I may or may not be there tomorrow as well. We are parking now. Third time this week. Cheap entertainment for the kids!

BREwmaster said:

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The best trade was the morning, going with the break of the uptrend. Once it broke below it I entered puts. But there was the new LOD at noon central. Here's what I did, and a 3rd spot where I would've re-entered, if I had still been at the computer.



I need to scalp 100% of the time, suits me!

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Good work, don't like low of day entry, but if you just play patterns, bear flags after bear flag, etc. I would enter in these locations if you didn't just ride them down, and add on bear flags. No real reason to exit after first entry unless you are in shorter term options.

good points. Yeah I was in Monday exp, so I wanted to exit on the first big drop, but I could've held some and just set a stop to protect profits (I need to do that more often). I did re-enter while it was consolidating. I like that noon entry only b/c it is below a key level (Mancini's levels) with room to go to the next level 3930's. and it had been bear flagging before that drop, but I certainly understand your point there.

All good, nice trade, worked well for you, and understand taking profit with Monday expiration. Was just trying to show, how you identified the trend break at the top, but you entered low of day at that time. You want to get in on the break, these things can bounce hard back the other way when entering low of day. Having Mancini levels does help you though. But you see your first entry went against you right away, which is fine, but if you catch the break you identified, that bounce doesn't bother you.

BREwmaster said:

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The best trade was the morning, going with the break of the uptrend. Once it broke below it I entered puts. But there was the new LOD at noon central. Here's what I did, and a 3rd spot where I would've re-entered, if I had still been at the computer.



I need to scalp 100% of the time, suits me!

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I know everybody needs to practice their own risk management, but how do you trade these? In regards to delta, stop loss, etc. Thanks in advance.

It suits me too man... If I had have just stuck to scalping, I would not have cut my account in half again this past week. What's silly is before I did that, I had already scalped 1% green into my account that day. Should just walk away every day once that's hit.

I like scalping and I'm OK at it, but it only works if you're excellent at risk control.

You have to be multi dimensional to succeed.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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I talked to a PE partner from a major firm today about taking an advisory position with some of their equities. They wanted some info out of me. The entire conversation was about Infrastructure as a Service, SIEM, SASE, and advanced threat protection. Look for unicorns in this space. It's where the next "Amazon" will come from.

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Good to know!

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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I like scalping and I'm OK at it, but it only works if you're excellent at risk control.

You have to be multi dimensional to succeed.

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By multi-dimensional do you mean neither bear nor bull or deeper than that?

And yes I agree. When I was at my best on my winning streak I was not averaging down much at all. I was in and out usually in one 5 minute bar, maybe 2. Playing on the 1 minute time frame usually. I guess that qualifies as scalping.

I also day trade. I just have to make sure and not turn losing day trades into swings.

By multi-dimensional I mean being able to trade long, short, sideways, intraday, swing, long term, and you need to be able to trade multiple products.

I expect downward motion this coming week. We have the fed coming.

So, is the Fed tightening or not? Is this the way to judge that? Certainly looks like they aren't tightening.

lobwedgephil said:

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All good, nice trade, worked well for you, and understand taking profit with Monday expiration. Was just trying to show, how you identified the trend break at the top, but you entered low of day at that time. You want to get in on the break, these things can bounce hard back the other way when entering low of day. Having Mancini levels does help you though. But you see your first entry went against you right away, which is fine, but if you catch the break you identified, that bounce doesn't bother you.

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great tips, thank you sir! yeah it model T'd that sharp drop right away.

Vermont is about as disconnected from reality as you can get. Nice area, especially lake Champlain bay n Burlington.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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I'm at a target in Vermont and the workers are talking about shorting GME. Bottom not in.

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Is this sarcasm?

Lake08 said:

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$30,000 Millionaire said:

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I'm at a target in Vermont and the workers are talking about shorting GME. Bottom not in.

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Is this sarcasm?

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No

Ragoo said:

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Vermont is about as disconnected from reality as you can get. Nice area, especially lake Champlain bay n Burlington.

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It's beautiful.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4524959-better-buy-mplx-9-3-percent-yield-or-enterprise-products-7-4-percent?mailingid=28488099&messageid=must_reads&serial=28488099.2027915&source=email_must_reads&utm_campaign=Must+Read+July+24%2C+2022&utm_content=seeking_alpha&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=must_reads

This is interesting for anyone looking to capture dividends.

$NDX Since 2002

When Nasdaq 100 cycles fewer than 10% of stocks above their 150-DMA to 25% above their 150-DMA, the BOTTOM has been made.$SPX was higher 1-year later 100% of the time

Avg. 1-yr return = 27%
Max drawdown = 11%
Avg drawdwon = 5%
Avg days drawdown =30 $QQQ $SPY pic.twitter.com/tOfnLYZkIq

— Seth Golden (@SethCL) July 24, 2022

Looks like we'll open green here. No clue what will happen, but if I had to guess we'll see sideways or low volume chop and even muted reactions to earnings until FOMC on Wednesday.

🇺🇸FEDERAL RESERVE THIS WEEK:

*FED INTEREST RATE DECISION (WED. 2:00PM ET)
*FED FOMC STATEMENT (WED. 2:00PM ET)
*FED FOMC ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS (WED. 2:00PM ET)
*FED CHAIR POWELL SPEAKS (WED. 2:30PM ET)$DIA $SPY $QQQ $VIX pic.twitter.com/yIgsVFg3Rt

— Investing.com (@Investingcom) July 24, 2022

Friday candle looks a bit like a tweezer top if we're trying to pick a direction.

I need to change my password or something until wed. Until then my mantra is "the first move is fake... the real move starts 18 hours later..."

If QQQ breaks down from 300.75 with conviction i think it will be a red day.

texagbeliever said:

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If QQQ breaks down from 300.75 with conviction i think it will be a red day.

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Broke down. And broke 300. See what the market does here.

July 22, 2022 Weekly update BOA private bank

Generally a good week in the financial markets with both stocks and bond posting positive
returns. On the stock side, the S&P 500 rose 2.5%. We are in the early stages of earnings
season and so far earnings are holding up reasonably well. Returns abroad were higher with the
MSCI EAFE index up approximately 5.4% and emerging markets up 2.7%. Bonds rallied as
there continues to be evidence that the economy is slowing to more sustainable levels and the
Fed is approaching the end of their catch-up phase in increasing interest rates. The yield on the
10-year Treasury fell 18 basis points to 2.75%. Municipal bond yields were unchanged for the
week at approximately 2.98. Still well above Treasury yields despite their tax advantages. Below
investment grade corporate bond yields fell approximately 51 basis points to 8.17%.
We are seeing a slowing economy and signs that inflation has peaked. This week we got reports
on various parts of the housing market. Significantly higher mortgage rates versus just a few
months ago have put a damper on home prices and the demand for new homes.

New claims for unemployment insurance drifted up again this week. Claims are still at a very
low level, but are now worth watching more closely. For the first time since late 2021, we are
seeing some lay-offs. The number is low and concentrated in the start-up technology industry,
it deserves close attention going forward. Essentially, we are on recession watch. The labor
market remains quite strong, but this is where economic troubles first become evident.

The larger banks reported earning over the last 10 days. It's interesting to note that many of the
safeguards put in place after the great recession of 2008-2009 seem to be working. through
the first 4 months of 2022, no US bank had failed and required a financial bailout from the
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). There have been less than 10 banks that have
failed in each of the last 7 calendar years, i.e., 2015-2021. 389 banks failed over the 3-year
period 2009-2011 (source: FDIC).
The Federal Open Market Committee meets this week and is expected to raise interest rates by
75 basis points on Wednesday. Most of the focus will be on Fed Chair Powell's press conference
on Wednesday afternoon. He has not been very clear in recent months, so it will be hard to
predict how the press conference will go.
We also have the first report on Second quarter GDP and inflation as measured by the Personal
Consumption Expenditures index. This is the Fed's favorite inflation measure.

Charismatic Megafauna said:

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I need to change my password or something until wed. Until then my mantra is "the first move is fake... the real move starts 18 hours later..."

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*but if we can tag 388.5 i will buy a couple expiring xsp calls

GOOG has been trading tight in 108.5-109 range since 9:25.

texagbeliever said:

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GOOG has been trading tight in 108.5-109 range since 9:25.

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Which way we gonna go? Ive been scalping calls and puts on it since the split but ive got nothing right now on which way its going to go

Yep, and SPY stuck between 395-395.60. 4 candles above 395.40 on the minute chart in same timeframe. Imagine the SELL button is stuck on 395.40.

Decent sell across the board there on the tech stocks. GOOG is below that 108.5

AMZN has a new LOD. AAPL is close to LOD.

I closed down at 10:00. SPX and QQQ have been choppy, but RSI says they've been trading bearish. I see a bearish divergence on QQQ as well. TSLA looks like it's trading a bit bullish, but I don't know how much room it'll have to run with market uncertainty. I'm up ~$50 for the day scalping TSLA calls and puts, which is better than being in the red I guess. Still waiting for a direction.

GOOG below 108. Think this is really on AAPL to decide if it wants to hold QQQ at that 300.75 level or not.

TSLA at 810. This was support around 10am. May not hold if AAPL keeps trading down.