Username checks out

% chance HKD closes below 700? We have ~40 minutes

Ranger222 said:

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% chance HKD closes below 700? We have ~40 minutes

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Still rocking the $150 spread with $160 higher ask than last sale! lol


Edit:
Halted again

i'm taking some AMD 115C weeklies as an earnings lotto

sts7049 said:

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i'm taking some AMD 115C weeklies as an earnings lotto

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Best of luck, but I think AMD's ER may be priced in a good bit already just about given the other semis that have already reported. 15% move in three days is a bit much and the the premium will evaporate if they don't beat bigly

HKD is going to destroy anyone left without a chair when the music stops.

I watch stocks all day an I won't gamble with it but if you can't take your iPad to trade with you while you take a ****, then I'd recommend not messing with it.

I see the real carnage this time being in the car industry… real estate won't be as bad as 2008 I don't think.

i'm not going for 200% or anything. if i only get 10% i'm good with that.

ABNB weeklies?

If you've got the time they're fun to **** with!

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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Should I do it?

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250 credit and no job. I love you man.

irish pete ag06 said:

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I see the real carnage this time being in the car industry… real estate won't be as bad as 2008 I don't think.

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Real estate could be much worse than 08, just getting there a different way. Current home sale prices are already down 30% in Austin, a faster drop than any point in the 08 crash.

What could cause the real estate bubble to pop this time is one of the corporation's who overbought single family homes in the pandemic getting into financial trouble and liquidating their real estate portfolio. 30% of homes some in Texas last year were bough by corporations.

Some people buying homes last year were getting loans for their down payment when the bank wouldn't value the home at what it was selling for. With home values pulling back, how many people will walk away from those homes having very little of their money in it?

And then there's China with their real estate bubble popping.

I think the worst is yet to come. My SPX target this year is 3500 and I think it goes lower in 2023 unless the fed steps in to prop it up.

Triple_Bagger said:

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irish pete ag06 said:

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I see the real carnage this time being in the car industry… real estate won't be as bad as 2008 I don't think.

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Real estate could be much worse than 08, just getting there a different way. Current home sale prices are already down 30% in Austin, a faster drop than any point in the 08 crash.

What could cause the real estate bubble to pop this time is one of the corporation's who overbought single family homes in the pandemic getting into financial trouble and liquidating their real estate portfolio. 30% of homes some in Texas last year were bough by corporations.

Some people buying homes last year were getting loans for their down payment when the bank wouldn't value the home at what it was selling for. With home values pulling back, how many people will walk away from those homes having very little of their money in it?

And then there's China with their real estate bubble popping.

I think the worst is yet to come. My SPX target this year is 3500 and I think it goes lower in 2023 unless the fed steps in to prop it up.

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where are you seeing this?

Nevermind - found some links.

Irish 2.0 said:

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Think you mean inventories are up 30% in Austin. Price drops of 30% is unheard of. Especially in Austin which is still one of, if not the, fastest growing metros in the country.

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Yep. And I can also find no evidence to support the 30% are corporations bit. I don't know how many people are going to walk away, but I do think people will become much more locked into their current geography because moving means stomaching the higher interest rates.

Real estate will cool off and maybe even pull back a bit, but I concur on the storm coming for the auto industry. The good thing about autos is that they're mobile assets, so they're naturally more liquid than fixed real estate assets. Should allow some pent up demand to be released as well as allow for a normalization of new/used prices to more reasonable levels. Overall it's going to be a tough few years for the middle class, though.

Buck Compton said:

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Irish 2.0 said:

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Think you mean inventories are up 30% in Austin. Price drops of 30% is unheard of. Especially in Austin which is still one of, if not the, fastest growing metros in the country.

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Yep. And I can also find no evidence to support the 30% are corporations bit. I don't know how many people are going to walk away, but I do think people will become much more locked into their current geography because moving means stomaching the higher interest rates.

Real estate will cool off and maybe even pull back a bit, but I concur on the storm coming for the auto industry. The good thing about autos is that they're mobile assets, so they're naturally more liquid than fixed real estate assets. Should allow some pent up demand to be released as well as allow for a normalization of new/used prices to more reasonable levels. Overall it's going to be a tough few years for the middle class, though.

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According to a National Association of Realtors report (via WFAA), corporations, companies or limited liability companies (LLC) bought 28% of homes sold in Texas last year. This is the highest rate in the US and more than double the national average. In North Texas, the number is even higher

Nm

Answered below

Irish 2.0 said:

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Think you mean inventories are up 30% in Austin. Price drops of 30% is unheard of. Especially in Austin which is still one of, if not the, fastest growing metros in the country.

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Yeah, I misread this one. Here's the actual stat:

AUSTIN, Texas Austin ranks second in a list of cities experiencing the highest rates of home price slashing, according to new data from Realtor.com.

The Austin housing market has seen 32.4% of listings undergo price reductions. The current median home list price sits at $620,000.

Triple_Bagger said:

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Buck Compton said:

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Irish 2.0 said:

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Think you mean inventories are up 30% in Austin. Price drops of 30% is unheard of. Especially in Austin which is still one of, if not the, fastest growing metros in the country.

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Yep. And I can also find no evidence to support the 30% are corporations bit. I don't know how many people are going to walk away, but I do think people will become much more locked into their current geography because moving means stomaching the higher interest rates.

Real estate will cool off and maybe even pull back a bit, but I concur on the storm coming for the auto industry. The good thing about autos is that they're mobile assets, so they're naturally more liquid than fixed real estate assets. Should allow some pent up demand to be released as well as allow for a normalization of new/used prices to more reasonable levels. Overall it's going to be a tough few years for the middle class, though.

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According to a National Association of Realtors report (via WFAA), corporations, companies or limited liability companies (LLC) bought 28% of homes sold in Texas last year. This is the highest rate in the US and more than double the national average. In North Texas, the number is even higher

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I'd like to see that breakdown of LLC vs. actual corporation. Those are VERY different things and don't reflect the assumptions in your original post.

A lot of LLC buying is just individuals keeping their first house and renting it out or investing in a handful of properties. Those aren't all getting dumped back on the market. With population growth in the area and low fixed interest rates on these loans, they'll be able to keep those filled with renters for a long time if they didn't get WAAAAAY out over their skis.

I think we're positioning for September with a round of stimulus plus QE that we don't find out about until later.

Bob Knights Liver said:

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I think we're positioning for September with a round of stimulus plus QE that we don't find out about until later.

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What stimulus are you expecting in the next 60 days?

"Vote for me and you'll get $xxx.xx a month but we will give you more details after the election"

Heat crisis, real estate relief, monkey pox? No idea, but if there isn't a crisis that polls big enough I think they will do something like "forgive" student loans by sending checks or send stimulus to states with approved gun laws.

Irish 2.0 said:

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Buck Compton said:

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Bob Knights Liver said:

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I think we're positioning for September with a round of stimulus plus QE that we don't find out about until later.

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What stimulus are you expecting in the next 60 days?

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Attempts to unilaterally forgive a fixed amount of student loans is my bet.

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Good point. I can see this, but really can't see how they could get any of the other stuff through. There may be campaign promises, but they won't hit until 2023

Bob Knights Liver said:

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Heat crisis, real estate relief, monkey pox? No idea, but if there isn't a crisis that polls big enough I think they will do something like "forgive" student loans by sending checks or send stimulus to states with approved gun laws.

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Student loans is the only thing they would be able to act on. The other stuff is ridiculous.