Cem as clear as I've ever heard him speak.

We put @jam_croissant in the hot seat on @tastytrade.

Asked for his short term directional opinion on everything: $SPY, $TNX , $VIX, $USD, $EWW, $EWZ, $INDA, $USO, $CCJ

CC: @CVecchioFX pic.twitter.com/JLEGwKael1

— Victor Jones (@victorJ0NES) September 23, 2022

I'm currently big long oil via OXY

Long biotech via LQDA and LABU.

I want to get long nuclear. Wish I had done it back in mid summer when I brought it up on this board but got talked out of it a little bit.

I'll be looking to go short macro when/if we start bumping into 3850




Edit to say: even though I've learned a lot… I have to ask. Cem is talking about VIX right when he just refers to "vol?"

irish pete ag06 said:

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Leaked White House talking points say an OPEC oil cut would be a “total disaster” & propose threatening OPEC members.

A U.S. official said the White House is “having a spasm & panicking.”

All to avoid more domestic oil production.https://t.co/PhuMFt7jZY

— Michael Shellenberger (@ShellenbergerMD) October 4, 2022

Farmer! Where are you?!

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Last day in TX, Wed. Heading back to SD.
*Saudi keeps their word.
*Crude Cut estimates are 1.0 to 2.5 mbd.
*Saw a 4.5 mbd
*Needs to be 1.0 mbd to offset the SPR Releases
*Many think 700,000 to 1.0 will be the range.
*That article is true
*After Mid-Terms the Dems dont care, win or lose.
*Gasoline going up
*WTI going up
*Diesel never came down
*California refineries down for routine maintenance. No other refineries makes CA special blend. California gas prices on a quick rise.
*IMO, SHTF at Thanksgiving for the U.S. in energy. Could happen sooner.
*SPR releases stop approximately Nov 10th.
*Buckle up for a couple years of high energy, unless Republicans can win Mid-Terms and stop Brandon.
*XOM 8K out and things look swimmingly.
*Germans are going to freeze
*Saudi dont like WTI and Brent manipulation
*I dont care for Putin or Zilensky, but since I am a betting man, I bet the Russians did not blow their pipes...did I say Germans are going to freeze?
*Brandon, begging OPEC not to cut production and fails to talk with U.S. producers....sums it up
*XOM is going to finish 2022 with much success, and 2023 will be even better.

Bob Knights Liver said:

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It looks like we will open below Mancini's key level for bulls. This will be an interesting day.

For 1st time since Sept 9, #ES_F saw 2 green days as 5th bear market run of 2022 starting. 1st dip of this leg underway & where it holds determines what rest of Oct looks like

Plan today:3785 remains key res (failing). Bulls must clear to see 3820, 3855. Otherwise, 3740-50 next https://t.co/FjtAhZqLhp

— Adam Mancini (@AdamMancini4) October 5, 2022

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Adam said he was long, although trimmed at the close which really boggled my mind after a 200+point SPX move. Regardless of OPEC there was a higher probability of consolidation because, as he says, we are still in a bear market.

AMZN signals no more hires due to slowing of online spending.

oldarmy1 said:

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AMZN signals no more hires due to slowing of online spending.

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The signal from my house is online spending still at ATH..

Thank you (your wife) for doing your (her) part to save the economy.

Raw power pic.twitter.com/tSNsqmZ9T9

— Spooky Narnian (@TheFreeNarnian) September 25, 2022

Play with sound on.

Play to the end. This seal had zero ****s to give.

Farmer, I could kiss you.

Get in line buddy

Farmer

Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

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Bookmark this.

In 2 to 3 weeks Saudi will cut crude production. OPEC+ is 3.4mbd under quota for August. Record for being under quota. Basically, since the beginning of the year Commercials have approximately a 9 million barrel build....while 150 million barrels have been released from the SPR (March to present). There is no "build". Maybe that helps paint the picture a bit better. Without the SPR releases(March to present), WTI should have been and presently be $150+, gasoline at the pump should have been and presently be north of $10/gal......for several months.. November should deliver the racheting price increases. Energy is not going to help those CPI numbers, that's why I noted earlier energy could blow up the CPI progress in the YoY calculation.

But ask yourself, are we really at 8% inflation? Maybe consider this, this Administration (DOE/EIA) published numbers that stated our fuel demand/consumption in June and/or July was less than our COVID Lock-Down when nobody drove to work. Sure it was..

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AW 1880 said:

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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

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Bookmark this.

In 2 to 3 weeks Saudi will cut crude production. OPEC+ is 3.4mbd under quota for August. Record for being under quota. Basically, since the beginning of the year Commercials have approximately a 9 million barrel build....while 150 million barrels have been released from the SPR (March to present). There is no "build". Maybe that helps paint the picture a bit better. Without the SPR releases(March to present), WTI should have been and presently be $150+, gasoline at the pump should have been and presently be north of $10/gal......for several months.. November should deliver the racheting price increases. Energy is not going to help those CPI numbers, that's why I noted earlier energy could blow up the CPI progress in the YoY calculation.

But ask yourself, are we really at 8% inflation? Maybe consider this, this Administration (DOE/EIA) published numbers that stated our fuel demand/consumption in June and/or July was less than our COVID Lock-Down when nobody drove to work. Sure it was..

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Think average Americans aren't grasping the incoming buzzsaw that has been set up by the irresponsible use of the SPR to manipulate market pricing at historic levels. Of course, none of that will happen until mid November (random date), so we still have a little bit of time.

I can hear 30K saying, "in a bear market, gaps below get filled after we gap up".

that would be 368 and change.

Today and tomorrow are big decision days for the beer candles.

Remember, there is not much missed if you wait for a weekly trend to CONFIRM upward. Why are you trying to time the market? For a couple extra bucks? How's that worked out for you?

Even if it takes a month, let it confirm. Let other idiots be the ones shaken out one way or another. Go get your thrills watching football.

Once it confirms, then you deploy heavily with the trend and tell your buddies how smart you are while kissing your local farmer.

Just purchased some XOM $100 Calls out to Jan '23 around $6.60.

Drill, Baby, Drill Cut, Baby, Cut

Many got sucked in at the top. No reason to long yet.

Biden writing a strongly worded letter to OPEC...

You can't make this s*** up....

Heineken-Ashi said:

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Today and tomorrow are big decision days for the beer candles.

Remember, there is not much missed if you wait for a weekly trend to CONFIRM upward. Why are you trying to time the market? For a couple extra bucks? How's that worked out for you?

Even if it takes a month, let it confirm. Let other idiots be the ones shaken out one way or another. Go get your thrills watching football.

Once it confirms, then you deploy heavily with the trend and tell your buddies how smart you are while kissing your local farmer.

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this is such a great post

"OPEC+ said Wednesday that it will cut oil production by 2 million barrels per day, the biggest cut since the start of the pandemic, in a move that threatens to raise prices higher just weeks before US miderms.

The group of major oil producers, which includes Saudi Arabia and Russia, announced the production cut following its first meeting in person since March 2020. The reduction is equivalent to about 2% of global oil demand."