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Last: 8 hrs ago by Heineken-Ashi
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Futures down a bit, but peaked over 3930. I still think we'll have chop while waiting for the rate hike, but we could have one of those weird lower-volume green trend days.
JUPW May be pushing out of C&H today. Has been basing and forming triangle over last several days and is pushing up this morning. Turned back from 1.40 some few months back and there's a couple other small resistances in between.
Proud bagholder here.
Proud bagholder here.
losing 3900 now, if 3850 doesn't hold hang on.
Yesterday, I was looking for pre-FOMC rally to 3925, 3945 and we got to 3935 overnight before bulls ran out of steam #ES_F. Until FOMC tomorrow, all is noise
— Adam Mancini (@AdamMancini4) September 20, 2022
Plan today: Bulls need >3905 to trigger back to 3925, 3945. Otherwise, its back to 3870, 3855 (gateway to next leg down) https://t.co/x9l80ovunf
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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If we dip back to 3850, I'm watching for reversal. I don't think we'll get continuation on any big moves either way until after the rate hike is announced tomorrow.
I've been trading this one around a core position, selling when over $1 and buying in the $0.70s. I'm net free on the core position. Thanks for bringing this one to the board.BaylorSpineGuy said:
JUPW May be pushing out of C&H today. Has been basing and forming triangle over last several days and is pushing up this morning. Turned back from 1.40 some few months back and there's a couple other small resistances in between.
Proud bagholder here.
Glad someone profited! I'm always reluctant to buy more shares of something at a lower price if it's falling. Maybe I need to get over that.
Closed this on the gap down for +15%irish pete ag06 said:
OTM Straddle on SPY for 379P and 397C
Lotto size
Waiting to snag another one right before JPOW talks
For those like me who are learning a great deal. I've gotten my ass handed to me trying to swing a VIX trade.
About 5-6 weeks ago I bought $30 VIX calls that expire tomorrow. These have never been green.
The biggest thing I did wrong was I went too far OTM.
I was convinced we were gonna revisit the 30s. I was buying these when VIX was sub $20. If I had bought half the amount of calls I did and reduced it to $24 or $25... it would have easily been a win.
Live and learn.
About 5-6 weeks ago I bought $30 VIX calls that expire tomorrow. These have never been green.
The biggest thing I did wrong was I went too far OTM.
I was convinced we were gonna revisit the 30s. I was buying these when VIX was sub $20. If I had bought half the amount of calls I did and reduced it to $24 or $25... it would have easily been a win.
Live and learn.
Market said "surprise, beetch" this morning. Can't believe ***** is blocked.
irish pete ag06 said:
For those like me who are learning a great deal. I've gotten my ass handed to me trying to swing a VIX trade.
About 5-6 weeks ago I bought $30 VIX calls that expire tomorrow. These have never been green.
I went too far OTM. I was buying these when VIX was sub $20. If I had bought half the amount of calls I did and reduced it to $24 or $25... it would have easily been a win.
Live and learn.
I short Vix only.
Yeah... So this has forced me to watch VIX every day. And that seems like the winning trade. Seems like the forces at work are constantly pushing it downward.
Bust down through the $384.31 line. My next 2 down on the 15 $SPY are $383.46 and then last Friday's low point of $382.11BREwmaster said:great point... and at 11:06 central, bears tried a futile attempt to push under. It was bought hard there (384 dip).JDTxAg98 said:I had a resistance line from Friday @ about $384.31 on the 15min $SPY. Once it cleared that during first 15 min today it's held it every time it pushes down.BREwmaster said:Dude you're learning things, keep it up! that or I am too, lol. I also have 384 as an area of interest.BaylorSpineGuy said:
The caveat here is that 382.11 is a true bottom. Some evidence for that since it made a hammer candle on Friday.
This is something I am learning as well. Starting with a small account a while ago and struggling to see anything green because I was too far OTM. Trying to be patient and add capital with extra funds to purchase closer to the money options or even ITM. I mean, the percentage of success is even displayed and I'm not sure why I would be looking at anything less than 25% chance of success. That would help reduce loss I think.
$30,000 Millionaire said:irish pete ag06 said:
For those like me who are learning a great deal. I've gotten my ass handed to me trying to swing a VIX trade.
About 5-6 weeks ago I bought $30 VIX calls that expire tomorrow. These have never been green.
I went too far OTM. I was buying these when VIX was sub $20. If I had bought half the amount of calls I did and reduced it to $24 or $25... it would have easily been a win.
Live and learn.
I short Vix only.
This. There will eventually be a massive VIX event that pushes it high. When it does, we can come in with OTM cheap puts and make bank. Still likely a few months out.
rule of 8 has you buy puts or short it at VIX of $36, then sell these at $28, holding a few for a push down to $20. Maybe hold a runner for sub 20, but I'd be out by 20.
NFLX buying
VIX 20 puts are awful cheap right now for next week or the following. maybe a lotto play for tomorrow if we get a run?
I think you're on the right path for yourself, no need to change. I sit at a computer all day and can be very active. Everyone's trading style is different and you're doing a good job with yours.BaylorSpineGuy said:
Glad someone profited! I'm always reluctant to buy more shares of something at a lower price if it's falling. Maybe I need to get over that.
I like that.BREwmaster said:
rule of 8 has you buy puts or short it at VIX of $36, then sell these at $28, holding a few for a push down to $20. Maybe hold a runner for sub 20, but I'd be out by 20.
Tomorrow's rate hike with be 75bps (which I think is priced in). The next move will depend on what Powell says in tomorrow's press conference. Does he think we need more aggressive hikes to fight inflation or does he say we're close to neutral and sees smaller rate hikes in the future?
Fed’s Third Straight 0.75-Point Interest-Rate Rise Is Anticipated https://t.co/IHQHsh8RmM
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) September 20, 2022
I see a volatility crush the next few days after the FED announcement.
Then another bear market RIP.
Thoughts?
Then another bear market RIP.
Thoughts?
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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I'll keep this apolitical -
The radical liberals decided yesterday to release for sale another 10 million barrels of crude out of the SPR for November! Out of the 6 month(March-Sep)/180 million barrel initial release, there have been 155 million barrels drawn out. Rad Libs know they have to keep the gasoline price at the pump cheap to try and maintain a voting base. The 180 million barrel release did not take them to November 8th. (I'm not sure that was a miscalculation either.) The additional 10 million will put them over the line. After November 8th, this Administration really doesn't care about energy cost to Americans, because Republicans & Conservatives, after retaking both Houses, will be in-charge of refilling the SPR while oil prices surge, pump prices escalate and the Republicans & Conservatives get blamed for it all. OPEC+ missed the August quota mark again by 3.583 mbd,...just enough to offset that leak at the SPR. (Saudi is not going to let the crude price drop below $80) As soon as the SPR releases stop, the S&D will reflect the shortage 2 weeks after. Otherwise, Saudi takes the belt off and whips Brandon before November 8th.
As for JPOWELL, it's all priced in.....whatever..
Regarding that Cem Carsen video a few pages back, he comments on interest rates going to 4,...5,....6...and maybe even 7%,....careful guys, I don't think Cem realizes that 6 and 7% interest rate will consume the entire Federal budget. On the other hand, maybe JPOWELL doesn't care about budget consumption because getting a chance to play Paul Volcker 2.0 is exhilarating stuff.
Have a great day and make a bunch of money!
The radical liberals decided yesterday to release for sale another 10 million barrels of crude out of the SPR for November! Out of the 6 month(March-Sep)/180 million barrel initial release, there have been 155 million barrels drawn out. Rad Libs know they have to keep the gasoline price at the pump cheap to try and maintain a voting base. The 180 million barrel release did not take them to November 8th. (I'm not sure that was a miscalculation either.) The additional 10 million will put them over the line. After November 8th, this Administration really doesn't care about energy cost to Americans, because Republicans & Conservatives, after retaking both Houses, will be in-charge of refilling the SPR while oil prices surge, pump prices escalate and the Republicans & Conservatives get blamed for it all. OPEC+ missed the August quota mark again by 3.583 mbd,...just enough to offset that leak at the SPR. (Saudi is not going to let the crude price drop below $80) As soon as the SPR releases stop, the S&D will reflect the shortage 2 weeks after. Otherwise, Saudi takes the belt off and whips Brandon before November 8th.
As for JPOWELL, it's all priced in.....whatever..
Regarding that Cem Carsen video a few pages back, he comments on interest rates going to 4,...5,....6...and maybe even 7%,....careful guys, I don't think Cem realizes that 6 and 7% interest rate will consume the entire Federal budget. On the other hand, maybe JPOWELL doesn't care about budget consumption because getting a chance to play Paul Volcker 2.0 is exhilarating stuff.
Have a great day and make a bunch of money!
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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I scalped TSLA calls and SPX puts early and made a small amount. Then I got popped on SPX calls and lost that plus some of my profit from yesterday. I'm still green for the week, but I really should have not traded today at all. I thought about that, but I liked that setup of SPX coming back to the mean after bouncing from 3850.
SPY obeying a perfect downward channel on the 1m
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Interesting volume on SAVA the last 20 minutes. Could be insider buying or a pumper starting to create liquidity? Touching the 200-ema now.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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TSLA with a big volume green candle.
Charismatic Megafauna
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AG
I bought a couple nov cpe 45 calls for 2.5
I saw that too. There were some floor purchases of deep ITM calls as well (about $200k) worth. Someone always knows. Hope this is Remi finally buyingBob Knights Liver said:
Interesting volume on SAVA the last 20 minutes. Could be insider buying or a pumper starting to create liquidity? Touching the 200-ema now.
Charismatic Megafauna
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AG
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
I'll keep this apolitical -
The radical liberals...
Lol!
SAVA
SEC Case Closing Recommendation Made, Per SEC Guidelines Case Closing Recommendation Is Made When 'No Enforcement Action Will Be Recommended' And 'So Resources Can Be Redirected To Investigations That Will Be More Productive.' See SEC Enforcement Manual
BENZINGA 10:07 AM ET 9/20/2022
SEC Case Closing Recommendation Made, Per SEC Guidelines Case Closing Recommendation Is Made When 'No Enforcement Action Will Be Recommended' And 'So Resources Can Be Redirected To Investigations That Will Be More Productive.' See SEC Enforcement Manual
BENZINGA 10:07 AM ET 9/20/2022
310 has been BIG resistance. The rally is on now.Bob Knights Liver said:
TSLA with a big volume green candle.
for me it needs over 315 to be a breakout
Longer trend agree 315 is next up. 310 had been recent resistance.
How or where can you tell what the market is pricing in as far as 75bps v. 100bps?
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