Got it!Brian Earl Spilner said:Getting close to my $106 limit.Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
GOOGL sub $100,....anyone?
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Thanks brother! I'll play another round when she gets back up there.Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:Yes, I'm expecting a move back to ~$100 by 9/9. XOM once held a tight price relationship to WTI, but appears that relationship is clearly broken for all the reasons I've been citing. XOM with their share buyback and the DRIP I see strong support at Div Payout. After Div payout 9/9 to the end of Oct, XOM could dump, beware. Once earnings are announced the last week of Oct and SPR releases halt the end of Oct, should be a wild ride up. If the economy tanks, energy sector (to some degree) will fair better than the rest. OPEC+ meets Sep 5th. Saudi is not happy right now. G7 is meeting on Friday to discuss Russian Oil Price Caps.......what a laugher........just think about it this way.....A European speaking here,......."We hate you. We're going to enact sanctions we hope will destroy your economy. We're going to send weapons to kill your soldiers. But you have to sell us your gas and at the price we want to pay." ...... If there's a more funny joke, I'm listening..Ccutamu said:Farmer,Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
GOOGL sub $100,....anyone?
Since you popped in, what is your prognosis for XOM? It bounced off a trend line this morning so I bought back the Oct 105 calls for a nice 65% gain since Monday. Do you think it trends back upward to $100 before dividend pay date with oil taking a dive this week?
Bought CIDM first rebuys at .51
Not for everyone so make your own decision. No options to leverage.
Not for everyone so make your own decision. No options to leverage.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Previously mentioned, Saudi not liking WTI & Brent action. One of the best things that could happen is, on Monday when the market is closed, Saudi should announce a production cut from OPEC+ Sep 5th meeting. Talk about September 6th fireworks when the market opens!....This might actually happen.. I wouldn't be short energy over the long weekend.
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Previously mentioned, Saudi not liking WTI & Brent action. One of the best things that could happen is, on Monday when the market is closed, Saudi should announce a production cut from OPEC+ Sep 5th meeting. Talk about September 6th fireworks when the market opens!....This might actually happen.. I wouldn't be short energy over the long weekend.
Yeah, Biden has not been polite to them like Trump was. Probably some bad blood there. You might be right. WTI does seem artificially depressed to anyone paying attention.Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Previously mentioned, Saudi not liking WTI & Brent action. One of the best things that could happen is, on Monday when the market is closed, Saudi should announce a production cut from OPEC+ Sep 5th meeting. Talk about September 6th fireworks when the market opens!....This might actually happen.. I wouldn't be short energy over the long weekend.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Previously mentioned, Saudi not liking WTI & Brent action. One of the best things that could happen is, on Monday when the market is closed, Saudi should announce a production cut from OPEC+ Sep 5th meeting. Talk about September 6th fireworks when the market opens!....This might actually happen.. I wouldn't be short energy over the long weekend.
What do you think the probability of the above happening next week?
We're overdue for some BDE "Rally Ass" energy. Work your magic ladies
AMR looking tempting
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Chances are pretty good next week for this to happen. However, media will focus on a report that just got published about finishing the year at 0.5mbpd surplus worldwide. World uses 100 mbpd just for context.
BUT,....tomorrow if Brent is sub $89 and WTI slides sub $85, I'd say Saudi could certainly make the announcement.
Today,...hot off the press,...."Oil is down over 3.2% on Thursday, while a pending G7 deal to cap Russian oil prices being discussed Friday could reverse that trend with Moscow now stating that it will retaliate by refusing to sell oil." ...... Saudi might not have to announce a thing. ..... Something gonna pop with either Russia or Saudi..
Lot in play with Iran JCPOA and Iran oil deal too. Some think crude is trading as if JCPOA and Oil Deal is done. Others think Iran tells Biden to FO, then Saudi drops the hammer announcing a production cut. A double whammy.
BUT,....tomorrow if Brent is sub $89 and WTI slides sub $85, I'd say Saudi could certainly make the announcement.
Today,...hot off the press,...."Oil is down over 3.2% on Thursday, while a pending G7 deal to cap Russian oil prices being discussed Friday could reverse that trend with Moscow now stating that it will retaliate by refusing to sell oil." ...... Saudi might not have to announce a thing. ..... Something gonna pop with either Russia or Saudi..
Lot in play with Iran JCPOA and Iran oil deal too. Some think crude is trading as if JCPOA and Oil Deal is done. Others think Iran tells Biden to FO, then Saudi drops the hammer announcing a production cut. A double whammy.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Less than 12 hours old. Stuff is gettin' f'real..
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62750584
Ravil Maganov: Russian Lukoil chief dies in 'fall from hospital window'
The chairman of Russia's Lukoil oil giant, Ravil Maganov, has died after falling from a hospital window in Moscow, reports say.
The company confirmed his death but said only that Maganov, 67, had "passed away following a severe illness".
Russian media said he was being treated at Moscow's Central Clinical Hospital and died of his injuries.
Maganov is the latest of a number of high-profile business executives to die in mysterious circumstances.
Investigating authorities said they were working at the scene to establish how he died. Tass news agency quoted sources saying he had fallen out of a sixth-floor window early on Thursday morning, adding later that he had taken his own life.
Shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine, the Lukoil board called for the conflict to end as soon as possible, expressing its sympathy to victims of "this tragedy".
Its billionaire president, Vagit Alekperov, resigned in April after the UK imposed sanctions on him in response to the invasion.
Several Russian energy oligarchs have died in unusual circumstances in recent months:
He began working for the private oil company in 1993 and took over as chairman two years ago. Three years ago he was given a lifetime achievement award by President Vladimir Putin.
Maganov had been receiving treatment at a hospital on the western outskirts of Moscow, which is known for having Russia's political and business elite among its patients.
Mikhail Gorbachev died at the Central Clinical Hospital on Tuesday and President Putin visited the site on Thursday morning to lay flowers beside his coffin.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62750584
Ravil Maganov: Russian Lukoil chief dies in 'fall from hospital window'
The chairman of Russia's Lukoil oil giant, Ravil Maganov, has died after falling from a hospital window in Moscow, reports say.
The company confirmed his death but said only that Maganov, 67, had "passed away following a severe illness".
Russian media said he was being treated at Moscow's Central Clinical Hospital and died of his injuries.
Maganov is the latest of a number of high-profile business executives to die in mysterious circumstances.
Investigating authorities said they were working at the scene to establish how he died. Tass news agency quoted sources saying he had fallen out of a sixth-floor window early on Thursday morning, adding later that he had taken his own life.
Shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine, the Lukoil board called for the conflict to end as soon as possible, expressing its sympathy to victims of "this tragedy".
Its billionaire president, Vagit Alekperov, resigned in April after the UK imposed sanctions on him in response to the invasion.
Several Russian energy oligarchs have died in unusual circumstances in recent months:
- The body of millionaire Novatek former manager Sergei Protosenya was found alongside his wife and daughter at a Spanish villa in April
- A former vice-president of Gazprombank, Vladislav Avayev, was found dead with his wife and daughter in their Moscow flat, also in April
- In May, a former Lukoil tycoon Alexander Subbotin died of heart failure, reportedly after seeking alternative treatment from a shaman.
He began working for the private oil company in 1993 and took over as chairman two years ago. Three years ago he was given a lifetime achievement award by President Vladimir Putin.
Maganov had been receiving treatment at a hospital on the western outskirts of Moscow, which is known for having Russia's political and business elite among its patients.
Mikhail Gorbachev died at the Central Clinical Hospital on Tuesday and President Putin visited the site on Thursday morning to lay flowers beside his coffin.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Some more Russian feedback today. I'm telling you, German's are going to freeze this winter. I live in a freakin cold climate,...that's some serious stuff.
"Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak has termed the idea of the G7 countries to limit the price of Russian oil a "complete absurdity" that will destabilize the entire industry."
"According to the minister, Russia will not supply any oil and oil products to those countries that support the establishment of such a limit."
"We simply for such companies or countries that will impose restrictions, will not supply them with oil and oil products, since we will not work in non-market conditions," the Deputy Prime Minister has said."
^^^^Last quote just above, this is why the Secretary of Energy is begging U.S. Big Oil not to export refined products in the months ahead. Product shortages here in the U.S. are real. Inflation in the U.S. would exceed JPowell's wildest dreams and he'll toy with the idea of being Volcker 2.0. That's a scary thought.
"Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak has termed the idea of the G7 countries to limit the price of Russian oil a "complete absurdity" that will destabilize the entire industry."
"According to the minister, Russia will not supply any oil and oil products to those countries that support the establishment of such a limit."
"We simply for such companies or countries that will impose restrictions, will not supply them with oil and oil products, since we will not work in non-market conditions," the Deputy Prime Minister has said."
^^^^Last quote just above, this is why the Secretary of Energy is begging U.S. Big Oil not to export refined products in the months ahead. Product shortages here in the U.S. are real. Inflation in the U.S. would exceed JPowell's wildest dreams and he'll toy with the idea of being Volcker 2.0. That's a scary thought.
Net free on a few SPY 400 calls 9/9 expiration. Finally one worked out, although I'm sure I'll just lose all the profits holding too long.
May take some off and put it into a few more GOLD leaps.
May take some off and put it into a few more GOLD leaps.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Closer to home.
"After nearly two months since the last named storm, Tropical Storm Danielle formed Thursday morning in the mid-Atlantic, and the first hurricane of 2022 could soon follow, according to the National Hurricane Center."
Hurricane, I don't want damage or death, but a little scare in the petro refining sector justs adds a little excitement for everyone.
Here we go!
"After nearly two months since the last named storm, Tropical Storm Danielle formed Thursday morning in the mid-Atlantic, and the first hurricane of 2022 could soon follow, according to the National Hurricane Center."
Hurricane, I don't want damage or death, but a little scare in the petro refining sector justs adds a little excitement for everyone.
Here we go!
topher06 said:
Net free on a few SPY 400 calls 9/9 expiration. Finally one worked out, although I'm sure I'll just lose all the profits holding too long.
May take some off and put it into a few more GOLD leaps.
Set a trailing stop and keep your profits.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
I did sell enough such that the remaining contracts could go to $0 and I would be about break even, but you're right I should still probably set a trailing stop to keep some profits (but they have a week left, so they won't drop to $0 immediately).FJ43 said:topher06 said:
Net free on a few SPY 400 calls 9/9 expiration. Finally one worked out, although I'm sure I'll just lose all the profits holding too long.
May take some off and put it into a few more GOLD leaps.
Set a trailing stop and keep your profits.
topher06 said:I did sell enough such that the remaining contracts could go to $0 and I would be about break even, but you're right I should still probably set a trailing stop to keep some profits (but they have a week left, so they won't drop to $0 immediately).FJ43 said:topher06 said:
Net free on a few SPY 400 calls 9/9 expiration. Finally one worked out, although I'm sure I'll just lose all the profits holding too long.
May take some off and put it into a few more GOLD leaps.
Set a trailing stop and keep your profits.
Just remember net free on weekly expiring options in a week theta will drain them. You can always buy back. Just my 2 cents anyway.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
Buying XOM 100c for next week expiry. Lotto size and will manage them.
Do we finally finish green?
Hell, if you aren't a semi-conductor bag holding dip **** like me, today might shape up to be alright after all.
Good point, especially with the holiday. Maybe should roll out and up some, or just take all the profits. THanks for the 2 cents, it is more valuable than my 2 cents (seriously).FJ43 said:topher06 said:I did sell enough such that the remaining contracts could go to $0 and I would be about break even, but you're right I should still probably set a trailing stop to keep some profits (but they have a week left, so they won't drop to $0 immediately).FJ43 said:topher06 said:
Net free on a few SPY 400 calls 9/9 expiration. Finally one worked out, although I'm sure I'll just lose all the profits holding too long.
May take some off and put it into a few more GOLD leaps.
Set a trailing stop and keep your profits.
Just remember net free on weekly expiring options in a week theta will drain them. You can always buy back. Just my 2 cents anyway.
EDIT: Just sold a couple, need to be better about being happy with taking profit and not getting greedy. Thanks again FJ. I'll hold the other couple for the job report I guess and probably close out before the weekend.
I'll take it.Brian Earl Spilner said:
Do we finally finish green?
Charismatic Megafauna
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AG
I'm calling a $7 day tomorrow. In the up direction.
If we get a decent pop in the AM, I'll sell my AMD/AMZN calls for a nice profit and put into XOM calls.
this would've been one helluva entry. Too bad I got busy and didn't enter SPY or QQQ calls!FJ43 said:BREwmaster said:
you are thinking try a long here soon as a lotto, am i right?
intraday we are still in a downtrend, still below a trend line I have drawn. Volume declining though and looks like higher lows.
Missed the entry long but if I was watching I'd of bought lottos at my trendline touch. Still a possibility. I think we may get a bounce but it's still bearish trend.
this is a great reminder... especially as all of fintwit flips bull after today.
Crossed days are the hardest to figure out. We closed above yesterdays close but have a new low and lower high. Most will be looking for continuation upward tomorrow.
— Freedom Costs More Than Being Concerned... (@oldarmy1) September 1, 2022
I'll go the opposite direction, if we have a strong jobs report (I hate a good news is bad news market) tomorrow, combined with a long weekend, I think that the S&P could drop 100. We will see…Charismatic Megafauna said:
I'm calling a $7 day tomorrow. In the up direction.
I bet you're a blast at parties.Ag CPA said:I'll go the opposite direction, if we have a strong jobs report (I hate a good news is bad news market) tomorrow, combined with a long weekend, I think that the S&P could drop 100. We will see…Charismatic Megafauna said:
I'm calling a $7 day tomorrow. In the up direction.
Inched into neutral on the Fear/Greed index.
ProgN said:I bet you're a blast at parties.Ag CPA said:I'll go the opposite direction, if we have a strong jobs report (I hate a good news is bad news market) tomorrow, combined with a long weekend, I think that the S&P could drop 100. We will see…Charismatic Megafauna said:
I'm calling a $7 day tomorrow. In the up direction.
OKTA had me hopping early. I started buying premarket and into the open. I got my first puts but was down a little more than $18k the first 10 minutes. It lost long term support and I usually exit the trade but I figured it would really drop hard so I bought 200% of my position in puts. The largest were Friday expiring $68's. I sent a message out in the $59's and it bottomed in the $58's. I was still down $4100 but the stock moved to over $63 and I was in the green $800. I got my 50% covered calls and 100% puts in place there, so safe now.
If I had not bought shares and just traded the long term support break I would have been up $22k. Shorts pushed relentlessly, so you can count on a rubber band bounce generally within 10 days. Check to see if it drifts lower and that's when you can enter calls $5 out of the money and 45 days out for high odds bounce.
If I had not bought shares and just traded the long term support break I would have been up $22k. Shorts pushed relentlessly, so you can count on a rubber band bounce generally within 10 days. Check to see if it drifts lower and that's when you can enter calls $5 out of the money and 45 days out for high odds bounce.
Ag CPA said:I'll go the opposite direction, if we have a strong jobs report (I hate a good news is bad news market) tomorrow, combined with a long weekend, I think that the S&P could drop 100. We will see…Charismatic Megafauna said:
I'm calling a $7 day tomorrow. In the up direction.
There's a very strong seasonal pattern of Aug non-farm payrolls missing estimates… Aug ‘21 came in @ +235K compared to +750K expected. It's missed before revisions in 17 of 21 yrs to the downside. Over the past 7 yrs, the miss has been ~ 100K on avg. A chart👇: h/t @ForexLive
— Cem Karsan 🥐 (@jam_croissant) September 1, 2022
 pic.twitter.com/EK45EGGVHJ
I've given up predicting what the market will determine to be good or bad. But here's some interesting numbers.
Better be a realist versus an optimistProgN said:I bet you're a blast at parties.Ag CPA said:I'll go the opposite direction, if we have a strong jobs report (I hate a good news is bad news market) tomorrow, combined with a long weekend, I think that the S&P could drop 100. We will see…Charismatic Megafauna said:
I'm calling a $7 day tomorrow. In the up direction.
Did y'all win today?
Rally hat till OpEx and VIXperation?
Vol suppression into 9/14 yes. pic.twitter.com/RRzkpQWbO2
— Cem Karsan 🥐 (@jam_croissant) September 1, 2022
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