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ProgN
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Eliminatus said:

I chose an absolutely terrible time to start getting into this….
Trust me when I say this. You'll gain way more market knowledge from your mistakes during a bear market that will benefit you in ways you can't even fathom down the road. Pain drives home lessons and you really don't experience that during a bull run. People that learn during a bull market, when you can throw darts at a stock sheet an make money, usually end in disaster "because they've figured it all out". This leads to costly mistakes because overconfidence leads them to taking on more risk and blowing up their accounts. Stay the course and take this **** market and learn from your mistakes. It will repay you 100 fold in the future, I promise.
FJ43
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ProgN said:

Eliminatus said:

I chose an absolutely terrible time to start getting into this….
Trust me when I say this. You'll gain way more market knowledge from your mistakes during a bear market that will benefit you in ways you can't even fathom down the road. Pain drives home lessons and you really don't experience that during a bull run. People that learn during a bull market, when you can throw darts at a stock sheet an make money, usually end in disaster "because they've figured it all out". This leads to costly mistakes because overconfidence leads them to taking on more risk and blowing up their accounts. Stay the course and take this **** market and learn from your mistakes. It will repay you 100 fold in the future, I promise.
This
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

spud1910
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AG
ProgN said:

Eliminatus said:

I chose an absolutely terrible time to start getting into this….
Trust me when I say this. You'll gain way more market knowledge from your mistakes during a bear market that will benefit you in ways you can't even fathom down the road. Pain drives home lessons and you really don't experience that during a bull run. People that learn during a bull market, when you can throw darts at a stock sheet an make money, usually end in disaster "because they've figured it all out". This leads to costly mistakes because overconfidence leads them to taking on more risk and blowing up their accounts. Stay the course and take this **** market and learn from your mistakes. It will repay you 100 fold in the future, I promise.
Lots of wisdom here.
BlueTaze
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BlueTaze said:

$30,000 Millionaire said:

New lows coming. Cramer just said we would end the year well.


We do end year well, but after Cramer capitulates in the 3800 range, sells his longs, and reverses his prediction to year end doom.


So Cramer is now super bearish. Says more downside to come due to aggressive fed and corporate media fud.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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BlueTaze said:

I'm hedged for this retest, but man if this ends up being a fake breakdown, it will be an epic squeeze. So many more TA traders these days, all with same short bias on this trendline break


I think this can't be overstated. So many folks position themselves short these days. I haven't traded bear markets before, but I have to believe some of these little rips up are exaggerated by too much money getting their hands caught in the cookie jar overextended short.
FJ43
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Quick dirty chart.

SPX

The circled area is of great interest. Intersection of 2020 & 2022 low trendline, support and 200ema on a weekly view.

Do we get a double bottom on a weekly in that zone?
Do we flush below?
The uptrend and downtrend conveniently intersect about 1/9/23
Model T shown for 2020 low and 2022 high

Red trendline below is 2009-2020 lows.





For the Fib guys.....

Model T and Fib 50 same overlapping line.

Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

BaylorSpineGuy
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ProgN said:

Eliminatus said:

I chose an absolutely terrible time to start getting into this….
Trust me when I say this. You'll gain way more market knowledge from your mistakes during a bear market that will benefit you in ways you can't even fathom down the road. Pain drives home lessons and you really don't experience that during a bull run. People that learn during a bull market, when you can throw darts at a stock sheet an make money, usually end in disaster "because they've figured it all out". This leads to costly mistakes because overconfidence leads them to taking on more risk and blowing up their accounts. Stay the course and take this **** market and learn from your mistakes. It will repay you 100 fold in the future, I promise.


Wise words. I've kept a tight leash on trading even when I'm confident because I made a couple silly ones a number of months back and it really set me back. Work has made it tough as well, but was off this week and chilling at the beach. Made nearly $4000 this week in my small account and I never felt like I was gambling. Contained risk and avoiddd over trading. Actually went long this morning but closed it due to all the chop. Liking this style of not trading just to get in on the action. Look for a rally to 397 range is my guess for Model T. Tricky FOMC week tho.
Bnels1323
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AG


It is becoming impressive
ProgN
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BaylorSpineGuy said:

ProgN said:

Eliminatus said:

I chose an absolutely terrible time to start getting into this….
Trust me when I say this. You'll gain way more market knowledge from your mistakes during a bear market that will benefit you in ways you can't even fathom down the road. Pain drives home lessons and you really don't experience that during a bull run. People that learn during a bull market, when you can throw darts at a stock sheet an make money, usually end in disaster "because they've figured it all out". This leads to costly mistakes because overconfidence leads them to taking on more risk and blowing up their accounts. Stay the course and take this **** market and learn from your mistakes. It will repay you 100 fold in the future, I promise.


Wise words. I've kept a tight leash on trading even when I'm confident because I made a couple silly ones a number of months back and it really set me back. Work has made it tough as well, but was off this week and chilling at the beach. Made nearly $4000 this week in my small account and I never felt like I was gambling. Contained risk and avoiddd over trading. Actually went long this morning but clos it due to all the chop. Liking this style of not trading just to get in on the action. Look for a rally to 397 range is my guess for Model T. Tricky FOMC week tho.
Very solid post and illustrates your maturation in a new realm, excellent. You've learned that sometimes the best move is not to make one and that the market is a vehicle and not a casino. Your mind is processing things, learning and will become a way to financially benefit your family at the same time you're giving a patient a second chance in life in surgery. Getting paid twice is very rewarding. No condescension intended, but you've come a LONG way from where you started, keep it up doc.

Side note, I wish the market was taught to kids during their 4 years in high school instead of only being introduced during a lesson. Too many people are intimidated by the market because it's new. The market isn't hard and just by following things daily teaches you trends, even if you don't trade that day. The market still fascinates me. everyday. Like 30K'sey sig says, which is so incredible, "You don't trade for money, you trade for freedom". God forbid anyone is ever in a wreck and comes out as quadriplegic, then they can still provide via their mind. It also gives you options should you get laid off or telling a ******* boss to ****off. That's why my son will know the market and how to trade before he goes to college.
irish pete ag06
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ProgN said:

Eliminatus said:

I chose an absolutely terrible time to start getting into this….
Trust me when I say this. You'll gain way more market knowledge from your mistakes during a bear market that will benefit you in ways you can't even fathom down the road. Pain drives home lessons and you really don't experience that during a bull run. People that learn during a bull market, when you can throw darts at a stock sheet an make money, usually end in disaster "because they've figured it all out". This leads to costly mistakes because overconfidence leads them to taking on more risk and blowing up their accounts. Stay the course and take this **** market and learn from your mistakes. It will repay you 100 fold in the future, I promise.


I started actively trading in late 2020. So much this. February 2021 is my portfolio's all time high and I still got miles to go to get back to that number. This man speaks the truth as truthful as you can speak it.

I wish I had started much later. Not during that time. Stocks only went up my first 3-6 months of trading.
YNWA_AG
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Carioca Corredor said:

My bf from high school predicts S&P slide to 3400 and maybe 3000

Morgan Stanley Expects S&P 500 to Decline by 13% in 2022

On September 6, Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson slashed his forecast for market earnings for 2022. Mr. Wilson noted that an economic slowdown is expected to impact equity markets more than rising inflation and aggressive Fed policies. Michael Wilson now expects earnings per share growth to contract by 3% in 2023, and this is without assuming a recession. Mr. Wilson said that Morgan Stanley expects to see significantly more negative EPS revisions in the back half of 2022 and into 2023 than the bank had "seen in the past several cycles". Michael Wilson forecasted that the market is expected to bottom in the fourth quarter of 2022. Further, he expects the S&P 500 to fall to $3,400 in 2022, down 13% from its current levels, and in the event of a recession, Mr. Wilson expects the S&P 500 to fall to $3000 by year-end. As of September 15, 2022, the S&P 500 has lost 18.3% year to date.


I thought OA or 30k mentioned the pre Covid high level which is around that 3400.
oldarmy1
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AG
Howdy all - Read back through a few pages and some good thoughts. First thing I will tell you is Bear markets almost always end with a major flush low. Therefore, you trade any waves up as opportunities for the downside until that occurs.

Prices can get worse. Much worse, so don't fall in love with current support levels. Yes, you use them until they fail, but know that nothing is sacred. No stock is immune.

Is there anyone not trading Model T anymore? It's clearly been my #1 strategy for 20+ years and it's still just as effective today. So that's the first thing I'll highlight. The second thing is a couple of Bear market strategies on stocks. I'll use NET because I actively tweeted this in real time each step of the way.

I'll pick up from the initial low under $40. I had tweeted starting to buy NET at $45 and every $3 lower. I got $42 and $39 buys in. My strategy for new entries is to buy shares and sell covered calls on 50% either immediately or if you watch intraday bands you can grab a small boost on call premium and Put price. I go out around 45 days, but have gone out 60 days for the call premium. The Put side I cut the timeframe in half. Why? Because the macro markets are actively in a downtrend. You use that to your advantage. NET call premium was $6 a couple of dollars above the share price. So you capture $6 plus $2 if those shares are called out. The Puts for 100% coverage were $2.75 at the closest dollar higher than shares, so you go with those.

NET shot up above $80! My last sells tweeted were at $78.50 because we were approaching the 200DMA on the macro markets. Now someone likely is saying "but the 50% of shares used for the put/call strategy only made you $8 - $2.75 = $5.25/share, and you would have made over $35/share if you just held shares.".

First, reading back through this thread, $5.25/share GAIN looks pretty darn good. But you miss the entire concept of the strategy, and that is it allows me to take massive positions and sleep at night. I had 30k NET shares because there really isn't a cap on the size, due to the protection side of the strategy.

Ok, so there you have a static approach to the strategy. Now, here is the advanced opportunity. I'll use the current wave down as the example. First thing is as I was selling my last shares into the 200DMA I was buying Oct 14 NET Puts back down at Model T $60. You want to take a look at NET price low this week? Allow me to help. $57.06. THREE days of challenging $57 to be exact.

So do you just buy in the money shares against the $60 Puts? Well those Puts have moved up from $3.10 to over $5, so I exit and bank the great gains on the Oct 14 Puts. I buy shares under $58, I went out to Oct 28 for covered calls for $5.50 premium on 50% of the shares and I bought Sept 30 $58 Puts for $3.10.

If the price hadn't come down flashing below Model T until late Sept then I would have simply stuck with the original Puts because they would be around $3 and only had the call premium side of the trade to enter.

I'm telling you guys losing money in a bear market learn to use options as the great equalizer.
irish pete ag06
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So I will follow up OA1's great post with absolutely nothing of substance
FJ43
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I'm so glad this board isn't like Premium. We have a special place here.

Tried reading it this week and just about every damn post is a meltdown, group think, snowflake infested, cloned topic and response.

I get it. I'm disappointed in last weekend too. But get a grip.

Even on bad days in the market with OUR money and livelihoods on the line.....we rise above, figure it out, get back on our horses and go win.



Rant over.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

FJ43
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Pro stuff OA. Thanks for always sharing with the board.

Pin, copy, print or whatever these types of posts gents and go back and reread them over time.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

spud1910
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AG
Thanks OA! I follow you on Twitter and that's great, but having you here is even better.
Bnels1323
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AG
Agreed. If you take in too much of that board, you will think the world is falling apart.
GreasenUSA
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FJ43 said:

I get it. I'm disappointed in last weekend too. But get a grip.
I'll tell you what; a win tonight would do wonders for my blood pressure.
FJ43
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GreasenUSA said:

FJ43 said:

I get it. I'm disappointed in last weekend too. But get a grip.
I'll tell you what; a win tonight would do wonders for my blood pressure.
Watch them get the red ass and run the table the rest of the season. Nothing would surprise me.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
I almost completely stopped giving a crap about Aggie football sometime during the Sumlin era. I was so pissed about having to pay 3X more for my old section 203 seats for a piss poor field product and I realized I was spending a lot of money and time not to enjoy myself.

Life's been a lot better in the fall after coming to that realization.
sts7049
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AG
i appreciate your insights, but it's difficult to follow your leads a lot of times. i don't think i'm the only one. i understand options fine, but i read that 3 times and i'm still not clear exactly.

plus, very few here have your bankroll to really take advantage of the strategy. if i have to buy 100 shares of something to sell a call, that's gonna limit my ability to do much else.
Bnels1323
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AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:

I almost completely stopped giving a crap about Aggie football sometime during the Sumlin era. I was so pissed about having to pay 3X more for my old section 203 seats for a piss poor field product and I realized I was spending a lot of money and time not to enjoy myself.

Life's been a lot better in the fall after coming to that realization.
This wouldn't work for me. How else would I ruin my Saturdays?
Philip J Fry
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AG
Bnels1323 said:

$30,000 Millionaire said:

I almost completely stopped giving a crap about Aggie football sometime during the Sumlin era. I was so pissed about having to pay 3X more for my old section 203 seats for a piss poor field product and I realized I was spending a lot of money and time not to enjoy myself.

Life's been a lot better in the fall after coming to that realization.
This wouldn't work for me. How else would I ruin my Saturdays?


Trade crypto's
Philip J Fry
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AG
oldarmy1 said:

Howdy all - Read back through a few pages and some good thoughts. First thing I will tell you is Bear markets almost always end with a major flush low. Therefore, you trade any waves up as opportunities for the downside until that occurs.

Prices can get worse. Much worse, so don't fall in love with current support levels. Yes, you use them until they fail, but know that nothing is sacred. No stock is immune.

Is there anyone not trading Model T anymore? It's clearly been my #1 strategy for 20+ years and it's still just as effective today. So that's the first thing I'll highlight. The second thing is a couple of Bear market strategies on stocks. I'll use NET because I actively tweeted this in real time each step of the way.

I'll pick up from the initial low under $40. I had tweeted starting to buy NET at $45 and every $3 lower. I got $42 and $39 buys in. My strategy for new entries is to buy shares and sell covered calls on 50% either immediately or if you watch intraday bands you can grab a small boost on call premium and Put price. I go out around 45 days, but have gone out 60 days for the call premium. The Put side I cut the timeframe in half. Why? Because the macro markets are actively in a downtrend. You use that to your advantage. NET call premium was $6 a couple of dollars above the share price. So you capture $6 plus $2 if those shares are called out. The Puts for 100% coverage were $2.75 at the closest dollar higher than shares, so you go with those.

NET shot up above $80! My last sells tweeted were at $78.50 because we were approaching the 200DMA on the macro markets. Now someone likely is saying "but the 50% of shares used for the put/call strategy only made you $8 - $2.75 = $5.25/share, and you would have made over $35/share if you just held shares.".

First, reading back through this thread, $5.25/share GAIN looks pretty darn good. But you miss the entire concept of the strategy, and that is it allows me to take massive positions and sleep at night. I had 30k NET shares because there really isn't a cap on the size, due to the protection side of the strategy.

Ok, so there you have a static approach to the strategy. Now, here is the advanced opportunity. I'll use the current wave down as the example. First thing is as I was selling my last shares into the 200DMA I was buying Oct 14 NET Puts back down at Model T $60. You want to take a look at NET price low this week? Allow me to help. $57.06. THREE days of challenging $57 to be exact.

So do you just buy in the money shares against the $60 Puts? Well those Puts have moved up from $3.10 to over $5, so I exit and bank the great gains on the Oct 14 Puts. I buy shares under $58, I went out to Oct 28 for covered calls for $5.50 premium on 50% of the shares and I bought Sept 30 $58 Puts for $3.10.

If the price hadn't come down flashing below Model T until late Sept then I would have simply stuck with the original Puts because they would be around $3 and only had the call premium side of the trade to enter.

I'm telling you guys losing money in a bear market learn to use options as the great equalizer.



How do you screen for model Ts?
Ragoo
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AG
sts7049 said:

i appreciate your insights, but it's difficult to follow your leads a lot of times. i don't think i'm the only one. i understand options fine, but i read that 3 times and i'm still not clear exactly.

plus, very few here have your bankroll to really take advantage of the strategy. if i have to buy 100 shares of something to sell a call, that's gonna limit my ability to do much else.


Bought 30,000 shares beginning at $45 down to $39 in $3 increments. Sold 60 day Out call on 15,000 shares at $44 strike. Pocket $6 on those shares plus $2 in upside. Keep the balance 15,000 shares to run. Buy 30,000 shares worth of put options at Some lower strike for 2.75. Unknown the lower strike.

I too wish he would type a little more clearly and show the math. I am a visual person so need to see the calculations to really understand.

Edit: wrong emoji
Brewmaster
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AG
Bnels1323 said:

$30,000 Millionaire said:

I almost completely stopped giving a crap about Aggie football sometime during the Sumlin era. I was so pissed about having to pay 3X more for my old section 203 seats for a piss poor field product and I realized I was spending a lot of money and time not to enjoy myself.

Life's been a lot better in the fall after coming to that realization.
This wouldn't work for me. How else would I ruin my Saturdays?
buy a boat, lol. In all seriousness, I went with the little man and wife to Lake Bryan yesterday. We don't have a boat (or need one really), but had a blast just going for a swim, then we went for pizza in downtown Bryan after. We were amazed we had the lake almost to ourselves. Sometimes we go for a hike first, but it was a bit hot and humid. The water was nice and cool, little man loved collecting rocks and of course getting some practice swimming.

I still went to the game last night (have a good friend that offered me tickets), but first time I'd been in a few years. I too though am like 30k. I took a huge step back from Aggie football (mostly emotionally) right before Sumlin's UCLA game...I wish I could time the markets that well, ha! Life has been much better since.

It also shocked me how many grown men were so pissed still about App State. The players are kids at the end of the day, cut em a little slack. They're here for an education too. We should want them to grow as men of God and human beings as well at the end of the day. Once they hang up their cleats they will need to rely on other skills.

have a great Sunday all!
FJ43
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Ags won.

Tomorrow we get to trade.

That's all.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

SoTXAg09
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AG
ANET looks like it could be tradeable with support at 111-114 back up to 125 pretty easily if it reverses. Could get some good R/R here.

Philip J Fry
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AG
Been a while since I've done this....

All US equities for the year.



Top 15 for the year:



Top 15 for the month



# of US Equities trading over 120EMa



Current holding PED:



This is my weekly pic: DSX. Looks like it's nearing a local bottom.


All in all, looking for 20% swings. Not looking for homeruns here, though I'd like one. How the heck did we miss STNG!?
FJ43
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Last sentence. Never forget the overall trend. Anything else is tactical.


Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
$ADBE is getting cheap enough to sell puts in.
irish pete ag06
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AG
FJ43 said:


Last sentence. Never forget the overall trend. Anything else is tactical.



Since I've adopted using the system as a part of my trade plan (10 and 50 SMA on the 30 minute chart)... I've had the most success I've ever had. I leave the SPX 30 minute chart up all times throughout the day... even when I'm just scalping.

I use a 5 minute and even a 1 minute on entry and exit, but my overall decision is based on the 30 minute chart and the 10 and 50 SMA.
ProgN
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I know we have some professionals in the O&G sector in here and I trust your experience more than Google's.

What is the profit margin for XOM and CVX?

I believe I've read it's something like 8-10% vs. say AAPL, GOOG, FB's 30%, Is this accurate or am I misremembering?
jimmo
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irish pete ag06 said:

FJ43 said:


Last sentence. Never forget the overall trend. Anything else is tactical.



Since I've adopted using the system as a part of my trade plan (10 and 50 SMA on the 30 minute chart)... I've had the most success I've ever had. I leave the SPX 30 minute chart up all times throughout the day... even when I'm just scalping.

I use a 5 minute and even a 1 minute on entry and exit, but my overall decision is based on the 30 minute chart and the 10 and 50 SMA.
sorry, guess I missed you discussing it
what is "the system"?
is it Ripster's ?
Good to see it's working for you
irish pete ag06
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AG
jimmo said:

irish pete ag06 said:

FJ43 said:


Last sentence. Never forget the overall trend. Anything else is tactical.



Since I've adopted using the system as a part of my trade plan (10 and 50 SMA on the 30 minute chart)... I've had the most success I've ever had. I leave the SPX 30 minute chart up all times throughout the day... even when I'm just scalping.

I use a 5 minute and even a 1 minute on entry and exit, but my overall decision is based on the 30 minute chart and the 10 and 50 SMA.
sorry, guess I missed you discussing it
what is "the system"?
is it Ripster's ?
Good to see it's working for you
It's kind of a haughty name, but it's just a simple system that the twitter guy Brian Jones came up with to trade. It essentially uses the 10 and 50 SMA on the 30 minute chart. Bearish bias or bullish bias is set by it.



That video is a different twitter dude explaining it.

Here's a presentation about it.

https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1HJih6O1-yhdIefuQQAZpauMpPtL0-wQh2hMEFe7cFIU/edit?usp=sharing


I don't trade it rigidly like a robot. It's just something I use to help the overall methodology.
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