Yes it was a good day. Normally my goal is 1%-2% in a day, which is not always achieved of course.
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Last: 17 hrs ago by Heineken-Ashi
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As predicted, we have a continuation of trend. It even broke the previously yellow short term trend line which I now label red. The new short term line has adjusted to the next target above. I've added the light green lower trend line to guide.Heineken-Ashi said:
SPX - There's a likely reversal of trend. Could last a couple candles, could last a while. If we get a continuation of trend with no lower wicks that breaks the yellow trend line, game on.
https://i.imgur.com/BgruXcu.jpg
When viewing the market through beer candles, you have to understand that each candle opens at the halfway point of the previous candle and represents the average of the current time period's action.
Open = 1/2(open of previous bar + close of previous bar)
Close = 1/4(Open + High + Low + Close)
High = Max of high, open, and close.
Low = Min of low, open, and close.
A strong trend up will be green or unfilled and have no lower wicks. Opposite for strong downward trend. A candle with a wick on both sides is around a 75% signal that a reversal of trend is either imminent or soon to be.
Previous days like Friday (reversal candle without a preceding double wick candle and looking like a strong upward trend green candle) have usually involved another 2-4 days of continuation of trend during this years chart.
So the beer candles have spoken and point to at hopefully, at least half a week of continuation upward. If any day ends with a red candle, a bottom wick, or a double wick, your best to exit your short to mid term longs and wait for confirmation of new trend or resumption of current trend.
This has been your daily dose of uncompromising, premium, pure tasting SPX outlook.
https://www.aspris.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Heineken-330ml-scaled.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/BTwIWIv.png
We follow the trend until it ends. Cheers.
https://www.aspris.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Heineken-330ml-scaled.jpg
for the rook...
You know why Heineken is in a green bottle right? to skunk the beer on purpose. Light interacts with hop compounds and produces the "skunk", but to each their own! .
You know why Heineken is in a green bottle right? to skunk the beer on purpose. Light interacts with hop compounds and produces the "skunk", but to each their own! .
It actually rejected that trend line, basically to the penny. To continue the trend as you say, need to break it, and hold above it.
Ragoo said:it was great. We had a lot of fun. Just spouses. Met up with other college friend couples for a wedding in the middle but got a lot of sightseeing and food consumption done along the way.ProgN said:
How's Portugal with the family and Gougler's family going?
Ate and drank probably more than the last month combined but would definitely recommend Portugal for anyone traveling. Inexpensive overall and great sites in Lisbon and surrounding areas
Exactly. Your downtrend and SR same as I've posted. As of now the trend is still downward until breaks and confirms the downtrend lines. It rejected both the downtrend and price resistance level. We did not have continuation of Friday's move. Consolidation.... maybe, but needs to close above 390.52ish.lobwedgephil said:
It actually rejected that trend line, basically to the penny. To continue the trend as you say, need to break it, and hold above it.
Bullish (short term) if does but only to next major level. Watch the 50EMA if so. Hadn't closed above since 4/21.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
I went long on SPY at close. Will exit on open if any push. Will go short at 388ish range should it make it.
Will cut if goes above prior days high.
Will cut if goes above prior days high.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
Yes, it failed to break the trend line of SPY, the ETF that "aims" to track the the SPX at about 10% of the value.
Go look at my chart, which is SPX. Then zoom into the 1hr chart. It very clearly broke the trend line and then fell back under it to end the trading day. It very well could go down from there, so you are correct that it needs to break back above and stay there.
Go look at my chart, which is SPX. Then zoom into the 1hr chart. It very clearly broke the trend line and then fell back under it to end the trading day. It very well could go down from there, so you are correct that it needs to break back above and stay there.
Well done. I chickened out and sold my calls right after close.
Capitulation From Merrill??? Rates Steady as ECB Rumors of 50 Basis Make Rounds
Yesterday equities were doing well until the Apple slowdown talk came out... Semi hiring freeze and worries about a slowdown sapped the markets enthusiasm... Equity markets are better today, looking very similar to 24 hours ago... The move happened about 4 am when the S+P futures rallied from 3834 to 3872, 38 points.. Catalyst, from our perspective was the Merrill report that we sent earlier that equities had capitulated... While we may question the timing of the announcement, the Merrill report from Harnett was quite clear..we quote from the BB article
" Investors slashed their exposure to risk assets to levels not seen even during the global financial crisis in a sign of full CAPITULATION amid a "dire" economic outlook, according to Bank of America Corp.'s monthly fund manager survey.
Global growth and profit expectations sank to an all-time low, while recession expectations were at their highest since the pandemic-fueled slowdown in May 2020, strategists led by Michael Hartnett wrote in the note. Investor allocation to stocks plunged to levels last seen in October 2008 while exposure to cash surged to the highest since 2001, according to the survey. A net 58% of fund managers said they're taking lower than normal risks, a record that surpassed the survey's global financial crisis levels."
We were just asked from a client why we think that capitalization is a good thing... Answer because it means the selling is near the end and the outlook for these under-weighted fund managers, next move will be to buy...Merrill said that their customs bull and bear indicator remains "MAX BEARISH" . We are not saying to go out and buy and the end is absolutely over, but there is a light at the end of the tunnel... And the 3720 level we saw last week is holding for now... 3500 still would not surprise us, but if it happens it will be in August.
Rates... IS THE RATE MARKET ACTUALLY OPEN?... It is a vacation week and most of the US is hotter than Hades... Even Europe can not catch a break from the heat... Fortunately we are in one of the coolest places where it is only 71 right now with an expected high of 87, but a nice breeze off the ocean... We have a spare bedroom... Back to rates... 70% of volumes and very much range bound... 10 years traded overnight from a low of 2.95 at 3 am to a high yield of 2.99 at 3.30 am... Liquidity is poor as the liquidity infrastructure is broken by years of Central Bank interference. The curve is mildly steeper but still inverted... With the market hung up at 3.16 yield level for 2/3/30... Strange... With 20 years the highest yield and 10 years the lowest...
Rates 2... Can someone explain to us why the 10 year is the lowest yield on the active curve, by over 10 basis?... It makes no sense to us... In a real inversion the long bond would be the lowest yielding point... In a slowdown the 2 year should be the lowest yielding point... But why 10 years... Reuters shows us that the Japanese and Chinese have been selling treasuries... With Chinese holdings now down under 1 trillion, this is the lowest since May of 2010, over 12 years ago.. It is starting to look like the Chinese are selling treasuries to prop up their own economy... As a colleague said to us late yesterday, why don't they just buy the vaccine from the US and stop these shutdowns... BB has a great story that the wealthy Chinese are exiting to Canada, Singapore and the US to get away from lock-downs... But back to treasuries, we see that hedge funds have been big buyers as they are starting to think that treasuries are making sense given the slowdown and the reversal of rate hikes looking forward...investors based in the Cayman Islands (HF) bought 75.9 billion of treasuries in May, the most in 21 years... We still do not understand why the 10 year is the low yield... But for long term ranges it is continuing to look to us that the highs are in for most of the rate space with a big range of 2.71 to 3.50.
CREDIT IS BACK WITH A VENGEANCE... Good bank earnings caused a slew of issuance yesterday . JPM and Wells priced 13.5 billion of a total of 17.5 billion yesterday.. The most in 3 months. Orderbooks were 3 x... Which is good... And new issue concessions were back to 10 basis... Outstanding day for credit... But will it be sustained... Most think that those that needed money are in good shape in the IG space... HY may be a different story depending on how bad the economy slows, but we remain optimistic that no recession... A slowdown is currently in place, the housing sentiment number yesterday was one of the biggest drops ever... But today's lagging housing numbers are expected to look ok..
The Euro is rallying big time as Reuters broke a story overnight that the ECB may raise rates 50 in two days... Given how slow moving Laguarde is we question it... But all CB's seem to be moving in 50-75 rate hikes and BOC did do 100... Meanwhile the Euro held parity nicely, just look at the amount of options in vogue... And the Euro has now bounced to 1.025 and DXY has bounced off its recent high of 109 to be under 106.50 currently... We expect slow range bound trading until the Fed meeting next week... 75 for July..50-75 for September...
Yesterday equities were doing well until the Apple slowdown talk came out... Semi hiring freeze and worries about a slowdown sapped the markets enthusiasm... Equity markets are better today, looking very similar to 24 hours ago... The move happened about 4 am when the S+P futures rallied from 3834 to 3872, 38 points.. Catalyst, from our perspective was the Merrill report that we sent earlier that equities had capitulated... While we may question the timing of the announcement, the Merrill report from Harnett was quite clear..we quote from the BB article
" Investors slashed their exposure to risk assets to levels not seen even during the global financial crisis in a sign of full CAPITULATION amid a "dire" economic outlook, according to Bank of America Corp.'s monthly fund manager survey.
Global growth and profit expectations sank to an all-time low, while recession expectations were at their highest since the pandemic-fueled slowdown in May 2020, strategists led by Michael Hartnett wrote in the note. Investor allocation to stocks plunged to levels last seen in October 2008 while exposure to cash surged to the highest since 2001, according to the survey. A net 58% of fund managers said they're taking lower than normal risks, a record that surpassed the survey's global financial crisis levels."
We were just asked from a client why we think that capitalization is a good thing... Answer because it means the selling is near the end and the outlook for these under-weighted fund managers, next move will be to buy...Merrill said that their customs bull and bear indicator remains "MAX BEARISH" . We are not saying to go out and buy and the end is absolutely over, but there is a light at the end of the tunnel... And the 3720 level we saw last week is holding for now... 3500 still would not surprise us, but if it happens it will be in August.
Rates... IS THE RATE MARKET ACTUALLY OPEN?... It is a vacation week and most of the US is hotter than Hades... Even Europe can not catch a break from the heat... Fortunately we are in one of the coolest places where it is only 71 right now with an expected high of 87, but a nice breeze off the ocean... We have a spare bedroom... Back to rates... 70% of volumes and very much range bound... 10 years traded overnight from a low of 2.95 at 3 am to a high yield of 2.99 at 3.30 am... Liquidity is poor as the liquidity infrastructure is broken by years of Central Bank interference. The curve is mildly steeper but still inverted... With the market hung up at 3.16 yield level for 2/3/30... Strange... With 20 years the highest yield and 10 years the lowest...
Rates 2... Can someone explain to us why the 10 year is the lowest yield on the active curve, by over 10 basis?... It makes no sense to us... In a real inversion the long bond would be the lowest yielding point... In a slowdown the 2 year should be the lowest yielding point... But why 10 years... Reuters shows us that the Japanese and Chinese have been selling treasuries... With Chinese holdings now down under 1 trillion, this is the lowest since May of 2010, over 12 years ago.. It is starting to look like the Chinese are selling treasuries to prop up their own economy... As a colleague said to us late yesterday, why don't they just buy the vaccine from the US and stop these shutdowns... BB has a great story that the wealthy Chinese are exiting to Canada, Singapore and the US to get away from lock-downs... But back to treasuries, we see that hedge funds have been big buyers as they are starting to think that treasuries are making sense given the slowdown and the reversal of rate hikes looking forward...investors based in the Cayman Islands (HF) bought 75.9 billion of treasuries in May, the most in 21 years... We still do not understand why the 10 year is the low yield... But for long term ranges it is continuing to look to us that the highs are in for most of the rate space with a big range of 2.71 to 3.50.
CREDIT IS BACK WITH A VENGEANCE... Good bank earnings caused a slew of issuance yesterday . JPM and Wells priced 13.5 billion of a total of 17.5 billion yesterday.. The most in 3 months. Orderbooks were 3 x... Which is good... And new issue concessions were back to 10 basis... Outstanding day for credit... But will it be sustained... Most think that those that needed money are in good shape in the IG space... HY may be a different story depending on how bad the economy slows, but we remain optimistic that no recession... A slowdown is currently in place, the housing sentiment number yesterday was one of the biggest drops ever... But today's lagging housing numbers are expected to look ok..
The Euro is rallying big time as Reuters broke a story overnight that the ECB may raise rates 50 in two days... Given how slow moving Laguarde is we question it... But all CB's seem to be moving in 50-75 rate hikes and BOC did do 100... Meanwhile the Euro held parity nicely, just look at the amount of options in vogue... And the Euro has now bounced to 1.025 and DXY has bounced off its recent high of 109 to be under 106.50 currently... We expect slow range bound trading until the Fed meeting next week... 75 for July..50-75 for September...
Looks like we were thinking the same thing.FJ43 said:
I went long on SPY at close. Will exit on open if any push. Will go short at 388ish range should it make it.
Will cut if goes above prior days high.
Help me understand for a moment - in the news and in the numbers we see inflation at 9.1%
After a week traveling Houston-heathrow-Lisbon-Philadelphia-Houston. Every airport was packed. Every city was packed. Lines and restaurants outs the door. Lines at museums and sites out the door.
It seems like reality is very different from the news. I don't see people adjusting for recession. It is full gas in the real world.
After a week traveling Houston-heathrow-Lisbon-Philadelphia-Houston. Every airport was packed. Every city was packed. Lines and restaurants outs the door. Lines at museums and sites out the door.
It seems like reality is very different from the news. I don't see people adjusting for recession. It is full gas in the real world.
I wonder if people are so ready to get back to normal after COVID that they refuse to give up the opportunity, no matter the cost. My business typically slows in summers as people go on vacation, but it did not the last two years when everyone stayed home. This summer it did slow.Ragoo said:
Help me understand for a moment - in the news and in the numbers we see inflation at 9.1%
After a week traveling Houston-heathrow-Lisbon-Philadelphia-Houston. Every airport was packed. Every city was packed. Lines and restaurants outs the door. Lines at museums and sites out the door.
It seems like reality is very different from the news. I don't see people adjusting for recession. It is full gas in the real world.
There's 0 doubt, people are still spending. The only thing that's changed is corporations slowing down investments, and of course the housing industry
If this comes to be, then we have begun to see inflation. The first link is paywalled but the second is a thread on F16 where the OP brought in some quotes from the article.
Biden considers issuing climate emergency declaration, sources say - The Washington Post
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Biden considers issuing climate emergency declaration, sources say - The Washington Post
Biden to declare climate emergency this week | TexAgs
Ragoo said:
Help me understand for a moment - in the news and in the numbers we see inflation at 9.1%
After a week traveling Houston-heathrow-Lisbon-Philadelphia-Houston. Every airport was packed. Every city was packed. Lines and restaurants outs the door. Lines at museums and sites out the door.
It seems like reality is very different from the news. I don't see people adjusting for recession. It is full gas in the real world.
I've noticed restaurants continually are under staffed which is creating wait times and longer lines. Still lots of people but suspect the turns per table are less. This seems to be the case across the South. Wonder if this is also true for other businesses. Retail stores I tend to see the same.
Airlines have reduced numbers of flights between cities to maximize load capacities but also shortages in pilot and crew.
I do see lots of spending though. Agree feels like full steam spending. Question is how much is on credit after pandemic shutdowns created false sense of having money in many bank accounts.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
FJ43 said:Ragoo said:
Help me understand for a moment - in the news and in the numbers we see inflation at 9.1%
After a week traveling Houston-heathrow-Lisbon-Philadelphia-Houston. Every airport was packed. Every city was packed. Lines and restaurants outs the door. Lines at museums and sites out the door.
It seems like reality is very different from the news. I don't see people adjusting for recession. It is full gas in the real world.
I've noticed restaurants continually are under staffed which is creating wait times and longer lines. Still lots of people but suspect the turns per table are less. This seems to be the case across the South. Wonder if this is also true for other businesses. Retail stores I tend to see the same.
Airlines have reduced numbers of flights between cities to maximize load capacities but also shortages in pilot and crew.
I do see lots of spending though. Agree feels like full steam spending. Question is how much is on credit after pandemic shutdowns created false sense of having money in many bank accounts.
Good points - I agree everywhere you go is packed. As far as money, I agree a lot of it is in credit, some people just haven't maxed out their cards yet with all the inflation.
Also, a lot of the vacations were planned 6-12 months ago coming out of Covid when everyone wanted to travel. I think inflation and high costs are slowing more future travel decisions.
Most of us our more frugal than your average American, but airfare has almost doubled in most cases, that alone has caused us to look at different options.
Heineken in Europe is a different beer. Headed to Italy this week (which isn't known for beer) so I'll be drinking some.
Took SPY calls off for 40%. Now going to watch.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
Thinking we come back down. MSFT & AMZN are trending toward their close. GOOG a little bit as well. TSLA & AAPL not looking great.
Looks like O&G are running at the open.
Update:
AAPL below close
TSLA below close
MSFT below close
Looks like O&G are running at the open.
Update:
AAPL below close
TSLA below close
MSFT below close
added a few QQQ 7/22 $285 puts. $1.36 entry Everything looking weak. putting a stop at $.80 cents.
Just went with 7/22 SPY 371 puts to scalp over the next few hours. Small entry as I think things will breakdown later today. I do not think it will get there, I'm just hunting.
Update: I went out as it climbed here. No loss except fees, looking to see if I can't wait until 389 hits and then jump back in.
Update: I went out as it climbed here. No loss except fees, looking to see if I can't wait until 389 hits and then jump back in.
Hit my first limit order of the day on UPRO for a quick +5.6% from yesterday's close.
Bought SPY 388P. Trade only.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
Followed with a few
Teleconference (774-267-2687) for TWTR hearing on expedited trial just starting. Might be a good weekly lotto play. If it gets expedited that's a W for TWTR stock.
fingers crossed. I added some more here at 0.87 cents.Danwell Home said:
Followed with a few
Yeah, I had initial buys at $1 and added more at $.84
And now the second for +6.3%. $650 profit total so far.Brian Earl Spilner said:
Hit my first limit order of the day on UPRO for a quick +5.6% from yesterday's close.
QQQ couldn't clear 296 yesterday. See if it is rejected again today.
because there are 8 billion people on the planet and you were visiting some of the largest cities in the world.Ragoo said:
Help me understand for a moment - in the news and in the numbers we see inflation at 9.1%
After a week traveling Houston-heathrow-Lisbon-Philadelphia-Houston. Every airport was packed. Every city was packed. Lines and restaurants outs the door. Lines at museums and sites out the door.
It seems like reality is very different from the news. I don't see people adjusting for recession. It is full gas in the real world.
now do "western Pennsylvania coal towns" and "Iowa farms"
$AMD going for that gap at 91?
cageybee77 said:
Heineken in Europe is a different beer. Headed to Italy this week (which isn't known for beer) so I'll be drinking some.
Drink Peroni, better than Heinestink.
Small H/S potentially forming on SPY...
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I'm not Ragoo.Quote:
because there are 8 billion people on the planet and you were visiting some of the largest cities in the world.
now do "western Pennsylvania coal towns" and "Iowa farms"
I don't live in the large population centers of western Pennsylvania and Iowa farms.
I do live in the 46th most populace State in the Union. Only North Dakota, Alaska, Vermont and Wyoming are smaller in population.
I concur with what Ragoo states from what I see in my own backyard.
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