Atlanta Fed ends up at -1.2%. So that 2nd negative GDP quarter looks like it is in the books tomorrow.

Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

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Senate passes Chip Bill and Pelosi got a pay day..

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Didn't she sell the nvda at a loss?

YNWA_AG said:

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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

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Senate passes Chip Bill and Pelosi got a pay day..

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Didn't she sell the nvda at a loss?

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I believe her hubby had bought a ton of calls with a very low strike and he exercised those

YNWA_AG said:

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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

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Senate passes Chip Bill and Pelosi got a pay day..

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Didn't she sell the nvda at a loss?

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I stand corrected.

MarketWatch, one of the most respected names in financial reporting (cough) has reported the Pelosi's lost money on NVDA trade.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nancy-pelosis-husband-sells-4-million-worth-of-nvidia-stock-at-a-major-loss-11658943396?mod=mw_latestnews

Serves me right for jumping the gun. Reporting bad info. Not good.

Brian Earl Spilner said:

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Hit my UPRO stop loss at $40 on my brokerage.

Set a buy for $39.

Kinda banking on a flash dip with the Fed and a rally into the finish. Seems to be the pattern this year.

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quick violent pullback, then short squeeze to 4k, would be my vote!

cptthunder said:

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I might be way over my skis on this but with the extreme heat, lack of rain, high cost of fertilizer, high diesel cost is there a projected shortage in hay for the coming winter?
If there is would it be significant enough to cause a decrease in beef production resulting in increased beef prices? I have zero back ground in this area but figured this would be a place to throw out the idea. Anyone know a etf such as $CORN or $WEAT for cattle?
All I have found at this point is $COW

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Hey Farmer! Since your around today any thoughts on this? You seems to always have a finger on the pulse of this area

Someone did respond saying there are a number of cows being sold right now because of projected lack of hay/grass. Could this end up adding more product in the short term pushing prices down and offer a chance to buy in at a low price?

irish pete ag06 said:

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irish pete ag06 said:

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irish pete ag06 said:

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Played tiny... snagged a 303P on QQQ early in the day. Sold half at 100% rode the other down to about a 400% victory. Was probably the most stress free trading day I've just about ever had.

Just base hits you moron, it's that simple.

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At Jamaica Beach RV Resort. Made 2 scalps. One laying down relaxing and one on the crapper. In and out. Best way for me.

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Still at the red neck haven of Jamaica Beaxh RV Resort.

Played a QQQ call early and cut it for loss. Flipped to puts after a retest of former support and made it back plus some.
I'm proud today of not holding that first play too long and then averaging down, etc. I made a semi-decisive cut and moved on.


3 green in a row.

+0.84% on the day.

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4 in a row, scalped a slight pullback inside of 1 5 minute candles early in AM. 4 green in a row.

I've realized one of my problems is I also tend to start tracking how many days green in a row I am. After a certain amount of days, I stop making good trading decisions (letting winners run, tight stops, etc), and just start trading to preserve a green day at whatever costs.

I'd like to get a point where I don't even track my P&L, and just focus on making good trades. It's hard though, when it's really the best way to gauge our success.

Bob Knights Liver said:

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I'm positioned more bull, but for some reason I wanna see blood. One more plunge to a lower bottom before we begin our recovery. There's probably something wrong with me

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Same.. pounded my fist for months about hitting SPY $350 and we never quite got there.

TecRecAg said:

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Bob Knights Liver said:

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I'm positioned more bull, but for some reason I wanna see blood. One more plunge to a lower bottom before we begin our recovery. There's probably something wrong with me

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Same.. pounded my fist for months about hitting SPY $350 and we never quite got there.

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I think we see a push to somewhere between 4050-4100, before beginning one more leg down to the top of the pre-Covid highs.

IF we can get to 4100 in the next couple of weeks. I'm going to look at taking Sept 30 SPY 350P for under 3.00. Looking for a target of 3200-3400.

cptthunder said:

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cptthunder said:

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I might be way over my skis on this but with the extreme heat, lack of rain, high cost of fertilizer, high diesel cost is there a projected shortage in hay for the coming winter?
If there is would it be significant enough to cause a decrease in beef production resulting in increased beef prices? I have zero back ground in this area but figured this would be a place to throw out the idea. Anyone know a etf such as $CORN or $WEAT for cattle?
All I have found at this point is $COW

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Hey Farmer! Since your around today any thoughts on this? You seems to always have a finger on the pulse of this area

Someone did respond saying there are a number of cows being sold right now because of projected lack of hay/grass. Could this end up adding more product in the short term pushing prices down and offer a chance to buy in at a low price?

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Not familiar with COW, but your logic in that second paragraph is correct.

The push to get animals to market is on. Should be that way for a couple to 3 or 4 months. The COW should decrease in price. ....... Should be a wave of animals going to processing. Cheaper red meat for a while. Once that excess gets cleaned up, red meat goes back up in price and cattle price does too. ***Footnote: It's been sorta historic, commodities are cheap in a recession. Keep that in the back of your mind. Yet, I don't see that rule of thumb holding for oil/petroleum.

You should get a 2 for 1 - #1 a chance to watch cattle price go down and buy COW and #2 a chance to buy cheaper red meat and the price rides back up later.

Ramble. Have an acquaintance that tried to start a Hay Futures Market back in the 90's. I thought his idea was solid, but it didn't take off. Hay (fiber is my general catch all) is hard to classify for getting to a "standard" and a standard is needed if you're going to have a Futures Market. Unless you have multiple classes of hay/fiber and a Futures contract associated with each would be about the only way to succeed. I digress. Hay shortage this year, highly likely.

My Kansas buddy, told me that on Sunday they ran out of water. Well wont pump it up, level is below. Cows heading to market next week if they can't figure something out. More cows that go to market, hay loosens up in supply for less demand available to eat it.

Hope this helps.

SPX, QQQ, and TSLA all seem to be trading between the bear supply and bull demand zones. It's really interesting. Large, violent moves but momentum dries up. I think that means that both bulls and bears are engaged right now or that no one knows which way we're going?

Look out below. Check: or not.

Wow, those last 2 1min candles on spy. ~3pt jump

mc_shipman said:

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Still accurate if you were holding some puts. Like me.

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Thankfully I exited my puts at a small loss on the last drop. I was about to have FOMO if it went through the floor.

The market confuses me on days like this and I should just stay on the sidelines. We already expected 75 bps. All meaningful economic indicators (spending, housing, etc.) are negative... But then SPY jumps 4 points in 5 minutes when we announce that 75 bps.

The market sure does love to rip whenever Powell starts speaking on these Fed rate days lately.

Logged back in to see if you made an edit. hahaha

Saltyag15 said:

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Somebody touched somebody's special area...look at that puppy run!

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Forget touch....let'em grab hold!

Grabbed 100 SQQQ. Gotta come back down tomorrow right?

Brian Earl Spilner said:

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Grabbed 100 SQQQ. Gotta come back down tomorrow right?

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I'm not making a prediction but I remember that happened after Powell spoke a couple months ago and we had serious rippage after. Then the next few days we're relentless selling. Granted that was a different time.

We were also below the daily 50 SMA then.

GreasenUSA said:

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I've realized one of my problems is I also tend to start tracking how many days green in a row I am. After a certain amount of days, I stop making good trading decisions (letting winners run, tight stops, etc), and just start trading to preserve a green day at whatever costs.

I'd like to get a point where I don't even track my P&L, and just focus on making good trades. It's hard though, when it's really the best way to gauge our success.

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You could try changing your time frames and compare that way. If you get 5 green days in a row versus following your plan and go 4/5, compare each week and see if you actually do better stringing them like that. Or zoom out to months. Or compare your results to the market aka if you're green for five days but so was the market then it's less impressive than a small loss on a day where everyone else took a bath.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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Yes, I believe in it.

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Apparently we're not the only ones!

GreasenUSA said:

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I've realized one of my problems is I also tend to start tracking how many days green in a row I am. After a certain amount of days, I stop making good trading decisions (letting winners run, tight stops, etc), and just start trading to preserve a green day at whatever costs.

I'd like to get a point where I don't even track my P&L, and just focus on making good trades. It's hard though, when it's really the best way to gauge our success.

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That's a good point. My goal isn't some ungodly Joe Dinaggio hit streak… it's too fill up a month with mostly green days but my biggest goal is to make the red days smaller. It's my next step I need to take. I've been green on 17 of last 20 days but the my p&L over that time is slightly red.

Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

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XOM ER is Friday. I think they announce the Div a couple days in advance. I am looking for the announcement today. Historically, XOM increases the Div at Q3. I'm thinking they might surprise shareholders today or tomorrow with a Div increase. Regardless, monster quarter awaits.

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Well I'm in on some Aug 5th - $92 strikes.

Red Pear DFW Luke said:

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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

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XOM ER is Friday. I think they announce the Div a couple days in advance. I am looking for the announcement today. Historically, XOM increases the Div at Q3. I'm thinking they might surprise shareholders today or tomorrow with a Div increase. Regardless, monster quarter awaits.

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Well I'm in on some Aug 5th - $92 strikes.

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Check that Aug 19 - $100 Calls. Open interest remains at 45,000. Big bet. 20,000 bought on 4/27. I think the share price is going past $100 by Aug 19th.

I'm always amazed on what moves the market during the Powell press conferences; we are probably getting some short-squeezes at this point but I have not heard anything so far that was not already known yet the market keeps pushing higher. Wonder how things will go tomorrow after everyone goes home and sleeps on it.

Last post of the day.

XOM, some think cup & handle (finishing) [McInnis artwork request]

It's above 8, 21, & 50(today)

RSI = 57

Giddy-Up!

Here's to bad ju-ju staying away from Market if GDP is negative tomorrow.

Have a great rest of your day!