MOC 2B to the buy side
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Last: 1 hr ago by 59 South
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Triple_Bagger said:
SAVA Degenerates; there's some unusual volume on this weeks C20. They're supposed to announce Q2 earnings this week so they might give an update on the clinical trials. Might just be shorts hedging, but it's a cheap lotto ($30).
I've mentioned before that I opened a bunch of GTC SAVA 1/2024 call credit spreads at various stokes, that would Mac out at 100:1 payout. The five $120/$150 spreads executed this morning. There's something going on with SAVA. It may simply be earnings anticipation, but something is up.
I think we see more downside this week. Let's see.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Didn't get banned. I offended some snow flakes in another B&I thread with my language choices.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Am I wrong in thinking that the prediction with the highest probability of success would be regression back towards the 10DMA and then decision from there?$30,000 Millionaire said:
I think we see more downside this week. Let's see.
No, not unrealistic.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
I liked you before, but you just called out snowflakes. I love you man!$30,000 Millionaire said:
Didn't get banned. I offended some snow flakes in another B&I thread with my language choices.
What thread? Did it get taken down?
You guys are great - it's the thread about two jobs. I asked the OP if he had Down's syndrome 
.
. You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
$LABU may be setting up for another run here. $XBI if you're more risk averse.
I think this is a good R/R spot. You'd want to cut in the low 7s, but I think it could challenge the 9s again. It's in a daily squeeze.
I think this is a good R/R spot. You'd want to cut in the low 7s, but I think it could challenge the 9s again. It's in a daily squeeze.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
I think XLU could be an easy short to the mean.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Boring this week
$30,000 Millionaire said:
Didn't get banned. I offended some snow flakes in another B&I thread with my language choices.
Too busy to trade today. We got Novosad, btw, but I won't rub it in! You guys have owned us head to head for recruits for years! Hoping having Aranda is like catching lightning in a bottle. He's not a typical football personality and seems to fit our school well. After year 1, I was less than thrilled but COVID didn't help. Last year was obviously great!
So today was an inside day, I guess? Maybe we won't reach that 4220 Model T after all. That would've been too obvious…
So today was an inside day, I guess? Maybe we won't reach that 4220 Model T after all. That would've been too obvious…
Lol at the first question on my practice test tonight...
The answer is E. Whatever administration is in power gets to decide the rules.
Anyone get lucky enough to snag some HKD before it exploded?! It's ripped from 20 to 820 in like 2 weeks. Wowzers. And I can't find much about the company itself. Almost puts GME to shame.
Treasury Shorts Smoked... Pelosi to Land in Taiwan at 10.20 AM Est..Eq GS Vs JPM
The world is focused on tracking the Air Force Jet bringing Speaker Pelosi to Taiwan, which is expected to land at 10.20 Am EST... Equity markets in China were down 2% this am... We doubt China will do more than Sabre Rattling, but the equity markets have some fear built in as S+P are lower, but not significantly...US S+P futures bottomed just moments ago at 6.32 am, at 4083... Now up about 15 points from that low... Meanwhile we continue to see large blocks of 5 year futures buying... The 2/5 inversion is the most since 2000... Similarly, the 2/10 inversion record is minus 51, from that same time frame... That inversion is near its recent record of -32... We think legacy treasury shorts are still significant and will drive the curve flatter and more inverted.
Fed... Zoltan Poznar is out with a piece saying that the Fed has to get to 5-6% Fed Funds to conquer inflation... We agree to a point, but our level is closer to north of 4%... And we are not sure we will get there, but that would mean the Fed has to live with 4% inflation rather than 2% inflation.. Meanwhile WIRP still is only building in a little over 50 for September and 25 for November... Maybe December as well.. That would put the Fed at 3% to 3.25%... Can't fine tune it for now, too many data points to anticipate... As for the Fed... We have speakers today, but we do not expect much... Rates are being determined by flows and positions... And as we said correctly last week, the next moves will be done to those that have the most to lose... The short positions in treasuries and more than likely the short volatility players in equities
Rates...10 year is at our resistance of 2.55... It got as low at 2.51 overnight on the Pelosi fear trade... We see 10 years breaking 2.50 and possibly going to 2.375, depending on the employment trade on Friday... Not a great set up for this weeks auctions... As for long bonds , they have taken out the 2.94 resistance and now are now looking at 2.82, the level it reversed from earlier this year when it reached 3.40... This is now a rates war... 5/10/30 are all on a path to lower yields which will smoke out legacy shorts...5 years should break 2.57 on the way to 2.38... As the 2/5 inversion will set records... The 3 month/10 year is only 12 basis positive for now... Stagflation is here...
Equities... It is Goldman versus JPM in the morning press... Cecilia Mariotti sent us and others a piece overnight where GS thinks the equity markets have gotten ahead of themselves and thinks the equity markets are vulnerable to hawkish surprises... Kolanovic of JPM stands firm in his belief that stocks will continue to head higher... We hate to be bears, but we think equities will start to reverse towards the end of this month and it will be a tough September... Earlier today Javier Blas sent out a chart showing the 1 year ahead baseload electricity prices in Germany traded at EUR 400/MWH... While we do not know the average that seems very high, panicky high... That will not be good for Europe.
Credit... Aaa Apple had massive demand for their 5.5 billion dollar deal yesterday... Order book was in excess of 23 billion... We had not realized that Moody's had upgraded Apple to AAA back in December... Missed that... The rest of the corporate space came with a total of 8 issuers and 15.35 billion of IG debt... And Barclays came with another 2 billion of Hybrid debt that was not part of the IG trade... All went smoothly...but spreads are starting to widen again... We are not sure how or when the window will close... But we are in choppy times...
So where do we go next?... Looks like lower rates and a flatter or more inverted curve... Equities will remain choppy on the Pelosi trade... And the employment number at the end of the week has the potential for more fireworks... We have jolts data at 10 am... A key number for Jay Powell....We will be watching the most tracked aircraft in the world... Almost 300,000 users are following the move of "Spar19" a US Air Force Plane Boeing C-40C, according to FlightRadar24... But at the end the flows will dominate the Pelosi trade... Have a good day
The world is focused on tracking the Air Force Jet bringing Speaker Pelosi to Taiwan, which is expected to land at 10.20 Am EST... Equity markets in China were down 2% this am... We doubt China will do more than Sabre Rattling, but the equity markets have some fear built in as S+P are lower, but not significantly...US S+P futures bottomed just moments ago at 6.32 am, at 4083... Now up about 15 points from that low... Meanwhile we continue to see large blocks of 5 year futures buying... The 2/5 inversion is the most since 2000... Similarly, the 2/10 inversion record is minus 51, from that same time frame... That inversion is near its recent record of -32... We think legacy treasury shorts are still significant and will drive the curve flatter and more inverted.
Fed... Zoltan Poznar is out with a piece saying that the Fed has to get to 5-6% Fed Funds to conquer inflation... We agree to a point, but our level is closer to north of 4%... And we are not sure we will get there, but that would mean the Fed has to live with 4% inflation rather than 2% inflation.. Meanwhile WIRP still is only building in a little over 50 for September and 25 for November... Maybe December as well.. That would put the Fed at 3% to 3.25%... Can't fine tune it for now, too many data points to anticipate... As for the Fed... We have speakers today, but we do not expect much... Rates are being determined by flows and positions... And as we said correctly last week, the next moves will be done to those that have the most to lose... The short positions in treasuries and more than likely the short volatility players in equities
Rates...10 year is at our resistance of 2.55... It got as low at 2.51 overnight on the Pelosi fear trade... We see 10 years breaking 2.50 and possibly going to 2.375, depending on the employment trade on Friday... Not a great set up for this weeks auctions... As for long bonds , they have taken out the 2.94 resistance and now are now looking at 2.82, the level it reversed from earlier this year when it reached 3.40... This is now a rates war... 5/10/30 are all on a path to lower yields which will smoke out legacy shorts...5 years should break 2.57 on the way to 2.38... As the 2/5 inversion will set records... The 3 month/10 year is only 12 basis positive for now... Stagflation is here...
Equities... It is Goldman versus JPM in the morning press... Cecilia Mariotti sent us and others a piece overnight where GS thinks the equity markets have gotten ahead of themselves and thinks the equity markets are vulnerable to hawkish surprises... Kolanovic of JPM stands firm in his belief that stocks will continue to head higher... We hate to be bears, but we think equities will start to reverse towards the end of this month and it will be a tough September... Earlier today Javier Blas sent out a chart showing the 1 year ahead baseload electricity prices in Germany traded at EUR 400/MWH... While we do not know the average that seems very high, panicky high... That will not be good for Europe.
Credit... Aaa Apple had massive demand for their 5.5 billion dollar deal yesterday... Order book was in excess of 23 billion... We had not realized that Moody's had upgraded Apple to AAA back in December... Missed that... The rest of the corporate space came with a total of 8 issuers and 15.35 billion of IG debt... And Barclays came with another 2 billion of Hybrid debt that was not part of the IG trade... All went smoothly...but spreads are starting to widen again... We are not sure how or when the window will close... But we are in choppy times...
So where do we go next?... Looks like lower rates and a flatter or more inverted curve... Equities will remain choppy on the Pelosi trade... And the employment number at the end of the week has the potential for more fireworks... We have jolts data at 10 am... A key number for Jay Powell....We will be watching the most tracked aircraft in the world... Almost 300,000 users are following the move of "Spar19" a US Air Force Plane Boeing C-40C, according to FlightRadar24... But at the end the flows will dominate the Pelosi trade... Have a good day
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austinAG90 said:
Treasury Shorts Smoked... Pelosi to Land in Taiwan at 10.20 AM Est..Eq GS Vs JPM
The world is focused on tracking the Air Force Jet bringing Speaker Pelosi to Taiwan, which is expected to land at 10.20 Am EST... Equity markets in China were down 2% this am... We doubt China will do more than Sabre Rattling, but the equity markets have some fear built in as S+P are lower, but not significantly...US S+P futures bottomed just moments ago at 6.32 am, at 4083... Now up about 15 points from that low... Meanwhile we continue to see large blocks of 5 year futures buying... The 2/5 inversion is the most since 2000... Similarly, the 2/10 inversion record is minus 51, from that same time frame... That inversion is near its recent record of -32... We think legacy treasury shorts are still significant and will drive the curve flatter and more inverted.
Fed... Zoltan Poznar is out with a piece saying that the Fed has to get to 5-6% Fed Funds to conquer inflation... We agree to a point, but our level is closer to north of 4%... And we are not sure we will get there, but that would mean the Fed has to live with 4% inflation rather than 2% inflation.. Meanwhile WIRP still is only building in a little over 50 for September and 25 for November... Maybe December as well.. That would put the Fed at 3% to 3.25%... Can't fine tune it for now, too many data points to anticipate... As for the Fed... We have speakers today, but we do not expect much... Rates are being determined by flows and positions... And as we said correctly last week, the next moves will be done to those that have the most to lose... The short positions in treasuries and more than likely the short volatility players in equities
Rates...10 year is at our resistance of 2.55... It got as low at 2.51 overnight on the Pelosi fear trade... We see 10 years breaking 2.50 and possibly going to 2.375, depending on the employment trade on Friday... Not a great set up for this weeks auctions... As for long bonds , they have taken out the 2.94 resistance and now are now looking at 2.82, the level it reversed from earlier this year when it reached 3.40... This is now a rates war... 5/10/30 are all on a path to lower yields which will smoke out legacy shorts...5 years should break 2.57 on the way to 2.38... As the 2/5 inversion will set records... The 3 month/10 year is only 12 basis positive for now... Stagflation is here...
Equities... It is Goldman versus JPM in the morning press... Cecilia Mariotti sent us and others a piece overnight where GS thinks the equity markets have gotten ahead of themselves and thinks the equity markets are vulnerable to hawkish surprises... Kolanovic of JPM stands firm in his belief that stocks will continue to head higher... We hate to be bears, but we think equities will start to reverse towards the end of this month and it will be a tough September... Earlier today Javier Blas sent out a chart showing the 1 year ahead baseload electricity prices in Germany traded at EUR 400/MWH... While we do not know the average that seems very high, panicky high... That will not be good for Europe.
Credit... Aaa Apple had massive demand for their 5.5 billion dollar deal yesterday... Order book was in excess of 23 billion... We had not realized that Moody's had upgraded Apple to AAA back in December... Missed that... The rest of the corporate space came with a total of 8 issuers and 15.35 billion of IG debt... And Barclays came with another 2 billion of Hybrid debt that was not part of the IG trade... All went smoothly...but spreads are starting to widen again... We are not sure how or when the window will close... But we are in choppy times...
So where do we go next?... Looks like lower rates and a flatter or more inverted curve... Equities will remain choppy on the Pelosi trade... And the employment number at the end of the week has the potential for more fireworks... We have jolts data at 10 am... A key number for Jay Powell....We will be watching the most tracked aircraft in the world... Almost 300,000 users are following the move of "Spar19" a US Air Force Plane Boeing C-40C, according to FlightRadar24... But at the end the flows will dominate the Pelosi trade... Have a good day
Markets will move sideways for a while.
We may see some fireworks over Taiwan but I agree with you on the sideways movement. I'm seeing a trading range on SPY of 408-414
I'm seeing a 10DMA test if we give up the 5DMA on the SPY. Barely any supply to stop it from testing the 10DMA if it gives up the 5Spoony Love said:
We may see some fireworks over Taiwan but I agree with you on the sideways movement. I'm seeing a trading range on SPY of 408-414
Market is going to rip today.
What gives you that thought?Ragoo said:
Market is going to rip today.
mostly being contrarianIrish 2.0 said:What gives you that thought?Ragoo said:
Market is going to rip today.
I imagine there will be a lot of high praise and good news from pelosi going to Taiwan.
Has the bit....I mean witch landed in Taiwan yet?Ragoo said:mostly being contrarianIrish 2.0 said:What gives you that thought?Ragoo said:
Market is going to rip today.
I imagine there will be a lot of high praise and good news from pelosi going to Taiwan.
Charismatic Megafauna
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Charismatic Megafauna said:
Think I'm gonna grab some uvxy calls a week or so out
Took the easy 30% on these
Watch 407.7 area for a bounce on the SPY. Not sure how much of a bounce it will give, but I'd keep the stop relatively tight just because of how much room down there is to the 10DMA
Flightradar crashed because so many people are tracking that plane
I'll take $1.30 on the SPY bounce and call it a day for now. I have my alerts set so if it gives up 407.6, I'll look to short a little with a target at 401.5 areaIrish 2.0 said:
Watch 407.7 area for a bounce on the SPY. Not sure how much of a bounce it will give, but I'd keep the stop relatively tight just because of how much room down there is to the 10DMA
I've been having some fun with DBI on the technical side. Start going long around $12.50 and shorting it around $15. Shows a pretty clear horizontal pattern that's been holding over the past year.
It always works until it doesn't.
It always works until it doesn't.
LCID (lucid) has also been a stock that will drop to $17.80s at market open and usually finds $18.50s the next day or so. It's a stock that I think will eventually bounce to $21. They do have earnings it looks like tomorrow so that will be interesting how it plays out.
Most of those weekly C20s were day trades yesterday. Over 3,000 in volume and only 800 OI today. I sold mine for $52 this morning (+73%). Still holding shares and 1/2024 C120/150 spreads.Bob Knights Liver said:Triple_Bagger said:
SAVA Degenerates; there's some unusual volume on this weeks C20. They're supposed to announce Q2 earnings this week so they might give an update on the clinical trials. Might just be shorts hedging, but it's a cheap lotto ($30).
I've mentioned before that I opened a bunch of GTC SAVA 1/2024 call credit spreads at various stokes, that would Mac out at 100:1 payout. The five $120/$150 spreads executed this morning. There's something going on with SAVA. It may simply be earnings anticipation, but something is up.
Stopped...Irish 2.0 said:I'll take $1.30 on the SPY bounce and call it a day for now. I have my alerts set so if it gives up 407.6, I'll look to short a little with a target at 401.5 areaIrish 2.0 said:
Watch 407.7 area for a bounce on the SPY. Not sure how much of a bounce it will give, but I'd keep the stop relatively tight just because of how much room down there is to the 10DMA
AMD earnings after the bell. Haven't missed on EPS since Q3 2019 report based on what I'm seeing. Do we expect them to continue? Or will all the chip shortage issues finally come to a head? It has been recovering well, with the rest of the tech sector, over the last couple of weeks.
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