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FJ43
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8:33p, 9/15/22
Just my 2 cents.....

I'm not going long or short other than trades here. I don't mind sitting on mostly cash, having a little fun scalping, avoiding drawdown and just creating cash flow trades and spending money for momma FJ. Calls, puts, selling premium, etc. I focus on trading just a couple things. Slow and steady in this market.

Example is I sold all of my $GOLD leaps. Took the 20%+ in what a week or so. Price is already below my original cost since I sold. No reason to not capture a 20% gain IMO. Yes I'll look to buy again and rinse and repeat.

I do look for value each night (30k referred to R/S) as well but not finding a lot. What I do find I keep a short leash on and am patient to let price come to me.

I agree with 30k. I think we will have more net downside with chop on the way. Maybe a grind down after that big impulse move.

Could be wrong....but....For me it's a bear trend until it isn't.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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8:53p, 9/15/22
This from Deemer on Tuesday and then Wednesday.

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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to FJ43 • 8:53p, 9/15/22
I should be followed you. I nearly sold my GOLD leaps up nearly 30% but held too long and sold for minimal gain. Oh well, capital preservation.
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FJ43
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In reply to Brewmaster • 9:04p, 9/15/22
BREwmaster said:
and you typically buy tomorrow or near expiration on these? and you bought the puts where, near 395 or the rejection of the top of the channel? (we were bouncing around, until today). Looked like 396 to 392 roughly.

this would work a lot better for me than trying to pull off a 15 minute scalp at the end of the day.

and well done!
In terms of expiration I would normally go out a week on Thursdays. But with the last 2 days action vs the daily chart I've been posting went with tomorrow expiry.

Pretty close. I had SRs using 1hr, 4hr and daily I drew last night then set alerts just below and above. I locked in an alert at prior days high and low as well.

I had literally 7 hours of meetings today so trades were made at a conference table with a alert text after the Apple Watch told me it was time. Quick look at my 1 volume & 5 min EMAs. It was blocking and tackling trading. Nothing fancy.

Cut alert didn't go off so just checked it here and here and once up set the trailing stop to lock it in. Sure left money on the table getting washed out on a mini spike but one 30% and one 40% trade I'll take it. Those are probably 2-3x at open now if the slide holds. Don't tell momma FJ.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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irish pete ag06
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 9:05p, 9/15/22
AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:
I don't like that Cem tries to sound smart. Speaking in language anyone can understand is the true gift.


Dude obviously knows his stuff but your exactly right.

I guess it comes with the territory for someone named Jim but spelled like he does.
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FJ43
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 9:15p, 9/15/22
BaylorSpineGuy said:
I should be followed you. I nearly sold my GOLD leaps up nearly 30% but held too long and sold for minimal gain. Oh well, capital preservation.
Good job you took the gain and locked in profit. Early on I found taking gains and cutting were two of the hardest disciplines of trading.

I may buy back here.....back test trend line and at a SR.

Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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BaylorSpineGuy
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9:32p, 9/15/22
My guess is it goes lower. GOLD is gonna struggle, I think, and dollar strength is gonna be a problem. The recent advance was on lower volume than the selling volume today. That may be a tell….who knows?

I think the macro environment is gonna make gold tough especially if deflation sets in. Even this recent inflationary time has tortured gold.
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FJ43
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 9:38p, 9/15/22
I suspect a little lower as well. Have set an alert at 14.90. Target first entry 14.75. Leaps so time.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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lobwedgephil
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9:47p, 9/15/22
Decent amount of GOLD dip buyers came in this afternoon, they bought out to November.
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BaylorSpineGuy
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9:51p, 9/15/22
I bought 400P for 10/14 on Monday morning after the it had closed a Model T at 410ish. I bought puts around 411 or so.

I decided to pay up for the premium because I felt the next impulsive move would be downward but wasn't sure on timing. Obviously, the big dump on Tuesday. I held all day cause I thought this leg down would carry us toward June lows. It wasn't a huge trade but decent $ amt. anyway, I hit 100% gain around 394-395 range and I cut half. I have dont's to hold these last couple through the chop yesterday and today before it gave out late.

I still haven't sold and am hoping for more downward pressure. Currently up 140% or more on the remaining puts in this trade.
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Bnels1323
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10:01p, 9/15/22
AG
Sorry if already mentioned but mortgage rates surpassed 6% for first time since 08. What are your thoughts on what happens next?
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$30,000 Millionaire
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In reply to Bnels1323 • 10:08p, 9/15/22
AG
Bnels1323 said:
Sorry if already mentioned but mortgage rates surpassed 6% for first time since 08. What are your thoughts on what happens next?


We still need to connect!

High rates will suppress demand and lower prices. Or at least slow price increases. I bought a house in 2008 and my mortgage rate on it was 5.875%. I thought I was getting the deal of the century when I got 4.375% on a refi a couple of years later.

We are basically in for a grind for a bit.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 10:10p, 9/15/22
AG
BaylorSpineGuy said:
I bought 400P for 10/14 on Monday morning after the it had closed a Model T at 410ish. I bought puts around 411 or so.

I decided to pay up for the premium because I felt the next impulsive move would be downward but wasn't sure on timing. Obviously, the big dump on Tuesday. I held all day cause I thought this leg down would carry us toward June lows. It wasn't a huge trade but decent $ amt. anyway, I hit 100% gain around 394-395 range and I cut half. I have dont's to hold these last couple through the chop yesterday and today before it gave out late.

I still haven't sold and am hoping for more downward pressure. Currently up 140% or more on the remaining puts in this trade.


You may want to roll up to a lower strike. The move will be greater if it continues going down. I will caution that when everyone is bearish there will be short squeezes.
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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 10:12p, 9/15/22
Like a 395P? What would that do for me? Doesn't the delta move more if it's deeper in the money?
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lobwedgephil
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 10:15p, 9/15/22
BaylorSpineGuy said:
I bought 400P for 10/14 on Monday morning after the it had closed a Model T at 410ish. I bought puts around 411 or so.

I decided to pay up for the premium because I felt the next impulsive move would be downward but wasn't sure on timing. Obviously, the big dump on Tuesday. I held all day cause I thought this leg down would carry us toward June lows. It wasn't a huge trade but decent $ amt. anyway, I hit 100% gain around 394-395 range and I cut half. I have dont's to hold these last couple through the chop yesterday and today before it gave out late.

I still haven't sold and am hoping for more downward pressure. Currently up 140% or more on the remaining puts in this trade.
Nice trade, set a stop you are comfortable with. Nothing wrong with riding it down more with trade management, you have time. Tomorrow is all Quad Witch, so expect some wild swings.

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wanderer
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 10:15p, 9/15/22
Roll back and lower (sooner date, lower strike price). Can capture profit and keep your Delta the same if that's what you're looking for. For example, 10/3 396P has the same delta (-.76) as the 10/14 400p and you could lock in $4-5 per contract. For me though, I wouldn't worry about the delta and would roll the far ITM put into something more ATM or OTM.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 10:29p, 9/15/22
AG
BaylorSpineGuy said:
Like a 395P? What would that do for me? Doesn't the delta move more if it's deeper in the money?


My man, at this point you are just moving with the index because your delta is probably 1. If you roll down to OTM, you are locking in your profit and the options can increase faster in price with continued down movement. Delta can change you know. Gamma, yo.

You could also create a diagonal. Sell a shorter dated OTM put set against your 400s.
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FJ43
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3:50a, 9/16/22

Mornun!

Brothers….. I sure miss lotto Friday with y'all !!!
Too much damn fun for someone on here not to pick up the torch and provide some call outs for the board each week. For the love of all trading degenerates someone grab the torch.

US = Red
EU = Red
Asia = Red
VIX up (…I'll exit most of the VIX calls bought today)

I'd expect swings today for OPEX. Lots of movement.
May lotto some calls for next Wednesday expiry at a low today.

Congrats to all those that played the charts right.

Baylor congrats on the short trade. I'd roll as well, lock in profits and with a month out yet trail away.

Go get'em today and get ready for the relief bounce we should get at some point in the days ahead.

Trade wisely!
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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FJ43
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 3:50a, 9/16/22
$30,000 Millionaire said:
BaylorSpineGuy said:
Like a 395P? What would that do for me? Doesn't the delta move more if it's deeper in the money?


My man, at this point you are just moving with the index because your delta is probably 1. If you roll down to OTM, you are locking in your profit and the options can increase faster in price with continued down movement. Delta can change you know. Gamma, yo.

You could also create a diagonal. Sell a shorter dated OTM put set against your 400s.


This
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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FJ43
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4:40a, 9/16/22

SPY

Some quick dirty levels for y'all to maybe trade against. We touched a low at the green line early premarket which is within cents of my white SR below it.

FWIW that lower red trend line in the red zone is the trend line from March 20' and June 22'.
Slay away gents.....

Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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DeangeloVickers
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6:25a, 9/16/22
AG
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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In reply to FJ43 • 6:35a, 9/16/22
Mornin, FJ.
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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6:41a, 9/16/22
Europe red, World Bank's chief economist warns of global economic slowdown and period of slow growth, US markets likely to open red. It feels like red opening with a furious green OPEX-crazed close. We'll see.

I'm watching the first 15 minutes and buying 9/23 weeklies for TSLA, QQQ, and/or AMZN in that direction with the intention of selling within 15 minutes. If these are big red candles, I will also look to lotto some 0 Dte XSP calls at or just under opening price.
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sts7049
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6:44a, 9/16/22
AG
3850-60 is a major level for mancini, so maybe we touch that then bounce
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$30,000 Millionaire
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7:05a, 9/16/22
AG
I'm trying to decide at what point I want to buy FedEx stock.
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FJ43
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In reply to Bob Knights Paper Hands • 7:15a, 9/16/22
Bob Knights Liver said:
Mornin, FJ.


Mornun!
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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In reply to sts7049 • 7:28a, 9/16/22
sts7049 said:
3850-60 is a major level for mancini, so maybe we touch that then bounce

This seems very plausible.
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Charismatic Megafauna
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In reply to Bob Knights Paper Hands • 7:35a, 9/16/22
AG
Bob Knights Liver said:
It feels like red opening with a furious green OPEX-crazed close.

I was going to guess red to green (edit). I meant to buy some cpe lottos yesterday, think I'll buy Novembers at open
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Carioca Corredor
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 7:53a, 9/16/22
AG
Pre market drop over $40 into low $160's. A google search draws multiple articles that many of their subcontractors going bankrupt. Maybe the beginnings of change in delivery business. But the Post Office keeps on keepin' on
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BaylorSpineGuy
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7:55a, 9/16/22
If anyone followed on the CPRX and FSLR trades I called out, those puts should be handsomely this morning. CPRX down nearly $1 today (was $13.62 at close yesterday) and FSLR is down below $130 now. I first called out the puts close to $140. I bought Nov 120's around the 137 range.

Will take some profits here and roll the puts up.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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7:59a, 9/16/22
AG
Pretty tough to gauge what to do today. This is a large gap. And SPX is going to open at -3.
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sts7049
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8:02a, 9/16/22
AG
welp, there is the touch. so let's see what happens now
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GreasenUSA
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8:03a, 9/16/22
AG
Pretty tough to gauge what the market is going to do = Pretty easy to gauge what I'm going to do: wait.
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M4 Benelli
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8:04a, 9/16/22
FedEx are still reporting higher earnings than last two pre-covid quarters and projecting earnings akin to Christmas of '19. Trimming more fat than Tess Holiday with an IG filter. CEO on the bearish side, and AMZ vertical integration wrenching them. Knee jerk reaction to removing guidance? Keeping an eye on it. Other more familiar tickers hitting dirt cheap range, so proceeding with what I peep.
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BlueTaze
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8:08a, 9/16/22
I think most of the move expected today happened overnight. May open around 3860 where Mancini and OA put support and potential relief bounce.
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