Agree most narratives are BS, just pointing out the mon morning QBing we always see from experts to explain market reactions after the fact.

Here is an interesting take that has 10x the normal views of a CNBC upload. I bought some SPY calls and also OTM VIX calls in case Powell body slams the market thru support.

The FED has been floating 100 for a while. I assume to gauge the market reaction. My guess is that we'll see the 100 tomorrow and the market will rally behind it.

I expected market weakness after OpEx but it's been chop city and 3850 has been decent support. A couple brief breaks down but with recovery. If that's the case and it referents a short term bottom, we absolutely could see a rally to 395-400 and then a sharp turn after that. That's sorta what I'm guessing will happen. But it's just that, a guess.

Even pundits and experts on CNBC and Bloomberg are still fairly bullish. In a real bear market (and we haven't seen a real one since 2007-8 IMO), it doesn't end until there is hopelessness - people saying they will never buy a stock again. That sort of doom. Too many happy thoughts still.

I think most on this board are aligned with this thought and we have managed to weed out the Tom Lee's off this board. But you all on here are experts. You time countertrend rallies well and avoid calamity.

Tread carefully. My only option I'm currently holding is 1 FSLR 120P 10/14. It's down big but I'm holding. Been swinging it since last week. I rolled it forward when it dropped last wk and suspect it won't break 140. Just waiting for the big drop to close it.

BlueTaze said:

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Agree most narratives are BS, just pointing out the mon morning QBing we always see from experts to explain market reactions after the fact.

Here is an interesting take that has 10x the normal views of a CNBC upload. I bought some SPY calls and also OTM VIX calls in case Powell body slams the market thru support.

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I usually will listen to what Josh has to say but so far he has been dead wrong on the "rip your face off" rally prediction and I'm betting he will be wrong on the Fed backing down as well; sometimes he pays too much attention to the VIX.

I tend to agree.

This. Financial pain is deep and troubling. The problem is that this country and its citizens have been duped into a false sense of security thanks to Bernanke and the QE garbage. People have only really seen up markets for 15 yrs with minor blips.

I was looking at long term SPY trends today. The 200 monthly MA may be a long term target (likely next year?). It's down around 210 and would represent absolute hell for many people. That line hasn't been tested since 2011 or so.

It's not practical to predict it so hope I'm not wasting everyone's time, but must think financial catastrophe to go blind long. Everything now is tactical longs in a downward trend. I'm trying to spend 2-3x on a SPY put compared to a SPY call….well timed of course!

BaylorSpineGuy said:

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This. Financial pain is deep and troubling. The problem is that this country and its citizens have been duped into a false sense of security thanks to Bernanke and the QE garbage. People have only really seen up markets for 15 yrs with minor blips.

I was looking at long term SPY trends today. The 200 monthly MA may be a long term target (likely next year?). It's down around 210 and would represent absolute hell for many people. That line hasn't been tested since 2011 or so.

It's not practical to predict it so hope I'm not wasting everyone's time, but must think financial catastrophe to go blind long. Everything now is tactical longs in a downward trend. I'm trying to spend 2-3x on a SPY put compared to a SPY call….well timed of course!

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My head starts going in circles thinking that we are headed there but then realizing that we've printed a boatload of $ too. Where does all of that $ go instead of the market?

That's probably a really dumb question, but it's how my brain works.

Buck Compton said:

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$30,000 Millionaire said:

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I'm going to give a trade idea where it's pretty much impossible to lose money. Keep it on the board please. I'm not taking this because I can do better but for the ultra conservative types this is good.

Buy LABU at $8. Sell Jan 24 3C for $6. 12% guaranteed return with exceptionally low risk. You could also sell the 4P but I like the other side better.

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Am I analyzing this correct? Assuming 1 contract.

Buy at 100 LABU @ $8 = ($800)
Sell Jan 24 3C @$6 = $600
If called, Sell 100 LABU @$3 = $300 for a 12% return (~9.25% annualized)

If not called because it fell to the floor, breakeven price on the trade in Jan 2024 is $2.00 (excluding commissions). Below $2 is the only way you lose money on this trade on paper (but you still own the ETF)

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Correct.

Bob Knights Liver said:

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Triple_Bagger said:

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SAVA +25% today

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28.4%

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It'll get really interesting if it breaches into the low 40s, back to where it was before the short report / FDA / SEC investigation.

It's not a dumb question at all. In fact, it's quite logical. We've had Trillions of dollars of funny-money pumped into the system over the last 3 years. As a result, assets across all asset classes are over-valued relative to what their true valuation should be.

Yes but that money was what drove the prices higher over the 2 yrs following money printing. Inflation is a killer.

If inflation was mercied by markets, Germany would be thriving right now. I've posted some of Friedman's videos in the past about inflation. Its pernicious effects run rampant and ultimately cut into profitable earnings. 1965-1982 is probably a decent corollary.

Right, but unless they start destroying currency, will it not eventually end back up in the market?

Head spins.

BaylorSpineGuy said:

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This. Financial pain is deep and troubling. The problem is that this country and its citizens have been duped into a false sense of security thanks to Bernanke and the QE garbage. People have only really seen up markets for 15 yrs with minor blips.

I was looking at long term SPY trends today. The 200 monthly MA may be a long term target (likely next year?). It's down around 210 and would represent absolute hell for many people. That line hasn't been tested since 2011 or so.

It's not practical to predict it so hope I'm not wasting everyone's time, but must think financial catastrophe to go blind long. Everything now is tactical longs in a downward trend. I'm trying to spend 2-3x on a SPY put compared to a SPY call….well timed of course!

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Not certain from above how you view Bernanke. .... Truth is, he is the only fellow that had a plan. 100% truth. Ben left the Chair with a freaking 20 year plan of what to do after he left. Yellen followed it. Powell did not. Powell started raising rates and got his tit in the ringer for doing that under Trump tenure. I can't say I agreed with everything Ben did, but I will say this, he's the only fellow that knew what the heck was going on and how to address it. For that, I am thankful for his leadership and guidance in helping this country. I would like to see the Fed booted from America; however, Ben was the man for the time. This is especially true when you don't allow bankruptcy courts to do their job and allow big banks to survive for another day and still get paid when they should have been twisting in the wind. JMO.

BaylorSpineGuy said:

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This. Financial pain is deep and troubling. The problem is that this country and its citizens have been duped into a false sense of security thanks to Bernanke and the QE garbage. People have only really seen up markets for 15 yrs with minor blips.

I was looking at long term SPY trends today. The 200 monthly MA may be a long term target (likely next year?). It's down around 210 and would represent absolute hell for many people. That line hasn't been tested since 2011 or so.

It's not practical to predict it so hope I'm not wasting everyone's time, but must think financial catastrophe to go blind long. Everything now is tactical longs in a downward trend. I'm trying to spend 2-3x on a SPY put compared to a SPY call….well timed of course!

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If you really want to scare yourself, take a look at the MACD 5Y. Pretty strongly telling us that we have a lot further down to go.

How are you even supposed to know what to trade going into FOMC tomorrow?

Seems like it could rip or crap all at the same time.

There's certainly no easy solution to the mess. But quantitative easing was a giant 15 yr bandaid equivalent to kicking the can. This has allowed inflation to run low at the expense of severe inequality between the have's and have-not's. I won't argue the merits of either side of that argument. Half this thread would end up in band camp lol.

Still, QE had to eventually end and its unwinding has only exacerbated the inflation problem (which, IMO, is caused by money printing). Either problem was horrible and both combined are a nightmare.

I'm not a fed expert and I didn't follow monetary policy closely at the time, but my general sense is that the Fed has helped keep inflation low with some of their policies. As that unwinds, there is gonna be real pain. There was always gonna be a loser on one side or the other.

Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

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Bob Knights Liver said:

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Triple_Bagger said:

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SAVA +25% today

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28.4%

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Doin' the dance over here!

About 30 minutes remaining in the session. There was a 3.7 million share buy order. Trading was halted. Nobody selling is the word. Trading resumed. Nobody has an answer to the 3.7 million order. Could be a Meme tomorrow, who knows. Lots of volume today 7.22 million versus a 65 Day Moving average of 2.54 million. Somebody knows something. AH is down a few cents. Reports are, there are no shares available to short.

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Could you explain how there are no shares available to short?

Bnels1323 said:

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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

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Bob Knights Liver said:

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Triple_Bagger said:

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SAVA +25% today

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28.4%

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Doin' the dance over here!

About 30 minutes remaining in the session. There was a 3.7 million share buy order. Trading was halted. Nobody selling is the word. Trading resumed. Nobody has an answer to the 3.7 million order. Could be a Meme tomorrow, who knows. Lots of volume today 7.22 million versus a 65 Day Moving average of 2.54 million. Somebody knows something. AH is down a few cents. Reports are, there are no shares available to short.

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Could you explain how there are no shares available to short?

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Triple_Bagger is likely better to provide the explanation. I didn't look up the textbook definition so treat the info as "subject". Market Makers loan shares to offset the short on someone else's books. Those shares are "loaned" for money and expected to be returned upon Market Maker's call. I guess trading houses don't have access to cover internal shorts anymore from Market Makers providing shares and word is getting out. Looks like the short is +30%. That's pretty sizable in my opinion. So, a short squeeze and a favorable decision from the SEC are the bullish points driving the stock - all happening within 24 hours.

otherwise known as a short squeeze. Rapid movement up. Very sharp peak, and then a rapid decline as people take profit. You have to be watching by the minute to catch it. At least, that's how CLOV was for me.

I think we dip in the morning then head up to the top of this channel

My trade today was to buy sept 28 400c that i wanted to be in for tomorrow, but a half hour later they were up 25% so i had to take profits. I think it'll work out alright

That's a real possibility but the other thing to consider is that when the market plunged last week on CPI news, it created an island top reversal in the 410-412 range. Island reversals, while not super reliable as a trade in and of itself, often do not get filled - or for long periods they go unfilled. Something to consider.

I can envision any number of scenarios playing out tomorrow. Fake breakdown and rip and vice versa. Straight rip or straight plunge. Couple any of those with follow throughs or reversals the next days. Super tricky and I'm not very good lol. Have to be fast and right. Mancini is usually helpful with level trading during all the tricky stuff. His channels are always reliable that I've seen.

BaylorSpineGuy said:

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I can envision any number of scenarios playing out tomorrow..

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This is me right now. The vision that I'm having(yet don't expect at all) is that it comes out as expected or better and we turn bullish. Start seeing 400+ again and keep going, I'm tired of this oversold but keeps going down period we are in. I've learned my lesson that just because it looks oversold doesn't mean it will soon go up but FOMC seems like a good catalyst to get this market from dropping more.

Then again it wouldn't surprise me for the news to be good and the market still drop.

I get it. People are tired of the bear market but it's not close to done. Don't fight the tape and don't fight the Fed. They are gonna raise rates aggressively. That will kill profits, kill borrowing, and kill tech. It will squash speculation that has been entrenched for the last number of years, highlighted by the 2021 super bull.

Roubini came out today and called for a drawdown of 40% from ATH. That's more than another 1000 pts! A violent rally could occur but think it's gonna be a minor relief bounce before a retest of June lows.

FOMC playbook pretty well known, unless they surprise. Have Putin in a few hours, could throw a wrench in the meantime. Time to be cautious and sized down.