When we hit Model T today, I bought 400P for Oct expiry. My thought was that 400 is roughly Mode l T from this range to recent low.

However, I remember earlier this summer getting burned on one of these major economic releases because I was only trading one direction, so I bought some 415 weekly calls for this week to be hedged. And if it rallies up after this, I will close my calls and use the gains to buy more puts.

That's my thought at least….

More than anything I want a VIX spike to 30. But I'm sick like that....

For once I'm all for it. Tomorrow, please!

If you're interested in the G7 Price Cap Guidance on Russian Oil and Refined Products, here it is.

https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/126/cap_guidance_20220909.pdf

For the TL;DR crowd, it's an 8 page joke. That's why the Crude Cap is held off until Dec 5th and Refined Products Cap held off until Fed 2023. Allows enough time for backdoor deals.

Side Note: Developing news, Israel looking to come to Germany's rescue. Israel good for 10% NatGas of what Russia was sending Germany. Some irony in all this. https://www.jpost.com/business-and-innovation/all-news/article-716970

CPI: Tomorrow, I'm not expecting any drastic improvement. The measurement is YoY so we need a few more months out of the way for the math to reflect measurable improvement. But, who knows, maybe they'll change the calculation....President Obama did.

Janet Yellen says gas could spike in November. (These are some of America's brightest.) Farmer says "Gas WILL spike in November, if not before with SPR releases stopping."

Like I posted before,....amazing the media is starting to chirp about SPR crude releases and price now. They'll find a way to explain a crude oil S&D to the citizens after the mid-term election and gasoline is north of $6.

Alert: Brandon mentioned SPR releases to continue after October. The Administration was quick to correct Brandon and the end of SPR releases, but they did not use exacting language. Legally, they stop at the end of Sep (6 months), but the Administration wants all 180 million barrels out and they claim to need October to do it. If Brandon goes beyond 180 million barrels and tries to empty the SPR....lookout.

Mornun!

Well slight gap up early PM. I'll be watching the 200EMA in the mid 415s (seems like a magnet) but harder watch at 416.30s (my favorite level it seems) for rejection.

With CPI today and quarter shenanigans anything can happen.

My plan is if we move to the above levels, I'll take puts out into mid to late October and possibly add to them should we get to 420-23 in the days ahead plus sell covered calls on longs.

Currently I'm short with weeklies (410P) expiring Friday as a trade along with VIX calls expiring next week.

Trade wisely!

lobwedgephil said:

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CPI in the morning can blow up any technical setup, no way to know market reaction.

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Yes and regardless of the CPI or the tone of the presentation, we still won't know how the market will react. The first move isn't always the Move.

⚠️U.S. August CPI Due 8:30 a.m. ET; Seen Down 0.1%; Core Up 0.3%

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) September 13, 2022

Initial SPY move in PM trading knocked it down to 404.50. Market no likey.

Everyone thought we would see a decline with inflation because energy has dropped so much, but surprise! Inflation is still rising. 75bps is now a lock for this month's rate hike.

Fall fall fall away SPY

VIX shoot up all you want

Even tho protective call is gonna get obliterated, I'm actually happy this morning. My bias was a reversal and thus my bigger trade was 400P but I bought the 415C for this week as a protection. Felt less like gambling this time and thankful for that.

Triple_Bagger said:

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Everyone thought we would see a decline with inflation because energy has dropped so much, but surprise! Inflation is still rising. 75bps is now a lock for this month's rate hike.

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Aye, the same people who think we're not in a "recession" because the MSM re-defined the term.

i bought a chunk of ES-F 3900Ps last night. was sweating this morning but i just closed 80% of them for a 50% gain. now i can ride the chop

M4 Benelli said:

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Triple_Bagger said:

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Everyone thought we would see a decline with inflation because energy has dropped so much, but surprise! Inflation is still rising. 75bps is now a lock for this month's rate hike.

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Aye, the same people who think we're not in a "recession" because the MSM re-defined the term.

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I try to look at history when possible. Am currently listening to audio book called Grand Pursuit which looks at the development of study of political economy in 19th and 20th centuries.

Was listening to a chapter around start of WW1. Everyone including Churchill thought the war would last just a couple weeks after German invasion of Belgium. They couldn't have been more wrong.

I see inflation like this. People think it will easily go away or start to decline definitively but I suspect it's entrenched for a time. Even with how much energy dropped in August, it didn't matter.

We have to have longer time lens and look at history to understand these secular trends.

Triple_Bagger said:

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Everyone thought we would see a decline with inflation because energy has dropped so much, but surprise! Inflation is still rising. 75bps is now a lock for this month's rate hike.

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Gonna put on my Realtor hat for a second to expand on this...

The reason it's up is because of the lag between Housing Growth we've seen since start of '21 and how long it takes to hit the inflation report.

So it's safe to say that this is going to be further affected by those crazy ass rent growth prices you've seen/heard/experienced. The delay is between 8-10 months and I can tell you that the growths have not slowed down.

Golf1 said:

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Can anyone explain to me the difference on /ES on td Ameritrade and ES1! On trading view? I just recently started playing with trading view so this is what I'm looking at but I noticed how ES1! doesn't really correlate with spy and other stocks I'm looking at like /Es does.

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/ES is a continuous chart. ES1 is a shorthand for front month contract. If you want to be sure which chart you are on use the full date code.

The equity futures contracts expire every quarter and we happen to be at a point where we have a contract expiring this Friday. So you have /ESU2 and /ESZ2 in play right now. They are roughly 20 points different right now. What you are seeing in the charts is some charts are just the front month and some charts are a continuous chart and they switched contracts in the middle of the chart. /ES chart on TV switched Thursday after the close, so there was a gap up when the futures opened for example.

Chatter is the SPR releases that will be reported in this week's EIA report are larger than last week. That should be bearish WTI. No worries. The S&D don't lie. Pounding the desk,....once those SPR releases stop the truth cannot be hid anymore.

Buying opportunity in the energy sector this week and likely next. I sold XOM 9/23 $103 Covered Calls yesterday at $0.59. Wasn't patient enough, my original sell order was $0.75. I lowered to $0.59. Reached at least $0.80 thereafter. But, I'm good with the ROI.

No change on outlook. November, U.S. gasoline spike, likely NatGas spike, Germany going to freeze, XOM $120-ish by year end, WTI & Brent $105 to $110 by year end, Dec CPI report reflecting Nov data should start showing some economic improvement due to YoY math calculation but real data for the month could blow it up, Europe still not seeing reality and going Green (hope they freeze too), Germany and EU cant stop a Russian uranium shipment for France (nuke fuel) heading to Germany for processing because uranium/nuclear isn't in the sanctions, energy sector to yield returns through 2022 and 2023, XOM Q3 earnings should be close to record and expect a div increase.

Where is AustinAG?

Going to go pound on my drum.

See y'all!

Tried to tell you guys