Low key today but it worked.
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just don't blow off top too soon, they don't like that!Charismatic Megafauna said:
Everybody's trendline is different, it's how you use yours that matters!
Evening Gents….
What I'm watching. Trend line & 21EMA break? Hold red SR back tested 2 days and prior SR? 50 EMA above.
SPY
Trade wisely!
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
I'm starting to believe Thursday might've been a short term bottom. Hard to know with so many big companies presenting earnings in coming weeks. Last week was a spinning top candle on weekly SP charts, so we must be close anyway. I would guess at least one further retest to give some sort of a hammer candle but perhaps not.
No idea. I don't believe it yet.
Midterms coming up and relative global strength financially and energy wise. China is cutting off Europe gas sales and now that Xi secured a new term, they prob reopen, offsetting some of the Powell demand destruction.
I would think a rally here back near 4000 would be good for the Fed giving them more hawkish runway for a soft landing. Harder to stay hawkish and fight inflation if we leg down to 3200 direct from here.
I would think a rally here back near 4000 would be good for the Fed giving them more hawkish runway for a soft landing. Harder to stay hawkish and fight inflation if we leg down to 3200 direct from here.
Futures!
Gapped up and have steamed along…
Gapped up and have steamed along…
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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This is the sorriest excuse of a POTUS in my lifetime and I suffered through Carter, Obama and now Brandon. I'm on a mobile phone and dont know how to put the story below in quotes. I'd like to know how Brandon is going to put up U.S. Govt interference with Apple and stabilise a price on an iPhone. Ugh,....this fellow is the worst.
WASHINGTON, Oct 18 The Biden administration has spoken with energy companies as it considers a plan to use the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to both push down oil prices for consumers and support longer-term demand for producers, two sources familiar with the matter said.
The discussions, which involve combining new releases from the stockpile and setting the schedule for buying the oil back, reflect the White House's desire to combat rising pump prices without hurting domestic drillers or refiners.
Rising retail gasoline prices have helped boost inflation to the highest in decades, posing a risk to Biden and his fellow Democrats ahead of the November 8 midterm elections, in which they are seeking to keep control of Congress.
Biden said last week gasoline prices are too high and that he would have more to say about lowering the costs this week. David Turk, his deputy energy secretary, also said last week the administration can tap the SPR in coming weeks and months as necessary to stabilise oil.
The administration has spoken with energy companies about buying back oil through 2025 to replenish the reserve, known as the SPR, the sources said, after Biden in March announced the biggest sale ever, 180 million barrels, from May to October.
To stabilise oil prices, which rose before falling last week and steadying yesterday, it is also preparing to sell about an additional 40 million barrels of SPR oil, which could be announced soon, said a third source.
The Energy Department still has about 14 million barrels of SPR oil left to sell from the 180 million barrel release, which was slowed in July by holidays and hot weather. In addition, the administration is mandated by a law Congress passed years ago to sell another 26 million barrels of SPR oil in fiscal year 2023, which started October 1.
"The administration has a small window ahead of midterms to try to lower fuel prices, or at least demonstrate that they are trying," said a source familiar with the White House deliberations. "The White House did not like US$4 (RM19) a gallon gas and it has signalled that it will take action to prevent that again."
Average US gasoline prices hit about US$3.89 a gallon yesterday, up about 20 cents from a month ago and 56 cents higher than last year at this time, according to the AAA motor group. Gasoline prices hit a record average above US$5.00 in June.
The White House and the DoE did not immediately respond to requests for comment about the talks with energy companies.
In May, the DoE said it would launch bids late this year for a buy-back of about one third of the 180 million barrel sale. It suggested then that deliveries would be linked to lower oil prices and lower demand, likely after fiscal year 2023, which ends September 30 next year. Two sources said the buy-backs could continue through 2025.
Biden officials in recent months also urged oil refiners including Exxon Mobil Chevron and Valero to not increase exports of fuel and warned them it could take actions if plants do not build inventories. The administration has not taken a potential ban of gasoline and diesel exports off the table although opponents of such a move say it could exacerbate Europe's energy crisis and raise fuel prices at home.
WASHINGTON, Oct 18 The Biden administration has spoken with energy companies as it considers a plan to use the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to both push down oil prices for consumers and support longer-term demand for producers, two sources familiar with the matter said.
The discussions, which involve combining new releases from the stockpile and setting the schedule for buying the oil back, reflect the White House's desire to combat rising pump prices without hurting domestic drillers or refiners.
Rising retail gasoline prices have helped boost inflation to the highest in decades, posing a risk to Biden and his fellow Democrats ahead of the November 8 midterm elections, in which they are seeking to keep control of Congress.
Biden said last week gasoline prices are too high and that he would have more to say about lowering the costs this week. David Turk, his deputy energy secretary, also said last week the administration can tap the SPR in coming weeks and months as necessary to stabilise oil.
The administration has spoken with energy companies about buying back oil through 2025 to replenish the reserve, known as the SPR, the sources said, after Biden in March announced the biggest sale ever, 180 million barrels, from May to October.
To stabilise oil prices, which rose before falling last week and steadying yesterday, it is also preparing to sell about an additional 40 million barrels of SPR oil, which could be announced soon, said a third source.
The Energy Department still has about 14 million barrels of SPR oil left to sell from the 180 million barrel release, which was slowed in July by holidays and hot weather. In addition, the administration is mandated by a law Congress passed years ago to sell another 26 million barrels of SPR oil in fiscal year 2023, which started October 1.
"The administration has a small window ahead of midterms to try to lower fuel prices, or at least demonstrate that they are trying," said a source familiar with the White House deliberations. "The White House did not like US$4 (RM19) a gallon gas and it has signalled that it will take action to prevent that again."
Average US gasoline prices hit about US$3.89 a gallon yesterday, up about 20 cents from a month ago and 56 cents higher than last year at this time, according to the AAA motor group. Gasoline prices hit a record average above US$5.00 in June.
The White House and the DoE did not immediately respond to requests for comment about the talks with energy companies.
In May, the DoE said it would launch bids late this year for a buy-back of about one third of the 180 million barrel sale. It suggested then that deliveries would be linked to lower oil prices and lower demand, likely after fiscal year 2023, which ends September 30 next year. Two sources said the buy-backs could continue through 2025.
Biden officials in recent months also urged oil refiners including Exxon Mobil Chevron and Valero to not increase exports of fuel and warned them it could take actions if plants do not build inventories. The administration has not taken a potential ban of gasoline and diesel exports off the table although opponents of such a move say it could exacerbate Europe's energy crisis and raise fuel prices at home.
FJB and anyone who would vote for that party in the next election.
Red Pear Luke (BCS)
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
This is the sorriest excuse of a POTUS in my lifetime and I suffered through Carter, Obama and now Brandon. I'm on a mobile phone and dont know how to put the story below in quotes. I'd like to know how Brandon is going to put up U.S. Govt interference with Apple and stabilise a price on an iPhone. Ugh,....this fellow is the worst.
WASHINGTON, Oct 18 The Biden administration has spoken with energy companies as it considers a plan to use the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to both push down oil prices for consumers and support longer-term demand for producers, two sources familiar with the matter said.
The discussions, which involve combining new releases from the stockpile and setting the schedule for buying the oil back, reflect the White House's desire to combat rising pump prices without hurting domestic drillers or refiners.
Rising retail gasoline prices have helped boost inflation to the highest in decades, posing a risk to Biden and his fellow Democrats ahead of the November 8 midterm elections, in which they are seeking to keep control of Congress.
Biden said last week gasoline prices are too high and that he would have more to say about lowering the costs this week. David Turk, his deputy energy secretary, also said last week the administration can tap the SPR in coming weeks and months as necessary to stabilise oil.
The administration has spoken with energy companies about buying back oil through 2025 to replenish the reserve, known as the SPR, the sources said, after Biden in March announced the biggest sale ever, 180 million barrels, from May to October.
To stabilise oil prices, which rose before falling last week and steadying yesterday, it is also preparing to sell about an additional 40 million barrels of SPR oil, which could be announced soon, said a third source.
The Energy Department still has about 14 million barrels of SPR oil left to sell from the 180 million barrel release, which was slowed in July by holidays and hot weather. In addition, the administration is mandated by a law Congress passed years ago to sell another 26 million barrels of SPR oil in fiscal year 2023, which started October 1.
"The administration has a small window ahead of midterms to try to lower fuel prices, or at least demonstrate that they are trying," said a source familiar with the White House deliberations. "The White House did not like US$4 (RM19) a gallon gas and it has signalled that it will take action to prevent that again."
Average US gasoline prices hit about US$3.89 a gallon yesterday, up about 20 cents from a month ago and 56 cents higher than last year at this time, according to the AAA motor group. Gasoline prices hit a record average above US$5.00 in June.
The White House and the DoE did not immediately respond to requests for comment about the talks with energy companies.
In May, the DoE said it would launch bids late this year for a buy-back of about one third of the 180 million barrel sale. It suggested then that deliveries would be linked to lower oil prices and lower demand, likely after fiscal year 2023, which ends September 30 next year. Two sources said the buy-backs could continue through 2025.
Biden officials in recent months also urged oil refiners including Exxon Mobil Chevron and Valero to not increase exports of fuel and warned them it could take actions if plants do not build inventories. The administration has not taken a potential ban of gasoline and diesel exports off the table although opponents of such a move say it could exacerbate Europe's energy crisis and raise fuel prices at home.
Sad drilling noises.
Article I read and came here to post said traders have been avoiding Longing on O&G. Guess I should have been in that boat.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Depends on your timeline. Basically they are saying they'll continue bleeding the SPR through the election day and then stop just after and immediately begin buying back. So oil prices are planned to rise just after mid terms, during heating oil season, and in a winter where Europe will need all they can get due to the Russia mess. They are playing chicken with an 18-wheeler and not only do they have Americans in the car with them, but families in Europe as well. This could get really, really ugly here and abroad, and they are already setting the stage to try to hang it on domestic E&P companies. However, with high prices we could see E&P stocks run starting in November.
TSLA sure is enjoying this premarket session.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Yep. This is the key. I posted sometime back that Brandon has to stop when SPR inventory reaches 315 million barrels, per SPR secured stocks, At that point in time of posting, considering the 180 mb of Mar/Oct and the 10 mb of Nov, Brandon had access to an additional 71 mb (that's including the 26 mb Congress allowed to sell in 2023). I didn't think he would go after that additional 71 mb, and I'm not convinced he will. You are correct, "They are playing chicken with an 18-wheeler and not only do they have Americans in the car with them, but families in Europe as well." If Brandon puts more SPR in the market, OPEC+ will cut production. If Brandon stops the exportation of refined products, the industry can't store the inventory levels produced from "optimal" production plus use from normal demand; thereby, a situation is created to operate sub-optimal and less refined products will be produced in this country and prices will go up. Supply chains and distribution will be jacked-up throughout this country. Radical liberals destroy everything they touch. As for XOM, CVX and OXY - Brandon cant stop them and OPEC+ is going to take Brandon to the woodshed again....all because of Green Energy.Bob Knights Liver said:
Depends on your timeline. Basically they are saying they'll continue bleeding the SPR through the election day and then stop just after and immediately begin buying back. So oil prices are planned to rise just after mid terms, during heating oil season, and in a winter where Europe will need all they can get due to the Russia mess. They are playing chicken with an 18-wheeler and not only do they have Americans in the car with them, but families in Europe as well. This could get really, really ugly here and abroad, and they are already setting the stage to try to hang it on domestic E&P companies. However, with high prices we could see E&P stocks run starting in November.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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This EV tells the world how committed you are to Green Energy.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rolls-royce-unveils-its-350000-spectre-luxury-ev-122114678.html
Wonder if it can be towed? I understand most EV's can't due to plastic undercarriages. Maybe someone on here can clear that up for me.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rolls-royce-unveils-its-350000-spectre-luxury-ev-122114678.html
Wonder if it can be towed? I understand most EV's can't due to plastic undercarriages. Maybe someone on here can clear that up for me.
I don't know what force is driving the market. I don't get this.
I'm not going to fight it but I'm not looking to add longs here.
I'm not going to fight it but I'm not looking to add longs here.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Seasonality.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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$30,000 Millionaire said:
I don't know what force is driving the market. I don't get this.
I'm not going to fight it but I'm not looking to add longs here.
Run ups during AH, and flat with decent volume during cash session, extremely bearish sentiment, OPEX week. I suspect this is burning shorts. If so we'll know by Thursday, I guess. Of course we could hear the Fed is changing course and we jump 10% quickly. I'm taking the open an as opportunity to exit a few longs and wait.
I may buy some 3650-3700 puts for next week as well - lotto size, since I'll have to hold them through Thursday no matter what.
Saw Bidens econ guy boasting about how the SPR is still half full, but not to ease concerns over depleting emergency supply. Instead he was basically mentioning how there is more room to deplete further.
The only thing keeping me from going all in on oil thru EOY is my already big RIG position and fact that everyone else is bullish oil.
The only thing keeping me from going all in on oil thru EOY is my already big RIG position and fact that everyone else is bullish oil.
You would know better than me and others on here and I agree, what is pushing this?
At the same time, I feel like the wrong statement from a Fed chair could send this thing fully in the opposite direction.
At the same time, I feel like the wrong statement from a Fed chair could send this thing fully in the opposite direction.
Bank of England propping the market up?
Shorts covering?
Irrational exuberance?
Shorts covering?
Irrational exuberance?
BlueTaze said:
Saw Bidens econ guy boasting about how the SPR is still half full, but not to ease concerns over depleting emergency supply. Instead he was basically mentioning how there is more room to deplete further.
The only thing keeping me from going all in on oil thru EOY is my already big RIG position and fact that everyone else is bullish oil.
They said the only real emergency would be Russia using nukes and at that point Houston and all their refineries would be leveled so we couldn't even use the SPR.
A simple rule I have is to not buy charts that look like this without a pullback.
I think 3745 trading is inevitable.
I think 3745 trading is inevitable.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
How do we know if we are in a short squeeze or not?
I stupidly held two SPY options over night:
10/19 350P - didn't get to drop it yesterday in time
10/19 385C - picked up before close just in case of what is happening right now
I can see both of them being green at some point today. That's how irrational I think the market is right now.
10/19 350P - didn't get to drop it yesterday in time
10/19 385C - picked up before close just in case of what is happening right now
I can see both of them being green at some point today. That's how irrational I think the market is right now.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Good point. Might have been less expensive to rally an equities market versus paying a $1.35 to $2.0 trillion margin call.Philip J Fry said:
Bank of England propping the market up?
Shorts covering?
Irrational exuberance?
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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XOM breaking the $102.50 (some say $102.24) barrier is a clear shot to $105. Either way,...we're going. See you at $105.
Uh oh, Iran promising missiles and drones to Russia. Farner should be happy about that right?
Exclusive-Iran Agrees to Ship Missiles, More Drones to Russia, Defying the West-Sources (usnews.com)
Exclusive-Iran Agrees to Ship Missiles, More Drones to Russia, Defying the West-Sources (usnews.com)
$SPY Flow is BULLISH?! That's a first 👀 pic.twitter.com/3gs6xetY6U
— Cheddar Flow (@CheddarFlow) October 18, 2022
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Philip J Fry said:
How do we know if we are in a short squeeze or not?
If you're talking macros - while it can happen after hours, you generally see large short positions closing during the day when there's more liquidity. That's why two sessions of large run ups outside of the cash session and almost flat during the cash sessions make me think this is intended to move prices up for some purpose.
/CL dropping yet all oil tickers are up. Seems odd.
Philip J Fry said:
Bank of England propping the market up?
Shorts covering?
Irrational exuberance?
Better than expected tech earnings?
China abandoning Russia? (Would China ally themselves with Iran or have any interest in drone strikes on Ukraine civilians?)
Algos looking to bankrupt retail traders?
We have to go back up eventually?
Election expectations?
Could be everything or nothing.
Philip J Fry said:
How do we know if we are in a short squeeze or not?
When you wake up 7-10 days later to realize you missed it and are cursing yourself.
Anyone know anything about Tellurian? Is it a dead duck now without the Driftwood LNG?
When the FED has tripled down on raising rates, the 10-year is holding firm and rising (and is 50bps minimum below where it will be after the next raise), the president is releasing strategic reserves and admitting he will stop releasing and start refilling after mid terms, and despite continually rising inflation and cost of goods, the media is still telling you to expect a pivot and soft landing. All the while the S&P sits below a falling trendline that happens to line up with multiple indicators that will push it downward at the same time.Philip J Fry said:
How do we know if we are in a short squeeze or not?
It's definitely not rocket science. Hell, it's not even biology. It's harder to tell what a woman is right now than what a squeeze is.
WE ARE IN A BEAR MARKET. Until the economy shows signs of recovering, turns that into actual recovering, we get a trend of positivity over multiple months and then quarters, and then follow through beyond that, we are in a bear market. And during a bear market, all swings upward are considered short term bounces. They do not act the same as bull market moves up. They incur multiple phases of rockets followed by multiple phases of what seems to be endless chop that somehow melts up while destroying the value of the short term options you decided to trade as if we were in a bull market. You will likely enter after the rocket. You will lose. You will likely sell during the chop. You will lose.
You guys have GOT to learn to stop trading every market the same. Up in a bear market is traded the way you would trade down in a bull market (most DONT trade it). Down in a bear market is traded the way you trade up in a bull market. If you can't trade puts the way you trade calls, and cant short the way you buy longs, then you aren't a day trader. If all you can do is trade up, no matter the market we're in, then you need to stop paying attention daily as you are likely destroying your value when you should be a passive investor.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
The pre market this morning had a weird feeling to it with it going up for no reason. Made me think about the CPI drop and ending the day way up. Felt like that could be the opposite today and we fall back in the downward channel.
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