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what say you
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FJ43 said:

irish pete ag06 said:

Wish I had more powder available for real estate in the next few years. New job may help with that.
I'll never forget one of the statements my mentor made to me regarding real estate wealth.

"Son…you dont make money the day you sell it, you make it the day you buy it."


What does this actually mean? What if the deal goes horribly bad and you lose your a**?
Heineken-Ashi
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what say you said:

FJ43 said:

irish pete ag06 said:

Wish I had more powder available for real estate in the next few years. New job may help with that.
I'll never forget one of the statements my mentor made to me regarding real estate wealth.

"Son…you dont make money the day you sell it, you make it the day you buy it."


What does this actually mean? What if the deal goes horribly bad and you lose your a**?


You'll know long before it goes bad if you're the type of guy who can screw up making a profit after buying during a major price reset event.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Charismatic Megafauna
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AG
Yeah you don't lose your ass at the back end of a real estate deal, you lose it at the front end by insufficient diligence, fomo, poor planning, etc, just like in the markets
Bonfire1996
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AG
what say you said:

FJ43 said:

irish pete ag06 said:

Wish I had more powder available for real estate in the next few years. New job may help with that.
I'll never forget one of the statements my mentor made to me regarding real estate wealth.

"Son…you dont make money the day you sell it, you make it the day you buy it."


What does this actually mean? What if the deal goes horribly bad and you lose your a**?
It means a keen eye for a good deal when you purchase it leads to large gains.

For example, here in hill country, and older house was for sale on Verde Creek in Center Point on 14 acres for $679,000. Real shltty house with an unworkable floor plan.

BUT……

The house sits on 3, count them three, already platted, subdivided lots on Verde Creek. Great water that flows into the Guadalupe about 250 yards away.

2.5 acres vacant
5 acres with house
6.5 acres vacant

An investor bought it, did a little deferred maintenance, and now they will sell each property separately and net about $1.1 million.

Investor didn't make that money when he sold it, he made that money when he bought it, knowing what he could do.
BaylorSpineGuy
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My friend's script is holding perfectly. He's calling for the several day red waterfall like we saw June 9-13. Thinks 3400 from here. I'm gonna load up more OTM puts at the open.

Let's get it.
Bonfire1996
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AG
BREwmaster said:

Bonfire1996 said:

VIX isn't going to hit the high point till the SPR drain is stopped. Then heads up
still bullish on real estate for 2022/23? the talk above this post had me thinking about it. but it only makes sense that they can't keep rates high for long.
Yes, but not yet. These rates are in the process of crushing values on income producing properties. Can't make much return when the banks start making 8-9%. Those values WILL come down, big time.

Remember, MOST (like 75% or more) investment properties are bought with short term ARM financing. 3-5 year fixed rates, only, then floating at a rate over Prime or Treasuries. These people bought these properties and paid 4-5% on initial rates and their adjustments will be between 8%-10%!!!! That kills Net Operating Income and makes deals unprofitable.

Sell it quick to get your negative returning equity back. More sellers than buyers (with rates high less buyers) leads to downward pressure on price.

Tourist areas by you are in for trouble.
Red Pear Luke (BCS)
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Sponsor
AG
Bonfire1996 said:

BREwmaster said:

Bonfire1996 said:

VIX isn't going to hit the high point till the SPR drain is stopped. Then heads up
still bullish on real estate for 2022/23? the talk above this post had me thinking about it. but it only makes sense that they can't keep rates high for long.
Yes, but not yet. These rates are in the process of crushing values on income producing properties. Can't make much return when the banks start making 8-9%. Those values WILL come down, big time.

Remember, MOST (like 75% or more) investment properties are bought with short term ARM financing. 3-5 year fixed rates, only, then floating at a rate over Prime or Treasuries. These people bought these properties and paid 4-5% on initial rates and their adjustments will be between 8%-10%!!!! That kills Net Operating Income and makes deals unprofitable.

Sell it quick to get your negative returning equity back. More sellers than buyers (with rates high less buyers) leads to downward pressure on price.

Tourist areas by you are in for trouble.
This is why as an investor - I recommend you always underwrite to at least a 1.35 - 1.40x DSCR on your deals, even if your required debt coverage is lower at 1.25x, throw the extra funds into an account and let it sit there until it builds up a solid reserve.

Seems abusive, but if you're using ARM or having debt due in short term and don't plan on selling, you'll be glad to know that you have the extra coverage in the cashflow to support higher loan costs.

Spoony Love
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AG
I don't know man. That would put SPY squarely in the middle of a downward channel on my chart that it popped out of on Oct 24. Truly would be looking at a bottom if so.
BlueTaze
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BaylorSpineGuy said:

My friend's script is holding perfectly. He's calling for the several day red waterfall like we saw June 9-13. Thinks 3400 from here. I'm gonna load up more OTM puts at the open.

Let's get it.


How "deep" were his OTM puts expiring tmrw?
If a 12% down move was needed for profit, we need an absolute bloodbath today and tmrw.....but who knows, if they weren't too far OTM he could already be sitting good after yesterday.
Spoony Love
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I could see some next week deep OTM puts play but not tomorrow. Even if it's bad today, I don't think we go below 360
BaylorSpineGuy
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BlueTaze said:

BaylorSpineGuy said:

My friend's script is holding perfectly. He's calling for the several day red waterfall like we saw June 9-13. Thinks 3400 from here. I'm gonna load up more OTM puts at the open.

Let's get it.


How "deep" were his OTM puts expiring tmrw?
If a 12% down move was needed for profit, we need an absolute bloodbath today and tmrw.....but who knows, if they weren't too far OTM he could already be sitting good after yesterday.


He had 6 total trades and 4 were ITM at close yesterday. He had outliers at 372 and 362, if I recall right.

He's holding out till at least 3500 lol.
BPCAg05
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AG
https://www.cassavasciences.com/news-releases/news-release-details/cassava-sciences-files-lawsuit-against-perpetrators-short-and
Charismatic Megafauna
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AG
I grabbed a couple mara calls for nov 18
FTAG 2000
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BPCAg05 said:

https://www.cassavasciences.com/news-releases/news-release-details/cassava-sciences-files-lawsuit-against-perpetrators-short-and


This means they have the goods on their data / trials, right?

Txducker
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AG
BaylorSpineGuy said:

My friend's script is holding perfectly. He's calling for the several day red waterfall like we saw June 9-13. Thinks 3400 from here. I'm gonna load up more OTM puts at the open.

Let's get it.
es: I like this. ~3500 was October low and that needs to be tested and I am holding spxu (short spy) hoping for that. I started buying last Friday. I had also bought started buying spy 1104P275. I sold those those at the close Wed for a good trade. Not a great trade because I bought too early and did not like my execution, which is why I sold all my puts and didn't hold overnight. Those puts really would have looked good at todays open. Monthly and Weekly chart still has the 5ema below the 10. Today the daily might flip to the 5ema below the 10 and then I add more spxu.
Charismatic Megafauna
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Also crwd dec9
BlueTaze
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LUMN misses and gaps down....might be a good model T bounce candidate soon.
jimmo
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in on some Gold leaps @ 0.63
Spoony Love
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Grabbed 11/11 XOM 115C. Seems like a no brainer for either a scalp or hold till expiry
cryption
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I'm on a 12/2 113c
Golf1
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AG
Got busy at work and missed my exit on XOM… one thing I've noticed with this stock is the movement in the morning and then seems to sell of or flatline throughout the day. Here's to hoping it decides to go up again.
Diggity
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Bonfire1996 said:

BREwmaster said:

Bonfire1996 said:

VIX isn't going to hit the high point till the SPR drain is stopped. Then heads up
still bullish on real estate for 2022/23? the talk above this post had me thinking about it. but it only makes sense that they can't keep rates high for long.
Yes, but not yet. These rates are in the process of crushing values on income producing properties. Can't make much return when the banks start making 8-9%. Those values WILL come down, big time.

Remember, MOST (like 75% or more) investment properties are bought with short term ARM financing. 3-5 year fixed rates, only, then floating at a rate over Prime or Treasuries. These people bought these properties and paid 4-5% on initial rates and their adjustments will be between 8%-10%!!!! That kills Net Operating Income and makes deals unprofitable.

Sell it quick to get your negative returning equity back. More sellers than buyers (with rates high less buyers) leads to downward pressure on price.

Tourist areas by you are in for trouble.
where are you getting this info? that seems very high.
Bonfire1996
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If y'all have time, help me with a theory.

Given: Inflation is high and everyone knows it
Given: Current Workers know that they have to work to be able to live given high inflation
Given: 10 million job openings in USA currently, and staying steady

If the above is true, and the FED has stated that employment must be crushed before inflation can subside. Wages are up 7.7% which directly leads to inflation as increased money drives prices higher with stagnant supply. If all that is true, when companies like GOOGL who says they're laying off 20% of their workforce, won't those 20% and other layoffs transition to one of those 10 million open jobs because they have to work to afford inflation?

So don't we need employment to get crushed and those 10 million job openings to disappear before we see stabilization in inflation?

If so, holy shlt.
Bonfire1996
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AG
Diggity said:

Bonfire1996 said:

BREwmaster said:

Bonfire1996 said:

VIX isn't going to hit the high point till the SPR drain is stopped. Then heads up
still bullish on real estate for 2022/23? the talk above this post had me thinking about it. but it only makes sense that they can't keep rates high for long.
Yes, but not yet. These rates are in the process of crushing values on income producing properties. Can't make much return when the banks start making 8-9%. Those values WILL come down, big time.

Remember, MOST (like 75% or more) investment properties are bought with short term ARM financing. 3-5 year fixed rates, only, then floating at a rate over Prime or Treasuries. These people bought these properties and paid 4-5% on initial rates and their adjustments will be between 8%-10%!!!! That kills Net Operating Income and makes deals unprofitable.

Sell it quick to get your negative returning equity back. More sellers than buyers (with rates high less buyers) leads to downward pressure on price.

Tourist areas by you are in for trouble.
where are you getting this info? that seems very high.
Im a banker. The investment property loan programs for long term fixed rates aren't plentiful. It isn't like a Fannie Mae mortgage for a primary residence with super easy qualifications.
ProgN
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Stripe plans to lay off 14% of workers (cnbc.com)
Quote:

Online payments giant Stripe plans to lay off roughly 14% of its staff, CEO Patrick Collison wrote in a memo to staff Thursday.
Bonfire1996
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Exactly my point Prog. Normies and press will say these layoffs need to happen so the fed takes their foot off the brakes. But doesn't that 10 million job opening number have to disappear before unemployment can rise?
docaggie
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FTAG 2000 said:

BPCAg05 said:

https://www.cassavasciences.com/news-releases/news-release-details/cassava-sciences-files-lawsuit-against-perpetrators-short-and


This means they have the goods on their data / trials, right?


Cassava Sciences, Inc. (NASDAQ:SAVA), a clinical-stage biotechnology company, today announced that it has filed a lawsuit in federal court against certain individuals who executed a "short and distort" campaign against the Company. The 150+ page complaint alleges that the Defendants' disinformation campaign caused a precipitous decline in Cassava Sciences' stock price, a multi-billion dollar decline in its market capitalization, and delayed the Company's work in developing a treatment for Alzheimer's disease.



I've also seen physicians who have relatives in the trials remark on how well it's working for their loved ones.
But, as with anything, we shall see. Physicians are not immune to being blinded by hope.
Class of 1998;
Husband of an Aggie, Class of 1999;
Father to future Class of 2029 and 2031
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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I was 1 for 3 in failed counter trend reversals, but caught that big one almost at the bottom with SPX calls. I scalped a little with SPX puts to make a little change. I'm green for the day, but not by much.

My goodness this market is tough to trade. Gone are the days we could identify a trend, set stops, and just let it ride all day or for multiple days.
bigtoneag
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AG
Bonfire1996 said:

Exactly my point Prog. Normies and press will say these layoffs need to happen so the fed takes their foot off the brakes. But doesn't that 10 million job opening number have to disappear before unemployment can rise?
What are those 10 million jobs though? I don't think the people getting laid off at Google can drive a forklift.
LostInLA07
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Sure they can.

Or learn to weld.
Charismatic Megafauna
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Model t on this move 378ish?
GreasenUSA
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Bob Knights Paper Hands said:

My goodness this market is tough to trade. Gone are the days we could identify a trend, set stops, and just let it ride all day or for multiple days.
Seems like we're still getting around 1 big trend day per week. Identifying stops is really tough. And holding overnights is definitely a no-no, except with the tiniest of runners. The big trend day seems to often be followed by a gap in the other direction.
Diggity
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AG
Bonfire1996 said:

Diggity said:

Bonfire1996 said:

BREwmaster said:

Bonfire1996 said:

VIX isn't going to hit the high point till the SPR drain is stopped. Then heads up
still bullish on real estate for 2022/23? the talk above this post had me thinking about it. but it only makes sense that they can't keep rates high for long.
Yes, but not yet. These rates are in the process of crushing values on income producing properties. Can't make much return when the banks start making 8-9%. Those values WILL come down, big time.

Remember, MOST (like 75% or more) investment properties are bought with short term ARM financing. 3-5 year fixed rates, only, then floating at a rate over Prime or Treasuries. These people bought these properties and paid 4-5% on initial rates and their adjustments will be between 8%-10%!!!! That kills Net Operating Income and makes deals unprofitable.

Sell it quick to get your negative returning equity back. More sellers than buyers (with rates high less buyers) leads to downward pressure on price.

Tourist areas by you are in for trouble.
where are you getting this info? that seems very high.
Im a banker. The investment property loan programs for long term fixed rates aren't plentiful. It isn't like a Fannie Mae mortgage for a primary residence with super easy qualifications.
got it. my understanding was that ARM's were less than 5% of the total market until the recent runup. Just figured investment properties would make up a larger chunk of the total pie.
Spoony Love
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I think trying to nail this down to one aspect is futile but I get your point.

My question is are the 10 million jobs necessary?

Companies could easily pull back hiring and cross-train while paying employees a little more. That may not be worth 10 million jobs but it could lessen the impact of unemployment needing to rise.
Bonfire1996
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bigtoneag said:

Bonfire1996 said:

Exactly my point Prog. Normies and press will say these layoffs need to happen so the fed takes their foot off the brakes. But doesn't that 10 million job opening number have to disappear before unemployment can rise?
What are those 10 million jobs though? I don't think the people getting laid off at Google can drive a forklift.
They are gonna have to adapt if they want to eat.

But the cross section of jobs in that 10 million is extremely diverse.
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