$30,000 Millionaire said:

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Sold 96P in XOM. Close enough to where I want to buy to try to get it or get some premium for the trouble.

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I have shares around $88. Aslo sold 90P a few weeks ago when they were ATM to potentially pick up more and average down, but just bought these back for 70% gain and used it to buy Dec 105C

Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

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I missed this.

BSG, this might be the bearish input you're looking for; however, this is not bearish XOM or O&G. Joe just wants cheap gas until the election is over.

WTI Futures reacting to -

https://www.stripes.com/theaters/us/2022-10-11/biden-reevaluate-saudi-arabia-7652707.html

Quote:

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President Biden is starting to rethink what the relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia should look like after last week's announcement by a coalition of oil-producing nations led by the kingdom that it will slash oil production, a move Biden had warned would push up gas prices worldwide and bolster Russia in its war against Ukraine, a White House spokesman said Tuesday.
"I think the president's been very clear that this is a relationship that we need to continue to reevaluate, that we need to be willing to revisit," White House spokesman John Kirby said on CNN, reiterating Biden's disappointment in the decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners.
"Certainly in light of the OPEC decision, I think that's where he is," Kirby said. "And he's willing to work with Congress to think through what that relationship ought to look like going forward."

Kirby, the strategic communications coordinator for the National Security Council at the White House, said he had no announcements to make about where that process would lead, but said U.S. officials, including Biden, will "think about what the right relationship with Saudi Arabia needs to be going forward."
Asked about a timetable, Kirby said, "I think the timeline is now, and I think he's going to be willing to start to have those conversations right away."
Biden administration officials had launched an extraordinary effort to press Saudi Arabia to produce more oil to compensate for the global shortage caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with the president personally visiting Saudi leaders in a trip to Jiddah in July. With last week's announcement, Saudi Arabia rejected those entreaties, at least in part.
Officials had hoped that Biden's trip to the kingdom would improve the Saudi relationship across a range of issues, including the global supply of oil.
The cut in oil production helps Russian President Vladimir Putin as he wages war on Ukraine and was seen as a possible trigger to increasing gas prices in the United States weeks before the midterm elections, when Democrats' slim majorities in the House and Senate are in jeopardy.

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ETA: Saudi took his belt off and gave Brandon a warm up whipping. Brandon now knows he can't win.

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There's not much he can scare them with. The Saudis know he'll be gone in a couple years anyway.

I started buying TQQQ today. Gut says everyone is too bearish and these "headlines" feel too convenient before the inflation numbers come out. This is pure gut speculation, but at least that close made me feel decent about it. Only down 2% on it currently.

This is not a hodl... I am looking to offload on a nice pop.

techno-ag said:

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Yeah someday tech will go back up, one would think, and TQQQ will soar.

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In all seriousness... I'm planning to open an account and DCA into TQQQ a small amount each month and not even look at it until we hit all time highs again. Haha.

irish pete ag06 said:

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I started buying TQQQ today. Gut says everyone is too bearish and these "headlines" feel too convenient before the inflation numbers come out. This is pure gut speculation, but at least that close made me feel decent about it. Only down 2% on it currently.

This is not a hodl... I am looking to offload on a nice pop.

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Seasonal chart would suggest CPI drops and markets rip. Reality is otherwise, and Bonfire laid out the bear case well last week as to why CPI stays high or goes to new highs. Saw a couple other experts suggesting a big CPI number close to 9%.

History favors a high CPI. It takes YEARS to unwind high inflation, not months.

I'm gonna trade it with a straddle with Fri expiration. Planning to buy tomorrow afternoon. $3 OTM in each direction.

If CPI prints high, put Tom Lee on suicide watch.

The straddle has been a great strategy heading into these events.


Can close out the fake out option for a gain, then watch your other one go from -90% to 300%

I agree with the bearishness and reasons for it, but we won't go straight down.

BaylorSpineGuy said:

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irish pete ag06 said:

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I started buying TQQQ today. Gut says everyone is too bearish and these "headlines" feel too convenient before the inflation numbers come out. This is pure gut speculation, but at least that close made me feel decent about it. Only down 2% on it currently.

This is not a hodl... I am looking to offload on a nice pop.

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Seasonal chart would suggest CPI drops and markets rip. Reality is otherwise, and Bonfire laid out the bear case well last week as to why CPI stays high or goes to new highs. Saw a couple other experts suggesting a big CPI number close to 9%.

History favors a high CPI. It takes YEARS to unwind high inflation, not months.

I'm gonna trade it with a straddle with Fri expiration. Planning to buy tomorrow afternoon. $3 OTM in each direction.

If CPI prints high, put Tom Lee on suicide watch.

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Not sure how you are defining high and/or low. The CPI calculation is math. The October 13th print will replace September 2021 increase of 0.4%. I gave the list of print replacements in a post this week. Because of the way CPI is calculated in YoY fashion, this CPI is not going to change much from previous CPI's. Might be a high 7 but I am not sure. Saying an 8 number is safer. I do not believe 9. Those low monthly CPI increases have to start falling off the calculation. The CPI progress (improvement) should mathematically start to improve itself in the 4th quarter. However, I'm a bull on energy and want $10 gas plus inflation, so if CPI prints high going forward, so be it. GL

I didn't hear the conversations obviously, but I think those drops they are referring to is the Month-to-Month change. That's spin. That's what Brandon was trying to communicate last month. The only people really looking at Month-to-Month are those that are trying to manufacture good news. If I were them, I'd probably do the same because the listening audience doesn't know better. It's not telling a lie, they are just polishing a turd. It's the YoY that counts. We are in a mess.

Inflation target is 2% percent which means that prices never stop rising.

This means that the high inflation prices are here to stay and it will take years to digest.

Also as mentioned before you won't see a reduction in CPI until early next year.

Month to Month is garbage.

There is no way headline will be 9%, if it is the SP will drop 4% tomorrow. The MS number sounds reasonable.

We talking about the same Carl?

The one who gets on every morning with Jim Cramer and gaslights how we've seen peak inflation?

Consider me a proponent of the inverse Carl ETF.

They are going to cook the books on the number for tomorrow, can't have it up around 9% going into the election.

It'll be bull**** and they'll revise it the day after midterms but expect it to be a completely BS number.

Yeah, I mean it's not like team Obama and Biden have ever cooked the books before around election time.

But enough about politics, enjoy your 10%, err 6% inflation.

Multiple posters here expecting CPI "tomorrow"...its
Thursday at market open.

BlueTaze said:

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Multiple posters here expecting CPI "tomorrow"...its
Thursday at market open.

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https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm

7:30AM Texas Time

FYI - Today's economic release is the Producer's Price Index (PPI)

US Sep PPI Ex. Food, Energy +0.3%, Consensus +0.3% https://t.co/5Ya1oFLOGZ

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) October 12, 2022

Red Pear BCS Luke said:

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BlueTaze said:

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Multiple posters here expecting CPI "tomorrow"...its
Thursday at market open.

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https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm

7:30AM Texas Time

FYI - Today's economic release is the Producer's Price Index (PPI)

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that has a ring to it, can we just change central to Texas time?

sts7049 said:

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US Sep PPI Ex. Food, Energy +0.3%, Consensus +0.3% https://t.co/5Ya1oFLOGZ

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) October 12, 2022

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100bps in November will fix this. See y'all at 3400 SPX

Bought some OXY.

Stop 62.75 for active trading.

FTAG 2000 said:

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They are going to cook the books on the number for tomorrow, can't have it up around 9% going into the election.

It'll be bull**** and they'll revise it the day after midterms but expect it to be a completely BS number.

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They cooked the books for more than a year to try to get the Green New Deal through, before they relabeled it the Inflation Reduction Act. They're pretty far behind as a result, so it will be difficult to continue cooking.