Yeah but jobs report is basically the only positive report that has come out over the last year or so, and we have midterms in a few months.BaylorSpineGuy said:Ag CPA said:I'll go the opposite direction, if we have a strong jobs report (I hate a good news is bad news market) tomorrow, combined with a long weekend, I think that the S&P could drop 100. We will see…Charismatic Megafauna said:
I'm calling a $7 day tomorrow. In the up direction.There's a very strong seasonal pattern of Aug non-farm payrolls missing estimates… Aug ‘21 came in @ +235K compared to +750K expected. It's missed before revisions in 17 of 21 yrs to the downside. Over the past 7 yrs, the miss has been ~ 100K on avg. A chart👇: h/t @ForexLive
— Cem Karsan 🥐 (@jam_croissant) September 1, 2022
 pic.twitter.com/EK45EGGVHJ
I've given up predicting what the market will determine to be good or bad. But here's some interesting numbers.
Stock Markets
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Why is McCarthy vilifying day traders and putting them in same category as DC beauracrats? He needs to go. Im buying more SPY calls tmrw just to steal from middle class.
25 sec mark
25 sec mark
BlueTaze said:
Why is McCarthy vilifying day traders and putting them in same category as DC beauracrats? He needs to go. Im buying more SPY calls tmrw just to steal from middle class.
25 sec mark
I'm think he meant insider traders (Nancy says hello)
Bad jobs number, good for equities. Good jobs number, bad for equities. Good jobs number gives Fed more reason to keep the pedal down.BaylorSpineGuy said:Ag CPA said:I'll go the opposite direction, if we have a strong jobs report (I hate a good news is bad news market) tomorrow, combined with a long weekend, I think that the S&P could drop 100. We will see…Charismatic Megafauna said:
I'm calling a $7 day tomorrow. In the up direction.There's a very strong seasonal pattern of Aug non-farm payrolls missing estimates… Aug ‘21 came in @ +235K compared to +750K expected. It's missed before revisions in 17 of 21 yrs to the downside. Over the past 7 yrs, the miss has been ~ 100K on avg. A chart👇: h/t @ForexLive
— Cem Karsan 🥐 (@jam_croissant) September 1, 2022
 pic.twitter.com/EK45EGGVHJ
I've given up predicting what the market will determine to be good or bad. But here's some interesting numbers.
But yeah, never actually know the reaction until you see it.
Charismatic Megafauna
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AG
BaylorSpineGuy said:
Rally hat till OpEx and VIXperation?Vol suppression into 9/14 yes. pic.twitter.com/RRzkpQWbO2
— Cem Karsan 🥐 (@jam_croissant) September 1, 2022
My mental monolog is all messed up since learning that Cem rhymes with Jim, and he actually uses "vol" as a word in conversation
there was massive XOM buying into the close. It was right at the close, 16 mil shares, looking at 1 minute candle chart on my app (dark pool maybe? I have no idea).Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Previously mentioned, Saudi not liking WTI & Brent action. One of the best things that could happen is, on Monday when the market is closed, Saudi should announce a production cut from OPEC+ Sep 5th meeting. Talk about September 6th fireworks when the market opens!....This might actually happen.. I wouldn't be short energy over the long weekend.
OXY didn't see the same for what it's worth. and WTI had a big sell at the close 290k I believe.
I wish that were the case with XOM, but I'm not seeing it on the chart. 16M is about a daily average volume
Yes sirFJ43 said:
Did y'all win today?
only traded the first hour or so, but should've traded this downtrend break... I need to grow bigger balls and just trust the stops. Hmmmmm Nov 10,11 or 12c might be calling my name here.
LUMN
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
dark pool maybe? I have no idea, but it does show on my app (doesn't show in other places). and my app has been accurate before on dark pool buys.wanderer said:
I wish that were the case with XOM, but I'm not seeing it on the chart. 16M is about a daily average volume
Good call.
Gap and go please. Tuesday.lobwedgephil said:
Good call.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
FJ43 said:
Did y'all win today?
Did well on QQQ 297.5p early then a 299c late in the day.
Well played. No bias.HtownAg92 said:FJ43 said:
Did y'all win today?
Did well on QQQ 297.5p early then a 299c late in the day.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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I got a buddy on a different site that sent me a message that all major oils were getting bought in the last 10 minutes. Large green candles on XOM, CVX, COP, EOG, OXY, SLB, WMB, DVN and some others into the close. I don't have the ability to see those trades, so I guess dark pool.BREwmaster said:there was massive XOM buying into the close. It was right at the close, 16 mil shares, looking at 1 minute candle chart on my app (dark pool maybe? I have no idea).Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Previously mentioned, Saudi not liking WTI & Brent action. One of the best things that could happen is, on Monday when the market is closed, Saudi should announce a production cut from OPEC+ Sep 5th meeting. Talk about September 6th fireworks when the market opens!....This might actually happen.. I wouldn't be short energy over the long weekend.
OXY didn't see the same for what it's worth. and WTI had a big sell at the close 290k I believe.
Also, he noted that XOM Nov 18th expiration on 100's and 105's Calls saw 4,500 contracts of combined activity today ~$1 million, but yesterday was $2 million. I asked if he deemed as bearish and the reply was in normal cases yes, but in this case the number of buyers would indicate bullish.
Hope you're doing well!
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Last post for the night. My Corona is getting warm.
I'm picking up that the Iran deal will likely not make it. Should this be true, it's wildly bullish for energy. Who knows if the deal is dead or going to be signed, just chatter..
This article link below is great! I agree 100% with this fellow. All of this (article suggestions) could have happened if Brandon did not align himself with the Green Energy Hoax. Brandon made major enemies with U.S. Big Oil. I highly recommend this article. If I was POTUS, the Fed would be gone and I would have done the exact plan this fellow outlined. It's easy to agree with someone with like thinking..
https://www.foxbusiness.com/energy/billionaire-oil-refinery-owner-reveals-simple-solution-lower-inflation
Hope y'all make a lot of money tomorrow!
I'm picking up that the Iran deal will likely not make it. Should this be true, it's wildly bullish for energy. Who knows if the deal is dead or going to be signed, just chatter..
This article link below is great! I agree 100% with this fellow. All of this (article suggestions) could have happened if Brandon did not align himself with the Green Energy Hoax. Brandon made major enemies with U.S. Big Oil. I highly recommend this article. If I was POTUS, the Fed would be gone and I would have done the exact plan this fellow outlined. It's easy to agree with someone with like thinking..
https://www.foxbusiness.com/energy/billionaire-oil-refinery-owner-reveals-simple-solution-lower-inflation
Hope y'all make a lot of money tomorrow!
I'll play on the sept 9 calls on XOM. I trust your honest opinions on this. Makes sense.
It's a gamble
It's a gamble
I may need to buy back my sold calls on XOM expiring in October. Or I guess I could just buy some nearer term calls to offset
If lucky next week. Food/drinks on me in Waco. If we lose, oh well. Chalk it up
XOM sept 9 calls. Prob 100/105's
XOM sept 9 calls. Prob 100/105's
Not really as clean as your friend says. No real notable flow on XOM today. Though I am in oil so I hope he is correct. Nothing notable today on 100's Nov, but Nov 105's was a spread, buying 105's but also buying 65 puts as protection.Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:I got a buddy on a different site that sent me a message that all major oils were getting bought in the last 10 minutes. Large green candles on XOM, CVX, COP, EOG, OXY, SLB, WMB, DVN and some others into the close. I don't have the ability to see those trades, so I guess dark pool.BREwmaster said:there was massive XOM buying into the close. It was right at the close, 16 mil shares, looking at 1 minute candle chart on my app (dark pool maybe? I have no idea).Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Previously mentioned, Saudi not liking WTI & Brent action. One of the best things that could happen is, on Monday when the market is closed, Saudi should announce a production cut from OPEC+ Sep 5th meeting. Talk about September 6th fireworks when the market opens!....This might actually happen.. I wouldn't be short energy over the long weekend.
OXY didn't see the same for what it's worth. and WTI had a big sell at the close 290k I believe.
Also, he noted that XOM Nov 18th expiration on 100's and 105's Calls saw 4,500 contracts of combined activity today ~$1 million, but yesterday was $2 million. I asked if he deemed as bearish and the reply was in normal cases yes, but in this case the number of buyers would indicate bullish.
Hope you're doing well!
If you followed or took this trade yesterday when posted they will be up close to 50%+ at open should it maintain premarket.FJ43 said:
Buying XOM 100c for next week expiry. Lotto size and will manage them.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
OA has also been on the GOLD train yesterday. Well, it double bottomed yesterday with an inverted red hammer, and is trading up PM.
Could be time for to buy those LEAPS if not already done.
Could be time for to buy those LEAPS if not already done.
I already loaded those. I liked the trade after he originally posted and checked out the chart. Sat at the bid and lowered accordingly this week and filled like a sniper. Jan 24' 22CBaylorSpineGuy said:
OA has also been on the GOLD train yesterday. Well, it double bottomed yesterday with an inverted red hammer, and is trading up PM.
Could be time for to buy those LEAPS if not already done.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
Nice. I will look to join here. He called out the $20/22 call LEAPS but really all of the strikes are getting pounded and the deltas on all of them are attractive relative to price. The $17's looked nice to me but I'll follow smart money (you guys!).
FJ43 said:I already loaded those. I liked the trade after he originally posted and checked out the chart. Sat at the bid and lowered accordingly this week and filled like a sniper. Jan 24' 22CBaylorSpineGuy said:
OA has also been on the GOLD train yesterday. Well, it double bottomed yesterday with an inverted red hammer, and is trading up PM.
Could be time for to buy those LEAPS if not already done.
I'm in GOLD too. Down on the first loads but got more yesterday. Leaps so have plenty of time to come back on those first buys anyway. Need a weaker dollar on this one
What was your avg fill on those if you don't mind my asking?
Unemployment rate starting to rise. Markets go up
Dan Scott said:
Unemployment rate starting to rise. Markets go up
Think it's a signal that the interest rates are impacting the inflation caused by the massive domestic overspending, so maybe the rate increases won't come so fast
Is this a fade the first move day or this is the trend day?
Yep and looking at bonds, rates are unchanged from the news so bond market expecting further rate hikes. Until rates come down this makes me think equity markets jumping will be temporary.
I'd love to see a gap and run Friday that gives good opportunity for puts again next week. RSI right now in the 30s and allows it to reset for next move down.
I think I'm with you on that. A rip today might provide for some 0dte scalps but also for some good put entries next week.
We put in a nice bottoming candle yesterday. If you pull up a daily SPY chart, whenever there is a bottoming candle after a down trend, it usually results in a gap up the next day with at least 1 day of follow.
If SPY breaks 400 we run. If not we fade.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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I'm out today, so y'all keep the market between 3950 and 4020 for me today. I got my ass kicked a bit yesterday, trying to momentum trade too early. I gave up my entire profits for the week plus a couple hundred. Patience is a virtue, I guess.
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