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Bonfire1996
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3:14p, 7/26/22
AG
GOOGL missed nominally when the miss was expected to be big. The rev miss was much smaller.

What's happening is GOOGL is proving itself to be the #1 cash generator on the planet.
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LMCane
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In reply to texagbeliever • 3:15p, 7/26/22
texagbeliever said:
GOOG's earnings are after close today. For me, based on the general negative consensus for things not TSLA, I'd be worried some bad news could result in a gap down.
missing on top and bottom lines and still moves up in price 3% after hours...
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LMCane
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In reply to Bonfire1996 • 3:16p, 7/26/22
Bonfire1996 said:
GOOGL missed nominally when the miss was expected to be big. The rev miss was much smaller.

What's happening is GOOGL is proving itself to be the #1 cash generator on the planet.
thankfully I have been adding Alphabet in the last several months. now if Amazon can duplicate same results next quarter
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SF2004
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3:18p, 7/26/22
AG
I buy two lotto puts on $google and it rocket ships to the moon on a miss.

LOL!
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topher06
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3:22p, 7/26/22
Market must be pricing in huge misses, so small misses are a big positive. I bought some AMZN right before close today and then sold calls against it at $120 expiring 7/29. Guess I could miss some run up, but I'd love to get called out of those shares at ~$5/share gain plus the premium for some cash I had sitting around.
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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to SF2004 • 3:26p, 7/26/22
Day is still young. See what they look like in the morning. Whispers are many in DC, and my guess is someone will get a bug on what the Fed is gonna do. Also, wait for their guidance.

That may have more impact anyway.

Now, if it's an OTM put, you may close cause the IV crush will nail you. The notion of market pricing in a small miss vs a big one?!? Hardly. If the miss was priced in, wouldn't they have just lowered the expected targets on EPS and revenue?!?
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3:30p, 7/26/22
Ranger222
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3:33p, 7/26/22
AG
Congrats! GOOGL is now at the same price as it was.....*checks notes*......yesterday at close!
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Lake08
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3:35p, 7/26/22
Other than the regular posters that post their day trader action, this board is pure negative
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ProgN
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 3:38p, 7/26/22
BaylorSpineGuy said:
Day is still young. See what they look like in the morning. Whispers are many in DC, and my guess is someone will get a bug on what the Fed is gonna do. Also, wait for their guidance.

That may have more impact anyway.

Now, if it's an OTM put, you may close cause the IV crush will nail you. The notion of market pricing in a small miss vs a big one?!? Hardly. If the miss was priced in, wouldn't they have just lowered the expected targets on EPS and revenue?!?
GOOG stopped giving forward guidance a long time ago.
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Brian Earl Spilner
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In reply to SF2004 • 3:43p, 7/26/22
AG
SF2004 said:
I buy two lotto puts on $google and it rocket ships to the moon on a miss.

LOL!
I think the SNAP hit from last week was still affecting it and more catastrophic news on ad revenue was priced in.
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GreasenUSA
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In reply to Lake08 • 3:44p, 7/26/22
AG
Lake08 said:
Other than the regular posters that post their day trader action, this board is pure negative
bearish does not = negative
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$30,000 Millionaire
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3:52p, 7/26/22
AG
I think what you're seeing with these ERs is "this is not as bad as it could have been, whew" reactions.

Fed is tomorrow.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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Lake08
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In reply to GreasenUSA • 3:52p, 7/26/22
GreasenUSA said:
Lake08 said:
Other than the regular posters that post their day trader action, this board is pure negative
bearish does not = negative


For some maybe. I am overall bearish on the market short term. However, some of these reports are pretty solid based on the haircut they've already taken.
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YNWA_AG
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3:54p, 7/26/22
AG
Msft went green
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ProgN
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In reply to YNWA_AG • 5:07p, 7/26/22
YNWA_AG said:
Msft went green
MSFT is flying

ETA:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/26/microsoft-msft-earnings-q4-2022.html
Quote:
Microsoft turned in the slowest revenue growth since 2020, at 12% year over year in the quarter, which ended on June 30, according to a statement. The company's earnings per share fell short of consensus for the first time since 2016, with net income rising 2% to $16.74 billion.

With respect to guidance, Microsoft called for $49.25 billion to $50.25 billion in fiscal first-quarter revenue. The middle of the range, at $49.75 billion, implies about 10% revenue growth, reflecting worsening PC sales and slower cloud infrastructure growth. Analysts polled by Refinitiv had expected more, at $51.49 billion. But for the new 2023 fiscal year, the company reiterated its forecast from three months ago, despite the economic climate.

"We continue to expect double digit revenue and operating income growth in constant currency and U.S. dollars," Amy Hood, Microsoft's finance chief, said on a conference call with analysts. She said Microsoft would lengthen the useful life of server and networking equipment to six years from four years. The company made a similar move in 2020.

In the fiscal fourth quarter, the biggest challenge stemmed from worsening foreign-exchange rates. Microsoft said that reduced revenue by $595 million and earnings by 4 cents per share. In June, Microsoft reduced its quarterly income and revenue guidance guidance for income and revenue just because of rate fluctuations. Revenue and income for the quarter came in at the low end of the ranges that Microsoft had put forward in June.
Their guidance wasn't horrible so that's why it's popping.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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6:24p, 7/26/22
AG
$URA looks constructive
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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BaylorSpineGuy
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7:43p, 7/26/22
Just a quick eyeball at the GOOG chart, it looks like it's gonna backtest the breakdown of that bear flag. Failure to hold that will likely result in lower lows. If it backrests and holds, it's back into that channel.
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ProgN
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 7:51p, 7/26/22
BaylorSpineGuy said:
Just a quick eyeball at the GOOG chart, it looks like it's gonna backtest the breakdown of that bear flag. Failure to hold that will likely result in lower lows. If it backrests and holds, it's back into that channel.
Free advice, I wouldn't play puts or short GOOG with their price action AH today.
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Brian Earl Spilner
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 8:07p, 7/26/22
AG
BaylorSpineGuy said:
Just a quick eyeball at the GOOG chart, it looks like it's gonna backtest the breakdown of that bear flag. Failure to hold that will likely result in lower lows. If it backrests and holds, it's back into that channel.


Can you expand? I don't follow.
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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to ProgN • 8:18p, 7/26/22
Wouldn't dare.

Just eyeballing that chart. And seeing what price might do.

This is a horrible drawing but I tried to outline the bear flag in blue. The breakdown below can be seen and the AH rally looks like an attempt to reclaim that channel.

Just an observation.
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ProgN
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In reply to Brian Earl Spilner • 8:18p, 7/26/22
FWIW, I wouldn't worry about being long GOOG after today and I'd definitely not buy puts or short it.
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ProgN
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 8:34p, 7/26/22
Here's what I got from their AH action today. They missed on all parameters and issued no guidance, yet they never went negative. They stayed green. They traded 28M shares during trading hours, but traded an additional 7M shares AH, which is significant. If the Fed were to raise 100BP tomorrow and the GDP comes in at -10%, I'd plow into it with gusto on any weakness and BTFD. There's no longer the worry of reporting bad earnings until October so that's like insurance and like Bonfire (IIRC) has said, they're printing money. IDGAF what the technicals look like right now because this thing will fly.

I hate posting options I'm looking at, but if the market craters and GOOG sells off, I'm looking at 1/23 and 3/23 calls on any weakness. JMO.
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Lake08
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8:47p, 7/26/22
God forbid we have negative action….
Market up big tomorrow. GOOG up 10%
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$30,000 Millionaire
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9:18p, 7/26/22
AG
Last couple of fed meetings, this has been the script:

  • Gap up and some upward morning trading
  • Give up morning gains to trade flat
  • Doldrums until the fed announcement / presser
  • Trap move down 50-100 points
  • Recover par value and then soar 50-100 points
  • Close on or near highs
  • Gap up and sell off the next day
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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Lake08
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 9:27p, 7/26/22
$30,000 Millionaire said:
Last couple of fed meetings, this has been the script:

  • Gap up and some upward morning trading
  • Give up morning gains to trade flat
  • Doldrums until the fed announcement / presser
  • Trap move down 50-100 points
  • Recover par value and then soar 50-100 points
  • Close on or near highs
  • Gap up and sell off the next day



Could be. No ones guess. I say +4% rally this week. AAPL/AMZN hit their numbers.
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FJ43
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9:38p, 7/26/22
Howdy Gents!

Didn't get comfortable to drive trade on yesterdays range so skipped. Haven't been able to trade other than a quick one this morning. Was between meetings and wasn't expecting to enter and exit so quick or would have posted. Took half off with the move then decided to take the rest off and move along.

Anyway tomorrow is a new day. Will try another one in next few days. If I find a setup or two one evenings I'll post a chart.


Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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Charismatic Megafauna
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9:45p, 7/26/22
AG
Hopefully sell my goog weeklies in the morning and maybe crwd weeklies (those may be too far gone), if there's a sell the news dip get into ostk spreads expiring next week
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$30,000 Millionaire
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In reply to Lake08 • 9:56p, 7/26/22
AG
They're heavily inflation dependent, apple especially. I'm not going to bet on it.

In conditions like this, I trade levels. Above 3850 I'm bullish leaning, below I'm not. Above 3960, I think 4050 is a good target. I bet we touch 3850 soon.

You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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Buck Compton
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 10:11p, 7/26/22
AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:
They're heavily inflation dependent, apple especially. I'm not going to bet on it.

In conditions like this, I trade levels. Above 3850 I'm bullish leaning, below I'm not. Above 3960, I think 4050 is a good target. I bet we touch 3850 soon.

The revenue growth assumptions priced into Apple make no sense given smartphone and computer sales and a big chunk of pull-forward revenue being reflected in 2021 and 2022. Pandemic stimulus bull**** lead to monster hardware sales that are disappearing.

Not a stock I would plan on being long for any significant period of time until the inflation/recession battle is more settled. They're going to continue to struggle topline for awhile, even if iPhone sales can steady and services can boom. Don't think they'll shed enough opex to make it profitable.

I won't comment on technical, but the fundamentals of Apple don't make sense as a growth play.
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irish pete ag06
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In reply to irish pete ag06 • 11:10p, 7/26/22
AG
irish pete ag06 said:
irish pete ag06 said:


Played tiny... snagged a 303P on QQQ early in the day. Sold half at 100% rode the other down to about a 400% victory. Was probably the most stress free trading day I've just about ever had.

Just base hits you moron, it's that simple.


At Jamaica Beach RV Resort. Made 2 scalps. One laying down relaxing and one on the crapper. In and out. Best way for me.




Still at the red neck haven of Jamaica Beaxh RV Resort.

Played a QQQ call early and cut it for loss. Flipped to puts after a retest of former support and made it back plus some.
I'm proud today of not holding that first play too long and then averaging down, etc. I made a semi-decisive cut and moved on.


3 green in a row.

+0.84% on the day.

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BaylorSpineGuy
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5:15a, 7/27/22


SAVA at $15 right now. Down 30%.
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austinAG90
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7:16a, 7/27/22
AG
IT IS FED DAY...75 is Baked In....All About the Presser...Hawkish or Dovish Spin

Overnight equities are higher as Microsoft, Google and Texas Instruments came out with good earnings and a positive outlook....at one point S+P futures were up 45 points while the Nasdaq futures were up over 200... Those now stand at up 32 and up 161... Bonds have surprisingly had some good buying in 5 year futures, but ranges are muted until 2 PM today...

Powell... Will he be hawkish or dovish??... We set forth two scenarios as the 75 rate hike is baked in... Again if Powell is not going to be hawkish his window for that opportunity is limited... The economy is slowing down and while many will argue for a recession (Roubini is the most negative economist since Henry Kaufman), the jury is out...

Scenario 1... Powell is hawkish... Will not mention 2% inflation goal, which is absurd at this time with CPI over 9%, but we expect him to be determined to have inflation as his number one goal to fight... He will not limit himself to 50 in September and if he is not cornered he should avoid the discussion... The Fed put is dead for the short term... His biggest worry should be 10 years under 3%... That is a stimulant for housing as we push 2.80 and lower... But the irony is that the more aggressive the Fed gets, the more recession fears increase... The more that recession fears increase, the more inverted the curve becomes... The more inverted means lower 10 year yields... The lower 10 year yields means lower mortgage costs.. Then the cycle starts again...

Scenario 2...Powell is dovish... He references lower prices in energy and a slower economy... He tries to use the word transitory without defining it... Transitory has always been correct, it is just not a 3 month cycle, but more like 2 years.. One of our traders sent us an analysis of money supply and inflation this morning, according to that analysis, inflation should revert to the 3 handles by June 2023... We agree with the direction and have always said that money supply is an important part of the inflation scenario..

Outlook... Fade the first move after the presser.. The real moves will start in London time tomorrow and accelerate with GDP... If GDP was good tomorrow they would have not scheduled Yellen to talk about in a press conference tomorrow... They would have had Biden do the presser... But given it is Yellen we think it will be bad... And while the situation continues to get worse in Europe, we think the ECB will be lucky to get another 50-100 off before Europe sinks into severe recession... Putin is squeezing the gas pipeline and sentiment is awful... So no matter what Powell says or how he says it, we think the 2.71 line in the sand of 10 years will be broken by the end of the week... We would rather see higher rates, but as our teachers in trading over the years have always emphasized, markets will always go to where it hurts the most positions... So that would be significantly lower rates and a more inverted curve...
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Bonfire1996
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7:22a, 7/27/22
AG
I predicted a 50 bp inversion by Thanksgiving, the most in 40 years. I'm going to feel pretty good about myself if that hits.
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 7:33a, 7/27/22
BaylorSpineGuy said:


SAVA at $15 right now. Down 30%.

This is about the investigation that started August 2021, after the complaints of two doctors working with shorts. It's still a very risky investment, but they've allowed Ph2 & 3 trials to continue while this investigation has officially been open. This feels like another hit piece to me.
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