direction.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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12:58p, 11/5/22
AG
I know we have some coders in here. My coding days are behind me, but I could certainly figure it out.

Someone should make a trading view script for RDR identification.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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1:06p, 11/5/22
AG
Red Dog Reversal


You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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1:49p, 11/5/22
AG
Question for the health insurance experts: hypothetically, if your company didn't subsidize health insurance premiums meaningfully, is there any reason not to use an HDHP with a max funded HSA?
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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AgPT06
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 2:07p, 11/5/22
AG
If no employer assist, it only makes sense to do HDHP and HSA.
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ProgN
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5:46p, 11/5/22


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sts7049
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5:49p, 11/5/22
AG
so how do we know those aren't just up for auction?
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ProgN
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In reply to sts7049 • 6:18p, 11/5/22
We don't but repos are increasing in several states. It's going to get a lot worse. Buyers market for new or newer pre-owned for qualified buyers in about 9 months.
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